jeff benton friday
0-1 yesterday...A 40 DIME LOSER ON THE LAKERS... overall, 42-50-3 MINUS 165 dimes...he continues to be awful, continues to go deeper in negative $$$$.
Jeff Benton
Friday's Winner ...
20 DIME: Magic-Celtics UNDER the total
Magic-Celtics UNDER
Pressure time, baby! Both these teams are under immense pressure tonight in what really amounts to a Game 7 for both teams. It’s a Game 7 for Orlando because, obviously, it is in a win-or-go-home situation (just like the last two games). And it’s a Game 7 for the Celtics because the last thing they want is to go back to Orlando for a real Game 7, having choked away a 3-0 series lead.
As we all know, when the pressure increases in a playoff series, defense usually carries the day. That’s because shooters tend to get stiff, nervous and/or reluctant to let their shot go, while the players ratchet up their level of intensity on the defensive end of the court.
Plus, let’s be honest, this has been a very defensive series anyway with a lot of poor shooting. You take away Orlando’s 36-for-69 (52.2 percent) effort in Wednesday’s 113-92 win, and these teams have shot a combined 43 percent in this series (251-for-584). And if you take away Orlando’s 113-point outburst in Game 5, and the teams have produced the following point totals: Boston – 92, 92 (in OT), 94, 95, 92; Orlando – 96 (in OT), 71, 92 and 88.
These teams stayed under the total in the first three games of this series before Game 4 barely nudged over the total by a single point (and that was the game that went into overtime). And prior to the last two contests, the under had cashed in 10 of the previous 11 Magic-Celtics meetings (including five straight in Boston), and this goes back to last year’s Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series when the final four contests stayed low.
More trends for you: The Magic are on “under” runs of 10-3 against winning teams, 9-4 as an underdog (all on the road), 7-1 as a short road underdog (less than five points), 37-14-1 when coming off a day of rest, 16-5 on Friday and 4-1-1 following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the under is 10-4 in Boston’s last 14 Conference Finals games and 10-3 in its last 13 versus winning teams.
Finally, these teams have now faced off nine times this season. In the first eight, the average combined point total was 177.4. And of those eight games, only one – a 96-94 contest in Orlando back on Jan. 28 – would have gotten over tonight’s total of 189 (and just barely).
Bottom line: As soon as Game 5 exploded with 205 combined points, I knew we’d see an inflated over/under number in Game 6. That’s exactly what has happened. I’m telling you, Game 5 was a fluke, guys (and so was Game 4, which went into overtime and still managed just 188 combined points). And I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see this contest played in the 80s on both sides.
Take it UNDER the total.