BeatYourBookie
FRIDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Los Angeles Angels +120 over Oakland (MLB TOP PLAY)
Los Angeles is 49-34 when playing in the month of May the last three seasons
Los Angeles is 36-23 when playing on a Friday the last three seasons
Los Angeles is 85-66 when the line posted is between +125 to -125
10* Play Cincinnati +110 over Arizona (MLB TOP PLAY)
Cincinnati is 47-34 vs. NL West Division Opponents the last three seasons
Cincinnati is 47-32 when playing in the month of May the last three seasons
Cincinnati is 63-43 when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs
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5* Play Kansas City +130 over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Houston +110 over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
FRIDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Los Angeles Angels +120 over Oakland (MLB TOP PLAY)
Los Angeles is 49-34 when playing in the month of May the last three seasons
Los Angeles is 36-23 when playing on a Friday the last three seasons
Los Angeles is 85-66 when the line posted is between +125 to -125
10* Play Cincinnati +110 over Arizona (MLB TOP PLAY)
Cincinnati is 47-34 vs. NL West Division Opponents the last three seasons
Cincinnati is 47-32 when playing in the month of May the last three seasons
Cincinnati is 63-43 when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs
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5* Play Kansas City +130 over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Houston +110 over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
FantasySportsGametime
FRIDAY
NBA BASKETBALL
1000* Play Miami -7 over Indiana (NBA TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST
Miami has won 39 of the last 48 home games and they have won 24 of the last 30 games when playing four or less games in ten days.Miami has won 37 of the last 53 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have won 20 of the last 27 games after covering the spread in two of the last three games.
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NHL HOCKEY
50* Play Chicago +125 over Los Angeles (NHL TOP PLAY)
FRIDAY
NBA BASKETBALL
1000* Play Miami -7 over Indiana (NBA TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST
Miami has won 39 of the last 48 home games and they have won 24 of the last 30 games when playing four or less games in ten days.Miami has won 37 of the last 53 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game and they have won 20 of the last 27 games after covering the spread in two of the last three games.
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NHL HOCKEY
50* Play Chicago +125 over Los Angeles (NHL TOP PLAY)
FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Milwaukee -150 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago has lost 67 of the last 103 games vs. division opponents and they have lost 17 of the last 22 games after getting shut-out in their last game.Chicago has lost 28 of the last 41 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers and they have lost 63 of the last 96 games when playing as a road underdog of +100 to +150.
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50* Play St. Louis -140 over San Francisco (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Washington -160 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)
MLB Baseball
1000* Play Milwaukee -150 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago has lost 67 of the last 103 games vs. division opponents and they have lost 17 of the last 22 games after getting shut-out in their last game.Chicago has lost 28 of the last 41 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers and they have lost 63 of the last 96 games when playing as a road underdog of +100 to +150.
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50* Play St. Louis -140 over San Francisco (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Washington -160 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)
XpertPicks
FRIDAY
Miami has won 34 of the last 47 games coming off a road game and they have won 73 of the last 89 games when playing as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.Miami has won 35 of the last 41 home games when the total posted is between 180 and 189.5 points and they have won 57 of the last 76 games coming off two or more OVER the totals.
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NHL HOCKEY
FRIDAY
- Play Miami -7 over Indiana (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
8:30 PM EST
Miami has won 34 of the last 47 games coming off a road game and they have won 73 of the last 89 games when playing as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.Miami has won 35 of the last 41 home games when the total posted is between 180 and 189.5 points and they have won 57 of the last 76 games coming off two or more OVER the totals.
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NHL HOCKEY
- Play Chicago +125 over Los Angeles (NHL)---RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
XpertPicks
FRIDAY BASEBALL
JA Happ has lost 21 of the last 35 games after giving up one or less earned runs in his last outing and he has lost 10 of the last 17 games when pitching on a Friday. JA Happ has lost 31 of the last 53 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has an ERA of 5.40 vs. Kansas City over his career.
Garrett Richards has won three consecutive games when pitching on a Friday and he has won 13 of the last 19 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season. Garrett Richards has won 12 of the last 16 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he is 3-0 in road games this season with an ERA of 1.38.
FRIDAY BASEBALL
- Play Kansas City +130 over Toronto---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:10 PM EST
JA Happ has lost 21 of the last 35 games after giving up one or less earned runs in his last outing and he has lost 10 of the last 17 games when pitching on a Friday. JA Happ has lost 31 of the last 53 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has an ERA of 5.40 vs. Kansas City over his career.
- Play Los Angeles Angels +120 over Oakland----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
10:00 PM EST
Garrett Richards has won three consecutive games when pitching on a Friday and he has won 13 of the last 19 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season. Garrett Richards has won 12 of the last 16 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he is 3-0 in road games this season with an ERA of 1.38.
Today's NHL Picks
Chicago at Los Angeles
The Blackhawks look to follow up their 5-4 win in Game 5 as they face a Kings team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in the previous game. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
Chicago at Los Angeles
The Blackhawks look to follow up their 5-4 win in Game 5 as they face a Kings team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in the previous game. Chicago is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
| FRIDAY, MAY 30 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 23-24: Chicago at Los Angeles (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.559; Los Angeles 12.138 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+115); Over |
Today's MLB Picks
San Francisco at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to bounce back from yesterday's 6-5 loss to the Giants and come into tonight's contest with a 4-0 record in Adam Wainwright's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145). Here are all of today's picks.
San Francisco at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to bounce back from yesterday's 6-5 loss to the Giants and come into tonight's contest with a 4-0 record in Adam Wainwright's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145). Here are all of today's picks.
| FRIDAY, MAY 30 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 901-902: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Montero) 14.273; Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.713 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under |
| Game 903-904: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 14.591; Miami (Koehler) 15.808 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+115); Over |
| Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.228; Milwaukee (Estrada) 16.868 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Over |
| Game 907-908: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.640; St. Louis 16.198 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under |
| Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 16.025; Arizona (Arroyo) 14.829 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+120); Under |
| Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.373; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.946 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+120); Over |
| Game 913-914: Minnesota at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 16.660; NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.673 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Over |
| Game 915-916: Kansas City at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 15.344; Toronto (Happ) 16.802 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Under |
| Game 917-918: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.768; Boston (Workman) 14.467 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over |
| Game 919-920: Baltimore at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 14.576; Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.425 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); Under |
| Game 921-922: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 14.924; Oakland (Pomeranz) 17.421 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under |
| Game 923-924: Detroit at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 17.283; Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.294 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Over |
| Game 925-926: Texas at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 13.818; Washington (Strasburg) 14.778 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Over |
| Game 927-928: Colorado at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 14.368; Cleveland (Kluber) 15.973 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Under |
| Game 929-930: San Diego at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 15.089; White Sox (Danks) 15.151 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under |
StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
MLB | ATLANTA at MIAMI
Play On – Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save
220-150 since 1997. ( 59.5% | 75.6 units )
3-6 this year. ( 33.3% | -2.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | COLORADO at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 62-32 (+34.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.7)
MLB | ATLANTA at MIAMI
Play On – Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save
220-150 since 1997. ( 59.5% | 75.6 units )
3-6 this year. ( 33.3% | -2.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets
MLB | COLORADO at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 62-32 (+34.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.7)
RIVER CITY SHARPS
The White Sox are playing some of their baseball of the season, winners of seven of their last 10 games and fresh off a sweep of the Indians. The White Sox will send John Danks (3-4, 4.90 ERA) to the mound to face off against the Padres Ian Kennedy (3-6, 3.59 ERA) Danks and Kennedy have both been up and down this season, but Danks is coming off a nice performance against the Yankees. The Padres haven’t been very good in interleague play. Some interesting trend lines show us that they are actually 1-4 in their last five IL games as a favorite. Conversely, the White Sox are 4-1 in their last five IL games as an underdog. We like the way that the White Sox are playing right now and Danks mechanics changes seemed to produce some positive results last time out. We are going to support the live home dog here. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+100)
The White Sox are playing some of their baseball of the season, winners of seven of their last 10 games and fresh off a sweep of the Indians. The White Sox will send John Danks (3-4, 4.90 ERA) to the mound to face off against the Padres Ian Kennedy (3-6, 3.59 ERA) Danks and Kennedy have both been up and down this season, but Danks is coming off a nice performance against the Yankees. The Padres haven’t been very good in interleague play. Some interesting trend lines show us that they are actually 1-4 in their last five IL games as a favorite. Conversely, the White Sox are 4-1 in their last five IL games as an underdog. We like the way that the White Sox are playing right now and Danks mechanics changes seemed to produce some positive results last time out. We are going to support the live home dog here. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+100)
CHASE DIAMOND
15* MLB HOME COOKING
Seattle Mariners-110
This game features the 30-20 Tigers at the 26-27 Mariners. Public will be jumping over the chance to get Verlander at plus money but I think the better pitcher here today has been Hisashi Iwakuma who is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA. This guy has been dominant and his team and him will be super up to face Verlander who has been a pedestrian 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA so take the great line and back the Mariners here for a big 15*
15* MLB HOME COOKING
Seattle Mariners-110
This game features the 30-20 Tigers at the 26-27 Mariners. Public will be jumping over the chance to get Verlander at plus money but I think the better pitcher here today has been Hisashi Iwakuma who is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA. This guy has been dominant and his team and him will be super up to face Verlander who has been a pedestrian 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA so take the great line and back the Mariners here for a big 15*
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, MAY 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 5/30/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #9
-- A new contract for left-hander Jon Lester, a free agent at the end of the 2014 season, is a top priority for the Boston Red Sox. Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino appeared Thursday on WEEI Radio and said the team and Lester had contract talks during the season but warned not to get fixated on ongoing negotiations just as fans should not be "fixated on an opening offer." Lester reportedly turned down a four-year, $70 million in April but made it clear that did not mean he was bidding adieu to the Red Sox. He is in the final season of a five-year, $30 million contract extension he signed in 2009. Lester, 30, is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts in 73 innings this season.
-- The Kansas City Royals named Dale Sveum as their hitting coach, the team announced Thursday. Former hitting coach Pedro Grifol was reassigned as a catching instructor. The Royals also named Mike Jirschele as third base coach.
-- The Tampa Bay Rays optioned infielder Cole Figueroa to Triple-A Durham to make room on the 25-man roster for infielder Ben Zobrist, the team announced Thursday. Zobrist will be activated before the Rays' three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox that begins Friday night at Fenway Park. Zobrist has been on the 15-day disabled list since May 15 after he dislocated his left thumb. Figueroa was hitting .250 with an RBI in seven games for the Rays this season.
-- Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman fielded ground balls at first base and worked out in left field in addition to taking batting practice for the first time in six weeks. Manager Matt Williams said the workout is a "steppingstone" for Zimmerman's eventual return. Williams and general manager Mike Rizzo did not discuss a timetable for a potential rehabilitation assignment. He said the team wants to avoid setbacks with the oft-injured Zimmerman. Zimmerman encountered tightness and fatigue in his throwing shoulder before injuring his thumb. The Nationals placed Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a broken right thumb on April 13 and announced he could be out four to six weeks.
-- Starting pitcher Matt Cain is expected to rejoin the rotation for the San Francisco Giants on Saturday in his return from a hamstring injury. Cain last started May 21 against the Colorado Rockies, when he felt a twinge in his leg on his last pitch of the third inning. In his first test of the strain, Cain threw a successful bullpen session Wednesday and the team expects Cain to be fine for Saturday's game against the St. Louis Cardinals, barring setbacks. He is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA in eight starts this season.
-- Minnesota Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey returned to the Twin Cities from Triple-A Rochester on Wednesday after experiencing soreness in his throwing shoulder. He will have an MRI. Outfielder Sam Fuld (concussion) will return to Minneapolis from Pittsburgh after visiting with concussion specialist Dr. Mickey Collins. According to Twins assistant GM Rob Antony, nothing was abnormal about the findings during the visit.
-- Oakland A's shortstop Jed Lowrie was out of the starting lineup on Thursday for just the sixth time this season because of a neck injury. Infielder Nick Punto, who missed the previous five games with a strained left calf, started in Lowrie's place. Right-hander Ryan Cook threw his second bullpen session since going on the disabled list May 8 with a forearm strain and expects to begin a rehab assignment Saturday with Class A Stockton.
-- Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish is still on track to start the game Sunday against the Washington Nationals. He was a late scratch from his scheduled start on Tuesday with neck stiffness.
-- Detroit Tigers outfielder Rajai Davis was out of the starting lineup on Thursday. He suffered a left shoulder contusion on Wednesday while making a diving catch in the second inning of a game against the Oakland Athletics but stayed in the game until the bottom of the seventh inning.
-- Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters will began a soft-toss throwing program on Friday. Wieters was placed on the 15-day disabled list on May 11 with a right elbow strain. Wieters last appeared in a game on May 10 and last worked behind the plate six days before that.
-- The New York Mets activated catcher Travis D'Arnaud from the seven-day concussion disabled list and he was in the starting lineup for Thursday night's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Teheran is 2-0, 0.00 (15 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Wood is 3-0, 3.98 in his last three starts.
-- Cardinals won last four Wainwright starts (3-0, 0.87). Bumgarner is 4-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
-- ASU alum Leake is 0-2, 1.77 in his last five starts. Former Red Arroyo is 3-1, 2.15 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett threw no-hitter Sunday; he is 3-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 2-0, 3.65 in his last four starts. Happ is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three.
-- Gonzalez is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- Pomeranz is 3-1, 0.95 in four starts this season.
-- Iwakuma is 2-1, 1.74 in his last four starts.
-- Lewis is 3-0, 2.12 in his last three road starts.
-- Kluber is 3-0, 2.02 in his last five starts. Nicasio is 3-1, 2.70 in his last five.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Burnett is 1-3, 7.43 in his last four starts. Mets are 0-3 when Montero starts (0-2, 4.96); this is his first road start.
-- Koehler is 1-2, 6.32 in his last three starts.
-- Estrada has a 5.16 RA in his last five starts.
-- Liriano is 0-2, 6.93 in his last five starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-3, 5.58 in his last five starts. Nuno is 0-1, 7.16 in his last three.
-- Price is 1-2, 4.71 in his last four starts. Workman allowed three runs in five IP in his first '14 start.
-- Oberholtzer is 1-3, 8.41 in his last four starts.
-- Richards is 0-1, 5.14 in his last couple starts.
-- Verlander is 1-3, 5.92 in his last four starts.
-- Strasburg is 0-2, 3.43 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-2, 4.82 in his last three starts. Danks is 0-2, 5.30 in his last three outings.
•Totals
-- Six of Mets' last seven games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Atlanta road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Cub games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over total.
-- 12 of last 15 Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Dodger home games went over; seven of last nine Pirate road games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Yankees series openers.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Kansas City games.
-- 10 of last 13 Boston home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Baltimore road games went over.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Oakland home games.
-- Nine of last eleven Detroit games went over total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Washington games.
-- Last three Colorado games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine White Sox home games stayed under. Four of last five San Diego road games went over.
•Hot Teams
-- Mets won their last three games, allowing three runs.
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won six of its last eight home games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of its last six home games.
-- Pirates won six of its last nine games.
-- Yankees won four of its last five games.
-- Red Sox won their last four games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of its last eight home games.
-- Astros won its last six games.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last ten games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost six of their last nine games.
-- Braves lost five of their last six games.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers are 7-11 in their last 18 home games.
-- Twins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Rays lost its last five away games.
-- Royals lost four of its last five games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Athletics lost six of its last eight games.
-- Tigers lost eight of its last eleven games. Seattle is 5-7 in their last 12 home games.
-- Nationals lost six of their last seven games. Cleveland lost five of last six.
-- Rockies lost five of its last seven games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last ten games.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•BOSTON is 7-21 (-18.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.5.
•PITTSBURGH is 12-1 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
•ATLANTA is 6-22 (-20.2 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 2.9, OPPONENT 4.4.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 8-20 (-25.8 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.0, OPPONENT 4.9.
•GARRETT RICHARDS is 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was RICHARDS 2.2, OPPONENT 2.9.
•IAN KENNEDY is 1-19 (-22.5 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse since 1997.
The average score was KENNEDY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - good National League offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good American League starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(59-23 since 1997.) (72.0%, +39.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +105.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.8, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2, +8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3, +8.2 units).
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FRIDAY, MAY 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 5/30/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #9
-- A new contract for left-hander Jon Lester, a free agent at the end of the 2014 season, is a top priority for the Boston Red Sox. Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino appeared Thursday on WEEI Radio and said the team and Lester had contract talks during the season but warned not to get fixated on ongoing negotiations just as fans should not be "fixated on an opening offer." Lester reportedly turned down a four-year, $70 million in April but made it clear that did not mean he was bidding adieu to the Red Sox. He is in the final season of a five-year, $30 million contract extension he signed in 2009. Lester, 30, is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts in 73 innings this season.
-- The Kansas City Royals named Dale Sveum as their hitting coach, the team announced Thursday. Former hitting coach Pedro Grifol was reassigned as a catching instructor. The Royals also named Mike Jirschele as third base coach.
-- The Tampa Bay Rays optioned infielder Cole Figueroa to Triple-A Durham to make room on the 25-man roster for infielder Ben Zobrist, the team announced Thursday. Zobrist will be activated before the Rays' three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox that begins Friday night at Fenway Park. Zobrist has been on the 15-day disabled list since May 15 after he dislocated his left thumb. Figueroa was hitting .250 with an RBI in seven games for the Rays this season.
-- Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman fielded ground balls at first base and worked out in left field in addition to taking batting practice for the first time in six weeks. Manager Matt Williams said the workout is a "steppingstone" for Zimmerman's eventual return. Williams and general manager Mike Rizzo did not discuss a timetable for a potential rehabilitation assignment. He said the team wants to avoid setbacks with the oft-injured Zimmerman. Zimmerman encountered tightness and fatigue in his throwing shoulder before injuring his thumb. The Nationals placed Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a broken right thumb on April 13 and announced he could be out four to six weeks.
-- Starting pitcher Matt Cain is expected to rejoin the rotation for the San Francisco Giants on Saturday in his return from a hamstring injury. Cain last started May 21 against the Colorado Rockies, when he felt a twinge in his leg on his last pitch of the third inning. In his first test of the strain, Cain threw a successful bullpen session Wednesday and the team expects Cain to be fine for Saturday's game against the St. Louis Cardinals, barring setbacks. He is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA in eight starts this season.
-- Minnesota Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey returned to the Twin Cities from Triple-A Rochester on Wednesday after experiencing soreness in his throwing shoulder. He will have an MRI. Outfielder Sam Fuld (concussion) will return to Minneapolis from Pittsburgh after visiting with concussion specialist Dr. Mickey Collins. According to Twins assistant GM Rob Antony, nothing was abnormal about the findings during the visit.
-- Oakland A's shortstop Jed Lowrie was out of the starting lineup on Thursday for just the sixth time this season because of a neck injury. Infielder Nick Punto, who missed the previous five games with a strained left calf, started in Lowrie's place. Right-hander Ryan Cook threw his second bullpen session since going on the disabled list May 8 with a forearm strain and expects to begin a rehab assignment Saturday with Class A Stockton.
-- Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish is still on track to start the game Sunday against the Washington Nationals. He was a late scratch from his scheduled start on Tuesday with neck stiffness.
-- Detroit Tigers outfielder Rajai Davis was out of the starting lineup on Thursday. He suffered a left shoulder contusion on Wednesday while making a diving catch in the second inning of a game against the Oakland Athletics but stayed in the game until the bottom of the seventh inning.
-- Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters will began a soft-toss throwing program on Friday. Wieters was placed on the 15-day disabled list on May 11 with a right elbow strain. Wieters last appeared in a game on May 10 and last worked behind the plate six days before that.
-- The New York Mets activated catcher Travis D'Arnaud from the seven-day concussion disabled list and he was in the starting lineup for Thursday night's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Teheran is 2-0, 0.00 (15 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Wood is 3-0, 3.98 in his last three starts.
-- Cardinals won last four Wainwright starts (3-0, 0.87). Bumgarner is 4-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
-- ASU alum Leake is 0-2, 1.77 in his last five starts. Former Red Arroyo is 3-1, 2.15 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett threw no-hitter Sunday; he is 3-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 2-0, 3.65 in his last four starts. Happ is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three.
-- Gonzalez is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- Pomeranz is 3-1, 0.95 in four starts this season.
-- Iwakuma is 2-1, 1.74 in his last four starts.
-- Lewis is 3-0, 2.12 in his last three road starts.
-- Kluber is 3-0, 2.02 in his last five starts. Nicasio is 3-1, 2.70 in his last five.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Burnett is 1-3, 7.43 in his last four starts. Mets are 0-3 when Montero starts (0-2, 4.96); this is his first road start.
-- Koehler is 1-2, 6.32 in his last three starts.
-- Estrada has a 5.16 RA in his last five starts.
-- Liriano is 0-2, 6.93 in his last five starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-3, 5.58 in his last five starts. Nuno is 0-1, 7.16 in his last three.
-- Price is 1-2, 4.71 in his last four starts. Workman allowed three runs in five IP in his first '14 start.
-- Oberholtzer is 1-3, 8.41 in his last four starts.
-- Richards is 0-1, 5.14 in his last couple starts.
-- Verlander is 1-3, 5.92 in his last four starts.
-- Strasburg is 0-2, 3.43 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-2, 4.82 in his last three starts. Danks is 0-2, 5.30 in his last three outings.
•Totals
-- Six of Mets' last seven games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Atlanta road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Cub games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over total.
-- 12 of last 15 Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Dodger home games went over; seven of last nine Pirate road games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2 in last eight Yankees series openers.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Kansas City games.
-- 10 of last 13 Boston home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Baltimore road games went over.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Oakland home games.
-- Nine of last eleven Detroit games went over total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Washington games.
-- Last three Colorado games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine White Sox home games stayed under. Four of last five San Diego road games went over.
•Hot Teams
-- Mets won their last three games, allowing three runs.
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won six of its last eight home games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Diamondbacks won five of its last six home games.
-- Pirates won six of its last nine games.
-- Yankees won four of its last five games.
-- Red Sox won their last four games.
-- Blue Jays won seven of its last eight home games.
-- Astros won its last six games.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last ten games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost six of their last nine games.
-- Braves lost five of their last six games.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen road games.
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
-- Reds lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers are 7-11 in their last 18 home games.
-- Twins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Rays lost its last five away games.
-- Royals lost four of its last five games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Athletics lost six of its last eight games.
-- Tigers lost eight of its last eleven games. Seattle is 5-7 in their last 12 home games.
-- Nationals lost six of their last seven games. Cleveland lost five of last six.
-- Rockies lost five of its last seven games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last ten games.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•BOSTON is 7-21 (-18.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.5.
•PITTSBURGH is 12-1 UNDER (+11.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
•ATLANTA is 6-22 (-20.2 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 2.9, OPPONENT 4.4.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 8-20 (-25.8 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.0, OPPONENT 4.9.
•GARRETT RICHARDS is 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was RICHARDS 2.2, OPPONENT 2.9.
•IAN KENNEDY is 1-19 (-22.5 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse since 1997.
The average score was KENNEDY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - good National League offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good American League starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(59-23 since 1997.) (72.0%, +39.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +105.1
The average score in these games was: Team 5.8, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2, +8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3, +8.2 units).
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Kevin's Pick(s):
A routine grounder to short stop should have gave us a winner last night, but instead with two outs Reyes threw it in the dirt and the Royals tied the game and went on to win. Tough break there, but we are due for some good fortunes. I've got two small favorites today that I think hold some value...
2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks - DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Leake vs Arroyo
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)
The Dbacks are coming off a 4-0 win last night vs the Reds in which Josh Collmenter held Cincy to the minimum number of batters over 9 shutout innings. Tonight they send Bronson Arroyo to the mound hoping for similar results. Arroyo is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA on the season, but has been much better this month going 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA, .231 OBA and 0.96 WHIP over 5 May Starts. The Reds counter with Mike Leake who has been great all year with a 2-4 record, 2.79 ERA, .235 OBA and 1.06 WHIP. Although he's been solid all season the Reds are just 3-7 when he makes the start. He has also had a rough career vs the Dbacks with a 2-0 record but 6.10 ERA. The Reds are just 1-5 in their last 6 games, 3-8 in Leake's last 11 road starts, and 1-6 in his last 7 starts overall. The Dbacks have won 5 of 7, are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, and 4-1 in Arroyo's last 5 starts. I'll take Arizona tonight at a nice price.
2 UNIT = Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners - MARINERS TO WIN (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Verlander vs Iwakuma
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)
These two teams will be meeting for the first time this season. The Tigers enter 30-20 on the season while the Mariners are 26-27 on the year. Detroit will go with their ace Justin Verlander tonight, but he hasn't been pitching like an ace lately as he struggled with his delivery. Verlander is 5-4 on the season witha 4.04 ERA, but over 5 May starts he is 2-3 with a 6.03 ERA, .300 OBA and 1.72 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has allowed 5, 5 and 6 earned runs against with 11 hits against in his last two. On the rubber for Seattle is Hisashi Iwakuma who had made 5 starts going 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA, .218 OBA and 0.82 WHIP. In three home starts he is 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA, .210 OBA and 0.74 WHIP. Note that the Tigers are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall, 2-8 in Verlander's last 10 starts as an underdog, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs an AL West opponent. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 following a loss, 9-3 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record, and 5-2 in Iwakuma's last 7 starts dating back to last season. Seattle is 7-3 in their last 10 games vs Detroit with Verlander starting. With Iwakuma pitching very well to start off his season and Verlander struggling we're getting a generous price on Seattle tonight.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros - ORIOLES TO WIN (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez vs. Oberholtzer
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)
The Houston Astros have several pieces to the puzzle that I believe will make them a legitimate team in a few years. For now, though, they are just trying to show progress. We have seen progress with them for sure. However, there will be hard times as well. In any case the 'Stros are rolling right along winning six straight games dating back to the Seattle Mariners. The Orioles on the other hand are riding out a three-game skid. Starter for the Astros' Brett Oberholtzer got off to a pretty fine start to the season, but has since taken a nose dive. He still only has one win on the year, 1-6, and his ERA his fell to 5.32. He has been particularly bad recently, where his last three starts has yielded a 6.48 ERA. His WHIP was out of wack at 1.80 with a .385. More concerning is what Oberholtzer has done at home. His ERA is ultra-high with a 9.64. Moreover, he is putting on average more than 2 base runners per inning, a 2.07 WHIP in Houston. In addition, his OBP is .429. Unlike Oberholtzer, Miguel Gonzalez has been in the process of lowering his ERA significantly. Gonzalez hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in five starts, on May 4th. He also hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in 10 starts where he got killed against the Tigers in his first start of the season. Consequently, Gonzalez has had nine straight solid starts. His last three starts has produced a 2.84 ERA. Lastly, note that Astros' hitters are only .224 against right-handed pitching compared to .264 against left-handed. The Astros are on an impressive streak, but I think it ends tonight at six games against Baltimore.
A routine grounder to short stop should have gave us a winner last night, but instead with two outs Reyes threw it in the dirt and the Royals tied the game and went on to win. Tough break there, but we are due for some good fortunes. I've got two small favorites today that I think hold some value...
2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks - DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Leake vs Arroyo
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)
The Dbacks are coming off a 4-0 win last night vs the Reds in which Josh Collmenter held Cincy to the minimum number of batters over 9 shutout innings. Tonight they send Bronson Arroyo to the mound hoping for similar results. Arroyo is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA on the season, but has been much better this month going 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA, .231 OBA and 0.96 WHIP over 5 May Starts. The Reds counter with Mike Leake who has been great all year with a 2-4 record, 2.79 ERA, .235 OBA and 1.06 WHIP. Although he's been solid all season the Reds are just 3-7 when he makes the start. He has also had a rough career vs the Dbacks with a 2-0 record but 6.10 ERA. The Reds are just 1-5 in their last 6 games, 3-8 in Leake's last 11 road starts, and 1-6 in his last 7 starts overall. The Dbacks have won 5 of 7, are 5-1 in their last 6 home games, and 4-1 in Arroyo's last 5 starts. I'll take Arizona tonight at a nice price.
2 UNIT = Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners - MARINERS TO WIN (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Verlander vs Iwakuma
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)
These two teams will be meeting for the first time this season. The Tigers enter 30-20 on the season while the Mariners are 26-27 on the year. Detroit will go with their ace Justin Verlander tonight, but he hasn't been pitching like an ace lately as he struggled with his delivery. Verlander is 5-4 on the season witha 4.04 ERA, but over 5 May starts he is 2-3 with a 6.03 ERA, .300 OBA and 1.72 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has allowed 5, 5 and 6 earned runs against with 11 hits against in his last two. On the rubber for Seattle is Hisashi Iwakuma who had made 5 starts going 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA, .218 OBA and 0.82 WHIP. In three home starts he is 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA, .210 OBA and 0.74 WHIP. Note that the Tigers are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall, 2-8 in Verlander's last 10 starts as an underdog, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs an AL West opponent. The Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 following a loss, 9-3 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record, and 5-2 in Iwakuma's last 7 starts dating back to last season. Seattle is 7-3 in their last 10 games vs Detroit with Verlander starting. With Iwakuma pitching very well to start off his season and Verlander struggling we're getting a generous price on Seattle tonight.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros - ORIOLES TO WIN (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez vs. Oberholtzer
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.77 units)
The Houston Astros have several pieces to the puzzle that I believe will make them a legitimate team in a few years. For now, though, they are just trying to show progress. We have seen progress with them for sure. However, there will be hard times as well. In any case the 'Stros are rolling right along winning six straight games dating back to the Seattle Mariners. The Orioles on the other hand are riding out a three-game skid. Starter for the Astros' Brett Oberholtzer got off to a pretty fine start to the season, but has since taken a nose dive. He still only has one win on the year, 1-6, and his ERA his fell to 5.32. He has been particularly bad recently, where his last three starts has yielded a 6.48 ERA. His WHIP was out of wack at 1.80 with a .385. More concerning is what Oberholtzer has done at home. His ERA is ultra-high with a 9.64. Moreover, he is putting on average more than 2 base runners per inning, a 2.07 WHIP in Houston. In addition, his OBP is .429. Unlike Oberholtzer, Miguel Gonzalez has been in the process of lowering his ERA significantly. Gonzalez hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in five starts, on May 4th. He also hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in 10 starts where he got killed against the Tigers in his first start of the season. Consequently, Gonzalez has had nine straight solid starts. His last three starts has produced a 2.84 ERA. Lastly, note that Astros' hitters are only .224 against right-handed pitching compared to .264 against left-handed. The Astros are on an impressive streak, but I think it ends tonight at six games against Baltimore.
