SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles –106 over CHICAGO
2:20 PM EST. This is a pitching mismatch in the Dodgers favor and at this price must be played. Chad Billingsley’s skill level is approaching the elite ranks. His groundball rate of 53% is no fluke, as last year his rate was slightly lower at 50%. He also has an outstanding strikeout rate this season, as his 24 K’s in 22 frames will attest to. Billingsley has always shredded righthanders and he continues to improve against left-handers. Against the scorching Cardinals in his last start, Billingsley threw a three-hit, eight-inning shutout while striking out 11. Casey Coleman has walked four batters and struck out five in 10.2 frames this year. Nothing stands out for Coleman other than a high strand rate of 80% and that’s an unsustainable number. Coleman has allowed 13 hits in his 10.2 IP and two of those 13 knocks went over the fence. Coleman is a pitcher that puts the ball in play and hopes it’s hit right at someone. The oddsmakers have put Coleman on the same level as Billingsley and that is nothing short of ludicrous. Play: Los Angeles –103 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
SAN FRANCISCO +102 over Atlanta
Lefty Madison Bumgarner does not get the same fanfare as the other Giant starters and he’ll continue to pitch under the radar behind Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sánchez until his ERA gets straightened out. Bumgarner comes into this start with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 7.36 but don’t put too much emphasis on three games. Bumgarner is just 21 years old and he has nothing but upside. In September last year, Bumgarner put up eye-opening numbers in 32 innings and he also had a brilliant spring. This season he’s walked eight batters in 14 IP while striking out just seven and that’s totally out of character for him, as he walked just 26 batters all of last season in 111 frames. With a history of a strong groundball bias and very good command, there’s a lot to like here. We also love the fact that outside of Dan Uggla, who is 0-2 against Bumgarner, no other Brave has faced him before. Incidentally, Uggla is 1-18 (.056) against lefties this season. As a whole, the Braves are hitting .212 against lefties. Tommy Hanson is a quality starter, period and he’s somebody we’ll profile another time. This wager has nothing to do with wagering against Hanson. This is all about taking back a tag on an extremely undervalued pitcher that has a chance to dominate a weak-hitting lineup against southpaws. Lastly, the Braves are 4-7 on the road while the Giants have played just six home games and are 4-2. Play: San Francisco +102 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +111 over MINNESOTA
Fausto Carmona gets a start in pitcher-friendly Target Field against the lowest scoring team in the AL, a team against which he owns a decent career line. Carmona is a groundball specialist. His rate this season is 61% and that might be the best mark in baseball. He also has 20 K’s and has issued just seven walks in 20 innings of work. Carmona is showing the skills he displayed in his 2007 career year and he’s just 27 years old. The Indians are 13-6 and have been crushing left-handed pitching (AL-best .885 OPS). They’ll see a southpaw here in Brian Duensing. Duensing posted a 2.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last year. A favorable 82% LOB% produced his ERA. His base skills were middling at best and while the Twins insist he’ll remain in the rotation, his skills do not warrant such confidence. This season his strand rate is still high at 76% and once that normalizes his ERA will head south in a hurry. The banged-up Twins have yet to have a three-game winning streak. They haven’t yet put together any semblance of the type of offense and pitching that last year led them to a 53-28 (.654) record at home. They’ll be hard-pressed to score against Carmona and will come into this game with the inferior team and starter. Play: Cleveland +111 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +147 over PHILADELPHIA
If there’s anything we’ve learned in this year’s playoffs is that the team that gets better goaltending is going to win about 90% of the time. The Flyers made a positive switch from Sergei Bobrovsky to Brian Boucher and while Boucher has been good, you know that bad game is forthcoming soon. Ryan Miller has been both shaky and brilliant. Having said that, we’d much hitch our wagon onto Miller. The Flyers have had a slight territorial edge in this series but the Sabres can play toe-to-toe with this host and they’re on the verge of playing their best game of the series. This is the pivotal game five and in a contest in which anything can happen and either team has an equal chance of winning, we’ll gladly take back the tag with the more reliable Miller in net. Play: Buffalo +147 (Risking 2 units).
ANAHEIM -½ +125 over Nashville
Speaking of goaltending, the Preds are in trouble. Pekka Rinne looks like a lost child out there. He’s fighting every puck, he’s wandering into no man’s land and when you combine that with a shaken confidence on the road against a slew of sharp-shooting snipers, you have a big problem. The Ducks have to be feeling great. After losing game one and after losing Bobby Ryan for games three and four, the Ducks come home tied 2-2. They dominated last game in Nashville and won 6-3 and now bring that huge momentum back to the Pond. Even in game three, in which the Preds dominated play they had to hang on for dear life to win 4-3. The Ducks are a playoff team. They’ve been in this position many times before with a lot of success. The Preds have not. In every big game in their playoff history they come up on the short end. They have never won a playoff series and they’ve never responded well to big playoff games. They had their chance to go up 3-1 with Ryan out and the game in Nashville. The Preds responded by shaking in their Blue Suede Skates and getting blown out. Chances are they’ll bow out again. Play: Anaheim -½ +125 (Risking 2 units).
