DR BOB
Friday NBA Opinion
ATLANTA (+1 ½) over Boston
Rotation #512 – 5:05 pm Pacific
Boston beat the Spurs last night 107-97, but the Celtics don’t play as well unrested and they’re 0-12 ATS the last two seasons the night after a double-digit win. My ratings favor Atlanta by 1 point in this game and I’ll lean with the Hawks plus the points.
Friday College Opinion
OREGON (-4) over Creighton
Rotation #528 – 7 pm Pacific
Oregon is a better team than Creighton and the Ducks have out-scored the Blue Jays by an average of 2.5 points in two games in this series (one home and one road game) despite negative variance in 3-point shooting (35.7% to 43.2%) and free-throw shooting (12 for 19 and 34 for 45 from Creighton). My ratings favor the Ducks by 6 ½ points based on current lineups for each team and Oregon was really close to being a Best Bet in this game.
Friday NBA Opinion
ATLANTA (+1 ½) over Boston
Rotation #512 – 5:05 pm Pacific
Boston beat the Spurs last night 107-97, but the Celtics don’t play as well unrested and they’re 0-12 ATS the last two seasons the night after a double-digit win. My ratings favor Atlanta by 1 point in this game and I’ll lean with the Hawks plus the points.
Friday College Opinion
OREGON (-4) over Creighton
Rotation #528 – 7 pm Pacific
Oregon is a better team than Creighton and the Ducks have out-scored the Blue Jays by an average of 2.5 points in two games in this series (one home and one road game) despite negative variance in 3-point shooting (35.7% to 43.2%) and free-throw shooting (12 for 19 and 34 for 45 from Creighton). My ratings favor the Ducks by 6 ½ points based on current lineups for each team and Oregon was really close to being a Best Bet in this game.
Gold Sheet
PHILADELPHIA 98 - New Jersey 87—Philadelphia has won 7 straight
against New Jersey, covering the last four of those, and not sure much has
changed this time around. The Sixers will be laying a few more points than in
first three meetings this year, but Philly has a 16-8 mark facing “B” and “C”
teams at the Wells Fargo Center this season. Philly F Elton Brand has a touch
of the flu and missed Thursday’s practice, but don’t think that will keep him out
of the lineup in this one. N.J. regained services of G Deron Williams, who had
22 pts., 8 ast. & 8 boards against the Knicks. However, his shooting touch is still
off due to his wrist injury, and the Nets shot just 40% as a team against Philly this
season. Intense HC Doug Collins isn’t the type to throttle down and reduce
minutes, and, if anything, he’s shortened his bench a little in order to prepare for
the playoffs. "Totals" note: these two have gone “under” 8-3 last 11 meetings.
10-PHI -1' 102-86 (190), Phi -1' 82-77 (191), Phi -2' 106-92 (188); 09-PHI -12 97-
94 (193), Phi -5' 82-79 (189), Phi -5' 83-79 (189), PHI -7 108-97 (191)
WASHINGTON 96 - Cleveland 85—Return to action of Washington F
Andray Blatche (14 pts., 8 boards in 27 mins. vs. the Heat) is a boost for
Wizards, and G Jordan Crawford’s play has made the injury to Nick Young a
non-issue. Crawford has scored 23 ppg in his last 9 for the Wizards, and he’s
teamed with rookie PG John Wall (suspended for this game by the league) to
provide Washington with solid production from the backcourt. Judging by the
Miami game, the Wizards have more than a little fight left in them. Cleveland
has been playing well, covering 5 of its last 7, including an upset of the Heat, but
not sure Cavs can muster a high-level effort for third straight game. "Totals"
note: Washington “under” 7-2 last 9 at the Verizon Center, and Cleveland
“under” 11-2 last 13 overall. 10-Cle +4' 107-102 (194), Was +1' 115-100 (207);
09-CLE -11' 102-90 (197), WAS +4 108-91 (195), CLE -13' 121-98 (196)
INDIANA 91 - Milwaukee 90—Milwaukee has held the upper hand in this
series, as the Bucks have won 6 of last 7 SU and covered 9 of the last 11 against
Indiana. Pacer top threat F Danny Granger continues to have problems with his
shooting, as he’s made just 39% in his last 4 games and is at a career low 42%
this season. This will be a last-gasp effort for the Bucks, who are 3 games
behind Indiana for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The Pacers haven’t
been exactly fearsome at Conseco Fieldhouse recently, splitting their last 12
pointspread decisions at home. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 9-4-1 vs. the number
in its last 14, and, with F Drew Gooden back in action (22 pts., 11 boards off the
bench against the Raptors Wednesday), along with a productive Brandon
Jennings (25 ppg last 4 games), Buck HC Scott Skiles has more options with a
bit deeper team. Neither of these two have shot well in the series this season,
so would take a look at the “under” as well. 10-Mil +2 94-90 (196), MIL -1' 97-
95 (189), Ind +2 103-97 (192); 09-Mil +1' 84-81 (199), MIL -6 93-81 (208), Mil -1'
112-110 (203), MIL -9' 98-94 (203)
ORLANDO 94 - Charlotte 92—A definite contrast in motivation exists in
this game, as Orlando is pretty much cemented into hosting a first-round playoff
series against Atlanta, while Charlotte is a game out of the playoff picture.
Bobcat leading scorer Stephen Jackson has been playing through a hamstring
injury in hopes of propelling Charlotte past Indiana, and he’s been very effective
against Orlando this season, scoring 25.5 ppg and shooting 49%. The Magic
are 16-2 SU last 18 against the Bobcats, but just 7-7 last 14 against the points,
including a 3-4 mark last 7 played at Amway Arena. Orlando has a 2-11
pointspread mark in its last 13 games, and with several nagging injuries to
contend with, HC Stan Van Gundy might be more interested in getting to the
series with the Hawks healthy. "Totals" note: the “under” is 8-2-1 last 11 in this
series at Orlando. 10-Orl -7 91-88 (186), ORL -11 100-86 (195); 09-Orl -3' 93-
81 (181), ORL -12' 97-91 (183), Orl -1' 106-95 (OT-190), Cha +8' 96-89 (189),
ORL -10 98-89 (187), ORL -9 92-77 (186), Orl -2' 90-86 (184), Orl -4 99-90 (184)
Chicago 98 - DETROIT 89—Chicago will probably be without services of
C Joakim Noah in this game after he injured his ankle Monday vs. Philly and had
to sit out Wednesday’s game against Minny. The consistent Bulls have covered
61% of their games without Noah this season, and they are 9-2 vs. the number
in their last 11 on the road. Bull HC Tom Thibodeau’s team is in possession of
the top seed in the East, with a 2½-game lead over Boston and Miami, so every
game still counts for Chicago. The Pistons have been the Bulls’ whipping boys
the last few years, as Chicago has won 10 in a row in the series and Detroit has
covered just once in last 15 meetings. Piston clubhouse has gone from stormy
outbursts to stony silence, as John Kuester’s days appear numbered in Motown
(likewise several players as well, as GM Joe Dumars is likely to make more than
a few changes in the offseason). It’s hard to imagine the Pistons were 59-23
and Central Division champs just 3 years ago and averaged 58 wins from 2004-
2008, garnering an NBA championship in the process. 10-CHI -9 101-91 (193),
Chi -4' 95-92 (OT-190), CHI -10 95-82 (188); 09-CHI -7' 92-85 (182), Chi +4 98-
87 (185), CHI -6 120-87 (193), Chi +2' 110-103 (198)
PHILADELPHIA 98 - New Jersey 87—Philadelphia has won 7 straight
against New Jersey, covering the last four of those, and not sure much has
changed this time around. The Sixers will be laying a few more points than in
first three meetings this year, but Philly has a 16-8 mark facing “B” and “C”
teams at the Wells Fargo Center this season. Philly F Elton Brand has a touch
of the flu and missed Thursday’s practice, but don’t think that will keep him out
of the lineup in this one. N.J. regained services of G Deron Williams, who had
22 pts., 8 ast. & 8 boards against the Knicks. However, his shooting touch is still
off due to his wrist injury, and the Nets shot just 40% as a team against Philly this
season. Intense HC Doug Collins isn’t the type to throttle down and reduce
minutes, and, if anything, he’s shortened his bench a little in order to prepare for
the playoffs. "Totals" note: these two have gone “under” 8-3 last 11 meetings.
10-PHI -1' 102-86 (190), Phi -1' 82-77 (191), Phi -2' 106-92 (188); 09-PHI -12 97-
94 (193), Phi -5' 82-79 (189), Phi -5' 83-79 (189), PHI -7 108-97 (191)
WASHINGTON 96 - Cleveland 85—Return to action of Washington F
Andray Blatche (14 pts., 8 boards in 27 mins. vs. the Heat) is a boost for
Wizards, and G Jordan Crawford’s play has made the injury to Nick Young a
non-issue. Crawford has scored 23 ppg in his last 9 for the Wizards, and he’s
teamed with rookie PG John Wall (suspended for this game by the league) to
provide Washington with solid production from the backcourt. Judging by the
Miami game, the Wizards have more than a little fight left in them. Cleveland
has been playing well, covering 5 of its last 7, including an upset of the Heat, but
not sure Cavs can muster a high-level effort for third straight game. "Totals"
note: Washington “under” 7-2 last 9 at the Verizon Center, and Cleveland
“under” 11-2 last 13 overall. 10-Cle +4' 107-102 (194), Was +1' 115-100 (207);
09-CLE -11' 102-90 (197), WAS +4 108-91 (195), CLE -13' 121-98 (196)
INDIANA 91 - Milwaukee 90—Milwaukee has held the upper hand in this
series, as the Bucks have won 6 of last 7 SU and covered 9 of the last 11 against
Indiana. Pacer top threat F Danny Granger continues to have problems with his
shooting, as he’s made just 39% in his last 4 games and is at a career low 42%
this season. This will be a last-gasp effort for the Bucks, who are 3 games
behind Indiana for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The Pacers haven’t
been exactly fearsome at Conseco Fieldhouse recently, splitting their last 12
pointspread decisions at home. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 9-4-1 vs. the number
in its last 14, and, with F Drew Gooden back in action (22 pts., 11 boards off the
bench against the Raptors Wednesday), along with a productive Brandon
Jennings (25 ppg last 4 games), Buck HC Scott Skiles has more options with a
bit deeper team. Neither of these two have shot well in the series this season,
so would take a look at the “under” as well. 10-Mil +2 94-90 (196), MIL -1' 97-
95 (189), Ind +2 103-97 (192); 09-Mil +1' 84-81 (199), MIL -6 93-81 (208), Mil -1'
112-110 (203), MIL -9' 98-94 (203)
ORLANDO 94 - Charlotte 92—A definite contrast in motivation exists in
this game, as Orlando is pretty much cemented into hosting a first-round playoff
series against Atlanta, while Charlotte is a game out of the playoff picture.
Bobcat leading scorer Stephen Jackson has been playing through a hamstring
injury in hopes of propelling Charlotte past Indiana, and he’s been very effective
against Orlando this season, scoring 25.5 ppg and shooting 49%. The Magic
are 16-2 SU last 18 against the Bobcats, but just 7-7 last 14 against the points,
including a 3-4 mark last 7 played at Amway Arena. Orlando has a 2-11
pointspread mark in its last 13 games, and with several nagging injuries to
contend with, HC Stan Van Gundy might be more interested in getting to the
series with the Hawks healthy. "Totals" note: the “under” is 8-2-1 last 11 in this
series at Orlando. 10-Orl -7 91-88 (186), ORL -11 100-86 (195); 09-Orl -3' 93-
81 (181), ORL -12' 97-91 (183), Orl -1' 106-95 (OT-190), Cha +8' 96-89 (189),
ORL -10 98-89 (187), ORL -9 92-77 (186), Orl -2' 90-86 (184), Orl -4 99-90 (184)
Chicago 98 - DETROIT 89—Chicago will probably be without services of
C Joakim Noah in this game after he injured his ankle Monday vs. Philly and had
to sit out Wednesday’s game against Minny. The consistent Bulls have covered
61% of their games without Noah this season, and they are 9-2 vs. the number
in their last 11 on the road. Bull HC Tom Thibodeau’s team is in possession of
the top seed in the East, with a 2½-game lead over Boston and Miami, so every
game still counts for Chicago. The Pistons have been the Bulls’ whipping boys
the last few years, as Chicago has won 10 in a row in the series and Detroit has
covered just once in last 15 meetings. Piston clubhouse has gone from stormy
outbursts to stony silence, as John Kuester’s days appear numbered in Motown
(likewise several players as well, as GM Joe Dumars is likely to make more than
a few changes in the offseason). It’s hard to imagine the Pistons were 59-23
and Central Division champs just 3 years ago and averaged 58 wins from 2004-
2008, garnering an NBA championship in the process. 10-CHI -9 101-91 (193),
Chi -4' 95-92 (OT-190), CHI -10 95-82 (188); 09-CHI -7' 92-85 (182), Chi +4 98-
87 (185), CHI -6 120-87 (193), Chi +2' 110-103 (198)
Gold Sheet
ATLANTA 91 - Boston 87—Boston is much like a fighter ahead on points
who caught a haymaker and is stumbling through the late rounds trying to hang
on for a decision. Things have not gone well for the Celtics since Danny Ainge
dealt Kendrick Perkins to OKC, as Boston is just 6-12 vs. the number last 18
prior to facing San Antonio last night. The Celts have not responded well in 2nd
night of back-to-back games this season, either, posting a 4-12 spread mark
when unrested (3-9 on the road). Boston posted a pair of big wins against
Atlanta this season, but those games were both played before Christmas, when
the Celtics were humming at 21-4 in mid-December and the Hawks were
figuring things out in a 16-11 start. Boston is just 5-7 SU in its last 12 games,
with 4 of the losses coming against teams that are currently out of the playoff
picture. Celt G Ray Allen (36% last 5 games) and F Paul Pierce (43% last 10)
still off their games, and word is Boston players were not happy about Perkins
leaving (he was Rajon Rondo’s best friend). Atlanta not a great play as a home
favorite (11-20 vs. the number), but Hawks capable of beating the Celtics, a
team they swept a season ago, even with return to action of Boston's Jermaine
O’Neal (big deal...it’s the other O’Neal they need healthy). 10-Bos +3 99-76
(193), BOS -7 102-90 (186); 09-Atl +9 97-86 (193), ATL -4 93-85 (195), Atl +4
102-96 (193), ATL -4 100-91 (190) CABLE TV—ESPN
Miami 95 - MINNESOTA 85—Minnesota regained services of star F Kevin
Love in loss to Chicago Wednesday, but despite getting 16 pts. & 9 boards,
Love didn’t impress (if he jumped higher than a soda can in that one, we missed
it). The Timberwolves have been unimpressive as a home dog this season,
dropping 15 of 24 when getting points at the Target Center, and Miami has been
very efficient in beating up on bad teams away from South Beach, logging a 16-
8 spread mark laying 4 pts. or more on the road this season. The Heat were
shocked at Cleveland on Tuesday, but snapped back by dominating
Washington Wednesday, shooting 58% against the Wizards. Minny didn’t slow
the Heat in first meeting, as Kurt Rambis’ squad shot only 37% and his starting
five were outscored by three Miami bench players (Eddie House, James Jones
& Udonis Haslem combined for 43 points to Minny regulars’ 41-pt. output). Look
for LeBron, D-Wade & Bosh to put a hurting on the Timberwolves in order to
keep on Chicago’s tail in race for first seed in the East. 10-MIA -16' 129-97
(193); 09-Min +8 91-88 (192), Mia -6' 97-84 (191)
NEW ORLEANS 192 - Memphis 91—Memphis has covered 6 in a row. But
might not want to lay points with Grizzlies in this situation. Memphis is just 3-6
as road chalk this season, and New Orleans hasn’t rolled over and played dead
despite injury to F David West, as the Hornets are 4-2 against the number last
6 at home, with SU wins against Portland & Dallas among those efforts. Carl
Landry has scored 21 ppg in three starts since West suffered a season-ending
ACL injury, and N.O. PG Chris Paul has averaged 22 pts. & 13 assists against
Memphis this season. Conversely, now-injured Rudy Gay was the leading
scorer for Memphis against the Hornets, and Zach Randolph was held in check
by New Orleans, as the Grizzly PF shot just 40% in 1st 2 meetings. Dueling
"totals" notes: the “over” is 5-1 in last 6 in this series, but Memphis is “under” 22-
16 on the road this season, while N.O. has been the most “under” team in the
league at 45-26. 10-NO -3' 103-102 (OT-185), No +5' 98-91 (185); 09-NO -3'
113-111 (204), No +7' 109-102 (OT-204), Mem +2' 104-100 (202), MEM -3' 107-
96 (206)
San Antonio 109 - HOUSTON 100—San Antonio’s once formidable lead
in the West was just 3½ games prior to hosting Boston last night, and Spur injury
report reads like a Stephen King novel for S.A. HC Gregg Popovich. With Tim
Duncan down with his ankle injury, Manu Ginobili nursing a quad and PG Tony
Parker playing on a sore knee, the Spurs no longer look like the best team in
basketball. That being said, Duncan and Ginobili were upgraded to
questionable against the Celtics, while Parker is scheduled to return to duty.
The Spurs lost 4 in a row SU prior to facing the Celtics, the first such losing run
in 3 years for San Antonio. Houston has been playing well since the All-Star
break, logging a 13-5 SU and 12-5-1 spread mark. The Rockets have had a
tough time against the Spurs, losing the last 4 SU against in-state rival San
Antonio, and the Spurs are 3-1 SU & vs. the points last 4 visits to the Toyota
Center. The Spurs might be back at full strength for this game, and certainly
Popovich wants to preserve the top seed, which probably requires 4 or 5 wins
in the last 8 games. The Spurs played last night, but they have covered 9 of last
12 on the road in 2nd of back-to-back games. 10-SAN -6 124-121 (OT-209),
SAN -8' 108-95 (212), San +1 115-107 (212); 09-San -1 92-84 (195), Hou +6
116-109 (192), HOU +3' 109-104 (198), SAN -11 119-102 (198)
Denver 114 - SACRAMENTO 102—These two just met in Denver on
Wednesday night, a 14-point win-and-cover for the red-hot Nuggets.
Interestingly, the home team has won the last 9 in this series SU, and Denver
hasn’t covered at Arco since December of 2008. However, it seems folly to go
against the Nuggets the way the team has played since mid-February. The
Nuggets are 16-2 in their last 18 against the points, as George Karl has instilled
a true team concept, with 9 players averaging between 9 and 16 ppg in March.
Additionally, Denver shot 49% and scored 109 ppg last month. Sacramento hit
a rosy patch in winning 4 of last 5 SU, and return to full duty of G Tyreke Evans
is a plus (22 pts. & 7 assists vs. Denver, and limitations on his minutes have
been lifted). King G Marcus Thornton scored 23 ppg in 16 March games, and
PF DeMarcus Cousins had a nice month as well (16 ppg, 10 rpg, but his 4-foul
average limits his availability and defensive effectiveness). Denver is a
together, efficient side and should extend its run of fine play against Sacto team
that’s probably getting a head start on cleaning out its lockers and looking for
advice on which restaurants look good in Anaheim. 10-DEN -11 104-86 (208),
ATLANTA 91 - Boston 87—Boston is much like a fighter ahead on points
who caught a haymaker and is stumbling through the late rounds trying to hang
on for a decision. Things have not gone well for the Celtics since Danny Ainge
dealt Kendrick Perkins to OKC, as Boston is just 6-12 vs. the number last 18
prior to facing San Antonio last night. The Celts have not responded well in 2nd
night of back-to-back games this season, either, posting a 4-12 spread mark
when unrested (3-9 on the road). Boston posted a pair of big wins against
Atlanta this season, but those games were both played before Christmas, when
the Celtics were humming at 21-4 in mid-December and the Hawks were
figuring things out in a 16-11 start. Boston is just 5-7 SU in its last 12 games,
with 4 of the losses coming against teams that are currently out of the playoff
picture. Celt G Ray Allen (36% last 5 games) and F Paul Pierce (43% last 10)
still off their games, and word is Boston players were not happy about Perkins
leaving (he was Rajon Rondo’s best friend). Atlanta not a great play as a home
favorite (11-20 vs. the number), but Hawks capable of beating the Celtics, a
team they swept a season ago, even with return to action of Boston's Jermaine
O’Neal (big deal...it’s the other O’Neal they need healthy). 10-Bos +3 99-76
(193), BOS -7 102-90 (186); 09-Atl +9 97-86 (193), ATL -4 93-85 (195), Atl +4
102-96 (193), ATL -4 100-91 (190) CABLE TV—ESPN
Miami 95 - MINNESOTA 85—Minnesota regained services of star F Kevin
Love in loss to Chicago Wednesday, but despite getting 16 pts. & 9 boards,
Love didn’t impress (if he jumped higher than a soda can in that one, we missed
it). The Timberwolves have been unimpressive as a home dog this season,
dropping 15 of 24 when getting points at the Target Center, and Miami has been
very efficient in beating up on bad teams away from South Beach, logging a 16-
8 spread mark laying 4 pts. or more on the road this season. The Heat were
shocked at Cleveland on Tuesday, but snapped back by dominating
Washington Wednesday, shooting 58% against the Wizards. Minny didn’t slow
the Heat in first meeting, as Kurt Rambis’ squad shot only 37% and his starting
five were outscored by three Miami bench players (Eddie House, James Jones
& Udonis Haslem combined for 43 points to Minny regulars’ 41-pt. output). Look
for LeBron, D-Wade & Bosh to put a hurting on the Timberwolves in order to
keep on Chicago’s tail in race for first seed in the East. 10-MIA -16' 129-97
(193); 09-Min +8 91-88 (192), Mia -6' 97-84 (191)
NEW ORLEANS 192 - Memphis 91—Memphis has covered 6 in a row. But
might not want to lay points with Grizzlies in this situation. Memphis is just 3-6
as road chalk this season, and New Orleans hasn’t rolled over and played dead
despite injury to F David West, as the Hornets are 4-2 against the number last
6 at home, with SU wins against Portland & Dallas among those efforts. Carl
Landry has scored 21 ppg in three starts since West suffered a season-ending
ACL injury, and N.O. PG Chris Paul has averaged 22 pts. & 13 assists against
Memphis this season. Conversely, now-injured Rudy Gay was the leading
scorer for Memphis against the Hornets, and Zach Randolph was held in check
by New Orleans, as the Grizzly PF shot just 40% in 1st 2 meetings. Dueling
"totals" notes: the “over” is 5-1 in last 6 in this series, but Memphis is “under” 22-
16 on the road this season, while N.O. has been the most “under” team in the
league at 45-26. 10-NO -3' 103-102 (OT-185), No +5' 98-91 (185); 09-NO -3'
113-111 (204), No +7' 109-102 (OT-204), Mem +2' 104-100 (202), MEM -3' 107-
96 (206)
San Antonio 109 - HOUSTON 100—San Antonio’s once formidable lead
in the West was just 3½ games prior to hosting Boston last night, and Spur injury
report reads like a Stephen King novel for S.A. HC Gregg Popovich. With Tim
Duncan down with his ankle injury, Manu Ginobili nursing a quad and PG Tony
Parker playing on a sore knee, the Spurs no longer look like the best team in
basketball. That being said, Duncan and Ginobili were upgraded to
questionable against the Celtics, while Parker is scheduled to return to duty.
The Spurs lost 4 in a row SU prior to facing the Celtics, the first such losing run
in 3 years for San Antonio. Houston has been playing well since the All-Star
break, logging a 13-5 SU and 12-5-1 spread mark. The Rockets have had a
tough time against the Spurs, losing the last 4 SU against in-state rival San
Antonio, and the Spurs are 3-1 SU & vs. the points last 4 visits to the Toyota
Center. The Spurs might be back at full strength for this game, and certainly
Popovich wants to preserve the top seed, which probably requires 4 or 5 wins
in the last 8 games. The Spurs played last night, but they have covered 9 of last
12 on the road in 2nd of back-to-back games. 10-SAN -6 124-121 (OT-209),
SAN -8' 108-95 (212), San +1 115-107 (212); 09-San -1 92-84 (195), Hou +6
116-109 (192), HOU +3' 109-104 (198), SAN -11 119-102 (198)
Denver 114 - SACRAMENTO 102—These two just met in Denver on
Wednesday night, a 14-point win-and-cover for the red-hot Nuggets.
Interestingly, the home team has won the last 9 in this series SU, and Denver
hasn’t covered at Arco since December of 2008. However, it seems folly to go
against the Nuggets the way the team has played since mid-February. The
Nuggets are 16-2 in their last 18 against the points, as George Karl has instilled
a true team concept, with 9 players averaging between 9 and 16 ppg in March.
Additionally, Denver shot 49% and scored 109 ppg last month. Sacramento hit
a rosy patch in winning 4 of last 5 SU, and return to full duty of G Tyreke Evans
is a plus (22 pts. & 7 assists vs. Denver, and limitations on his minutes have
been lifted). King G Marcus Thornton scored 23 ppg in 16 March games, and
PF DeMarcus Cousins had a nice month as well (16 ppg, 10 rpg, but his 4-foul
average limits his availability and defensive effectiveness). Denver is a
together, efficient side and should extend its run of fine play against Sacto team
that’s probably getting a head start on cleaning out its lockers and looking for
advice on which restaurants look good in Anaheim. 10-DEN -11 104-86 (208),
Gold Sheet
PHOENIX 115 - LA Clippers 104—Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles,
recently, winning 10 of last 11 SU and covering 7 of last 9 (4-1 at Staples
Center). Phoenix’ playoff hopes were dashed with the 4-game losing streak the
Suns carry into this game, but the Clippers have decided to save all their energy
(especially on defense), shifted into neutral, and are coasting to the finish line
like an Indy racer that’s run out of gas. Vinny Del Negro’s Clips have covered
just 1 of last 8 games and have yielded 105 ppg, and Los Angeles hasn’t played
well on the road for some time, logging a 7-15 spread mark last 22 away from
home. Suns moved C Marcin Gortat and G Jared Dudley into the starting lineup,
which lit a bit of a fire under Vince Carter, who responded with a 28-point
outburst in loss to OKC Wednesday. Alvin Gentry’s experiment should garner
better results against Clipper side that’s had defensive problems against Suns
and PG Steve Nash in the past. "Totals" note: this series went “over” 9-2 last
11 meetings. 10-PHO -9' 116-108 (216), LA -1 108-103 (209), Pho +1' 108-99
(208); 09-Pho -2' 109-107 (217), PHO -9' 124-93 (214), PHO -9 125-112 (209),
Pho -4 127-101 (211)
Oklahoma City 106 - PORTLAND 102—Oklahoma City has hit the “go”
switch, winning 11 of last 12 SU and covering 9 of those games, as pivot
Kendrick Perkins has brought toughness inside to the Thunder. Leagueleading
scorer Kevin Durant has been good for 28 ppg against the Blazers this
year, while Thunder PG Russell Westbrook scored 31 ppg against Portland.
The Blazers have lost all three against OKC this season, including last Sunday’s
99-90 loss at the Ford Center despite a valiant 2nd-half comeback led by F
Gerald Wallace (40 pts. vs. the Thunder that night). Blazers are still jockeying
for position in the playoff ladder, as they could finish anywhere from 5th to 8th,
and not sure it matters to them who the opponent is. If OKC can control the
boards behind Perkins and Serge Ibaka, Portland gets swept. Must note that
Blazers are 6-1 as a small favorite at the Rose Garden this season (less than 4
pts.), one of the very few NBA teams with a winning mark in that category. 10-
Okc +5' 107-106 (OT-194), OKC -2' 110-108 (194), OKC -4' 99-90 (191); 09-Por
-3 83-74 (186), Okc -1 89-77 (191), Por +4 92-87 (190), POR -2 103-95 (186)
LA Lakers 108 - UTAH 94—Lakers are coming off a “massive” game
against Dallas last night on TNT, but hard-driving L.A. is showing no signs of
slowing down as it strives to hit the playoffs as the hottest team in the league.
Reeling Utah is on a 6-game losing streak, a run that includes a home loss to the
lowly Wizards. Truly, the bottom fell out for Utah when Jerry Sloan resigned, as
the Jazz have covered just 7 of their last 22 and have put forth some very
embarrassing efforts. The Jazz will miss PG Deron Williams (now with N.J.)
against the Lakers, as he scored 23 ppg and shot 67% in his two appearances
against L.A. this season, as he was an awkward matchup for the smaller Derek
Fisher. Utah HC Ty Corbin has more questions than answers as his team plays
out the string, as the injury list includes PG Devin Harris, F Andrei Kirilenko, and
G Raja Bell. Meanwhile, the Lakers are healthy and have lost just once since
the All-Star break prior to facing Dallas last night. L.A. 7-4 vs. the points when
unrested and 19-13 as a road favorite this season. 10-UTAH +1 102-96 (202),
LA -8 120-91 (199); 09-UTAH -2 102-94 (203), La +5' 96-81 (202), LA -4' 106-
92 (203) CABLE TV—ESPN
PHOENIX 115 - LA Clippers 104—Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles,
recently, winning 10 of last 11 SU and covering 7 of last 9 (4-1 at Staples
Center). Phoenix’ playoff hopes were dashed with the 4-game losing streak the
Suns carry into this game, but the Clippers have decided to save all their energy
(especially on defense), shifted into neutral, and are coasting to the finish line
like an Indy racer that’s run out of gas. Vinny Del Negro’s Clips have covered
just 1 of last 8 games and have yielded 105 ppg, and Los Angeles hasn’t played
well on the road for some time, logging a 7-15 spread mark last 22 away from
home. Suns moved C Marcin Gortat and G Jared Dudley into the starting lineup,
which lit a bit of a fire under Vince Carter, who responded with a 28-point
outburst in loss to OKC Wednesday. Alvin Gentry’s experiment should garner
better results against Clipper side that’s had defensive problems against Suns
and PG Steve Nash in the past. "Totals" note: this series went “over” 9-2 last
11 meetings. 10-PHO -9' 116-108 (216), LA -1 108-103 (209), Pho +1' 108-99
(208); 09-Pho -2' 109-107 (217), PHO -9' 124-93 (214), PHO -9 125-112 (209),
Pho -4 127-101 (211)
Oklahoma City 106 - PORTLAND 102—Oklahoma City has hit the “go”
switch, winning 11 of last 12 SU and covering 9 of those games, as pivot
Kendrick Perkins has brought toughness inside to the Thunder. Leagueleading
scorer Kevin Durant has been good for 28 ppg against the Blazers this
year, while Thunder PG Russell Westbrook scored 31 ppg against Portland.
The Blazers have lost all three against OKC this season, including last Sunday’s
99-90 loss at the Ford Center despite a valiant 2nd-half comeback led by F
Gerald Wallace (40 pts. vs. the Thunder that night). Blazers are still jockeying
for position in the playoff ladder, as they could finish anywhere from 5th to 8th,
and not sure it matters to them who the opponent is. If OKC can control the
boards behind Perkins and Serge Ibaka, Portland gets swept. Must note that
Blazers are 6-1 as a small favorite at the Rose Garden this season (less than 4
pts.), one of the very few NBA teams with a winning mark in that category. 10-
Okc +5' 107-106 (OT-194), OKC -2' 110-108 (194), OKC -4' 99-90 (191); 09-Por
-3 83-74 (186), Okc -1 89-77 (191), Por +4 92-87 (190), POR -2 103-95 (186)
LA Lakers 108 - UTAH 94—Lakers are coming off a “massive” game
against Dallas last night on TNT, but hard-driving L.A. is showing no signs of
slowing down as it strives to hit the playoffs as the hottest team in the league.
Reeling Utah is on a 6-game losing streak, a run that includes a home loss to the
lowly Wizards. Truly, the bottom fell out for Utah when Jerry Sloan resigned, as
the Jazz have covered just 7 of their last 22 and have put forth some very
embarrassing efforts. The Jazz will miss PG Deron Williams (now with N.J.)
against the Lakers, as he scored 23 ppg and shot 67% in his two appearances
against L.A. this season, as he was an awkward matchup for the smaller Derek
Fisher. Utah HC Ty Corbin has more questions than answers as his team plays
out the string, as the injury list includes PG Devin Harris, F Andrei Kirilenko, and
G Raja Bell. Meanwhile, the Lakers are healthy and have lost just once since
the All-Star break prior to facing Dallas last night. L.A. 7-4 vs. the points when
unrested and 19-13 as a road favorite this season. 10-UTAH +1 102-96 (202),
LA -8 120-91 (199); 09-UTAH -2 102-94 (203), La +5' 96-81 (202), LA -4' 106-
92 (203) CABLE TV—ESPN
Gold Sheet
OREGON 79 - Creighton 70—
Since the CBI is the only postseason event to
determine its champion with a best-of-three series in the final round, a quick review
of the brief history of that unique format is in order. In 2008, the host won all three
games in the finals, with Tulsa capturing the inaugural CBI title in a 70-64 Game
Three home win over Bradley as a 3½-point favorite. The final contenders split the
first two games again the following season. However, after a Game Two loss at
UTEP, visiting Oregon State upset the Miners (81-73 as a 9½-point dog) on that
same court a couple days later to capture the crown. VCU swept Saint Louis on its
way to the title last year, the Rams winning Game Two at Saint Louis (71-65 as a
1-point favorite) after a victory at Richmond in the opener.
While those disparate results don’t provide much help in predicting who’s going
to win the rubber match of this season’s finale between Oregon and Creighton,
there has been a dominant trend in the CBI games played so far this year. Home
teams are 15-1 straight up and 12-4 vs. the spread in the 16 tournament games
leading up to this deciding clash between the Ducks & Bluejays!
determine its champion with a best-of-three series in the final round, a quick review
of the brief history of that unique format is in order. In 2008, the host won all three
games in the finals, with Tulsa capturing the inaugural CBI title in a 70-64 Game
Three home win over Bradley as a 3½-point favorite. The final contenders split the
first two games again the following season. However, after a Game Two loss at
UTEP, visiting Oregon State upset the Miners (81-73 as a 9½-point dog) on that
same court a couple days later to capture the crown. VCU swept Saint Louis on its
way to the title last year, the Rams winning Game Two at Saint Louis (71-65 as a
1-point favorite) after a victory at Richmond in the opener.
While those disparate results don’t provide much help in predicting who’s going
to win the rubber match of this season’s finale between Oregon and Creighton,
there has been a dominant trend in the CBI games played so far this year. Home
teams are 15-1 straight up and 12-4 vs. the spread in the 16 tournament games
leading up to this deciding clash between the Ducks & Bluejays!
If that’s not reason enough to back host Oregon in this game, maybe the Ducks’
discombobulating defensive pressure is. After snagging just five steals in an 84-
76 Game One road loss at Omaha, Oregon scored 35 points off 20 Creighton
turnovers during Wednesday’s double-digit victory back at friendly Matthew Knight
Arena. Plus, the well-synched Ducks shot a robust 53% from the field and had five
players score between 9 and 18 points against the Bluejays that night.
This game has plenty of extra meaning for first-year Oregon head coach Dana
Altman, who arrived in Eugene after 16 seasons (and the school record for wins)
at Creighton. And we think it’s likely that the clever mentor will be able to figure out
a way to get the Ducks past his former team. After all, the Bluejays have now lost
eight straight as a true visitor. However, the pointspread (Oregon -4½ at
discombobulating defensive pressure is. After snagging just five steals in an 84-
76 Game One road loss at Omaha, Oregon scored 35 points off 20 Creighton
turnovers during Wednesday’s double-digit victory back at friendly Matthew Knight
Arena. Plus, the well-synched Ducks shot a robust 53% from the field and had five
players score between 9 and 18 points against the Bluejays that night.
This game has plenty of extra meaning for first-year Oregon head coach Dana
Altman, who arrived in Eugene after 16 seasons (and the school record for wins)
at Creighton. And we think it’s likely that the clever mentor will be able to figure out
a way to get the Ducks past his former team. After all, the Bluejays have now lost
eight straight as a true visitor. However, the pointspread (Oregon -4½ at
TGS
press time) is a little puffy after the Ducks’ decisive victory in Game Two. So
perhaps the better percentage play might be “over” the total points, as there’s a
good chance potent, well-coached Creighton will be in a much better rhythm
offensively after foul trouble limited star 6-7 frosh F Doug McDermott (head coach
Greg’s son; team-leading 14.9 ppg & 7.3 rpg) to just 15 minutes of action (and only
6 points & 2 boards) and contributed to a very slow start during Wednesday’s
setback.
perhaps the better percentage play might be “over” the total points, as there’s a
good chance potent, well-coached Creighton will be in a much better rhythm
offensively after foul trouble limited star 6-7 frosh F Doug McDermott (head coach
Greg’s son; team-leading 14.9 ppg & 7.3 rpg) to just 15 minutes of action (and only
6 points & 2 boards) and contributed to a very slow start during Wednesday’s
setback.
OC DOOLEY
“1 UNIT’ COLLEGE SYSTEM TOTAL (Creighton at Oregon UNDER 141 in a 10:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on HD-Net): This is the third and final game of the CBI Championship series where we already have seen offensive contrasts. In the opener which was played on Creighton’s home floor the Blue Jays offense exploded for 84 points in what resulted in both a straight-up and spread triumph. Two night’s ago as this series shifted out west Oregon switched their DEFENSE from a zone that was severely beaten to a man-to-man setup that held down Creighton to just 58 points on the scoreboard. With the FBZ being the only college basketball postseason tournament that has a best-of-three championship format, one of the keys to success has to do with head coaches who have the ability to make adjustments on the fly. On Wednesday evening it was Oregon who made the successful adjustments as they held down a Creighton attack that had been lighting up the scoreboard with lofty point counts (84, 82, 102, 85) during this FBZ tourney. On Wednesday Oregon held Creighton to a grand total of only 21 points in the entire second-half while the pair of Blue Jays lead scorers scored a grand total of only 8 combined points. This evening the “visitor” attempts to win a third consecutive FBZ Championship series and for that to happen, it is Creighton who will have to flex their defense who for the entire season to date has permitted on average just 65 points per contest. Creighton plays in the Missouri Valley Conference which has always been a defensive-oriented league highlighted by physical play. Oregon’s current head coach Dana Altman actually spent 16 long years at the helm of the Creighton program so he is certainly familiar with how things work in the Missouri Valley. The new head coach of Creighton is the same Greg McDermott who recently was at the helm of a “conservative” Northern Iowa program known for pulling up a shocking NCAA second-round upset of Kansas in 2010. Something has to give in tonight’s FBZ Championship tilt as Creighton is seeking their first outright road win since late January, while Oregon actually started this campaign being forecast as a Pac-10 Conference bottom-feeder. With everything at stake in this winner-take-all situation, normally it is the side the exhibits the better defense that walks away with the triumph. Repeating this series was tied on Wednesday when Oregon won by a 71-58 count on their own home floor. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (52-22 past five years with a posted total in the 140’s) that takes a team like Creighton “revenging” a same season loss against an opponent UNDER the total, when facing a squad coming off a double-digit margin of victory at home
“1 UNIT’ COLLEGE SYSTEM TOTAL (Creighton at Oregon UNDER 141 in a 10:05 eastern tipoff broadcast on HD-Net): This is the third and final game of the CBI Championship series where we already have seen offensive contrasts. In the opener which was played on Creighton’s home floor the Blue Jays offense exploded for 84 points in what resulted in both a straight-up and spread triumph. Two night’s ago as this series shifted out west Oregon switched their DEFENSE from a zone that was severely beaten to a man-to-man setup that held down Creighton to just 58 points on the scoreboard. With the FBZ being the only college basketball postseason tournament that has a best-of-three championship format, one of the keys to success has to do with head coaches who have the ability to make adjustments on the fly. On Wednesday evening it was Oregon who made the successful adjustments as they held down a Creighton attack that had been lighting up the scoreboard with lofty point counts (84, 82, 102, 85) during this FBZ tourney. On Wednesday Oregon held Creighton to a grand total of only 21 points in the entire second-half while the pair of Blue Jays lead scorers scored a grand total of only 8 combined points. This evening the “visitor” attempts to win a third consecutive FBZ Championship series and for that to happen, it is Creighton who will have to flex their defense who for the entire season to date has permitted on average just 65 points per contest. Creighton plays in the Missouri Valley Conference which has always been a defensive-oriented league highlighted by physical play. Oregon’s current head coach Dana Altman actually spent 16 long years at the helm of the Creighton program so he is certainly familiar with how things work in the Missouri Valley. The new head coach of Creighton is the same Greg McDermott who recently was at the helm of a “conservative” Northern Iowa program known for pulling up a shocking NCAA second-round upset of Kansas in 2010. Something has to give in tonight’s FBZ Championship tilt as Creighton is seeking their first outright road win since late January, while Oregon actually started this campaign being forecast as a Pac-10 Conference bottom-feeder. With everything at stake in this winner-take-all situation, normally it is the side the exhibits the better defense that walks away with the triumph. Repeating this series was tied on Wednesday when Oregon won by a 71-58 count on their own home floor. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (52-22 past five years with a posted total in the 140’s) that takes a team like Creighton “revenging” a same season loss against an opponent UNDER the total, when facing a squad coming off a double-digit margin of victory at home
