SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +156 over WASHINGTON
The Capitals had a favorable first round matchup against an offensively challenged Rangers club and it’s not like Washington buried them. Two games were decided by a goal, two games were decided by two goals and two games went into OT. In the five games, the Caps scored 13 goals with two of those goals occurring in overtime so in reality, they scored 11 goals in regulation over five games. The pundits have been preaching the Caps new found commitment to defense for months. That’s just another way of saying that this team is winning games but not scoring much and we’re not buying into their “new found commitment”. The Caps defense is not nearly as good as advertised. Mike Green is purely offense. Denis Wideman and Tom Poti are banged up and at least one is unlikely to go. Then we have the layoff. The Caps have been watching from the rails for six days and have played just one game in nine days. That takes teams out of their routine and we saw an example of that last night in the Preds, who came out extremely flat and never got their legs going. The Bolts are dangerous. They played a near flawless final three games against the Pens and this is a defense that’s more penetrable. They can score and their defense has tightened up big time. This is a close series and one that Tampa has a good chance of winning. These games figure to be close, making +156 a must value play. Play: Tampa Bay +156 (Risking 2 units).
SAN JOSE +109 over Detroit (Series)
The fact that the Sharks are a dog in this series is pretty much all the incentive we need to place this wager. On a man to man basis, the Wings are not the superior group here. Detroit finished with less points than the Sharks and allowed 28 more goals against during the regular season. The Red Wings are favored here due to the fashion in which they disposed of the Coyotes. They did it in four straight but Ilya Bryzgalov was horrible and the Coyotes had too much offensive work to do after falling behind on soft goals. The Sharks won’t have those offensive challenges. They are loaded with snipers on all three lines and should have little trouble scoring against a Red Wings defense that has been shaky all season long. These two played four times during the regular season and the Sharks won the final three games and outscored Detroit 12-6. Goaltending always has an impact during playoffs and there’s no distinct advantage for either club. As a result. what we get here is the better team, with home ice advantage, taking back a small tag. Barring anything unusual, the Sharkies advance. Play: San Jose +109 in the series (Risking 3 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI/Florida over 9 +102
Javier Vazquez continues to be a liability. In four starts, covering just 19.1 frames, Vazquez has walked 16 batters and whiffed 14. Walking batters at Great American are runs waiting to happen and Vazquez can’t throw strikes consistently. He also owns a WHIP of 2.02, an ERA of 6.52 and a BAA of .302. Vazquez was booed out of NY, some say the pressure was too much, but command implosion and giant fly-ball jump points to a different culprit and it has continued into this season. Vazquez’s groundball/line-drive/flyball rate is an ugly 27%/21%/52% and that’s the worst in the league among starters with at least three starts this season. Vazquez is not fooling anyone and it’s unlikely he’ll fool a Cinci team that ranks among the league leaders in many offensive categories. Travis Wood also has an extreme flyball profile and that’s not a good thing at his home park. He gets away with it because of great command but the Marlins are tough against lefties. They’re hitting .282 against southpaws and last season went a major league best 34-15 against them. This park is a hitter’s haven due to the cozy dimensions and shortage of foul territory. Neither are a pitcher’s friend and especially not to the tandem taking the mound today. Play: Cincinnati/Florida over 9 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +136 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yankees get overpriced and that’s certainly the case here with Freddy Garcia against Ricky Romero. Romero is 1-3 but his ERA is 3.00 and he has the skills that support his ERA. He’s allowed just 29 hits in 33 frames for a BAA of .230 and a strong WHIP of 1.18. He’s also whiffed 34 batters in those 33 innings. He has an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 52%/13%/35% and there’s nothing in his profile that is cause for concern. The guy can pitch. Garcia has made two outstanding and almost identical starts. In both outings, he went six full and gave up just two hits and zero runs. Garcia has close to 2000 career innings and has pitched for six different clubs (Seattle, Chicago, Philly, Detroit, Chicago again and now NYY) over the past six years. His ERA over the past six seasons is 4.91 so we wouldn’t put too much emphasis on two starts in this young season when nobody wanted to keep him and he didn’t make the Yankees rotation out of spring. The Jays bats are warm with 27 runs scored in a four-game set in Texas and they arrive here with the superior starter and much better pen. Play: Toronto +136 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +102 over ARIZONA
Armando Gallaraga went 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA in 144.1 IP for the Tigers last season. He’ll be remembered for the perfect game that wasn't. Gallaraga avoids groundballs and instead, yields FBs in bunches that too frequently clear the fence. Already this season, he’s allowed an eye-opening eight bombs in just 21 frames. That alone is enough is stay away from him laying juice, as is his 9.00 ERA at Chase Field. The Cubbies are second best in the majors in road batting average, hitting .294 as a team and that too, adds to their appeal. Carlos Zambrano was roughed up for six runs on eight hits in Sunday's loss to the Dodgers. The Dodgers did most of their damage in the first inning, scoring five runs on four hits. Zambrano was able to bounce back and limit Los Angeles to just one more run over his next four innings, but the Cubs couldn't muster up enough offense to make a comeback. The game prior to that, he threw a three-hit gem and overall he has 27 k’s in 30 innings. He appears to be getting stronger and perhaps even regaining some of his prior strong skills. Having said that, this one is all about taking back a tag against a vulnerable Gallaraga. Play: Chicago +102 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +156 over WASHINGTON
The Capitals had a favorable first round matchup against an offensively challenged Rangers club and it’s not like Washington buried them. Two games were decided by a goal, two games were decided by two goals and two games went into OT. In the five games, the Caps scored 13 goals with two of those goals occurring in overtime so in reality, they scored 11 goals in regulation over five games. The pundits have been preaching the Caps new found commitment to defense for months. That’s just another way of saying that this team is winning games but not scoring much and we’re not buying into their “new found commitment”. The Caps defense is not nearly as good as advertised. Mike Green is purely offense. Denis Wideman and Tom Poti are banged up and at least one is unlikely to go. Then we have the layoff. The Caps have been watching from the rails for six days and have played just one game in nine days. That takes teams out of their routine and we saw an example of that last night in the Preds, who came out extremely flat and never got their legs going. The Bolts are dangerous. They played a near flawless final three games against the Pens and this is a defense that’s more penetrable. They can score and their defense has tightened up big time. This is a close series and one that Tampa has a good chance of winning. These games figure to be close, making +156 a must value play. Play: Tampa Bay +156 (Risking 2 units).
SAN JOSE +109 over Detroit (Series)
The fact that the Sharks are a dog in this series is pretty much all the incentive we need to place this wager. On a man to man basis, the Wings are not the superior group here. Detroit finished with less points than the Sharks and allowed 28 more goals against during the regular season. The Red Wings are favored here due to the fashion in which they disposed of the Coyotes. They did it in four straight but Ilya Bryzgalov was horrible and the Coyotes had too much offensive work to do after falling behind on soft goals. The Sharks won’t have those offensive challenges. They are loaded with snipers on all three lines and should have little trouble scoring against a Red Wings defense that has been shaky all season long. These two played four times during the regular season and the Sharks won the final three games and outscored Detroit 12-6. Goaltending always has an impact during playoffs and there’s no distinct advantage for either club. As a result. what we get here is the better team, with home ice advantage, taking back a small tag. Barring anything unusual, the Sharkies advance. Play: San Jose +109 in the series (Risking 3 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI/Florida over 9 +102
Javier Vazquez continues to be a liability. In four starts, covering just 19.1 frames, Vazquez has walked 16 batters and whiffed 14. Walking batters at Great American are runs waiting to happen and Vazquez can’t throw strikes consistently. He also owns a WHIP of 2.02, an ERA of 6.52 and a BAA of .302. Vazquez was booed out of NY, some say the pressure was too much, but command implosion and giant fly-ball jump points to a different culprit and it has continued into this season. Vazquez’s groundball/line-drive/flyball rate is an ugly 27%/21%/52% and that’s the worst in the league among starters with at least three starts this season. Vazquez is not fooling anyone and it’s unlikely he’ll fool a Cinci team that ranks among the league leaders in many offensive categories. Travis Wood also has an extreme flyball profile and that’s not a good thing at his home park. He gets away with it because of great command but the Marlins are tough against lefties. They’re hitting .282 against southpaws and last season went a major league best 34-15 against them. This park is a hitter’s haven due to the cozy dimensions and shortage of foul territory. Neither are a pitcher’s friend and especially not to the tandem taking the mound today. Play: Cincinnati/Florida over 9 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +136 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yankees get overpriced and that’s certainly the case here with Freddy Garcia against Ricky Romero. Romero is 1-3 but his ERA is 3.00 and he has the skills that support his ERA. He’s allowed just 29 hits in 33 frames for a BAA of .230 and a strong WHIP of 1.18. He’s also whiffed 34 batters in those 33 innings. He has an outstanding GB/LD/FB profile of 52%/13%/35% and there’s nothing in his profile that is cause for concern. The guy can pitch. Garcia has made two outstanding and almost identical starts. In both outings, he went six full and gave up just two hits and zero runs. Garcia has close to 2000 career innings and has pitched for six different clubs (Seattle, Chicago, Philly, Detroit, Chicago again and now NYY) over the past six years. His ERA over the past six seasons is 4.91 so we wouldn’t put too much emphasis on two starts in this young season when nobody wanted to keep him and he didn’t make the Yankees rotation out of spring. The Jays bats are warm with 27 runs scored in a four-game set in Texas and they arrive here with the superior starter and much better pen. Play: Toronto +136 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +102 over ARIZONA
Armando Gallaraga went 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA in 144.1 IP for the Tigers last season. He’ll be remembered for the perfect game that wasn't. Gallaraga avoids groundballs and instead, yields FBs in bunches that too frequently clear the fence. Already this season, he’s allowed an eye-opening eight bombs in just 21 frames. That alone is enough is stay away from him laying juice, as is his 9.00 ERA at Chase Field. The Cubbies are second best in the majors in road batting average, hitting .294 as a team and that too, adds to their appeal. Carlos Zambrano was roughed up for six runs on eight hits in Sunday's loss to the Dodgers. The Dodgers did most of their damage in the first inning, scoring five runs on four hits. Zambrano was able to bounce back and limit Los Angeles to just one more run over his next four innings, but the Cubs couldn't muster up enough offense to make a comeback. The game prior to that, he threw a three-hit gem and overall he has 27 k’s in 30 innings. He appears to be getting stronger and perhaps even regaining some of his prior strong skills. Having said that, this one is all about taking back a tag against a vulnerable Gallaraga. Play: Chicago +102 (Risking 2 units).
