GIL ALEXANDER
MLB Money Line Fri, 05/28/10 - 7:05 PM
triple-dime bet 972 DET (-115) Sportbet vs 971 OAK
Analysis:
Sheets has 3 quality starts to his name in his last 4 outings. He’s fresh off 6 scoreless innings of 2H, 8SO ball w 2BB v SF. Willis, in contrast, has admittedly been the model of inconsistency this season, but the inside word on him is that he runs into most of his difficulties while in the stretch. In his last 5 outings, he has faced tough offenses in Tex, Min (2x), Bos, and LAD. Today, he is facing a much less menacing offense in the Athletics and one that also doesn’t boast a single legitimate long ball threat in their arsenal. The A’s 26HR is the worst mark in the AL and only the Astros have a worse figure in MLB. I believe that will bring out the best in DTrain tonight. Plus, Willis grew up in Oakland and I do believe there’ll be a psychological boost for him when facing the Athletics. Sabermetrics show that there is no reason whatsoever to give Sheets an edge in the starting pitching matchup either. In fact, Willis has a 0.20 advantage in FIP and his xFIP disadvantage is mitigated by the A’s longball woes. Sheets’ splits portend great things for Detroit’s powerfu“l offense, as well, w a 9.78ERA on the road and right-handed batters hitting at a .311 clip against him. Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera (back in the lineup after his wife gave birth to their 2nd child), and Austin Jackson, the Tigers biggest bats are all right-handed hitters. The Tigers have won 10 of 13 at Comerica. For all of the reasons above, it’s my Game of the Week.