John Chang
DALLAS MAVERICKS -2 over LA Lakers, 20 dimes UPGRADED TO 20 DIMES
Lovin' the Mavericks in these playoffs. Things are coming together, and they have the look of a team that damage the opposition in a variety of ways. The most prominent of those weapons is obviously Dirk Nowitzki, who I've been raving about this postseason. His performances in the playoffs have been impressively consistent, and the Lakers continue to fail to show me that they can cut him down. The task won't get any easier tonight in Dallas without NBA Citizenship Award recipient Ron Artest. Artest is a physical presence who contributes on both ends, and the Lakers are going to miss him dearly tonight. LA is having a terribly difficult time getting consistent offensive production. The 7 foot monsters of Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood have taken away the usually reliable production of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, and the Lakers' outside shooting hasn't been able to bail them out. Let's hope the "Trust Issues" of LA don't go away anytime soon. Lay the home chalk.
LA Dodgers (+110, list both pitchers) over NY Mets, 5 dimes
It's usually a good idea to back Hiroki Kuroda. This hurler from the far east is only getting better with age, and he's started off this season with some solid numbers. He's getting a good draw today against Niese, whose starts have only led to wins for his team in 2 out of the last 10 appearances. He's struggled with control and pitch selection thus far, and I look for that to continue today. The only thing that has me slightly worried is LA's bullpen, but I expect the Dodgers' hitters to get out to an early lead, and for Kuroda to hold a lead deep into the game.
San Jose Sharks +120 over DETROIT RED WINGS, 5 dimes
There's a reason why only three NHL teams have ever come back from a 3-zip deficit in the playoffs. Winning four hockey games in a row is difficult at any point in the season, even if that team is clicking on all cylinders. Right now, Detroit is hardly doing that. San Jose has won each of these three games by only a goal, but they seem to have the Wings' number. They're sharper in every phase of the game, especially in special teams. I expect Detroit to play with broken spirits tonight, even knowing that it might be the last game for the aging stars Nik Lidstrom and Mike Modano. San Jose has won 8 out of their last 10 games, and they are owners of a sharp 12-3 run in their last 15 in the underdog role. Let's take this nice value with the road team.
DALLAS MAVERICKS -2 over LA Lakers, 20 dimes UPGRADED TO 20 DIMES
Lovin' the Mavericks in these playoffs. Things are coming together, and they have the look of a team that damage the opposition in a variety of ways. The most prominent of those weapons is obviously Dirk Nowitzki, who I've been raving about this postseason. His performances in the playoffs have been impressively consistent, and the Lakers continue to fail to show me that they can cut him down. The task won't get any easier tonight in Dallas without NBA Citizenship Award recipient Ron Artest. Artest is a physical presence who contributes on both ends, and the Lakers are going to miss him dearly tonight. LA is having a terribly difficult time getting consistent offensive production. The 7 foot monsters of Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood have taken away the usually reliable production of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, and the Lakers' outside shooting hasn't been able to bail them out. Let's hope the "Trust Issues" of LA don't go away anytime soon. Lay the home chalk.
LA Dodgers (+110, list both pitchers) over NY Mets, 5 dimes
It's usually a good idea to back Hiroki Kuroda. This hurler from the far east is only getting better with age, and he's started off this season with some solid numbers. He's getting a good draw today against Niese, whose starts have only led to wins for his team in 2 out of the last 10 appearances. He's struggled with control and pitch selection thus far, and I look for that to continue today. The only thing that has me slightly worried is LA's bullpen, but I expect the Dodgers' hitters to get out to an early lead, and for Kuroda to hold a lead deep into the game.
San Jose Sharks +120 over DETROIT RED WINGS, 5 dimes
There's a reason why only three NHL teams have ever come back from a 3-zip deficit in the playoffs. Winning four hockey games in a row is difficult at any point in the season, even if that team is clicking on all cylinders. Right now, Detroit is hardly doing that. San Jose has won each of these three games by only a goal, but they seem to have the Wings' number. They're sharper in every phase of the game, especially in special teams. I expect Detroit to play with broken spirits tonight, even knowing that it might be the last game for the aging stars Nik Lidstrom and Mike Modano. San Jose has won 8 out of their last 10 games, and they are owners of a sharp 12-3 run in their last 15 in the underdog role. Let's take this nice value with the road team.
STAN THE MAN’S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 5/6/11
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
*** 2011 NBA ATS PLAYOFF UPDATE ***
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The Celtics and Lakers met in last year’s NBA Finals. It was the 12th all-time meeting for the league's two most storied franchises. Boston won the first eight meetings (the first seven of which came no later than 1969), LA the next two ('85 and '87) and then after a 21-season gap, the Celtics made it 9-2 all-time vs the Lakers by winning the title in 2008. LA closed the gap to 9-3 in favor of Boston by winning the title in 2010. Boston’s won 17 titles in 21 appearances in the NBA Finals while LA captured its 16th NBA championship in its 31st appearance in The Finals last year. However, the big story heading into Friday’s and the weekend's games, is that both Boston and LA are down 2-0 in their respective series.
Only four teams have ever come back from a 2-0 series deficit in the conference semifinals and won the series. The list includes the Rockets over the Suns in both 1994 and 1995, the Lakers over the Spurs in 2004 and the Spurs over the Hornets in 2008. This is now the ninth time Boston has fallen behind 0-2 in a best-of-seven series in its playoff history and the Celtics have gone on to win just ONE of those previous eight series (over the LA Lakers in the 1969 NBA Finals). While Boston returns home after falling behind 0-2, the Lakers travel to Dallas after losing the first two games on their home court. Only three teams in NBA playoff history have come back to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first two at home. Ironically, Dallas is the most recent NBA team to win a series after losing the first two games at home, doing it in 2005 vs the Rockets. Phil Jackson coached teams have been down 0-2 in a seven-game series seven times before, coming back to win just twice.
Home teams are 4-4 SU and ATS in the second round, giving them a 36-15 SU and 21-27-3 ATS in the 2011 playoffs to-date. Home dogs are 7-4-1, so that leaves home favorites 14-23-2 ATS and all favorites an even worse, 18-30-3 ATS. After under bettors went 26-17 (60.5 percent) in the first round, the first six games of the second round all went over but changed Wednesday night, as both games stayed well under the total. Under bettors are now 28-23. Followers of the Zig-Zag Theory were 14-18-3 ATS in the first round and after winning with Chicago but losing with LA, are 16-20-3 ATS (minus-6.0 net games) this postseason. Plays for the next set of four games would be on Atlanta and LA for Friday plus Memphis and Boston on Saturday.
ESPN get a doubleheader Friday night. The first game is Chicago at Atlanta, where the Bulls are favored by 2 1/2 points with a total of 178. LA is at Dallas (9:35 ET) with the Mavs favored by two points (187). Moving on to Saturday, it’s Oklahoma City at Memphis at 5:05 ET on ESPN and Miami at Boston at 8:05 ET on ABC. The Grizzlies are three-point favorites with a total of 200 and the Celtics three-point favorites with a total of 183.
"Enjoy, and as always the very best of luck, from all of us here at Stat/Systems Sports”
__________________________________________________ __________________
*** HAWKS HOST BULLS IN GAME 3 ON FRIDAY NIGHT ***
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The Atlanta Hawks play their franchise’s most significant home game since 1997 when they host Chicago in Game 3 of an Eastern Conference Semifinal series tied at 1-1. In that ’97 playoff season, the Bulls came into Atlanta tied 1-1, but proceeded to win the next three games as Michael Jordan eventually won his fifth NBA title. Atlanta has been able to put itself in a 1-1 scenario with an outstanding Game 1 win, 103-95. The Hawks shot 51.3% FG that night and were only out-rebounded 46-45. Wednesday’s Game 2 was much different story, as Atlanta made just 33.8% of its shots and was dominated on the glass, 67-44. Chicago won that game 86-73, holding the Hawks to 30 points below their Game 1 output.
The Bulls continue to be led by Derrick Rose, who scored a game-high 25 points in Game 2, but needed 27 shots to do so. Hawks backup point guard Jeff Teague, who is filling in for injured starter Kirk Hinrich, has done a great job in keeping Rose out of the paint and forcing the league MVP to settle for jump shots. Rose is shooting 21-for-54 (38.9% FG) in the series, and has only gotten to the line six times in the two games. Rose had 10 assists in Game 2, but turned the ball over eight times. Another star Chicago player struggling in the series has been Carlos Boozer, who has been bothered by a turf toe injury. Boozer is averaging 11.0 PPG on 43.5% FG in the series, which is well below his regular-season numbers of 17.5 PPG on 51.0% FG. The two Bulls that starred in Game 2 were Joakim Noah (19 points, 14 rebounds) and Luol Deng (14 points, 12 boards) who have been consistently great all season.
The Hawks will need much better performances from Jamal Crawford and Al Horford in Game 3 to take the series lead. Crawford scored just 11 points on 2-of-10 shooting in Game 2, while Horford scored six points, going 3-of-12 from the floor. Teague (5.2 PPG in regular season) led his team in scoring with 21 points (7-14 FG) in Game 2, while Joe Johnson continued his strong play in the postseason with 16 points on 7-of-15 shooting. Johnson had 34 points in Game 1 of this series and has connected on 46.2% of his three-pointers in this postseason.
Chicago has done a great job on the road this season, going 26-17 ATS (61.0%) as the visitor, while the Hawks are just 19-25 ATS (43.0%) at home this season. But the Bulls haven’t had recent success in Atlanta. After winning six straight games at Philips Arena from 2005 to 2007, Chicago lost its next five visits there. But the last meeting in Atlanta was complete dominance by the Bulls, who out-rebounded the Hawks 52-31 and out-shot them 54.4% to 45.3% in a 114-81 blowout win on March 22. We certainly don’t expect another lopsided win in Game 3, but we think Chicago will easily be able to cover the small spread, with another significant advantage on the boards.
The following Highly-Rated Stat/Sheets trends also back the Bulls on Friday night: CHICAGO is 31-13 ATS (70.5%, +16.7 Units) after playing a home game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 99.4, OPPONENT 88.3 - (Rating = 3*).
Our huge NBA data-base here at Stat/Systems Sports has more reasons to bet on Rose and the Bulls against the Hawks tonight, including these three Highly-Rated Super Situational Systems: PLAY ON - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(54-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (57-25 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 96.3, Opponent 92.6 (Average point differential = +3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (44.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (152-118).
• PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 75 points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(94-52 since 1996.) (64.4%, +36.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (117-35)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 95.6, Opponent 88 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 54 (36.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (32-20).
• PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(122-73 since 1996.) (62.6%, +41.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (145-54)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average score in these games was: Team 100.1, Opponent 94 (Average point differential = +6.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 65 (32.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (60-36).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (78-46).
Meanwhile both of these teams have played a lot of low-scoring games recently, as the Under is 9-4 in the past 13 Chicago games and 9-2 in the past 11 Atlanta contests. This Highly-Rated Stat/Sheets trend also likes the Under for Game 3: ATLANTA is 22-7 UNDER (75.9%, +14.3 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 86.4, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 3*).
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Any team (CHICAGO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(135-81 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +45.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.8
The average score in these games was: Team 96.9, Opponent 95.9 (Total points scored = 192.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 96 (44.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (17-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (96-59).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (338-299).
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*** LAKERS IN RARE UNDERDOG ROLE FOR GAME 3 IN DALLAS ***
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If panic and desperation were like pure gold, the Los Angeles Lakers could put Fort Knox out of business. Trailing 0-2 in their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal playoff series, the Lakers are by no means showing or sounding the profile of a team that has been to the NBA Finals three straight years. Andrew Bynum said after the Game 2 loss that his team has “trust issues” that are ”deeply rooted.” In somewhat of a response to that comment, Lakers great Magic Johnson tweeted on Thursday that Bynum should've kept his mouth shut. Kobe Bryant kept his mouth open as he tried to downplay the desperation angle. “Desperate, that's a strong word," Bryant said. "I think when you play desperate you don't play your best basketball. What we need to do is relax, focus on what we're doing wrong and the mistakes that we're making."
If focusing and relaxing is part of a new approach, the defending champions will have to incorporate it without forward Ron Artest for Game 3 on Friday night. Artest was suspended one game without pay for his foul on Mavericks guard Jose Juan Barea with 24.4 seconds remaining in Game 2. It was a senseless play at a meaningless point of a 93-81 defeat that could have a very meaningful impact on Game 3. When asked Wednesday night what he would do to get his team to snap out of its 0-2 funk, coach Phil Jackson jokingly suggested “flogging them.” If L.A. doesn’t pick up its performance Friday night from the very start, the Mavericks might do the flogging, and the whooping, themselves.
The Lakers have appeared to be lethargic at times and undone at others. In Game 2 they shot 41% from the floor and an atrocious 10% from beyond the arc. After Bryant, who had 23 points on 9-of-20 shooting, the guard play was highly insufficient as Derek Fisher scored just four points in 32 minutes, while backup Steve Blake went scoreless, and totaled one assist in 20 minutes of play. The Lakers bench shot 6-for-23 for the game, generating just 12 points. By comparison, Mavs reserve guard Barea nearly outscored the Lakers bench by himself. As it was, his 12 points led a Mavericks bench attack that outscored the Lake Show 30-12.
Barea weaved through the Lakers defense at will to create his own offense and to find open shooters, as the Mavericks high-screen-and-rolls with Dirk Nowitzki and Barea forced the Lakers big men to venture away from the hoop and defend in space, a defensive alternative they clearly were uncomfortable doing. Still, whatever Barea was executing was Plan B. Plan A for Dallas is still about getting Nowitzki unleashed, which Dallas was able to do again, as the big forward finished with 24 points and seven boards. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom have struggled to slow down Nowitzki. Meanwhile the big man combo of Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood has made the perceived advantage of Bynum and Gasol versus the Mavs less than daunting. While Bynum and Gasol both had double-doubles (18 points/13 boards and 13 points/10 rebounds respectively), Chandler and Haywood held their own, combining for 11 points and 15 boards.
Three times in NBA history a team has rallied back after losing the first two games on its home floor to win a best-of-seven series, so the task for the Lakers is not impossible. The bad news is that no team has ever come back to win a playoff series after trailing 3-0 in a series. “This series is far from over," Nowitzki said. "I've been up 2-0 before and ended up losing the series. We've seen a lot of things happen in this league so we've got to stay focused, stay together and let our home crowd ride us and get another great win."
History aside, if they do not start playing like a team that at least resembles world champions, this could be a very brutal Mother’s Day weekend in Big D for the Lakers. "We don't like being in this position," Fisher said. "It's not familiar, you know? But we are where we are, so we have to make sure we stay together as a group and figure this thing out. We're trying to make history here, and that's not easy. We have to be willing to be accountable, all of us." The pick here this evening, is for the surging Mavericks to triumph at home in Game 3. The following three Highly-Rated Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational Systems support this Dallas pick:
• PLAY AGAINST - Road teams (LA LAKERS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off 3 or more consecutive road wins.
(35-7 since 1996.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (39-3)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.5
The average score in these games was: Team 98.8, Opponent 85.5 (Average point differential = +13.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (47.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
• PLAY ON - Home teams (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-9 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 96.2 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (38.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (61-43).
• PLAY ON - Home teams (DALLAS) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(52-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +27.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (62-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.1
The average score in these games was: Team 101.7, Opponent 93.4 (Average point differential = +8.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (37.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (112-77).
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
*** 2011 NBA ATS PLAYOFF UPDATE ***
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The Celtics and Lakers met in last year’s NBA Finals. It was the 12th all-time meeting for the league's two most storied franchises. Boston won the first eight meetings (the first seven of which came no later than 1969), LA the next two ('85 and '87) and then after a 21-season gap, the Celtics made it 9-2 all-time vs the Lakers by winning the title in 2008. LA closed the gap to 9-3 in favor of Boston by winning the title in 2010. Boston’s won 17 titles in 21 appearances in the NBA Finals while LA captured its 16th NBA championship in its 31st appearance in The Finals last year. However, the big story heading into Friday’s and the weekend's games, is that both Boston and LA are down 2-0 in their respective series.
Only four teams have ever come back from a 2-0 series deficit in the conference semifinals and won the series. The list includes the Rockets over the Suns in both 1994 and 1995, the Lakers over the Spurs in 2004 and the Spurs over the Hornets in 2008. This is now the ninth time Boston has fallen behind 0-2 in a best-of-seven series in its playoff history and the Celtics have gone on to win just ONE of those previous eight series (over the LA Lakers in the 1969 NBA Finals). While Boston returns home after falling behind 0-2, the Lakers travel to Dallas after losing the first two games on their home court. Only three teams in NBA playoff history have come back to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first two at home. Ironically, Dallas is the most recent NBA team to win a series after losing the first two games at home, doing it in 2005 vs the Rockets. Phil Jackson coached teams have been down 0-2 in a seven-game series seven times before, coming back to win just twice.
Home teams are 4-4 SU and ATS in the second round, giving them a 36-15 SU and 21-27-3 ATS in the 2011 playoffs to-date. Home dogs are 7-4-1, so that leaves home favorites 14-23-2 ATS and all favorites an even worse, 18-30-3 ATS. After under bettors went 26-17 (60.5 percent) in the first round, the first six games of the second round all went over but changed Wednesday night, as both games stayed well under the total. Under bettors are now 28-23. Followers of the Zig-Zag Theory were 14-18-3 ATS in the first round and after winning with Chicago but losing with LA, are 16-20-3 ATS (minus-6.0 net games) this postseason. Plays for the next set of four games would be on Atlanta and LA for Friday plus Memphis and Boston on Saturday.
ESPN get a doubleheader Friday night. The first game is Chicago at Atlanta, where the Bulls are favored by 2 1/2 points with a total of 178. LA is at Dallas (9:35 ET) with the Mavs favored by two points (187). Moving on to Saturday, it’s Oklahoma City at Memphis at 5:05 ET on ESPN and Miami at Boston at 8:05 ET on ABC. The Grizzlies are three-point favorites with a total of 200 and the Celtics three-point favorites with a total of 183.
"Enjoy, and as always the very best of luck, from all of us here at Stat/Systems Sports”
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*** HAWKS HOST BULLS IN GAME 3 ON FRIDAY NIGHT ***
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The Atlanta Hawks play their franchise’s most significant home game since 1997 when they host Chicago in Game 3 of an Eastern Conference Semifinal series tied at 1-1. In that ’97 playoff season, the Bulls came into Atlanta tied 1-1, but proceeded to win the next three games as Michael Jordan eventually won his fifth NBA title. Atlanta has been able to put itself in a 1-1 scenario with an outstanding Game 1 win, 103-95. The Hawks shot 51.3% FG that night and were only out-rebounded 46-45. Wednesday’s Game 2 was much different story, as Atlanta made just 33.8% of its shots and was dominated on the glass, 67-44. Chicago won that game 86-73, holding the Hawks to 30 points below their Game 1 output.
The Bulls continue to be led by Derrick Rose, who scored a game-high 25 points in Game 2, but needed 27 shots to do so. Hawks backup point guard Jeff Teague, who is filling in for injured starter Kirk Hinrich, has done a great job in keeping Rose out of the paint and forcing the league MVP to settle for jump shots. Rose is shooting 21-for-54 (38.9% FG) in the series, and has only gotten to the line six times in the two games. Rose had 10 assists in Game 2, but turned the ball over eight times. Another star Chicago player struggling in the series has been Carlos Boozer, who has been bothered by a turf toe injury. Boozer is averaging 11.0 PPG on 43.5% FG in the series, which is well below his regular-season numbers of 17.5 PPG on 51.0% FG. The two Bulls that starred in Game 2 were Joakim Noah (19 points, 14 rebounds) and Luol Deng (14 points, 12 boards) who have been consistently great all season.
The Hawks will need much better performances from Jamal Crawford and Al Horford in Game 3 to take the series lead. Crawford scored just 11 points on 2-of-10 shooting in Game 2, while Horford scored six points, going 3-of-12 from the floor. Teague (5.2 PPG in regular season) led his team in scoring with 21 points (7-14 FG) in Game 2, while Joe Johnson continued his strong play in the postseason with 16 points on 7-of-15 shooting. Johnson had 34 points in Game 1 of this series and has connected on 46.2% of his three-pointers in this postseason.
Chicago has done a great job on the road this season, going 26-17 ATS (61.0%) as the visitor, while the Hawks are just 19-25 ATS (43.0%) at home this season. But the Bulls haven’t had recent success in Atlanta. After winning six straight games at Philips Arena from 2005 to 2007, Chicago lost its next five visits there. But the last meeting in Atlanta was complete dominance by the Bulls, who out-rebounded the Hawks 52-31 and out-shot them 54.4% to 45.3% in a 114-81 blowout win on March 22. We certainly don’t expect another lopsided win in Game 3, but we think Chicago will easily be able to cover the small spread, with another significant advantage on the boards.
The following Highly-Rated Stat/Sheets trends also back the Bulls on Friday night: CHICAGO is 31-13 ATS (70.5%, +16.7 Units) after playing a home game this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 99.4, OPPONENT 88.3 - (Rating = 3*).
Our huge NBA data-base here at Stat/Systems Sports has more reasons to bet on Rose and the Bulls against the Hawks tonight, including these three Highly-Rated Super Situational Systems: PLAY ON - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(54-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (57-25 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 96.3, Opponent 92.6 (Average point differential = +3.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (44.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (152-118).
• PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 75 points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(94-52 since 1996.) (64.4%, +36.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (117-35)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 95.6, Opponent 88 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 54 (36.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (32-20).
• PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(122-73 since 1996.) (62.6%, +41.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (145-54)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.3
The average score in these games was: Team 100.1, Opponent 94 (Average point differential = +6.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 65 (32.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (60-36).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (78-46).
Meanwhile both of these teams have played a lot of low-scoring games recently, as the Under is 9-4 in the past 13 Chicago games and 9-2 in the past 11 Atlanta contests. This Highly-Rated Stat/Sheets trend also likes the Under for Game 3: ATLANTA is 22-7 UNDER (75.9%, +14.3 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 86.4, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 3*).
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Any team (CHICAGO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(135-81 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.5%, +45.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.8
The average score in these games was: Team 96.9, Opponent 95.9 (Total points scored = 192.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 96 (44.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (17-11).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (96-59).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (338-299).
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*** LAKERS IN RARE UNDERDOG ROLE FOR GAME 3 IN DALLAS ***
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If panic and desperation were like pure gold, the Los Angeles Lakers could put Fort Knox out of business. Trailing 0-2 in their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal playoff series, the Lakers are by no means showing or sounding the profile of a team that has been to the NBA Finals three straight years. Andrew Bynum said after the Game 2 loss that his team has “trust issues” that are ”deeply rooted.” In somewhat of a response to that comment, Lakers great Magic Johnson tweeted on Thursday that Bynum should've kept his mouth shut. Kobe Bryant kept his mouth open as he tried to downplay the desperation angle. “Desperate, that's a strong word," Bryant said. "I think when you play desperate you don't play your best basketball. What we need to do is relax, focus on what we're doing wrong and the mistakes that we're making."
If focusing and relaxing is part of a new approach, the defending champions will have to incorporate it without forward Ron Artest for Game 3 on Friday night. Artest was suspended one game without pay for his foul on Mavericks guard Jose Juan Barea with 24.4 seconds remaining in Game 2. It was a senseless play at a meaningless point of a 93-81 defeat that could have a very meaningful impact on Game 3. When asked Wednesday night what he would do to get his team to snap out of its 0-2 funk, coach Phil Jackson jokingly suggested “flogging them.” If L.A. doesn’t pick up its performance Friday night from the very start, the Mavericks might do the flogging, and the whooping, themselves.
The Lakers have appeared to be lethargic at times and undone at others. In Game 2 they shot 41% from the floor and an atrocious 10% from beyond the arc. After Bryant, who had 23 points on 9-of-20 shooting, the guard play was highly insufficient as Derek Fisher scored just four points in 32 minutes, while backup Steve Blake went scoreless, and totaled one assist in 20 minutes of play. The Lakers bench shot 6-for-23 for the game, generating just 12 points. By comparison, Mavs reserve guard Barea nearly outscored the Lakers bench by himself. As it was, his 12 points led a Mavericks bench attack that outscored the Lake Show 30-12.
Barea weaved through the Lakers defense at will to create his own offense and to find open shooters, as the Mavericks high-screen-and-rolls with Dirk Nowitzki and Barea forced the Lakers big men to venture away from the hoop and defend in space, a defensive alternative they clearly were uncomfortable doing. Still, whatever Barea was executing was Plan B. Plan A for Dallas is still about getting Nowitzki unleashed, which Dallas was able to do again, as the big forward finished with 24 points and seven boards. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom have struggled to slow down Nowitzki. Meanwhile the big man combo of Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood has made the perceived advantage of Bynum and Gasol versus the Mavs less than daunting. While Bynum and Gasol both had double-doubles (18 points/13 boards and 13 points/10 rebounds respectively), Chandler and Haywood held their own, combining for 11 points and 15 boards.
Three times in NBA history a team has rallied back after losing the first two games on its home floor to win a best-of-seven series, so the task for the Lakers is not impossible. The bad news is that no team has ever come back to win a playoff series after trailing 3-0 in a series. “This series is far from over," Nowitzki said. "I've been up 2-0 before and ended up losing the series. We've seen a lot of things happen in this league so we've got to stay focused, stay together and let our home crowd ride us and get another great win."
History aside, if they do not start playing like a team that at least resembles world champions, this could be a very brutal Mother’s Day weekend in Big D for the Lakers. "We don't like being in this position," Fisher said. "It's not familiar, you know? But we are where we are, so we have to make sure we stay together as a group and figure this thing out. We're trying to make history here, and that's not easy. We have to be willing to be accountable, all of us." The pick here this evening, is for the surging Mavericks to triumph at home in Game 3. The following three Highly-Rated Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational Systems support this Dallas pick:
• PLAY AGAINST - Road teams (LA LAKERS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off 3 or more consecutive road wins.
(35-7 since 1996.) (83.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (39-3)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 8.5
The average score in these games was: Team 98.8, Opponent 85.5 (Average point differential = +13.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (47.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
• PLAY ON - Home teams (DALLAS) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(30-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-9 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 96.2 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (38.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (61-43).
• PLAY ON - Home teams (DALLAS) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
(52-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +27.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (62-14 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.1
The average score in these games was: Team 101.7, Opponent 93.4 (Average point differential = +8.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 28 (37.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (112-77).
Chip Chirimbes
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
These two clubs should battle it out until the season's final days in the East as they are both well balance and have great pitching. The edge here must go to Philadelphia as Cliff Lee faces Derek Lowe who is 1-4 against the Phillies in the last year. Take PHILADELPHIA!
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
These two clubs should battle it out until the season's final days in the East as they are both well balance and have great pitching. The edge here must go to Philadelphia as Cliff Lee faces Derek Lowe who is 1-4 against the Phillies in the last year. Take PHILADELPHIA!
Bruce Marshall
Lakers at Mavericks
Pick: Under 187
Phil Jackson was openly critical of the Lakers' defense in Game Two, so from that angle expect a better showing on the stop end from LA in game Three. The Lake Show's other problem, however, is on offense, where consistent scoring beyond Kobe Bryant has been elusive throughout the playoffs. Expect possessions to use up much of the shot clock tonight in Big D and for few transition baskets to be scored. The Lakers trended "under" all season, and this looks like another "under" to us. Play Lakers-Mavericks "Under"
Lakers at Mavericks
Pick: Under 187
Phil Jackson was openly critical of the Lakers' defense in Game Two, so from that angle expect a better showing on the stop end from LA in game Three. The Lake Show's other problem, however, is on offense, where consistent scoring beyond Kobe Bryant has been elusive throughout the playoffs. Expect possessions to use up much of the shot clock tonight in Big D and for few transition baskets to be scored. The Lakers trended "under" all season, and this looks like another "under" to us. Play Lakers-Mavericks "Under"
The Duke's Sports
Los Angeles Lakers (+2') for 1.5 Units
"Trust" (Bynum) issues, suspension (Artest), old legs: from a media standpoint it spells doom for the Lakers. However, the Lakers have a veteran team and know how to make corrections. They'll instruct Bynum, they'll actually be better off without Artest who keeps launching 3 point bricks when he's stone cold, and make corrections to the high pick and roll that killed them in Game 2. Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes will get more playing time. Walton will probably dress. And Shannon Brown still gives unmatched athleticism when he's on the floor. In this series, with the dog at 17-8-1 ATS and the road team at 12-4-1 ATS, we'll lean on the incumbent champs to snap out of their funk here.
Los Angeles Lakers (+2') for 1.5 Units
"Trust" (Bynum) issues, suspension (Artest), old legs: from a media standpoint it spells doom for the Lakers. However, the Lakers have a veteran team and know how to make corrections. They'll instruct Bynum, they'll actually be better off without Artest who keeps launching 3 point bricks when he's stone cold, and make corrections to the high pick and roll that killed them in Game 2. Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes will get more playing time. Walton will probably dress. And Shannon Brown still gives unmatched athleticism when he's on the floor. In this series, with the dog at 17-8-1 ATS and the road team at 12-4-1 ATS, we'll lean on the incumbent champs to snap out of their funk here.
