NBA
Write-Up
Friday, April 1
Hot Teams
-- 76ers won their last two games, by 12-11 points.
-- Cavaliers covered five of their last seven games.
-- Indiana won/covered four of its last five home games. Milwaukee covered six of its last eight games overall.
-- Charlotte won its last four games, last two by a point each.
-- Hawks won last three games, covered five of last six.
-- Miami won six of last seven games, but covered two of its last seven road games.
-- New Orleans won three of its last four games.
-- Chicago covered seven of its last eight road games.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games, covering last five.
-- Houston won six of its last eight games.
-- Nuggets won last four games, covered nine of last ten. Sacramento won four of its last five games.
-- Suns lost last four games, by 6-8-3-18 points.
-- Portland won/covered its last six home games. Thunder won last five games, covered last five away games.
-- Lakers won last eight games, covered six of last seven on road.
Cold Teams
-- Nets lost eight of last nine games, but covered three of four on road.
-- Washington lost 11 of its last 13 games.
-- Orlando lost last two games, covered one of last eight.
-- Detroit lost four of its last five games.
-- Celtics are 2-3 in last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost its last eight games, but covered three of last four.
-- Clippers covered once in last eight games.
-- Utah lost its last six games, failing to cover last five.
Totals
-- Three of last four New Jersey games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Indiana home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Charlotte road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Chicago games went over the total. Under is 5-2 in last seven Detroit games.
-- Last three Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Memphis road games went over the total.
-- Four of Spurs' last five games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Denver games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Thunder games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Laker games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Celtics are 1-8 vs spread on road if they won night before.
-- San Antonio is 8-4-2 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Lakers are 4-2-1 vs spread if they won the night before.
Write-Up
Friday, April 1
Hot Teams
-- 76ers won their last two games, by 12-11 points.
-- Cavaliers covered five of their last seven games.
-- Indiana won/covered four of its last five home games. Milwaukee covered six of its last eight games overall.
-- Charlotte won its last four games, last two by a point each.
-- Hawks won last three games, covered five of last six.
-- Miami won six of last seven games, but covered two of its last seven road games.
-- New Orleans won three of its last four games.
-- Chicago covered seven of its last eight road games.
-- Grizzlies won five of last six games, covering last five.
-- Houston won six of its last eight games.
-- Nuggets won last four games, covered nine of last ten. Sacramento won four of its last five games.
-- Suns lost last four games, by 6-8-3-18 points.
-- Portland won/covered its last six home games. Thunder won last five games, covered last five away games.
-- Lakers won last eight games, covered six of last seven on road.
Cold Teams
-- Nets lost eight of last nine games, but covered three of four on road.
-- Washington lost 11 of its last 13 games.
-- Orlando lost last two games, covered one of last eight.
-- Detroit lost four of its last five games.
-- Celtics are 2-3 in last five games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost its last eight games, but covered three of last four.
-- Clippers covered once in last eight games.
-- Utah lost its last six games, failing to cover last five.
Totals
-- Three of last four New Jersey games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Indiana home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Charlotte road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Chicago games went over the total. Under is 5-2 in last seven Detroit games.
-- Last three Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Memphis road games went over the total.
-- Four of Spurs' last five games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Denver games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Thunder games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Laker games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Celtics are 1-8 vs spread on road if they won night before.
-- San Antonio is 8-4-2 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Lakers are 4-2-1 vs spread if they won the night before.
NCAAB
Write-Up
Friday, April 1
Bears repeating that Creighton has now lost last eight true road games, with last win on foreign soil Jan 9 at Evansville. Home team won both Creighton-Oregon games in this series, with Ducks scoring 35 points off 20 Bluejay turnovers in 71-58 Game 2 win. Oregon covered four of its last five at home- they've taken 27 less FTs than Creighton in series, but they're +11 in turnovers (32-21). Pac-10 home favorites of 7 points or less are 9-6 vs spread. MVC road dogs of 7 or less points are 10-14.
Write-Up
Friday, April 1
Bears repeating that Creighton has now lost last eight true road games, with last win on foreign soil Jan 9 at Evansville. Home team won both Creighton-Oregon games in this series, with Ducks scoring 35 points off 20 Bluejay turnovers in 71-58 Game 2 win. Oregon covered four of its last five at home- they've taken 27 less FTs than Creighton in series, but they're +11 in turnovers (32-21). Pac-10 home favorites of 7 points or less are 9-6 vs spread. MVC road dogs of 7 or less points are 10-14.
DCI NBA
Season
Straight Up: 730-318 (.697)
ATS: 555-538 (.508)
ATS Vary Units: 1302-1312 (.498)
Over/Under: 563-549 (.506)
Over/Under Vary Units: 671-656 (.506)
INDIANA 95, Milwaukee 92
ORLANDO 97, Charlotte 86
PHILADELPHIA 103, New Jersey 90
WASHINGTON 102, Cleveland 98
Chicago 98, DETROIT 89
ATLANTA 88, Boston 87
Miami 106, MINNESOTA 96
Memphis vs. NEW ORLEANS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HOUSTON 105, San Antonio 103
PHOENIX 109, L.A. Clippers 102
PORTLAND 98, Oklahoma City 97
Denver 110, SACRAMENTO 104
L.A. Lakers 104, UTAH 95
Season
Straight Up: 730-318 (.697)
ATS: 555-538 (.508)
ATS Vary Units: 1302-1312 (.498)
Over/Under: 563-549 (.506)
Over/Under Vary Units: 671-656 (.506)
INDIANA 95, Milwaukee 92
ORLANDO 97, Charlotte 86
PHILADELPHIA 103, New Jersey 90
WASHINGTON 102, Cleveland 98
Chicago 98, DETROIT 89
ATLANTA 88, Boston 87
Miami 106, MINNESOTA 96
Memphis vs. NEW ORLEANS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HOUSTON 105, San Antonio 103
PHOENIX 109, L.A. Clippers 102
PORTLAND 98, Oklahoma City 97
Denver 110, SACRAMENTO 104
L.A. Lakers 104, UTAH 95
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston –1½ +140 over TEXAS
Playing in the ultra-competitive American League East, Boston finished seven games behind division-winner Tampa Bay last season so it should come as no surprise that general manager Theo Epstein pushed all of his chips to the middle of the table this past winter and helped Boston become the AL's clear-cut offseason winner. Epstein traded for San Diego Padres' slugger Adrian Gonzalez. Just a few days later he signed free agent outfielder Carl Crawford. Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler were also added to bolster the pen. Nice additions to a lineup that already features guys like Kevin Youkillis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Jon Lester starts the opener and he ranks amongst the leagues best. Lester’s ground-ball profile continues to improve every year. Last season he struck out 220 batters in 203 IP. He had an outstanding ERA and an even more impressive WHIP of 1.20. Lester is consistently dominant on the mound. Today, he’ll face C.J. Wilson. Wilson effectively made the transition from a relief role to the starting rotation last season, though his skills were not as impressive as his surface stats. His ERA outperformed his xERA (expected ERA) and that’s a sure sign that his surface stats were very misleading. His 74% strand rate is high and reason for concern, as is his receding ground-ball rate. While Wilson showed improvement in the second half, his pedestrian skills inspire skepticism in his ability to repeat his 2010 performance. The 130-IP increase in workload merely adds to that skepticism. Buyer beware. Boston gets out of the gate impressively here. Play: Boston –1½ +140 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +140 over TEXAS
Playing in the ultra-competitive American League East, Boston finished seven games behind division-winner Tampa Bay last season so it should come as no surprise that general manager Theo Epstein pushed all of his chips to the middle of the table this past winter and helped Boston become the AL's clear-cut offseason winner. Epstein traded for San Diego Padres' slugger Adrian Gonzalez. Just a few days later he signed free agent outfielder Carl Crawford. Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler were also added to bolster the pen. Nice additions to a lineup that already features guys like Kevin Youkillis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Jon Lester starts the opener and he ranks amongst the leagues best. Lester’s ground-ball profile continues to improve every year. Last season he struck out 220 batters in 203 IP. He had an outstanding ERA and an even more impressive WHIP of 1.20. Lester is consistently dominant on the mound. Today, he’ll face C.J. Wilson. Wilson effectively made the transition from a relief role to the starting rotation last season, though his skills were not as impressive as his surface stats. His ERA outperformed his xERA (expected ERA) and that’s a sure sign that his surface stats were very misleading. His 74% strand rate is high and reason for concern, as is his receding ground-ball rate. While Wilson showed improvement in the second half, his pedestrian skills inspire skepticism in his ability to repeat his 2010 performance. The 130-IP increase in workload merely adds to that skepticism. Buyer beware. Boston gets out of the gate impressively here. Play: Boston –1½ +140 (Risking 2 units).
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Florida (-170) over New York Mets (Top Play of the Day)
Florida pitcher, Josh Johnson is 7-1 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 2.74 and he also had an ERA of 1.57 in all home games last season. New York pitcher, Mike Pelfrey has lost 14 of the last 21 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he is 1-6 vs. Florida over his career with an ERA of 5.32.
Colorado (-190) over Arizona
Arizona has lost 28 of the last 32 games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 29 of the last 38 road games vs. division opponents. Colorado pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez has won 20 of the last 23 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he was 9-2 at home last year with an ERA of 3.19.
Tampa Bay (-185) over Baltimore
Tampa Bay pitcher, David Price has won 19 of the last 23 games vs. division opponents and he had an ERA of 2.26 in all home games last season. Baltimore pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie has lost 23 of the last 29 games vs. division opponents and he has also lost 7 of the last 11 games vs. Tampa Bay
Florida (-170) over New York Mets (Top Play of the Day)
Florida pitcher, Josh Johnson is 7-1 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 2.74 and he also had an ERA of 1.57 in all home games last season. New York pitcher, Mike Pelfrey has lost 14 of the last 21 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he is 1-6 vs. Florida over his career with an ERA of 5.32.
Colorado (-190) over Arizona
Arizona has lost 28 of the last 32 games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 29 of the last 38 road games vs. division opponents. Colorado pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez has won 20 of the last 23 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he was 9-2 at home last year with an ERA of 3.19.
Tampa Bay (-185) over Baltimore
Tampa Bay pitcher, David Price has won 19 of the last 23 games vs. division opponents and he had an ERA of 2.26 in all home games last season. Baltimore pitcher, Jeremy Guthrie has lost 23 of the last 29 games vs. division opponents and he has also lost 7 of the last 11 games vs. Tampa Bay
