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| Each pick is rated from 0.5 to 2.5 units (read about units). Risk 1% of your total bankroll per unit and never risk more than a few percent of your bankroll on any pick. Game: Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles Time: Friday 05/23 7:05 PM Eastern Pick: 1.5 units on Baltimore -142 (moneyline) at 5Dimes (risk 1.5 to win 1.06) The Cleveland Indians have been living large. They have pulled out three dramatic wins in their last four games, all extra inning affairs, including last night in their series opener in Baltimore. The one thing the dramatic wins have done is tax their bullpen. That could spell trouble as rookie T.J. House will make his first start of the season for the Tribe. Bud Norris has improved his ERA on the season to 3.58 with three of his last four starts allowing 2 or fewer runs against him. Cleveland has stumbled vs. winning teams where they own a 10-27 record in their last 37 against them. Baltimore is wearing short chalk well at home where they are an impressive 40-19 in their last 59 as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Rookie starter, over-worked pen, spells doom for the visitor here, so play on Baltimore. Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets Time: Friday 05/23 7:10 PM Eastern Pick: 1 unit on New York -124 (moneyline) at Bovada (risk 1.0 to win 0.81) The Arizona Diamondbacks have had a tough start to the 2014 season, and head to New York after being swept three straight in St. Louis. Arizona managed a grand total of 4 runs in 30 innings in the series. The Mets dominated their first series vs. Arizona this season, taking three straight in the desert, and won by a combined score of 21-5. Chase Anderson may be 2-0, but owns a 5.06 ERA and has served up 3 HRs in less than 11 innings of work. Bartolo Colon has drawn assignments mostly on the road, and has not pitched at home in nearly a month where he owns a 3.15 ERA. Colon has been in control, walking just six batters in over 57 innings of work on the season. Arizona is now 16-35 in series lid-lifters over their last 51, and the Mets have scored victory in seven of their last eight vs. a team below .400. Back the Mets. Important legal note: These picks constitute copyrighted material. Sharing them with others (including posting on the Internet) is illegal and is a violation of our terms. Sharing them with people who have not paid for them will result in immediate termination of your subscription without refund. Please respect our request to keep these picks to yourself. Thanks in advance. Shopping for the best lines and odds is an essential part of winning |
DAVE AQUINO
Adjustments made to MLB... a full report on our baseball selection methods out on Sunday. The results will speak for themselves.
Watch us closely for FREE through May 31st.
Today's Selections
MLB: St. Louis (ML -102), Miami (ML -114), NY Mets (ML -126), nationals/pirates under 7, royals/angels under 7.5, cubs/padres under 7
NHL: none
NBA: none
WNBA: none
Adjustments made to MLB... a full report on our baseball selection methods out on Sunday. The results will speak for themselves.
Watch us closely for FREE through May 31st.
Today's Selections
MLB: St. Louis (ML -102), Miami (ML -114), NY Mets (ML -126), nationals/pirates under 7, royals/angels under 7.5, cubs/padres under 7
NHL: none
NBA: none
WNBA: none
PREDICTION MACHINE
Money-line Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
Time (ET)
ML Pick
Opponent
SU% Proj.
SU% Needed
ML
$
972 7:10 PM @TB Bos 55.5 50.0 -100 $55
961 7:35 PM Col Upset Watch @Atl 50.1 45.5 120 $43
951 7:05 PM Was @Pit 53.9 50.0 100 $39
968 7:07 PM @Tor Upset Watch Oak 50.0 46.5 115 $33
959 7:10 PM StL @Cin 52.9 50.0 100 $29
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
Time (ET)
Matchup
O/U
Total
Pick
Pick% Proj.
Pick% Need
Odds
$
953 7:05 PM LAD @ PHI 7.5 8.4 Over 55.6 48.8 105 $67
959 7:10 PM STL @ CIN 7 8.5 Over 58.3 53.5 -115 $52
951 7:05 PM WAS @ PIT 7 7.9 Over 55.7 51.2 -105 $46
977 10:10 PM HOU @ SEA 7 7.8 Over 54.5 50.0 100 $45
979 10:15 PM MIN @ SF 7 7.7 Over 54.3 50.0 100 $43
955 7:10 PM MIL @ MIA 7.5 8.0 Over 52.5 48.8 105 $36
971 7:10 PM BOS @ TB 7.5 7.7 Over 51.6 48.8 105 $28
Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
Time (ET)
Favorite
Opponent
Runs For
Runs Against
Win%
978 10:10 PM @ Sea Hou 4.7 3.0 70.0
980 10:15 PM @ SF Min 4.2 3.4 60.9
966 7:08 PM @ Det Tex 4.3 3.5 59.8
953 7:05 PM LAD @ Phi 4.6 3.8 59.2
961 7:35 PM Col Upset Watch @ Atl 3.4 3.4 50.1
968 7:07 PM @ Tor Upset Watch Oak 4.9 4.8 50.0
Run-Line Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
RL Pick
Opp.
RL
Margin
RL% Proj.
RL% Need
Odds
$
951 WAS @PIT 1.5 0.4 72.6 68.8 -220 $62
972 @TB BOS 1.5 0.4 66.9 63.0 -170 $53
961 COL @ATL 1.5 0.0 68.4 64.9 -185 $50
959 STL @CIN 1.5 0.2 71.5 68.8 -220 $44
965 TEX @DET 1.5 -0.8 58.7 56.5 -130 $25
Money-line Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
Time (ET)
ML Pick
Opponent
SU% Proj.
SU% Needed
ML
$
972 7:10 PM @TB Bos 55.5 50.0 -100 $55
961 7:35 PM Col Upset Watch @Atl 50.1 45.5 120 $43
951 7:05 PM Was @Pit 53.9 50.0 100 $39
968 7:07 PM @Tor Upset Watch Oak 50.0 46.5 115 $33
959 7:10 PM StL @Cin 52.9 50.0 100 $29
Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
Time (ET)
Matchup
O/U
Total
Pick
Pick% Proj.
Pick% Need
Odds
$
953 7:05 PM LAD @ PHI 7.5 8.4 Over 55.6 48.8 105 $67
959 7:10 PM STL @ CIN 7 8.5 Over 58.3 53.5 -115 $52
951 7:05 PM WAS @ PIT 7 7.9 Over 55.7 51.2 -105 $46
977 10:10 PM HOU @ SEA 7 7.8 Over 54.5 50.0 100 $45
979 10:15 PM MIN @ SF 7 7.7 Over 54.3 50.0 100 $43
955 7:10 PM MIL @ MIA 7.5 8.0 Over 52.5 48.8 105 $36
971 7:10 PM BOS @ TB 7.5 7.7 Over 51.6 48.8 105 $28
Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
Time (ET)
Favorite
Opponent
Runs For
Runs Against
Win%
978 10:10 PM @ Sea Hou 4.7 3.0 70.0
980 10:15 PM @ SF Min 4.2 3.4 60.9
966 7:08 PM @ Det Tex 4.3 3.5 59.8
953 7:05 PM LAD @ Phi 4.6 3.8 59.2
961 7:35 PM Col Upset Watch @ Atl 3.4 3.4 50.1
968 7:07 PM @ Tor Upset Watch Oak 4.9 4.8 50.0
Run-Line Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot
RL Pick
Opp.
RL
Margin
RL% Proj.
RL% Need
Odds
$
951 WAS @PIT 1.5 0.4 72.6 68.8 -220 $62
972 @TB BOS 1.5 0.4 66.9 63.0 -170 $53
961 COL @ATL 1.5 0.0 68.4 64.9 -185 $50
959 STL @CIN 1.5 0.2 71.5 68.8 -220 $44
965 TEX @DET 1.5 -0.8 58.7 56.5 -130 $25
NonStopSportsPicks
2* Baltimore/Cleveland 1st 5 innings UNDER 5, -120
Taking the 1st 5 innings in this game as it offers more VALUE than the full game, IMO. And by taking the 1st 5 innings, we take the bullpen out of the equation (both bullpens were used last night in the 8-7 Cleveland win). We get Bud Norris, who is getting stronger as the season goes on, and the Orioles will have to face House for the first time, which is another reason we lean to the UNDER in the 1st 5 innings. He should have an advantage the first time through the batting order, and while hitters do make adjustments, as well as House probably not going TOO deep into the game, let's play 2* on the UNDER first 5.
2* Baltimore/Cleveland 1st 5 innings UNDER 5, -120
Taking the 1st 5 innings in this game as it offers more VALUE than the full game, IMO. And by taking the 1st 5 innings, we take the bullpen out of the equation (both bullpens were used last night in the 8-7 Cleveland win). We get Bud Norris, who is getting stronger as the season goes on, and the Orioles will have to face House for the first time, which is another reason we lean to the UNDER in the 1st 5 innings. He should have an advantage the first time through the batting order, and while hitters do make adjustments, as well as House probably not going TOO deep into the game, let's play 2* on the UNDER first 5.
HARRY BONDI
MLB
MILWAUKEE (+105) over Miami
7:10 p.m. ET
Some teams just own other teams. That’s the case tonight as Milwaukee heads to Miami a team they have beaten 20 of the last 27 times they have played. That’s is a near 75% winning percentage that is currently the best winning percentage of one team over another for greater than 25 games in major league baseball! Sure, Miami has been good at home and the Brew Crew may be without Ryan “Roid” Braun on Friday night but Milwaukee owns Miami and the recent games haven’t even been close as they have won the last four meetings by a combined 19-1 score.
MLB
MILWAUKEE (+105) over Miami
7:10 p.m. ET
Some teams just own other teams. That’s the case tonight as Milwaukee heads to Miami a team they have beaten 20 of the last 27 times they have played. That’s is a near 75% winning percentage that is currently the best winning percentage of one team over another for greater than 25 games in major league baseball! Sure, Miami has been good at home and the Brew Crew may be without Ryan “Roid” Braun on Friday night but Milwaukee owns Miami and the recent games haven’t even been close as they have won the last four meetings by a combined 19-1 score.
Larry Ness'10* NL Game of the Month (17-8 L20 days MLB 10*s)
My 10* NL Game of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:35 ET.
Jordan Lyles spent his first four seasons with the Astros, making 72 appearances, 65 of which were starts. He went 2-8 (5.36), 5-12 (5.05) and 7-9 (5.51) with Houston from 2011-2013, so it was mose than just a LITTLE surprise for him to open 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his first eight starts of 2014, with his new team (Colorado).
His surprising early success was keyed by him avoiding trouble in the first inning. However, that's exactly what he failed to do in his last outing, when he walked three batters, hit a fourth and gave up a two-run double in a 37-pitch first inning, while throwing only 16 strikes. The end result was his worst outing of the season, as he gave up six runs with a career-high six walks in 3.1 innings of an 8-5 defeat to the Padres (MLB's weakest hitting team!). He had held hitters to a .206 batting average with two runs allowed and one walk in the first inning of his previous eight starts.
"I just didn't throw enough strikes," said Lyles, who has walked 10 in 9.1 innings over his last two starts after allowing just 10 in 44.2 in his previous seven. "You can't put guys on base that many times. It's just one of those things you learn from. Turn the corner and get better from it." He will be facing the Braves for the first time since his only outing against them as a rookie on June 11, 2011, when he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings of a 6-3, 10-inning home loss with the Astros.
The Braves enter the second leg of their nine-game homestand after taking three of four from NL Central-leading Milwaukee. They rallied for a 5-4 win Thursday as Gerald Laird and Ryan Doumit provided the run-scoring hits in a three-run seventh, the latter delivering a two-run double. "They stuck their noses in there with some tough counts and facing some tough situations. They got big results," manager Fredi Gonzalez told the team's official website.
Gavin Floyd (0-1, 2.41 ERA) makes his third start since recovering from off-season elbow surgery. The right-hander was fairly sharp at St Louis this past Sunday but a passed ball by Laird on what would have been an inning-ending strikeout in the second led to three unearned runs. He allowed four runs overall in 5.1 innings and left without a decision before the Braves rallied for a 6-5 win. He has gone 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Rockies but the most recent came back in 2011 (the bulk of Floyd's career was with the White Sox from 2007-2013), so I'm not real concerned with those numbers.
Bottom line is the following. I expect Lyles to be begin "reverting to form" and one can't ignore the home and away dichotomy of the Rockies. Colorado is batting .344 at home, where it has scored 162 runs in 24 home games (6.75 per) but has hit only .251 away from Coors Field, while scoring just 95 runs in the same number of road contests (just 4.0 per).
Braves are the play!
Larry Ness' 10* Pitching Mismatch G.O.W. (17-8 MLB 10*s L20 days)
My 10* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Week (NL) is on the StL Cards at 7:10 ET.
The Reds were originally hoping Joey Votto would be able to return to the field following a few days off but they ended up placing him on 15-day disabled list prior to Wednesday's 2-1 win at Washington. "We don't want to give Joey a week off and then have Joey slightly improved from when we left him," manager Bryan Price said. "We may not be able to get him to 100 percent during the year, but 90 percent would be a lot better than 50 percent."
However, Cincinnati is looking forward to getting fellow lefty slugger Jay Bruce back. He was activated from the DL on Wednesday but didn't play. The two-time All-Star underwent surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus in his left knee earlier this month. The Reds went 6-8 while averaging just 2.9 runs during Bruce's absence, are hoping he can provide a spark. "We have the ability to do more offensively," Price said. "And we know we're better than we've performed. ... We can talk about treading water until we get whole again, but when you look at that lineup, it's not a lineup that's going to embarrass me or any opponent. That's a lineup that's going to go out there and have the ability to score runs."
However, the Reds will be looking to get things going against the Cardinals, who have won SEVEN of eight behind a 2.08 ERA. St Louis hits the road after limiting Arizona to four runs in a three-game sweep Tuesday through Thursday at Busch. "I think we're starting to see a glimpse here of a good look, really, at what we can do," manager Mike Matheny said after Thursday's 4-2 victory. "You're seeing good defensive plays, very consistent pitching, and you're starting to see those big hits. We had the big two-out hits today, those sorts of things we believe we can do. It's nice not just to believe it, but to actually see it."
The Cardinals give the ball to Shelby Miller (6-2, 2.79 ERA), who is 6-0 with a 1.79 ERA over his last seven starts. The right-hander won his fifth consecutive outing Saturday, allowing one unearned run and five hits over seven innings to beat Atlanta 4-1. "Shelby had a great game plan going in and did a great job of executing today," Matheny told MLB's official website. "He's got to stick with his bread and butter, which is the deception in the four-seam fastball. Today, he added the best breaking ball we have seen from him." The Cards aren't surprised by Miller's pitching, as he went 15-9 in 2013’s regular-season (3.09 ERA), giving him more wins than any Cardinals rookie in 46 years (Cards were 21-10 in his starts).
The Reds will counter with Homer Bailey. MLB circa 2014 is confounding (to say the least) and Bailey is a fairly good example of that. Bailey threw his second no-hitter in two seasons last year, making him the third pitcher in Reds history to throw two no-hitters, joining Johnny Vander Meer and Jim Maloney. However, he was just 11-12 with a 3.49 ERA for the season and finished 2013 with a 49-45 record in his career (4.25 ERA). How does that warrant a six-year, $100 million contract? However, that's exactly the deal the Reds signed him to in February.
They MUST be thrilled, as Bailey is 3-3 with a 5.44 ERA in nine starts (team is 3-6). He's allowed 63 hits over 51.1 innings, owns a 1.58 WHIP plus opponents are batting .303 against him. My ONLY question is, where's the surprise? Making matters even worse for the Reds, Bailey is 5-10 with a 5.01 ERA vs the Cardinals, his most losses against any team. Add to that, he's backed by a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00, the worst of any team in the NL!
This one (Miller vs Bailey) has "pitching mismatch" "written all over it!"
My 10* NL Game of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:35 ET.
Jordan Lyles spent his first four seasons with the Astros, making 72 appearances, 65 of which were starts. He went 2-8 (5.36), 5-12 (5.05) and 7-9 (5.51) with Houston from 2011-2013, so it was mose than just a LITTLE surprise for him to open 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his first eight starts of 2014, with his new team (Colorado).
His surprising early success was keyed by him avoiding trouble in the first inning. However, that's exactly what he failed to do in his last outing, when he walked three batters, hit a fourth and gave up a two-run double in a 37-pitch first inning, while throwing only 16 strikes. The end result was his worst outing of the season, as he gave up six runs with a career-high six walks in 3.1 innings of an 8-5 defeat to the Padres (MLB's weakest hitting team!). He had held hitters to a .206 batting average with two runs allowed and one walk in the first inning of his previous eight starts.
"I just didn't throw enough strikes," said Lyles, who has walked 10 in 9.1 innings over his last two starts after allowing just 10 in 44.2 in his previous seven. "You can't put guys on base that many times. It's just one of those things you learn from. Turn the corner and get better from it." He will be facing the Braves for the first time since his only outing against them as a rookie on June 11, 2011, when he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings of a 6-3, 10-inning home loss with the Astros.
The Braves enter the second leg of their nine-game homestand after taking three of four from NL Central-leading Milwaukee. They rallied for a 5-4 win Thursday as Gerald Laird and Ryan Doumit provided the run-scoring hits in a three-run seventh, the latter delivering a two-run double. "They stuck their noses in there with some tough counts and facing some tough situations. They got big results," manager Fredi Gonzalez told the team's official website.
Gavin Floyd (0-1, 2.41 ERA) makes his third start since recovering from off-season elbow surgery. The right-hander was fairly sharp at St Louis this past Sunday but a passed ball by Laird on what would have been an inning-ending strikeout in the second led to three unearned runs. He allowed four runs overall in 5.1 innings and left without a decision before the Braves rallied for a 6-5 win. He has gone 0-1 with a 6.48 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Rockies but the most recent came back in 2011 (the bulk of Floyd's career was with the White Sox from 2007-2013), so I'm not real concerned with those numbers.
Bottom line is the following. I expect Lyles to be begin "reverting to form" and one can't ignore the home and away dichotomy of the Rockies. Colorado is batting .344 at home, where it has scored 162 runs in 24 home games (6.75 per) but has hit only .251 away from Coors Field, while scoring just 95 runs in the same number of road contests (just 4.0 per).
Braves are the play!
Larry Ness' 10* Pitching Mismatch G.O.W. (17-8 MLB 10*s L20 days)
My 10* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Week (NL) is on the StL Cards at 7:10 ET.
The Reds were originally hoping Joey Votto would be able to return to the field following a few days off but they ended up placing him on 15-day disabled list prior to Wednesday's 2-1 win at Washington. "We don't want to give Joey a week off and then have Joey slightly improved from when we left him," manager Bryan Price said. "We may not be able to get him to 100 percent during the year, but 90 percent would be a lot better than 50 percent."
However, Cincinnati is looking forward to getting fellow lefty slugger Jay Bruce back. He was activated from the DL on Wednesday but didn't play. The two-time All-Star underwent surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus in his left knee earlier this month. The Reds went 6-8 while averaging just 2.9 runs during Bruce's absence, are hoping he can provide a spark. "We have the ability to do more offensively," Price said. "And we know we're better than we've performed. ... We can talk about treading water until we get whole again, but when you look at that lineup, it's not a lineup that's going to embarrass me or any opponent. That's a lineup that's going to go out there and have the ability to score runs."
However, the Reds will be looking to get things going against the Cardinals, who have won SEVEN of eight behind a 2.08 ERA. St Louis hits the road after limiting Arizona to four runs in a three-game sweep Tuesday through Thursday at Busch. "I think we're starting to see a glimpse here of a good look, really, at what we can do," manager Mike Matheny said after Thursday's 4-2 victory. "You're seeing good defensive plays, very consistent pitching, and you're starting to see those big hits. We had the big two-out hits today, those sorts of things we believe we can do. It's nice not just to believe it, but to actually see it."
The Cardinals give the ball to Shelby Miller (6-2, 2.79 ERA), who is 6-0 with a 1.79 ERA over his last seven starts. The right-hander won his fifth consecutive outing Saturday, allowing one unearned run and five hits over seven innings to beat Atlanta 4-1. "Shelby had a great game plan going in and did a great job of executing today," Matheny told MLB's official website. "He's got to stick with his bread and butter, which is the deception in the four-seam fastball. Today, he added the best breaking ball we have seen from him." The Cards aren't surprised by Miller's pitching, as he went 15-9 in 2013’s regular-season (3.09 ERA), giving him more wins than any Cardinals rookie in 46 years (Cards were 21-10 in his starts).
The Reds will counter with Homer Bailey. MLB circa 2014 is confounding (to say the least) and Bailey is a fairly good example of that. Bailey threw his second no-hitter in two seasons last year, making him the third pitcher in Reds history to throw two no-hitters, joining Johnny Vander Meer and Jim Maloney. However, he was just 11-12 with a 3.49 ERA for the season and finished 2013 with a 49-45 record in his career (4.25 ERA). How does that warrant a six-year, $100 million contract? However, that's exactly the deal the Reds signed him to in February.
They MUST be thrilled, as Bailey is 3-3 with a 5.44 ERA in nine starts (team is 3-6). He's allowed 63 hits over 51.1 innings, owns a 1.58 WHIP plus opponents are batting .303 against him. My ONLY question is, where's the surprise? Making matters even worse for the Reds, Bailey is 5-10 with a 5.01 ERA vs the Cardinals, his most losses against any team. Add to that, he's backed by a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00, the worst of any team in the NL!
This one (Miller vs Bailey) has "pitching mismatch" "written all over it!"
