JIMMY BOYD
Mar 25 '16, 7:10 PM
NCAA-B | Iowa State vs Virginia
Play on: Virginia -5 -105
Game Analysis
4* NCAA Tournament ATS No Brainer on Virginia -
Virginia is a team that simply isn't getting the respect they deserve here against the Cyclones. The Cavaliers have gone 15-3 over their last 18 games and those 3 losses came by a combined 8 points. Iowa State is a quality team, but are going to be outmatched in this one. The Cyclones have had an easy route to the Sweet 16, having played Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock. Even with those two wins, Iowa State is just 7-7 over their last 14.
The key here is how these two teams matchup. Iowa State wants to push the pace and speed the game up. That's not something you want to do against a dominant defensive team like Virginia. The Cavaliers aren't known for having a great offense, but they were actually one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country. Iowa State doesn't play any defense and has zero to no depth, which I believe will be a huge factor with Virginia's aggressive style. Both offense should be able to score, the key is that the Cavaliers will the ones getting more stops on the defensive side of the ball. Lay the points!
Mar 25 '16, 7:10 PM
NCAA-B | Iowa State vs Virginia
Play on: Virginia -5 -105
Game Analysis
4* NCAA Tournament ATS No Brainer on Virginia -
Virginia is a team that simply isn't getting the respect they deserve here against the Cyclones. The Cavaliers have gone 15-3 over their last 18 games and those 3 losses came by a combined 8 points. Iowa State is a quality team, but are going to be outmatched in this one. The Cyclones have had an easy route to the Sweet 16, having played Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock. Even with those two wins, Iowa State is just 7-7 over their last 14.
The key here is how these two teams matchup. Iowa State wants to push the pace and speed the game up. That's not something you want to do against a dominant defensive team like Virginia. The Cavaliers aren't known for having a great offense, but they were actually one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country. Iowa State doesn't play any defense and has zero to no depth, which I believe will be a huge factor with Virginia's aggressive style. Both offense should be able to score, the key is that the Cavaliers will the ones getting more stops on the defensive side of the ball. Lay the points!
BEN BURNS GOY
Pick
innacle @ 4.5 -106 Syracuse
I'm playing on SYRACUSE. The Orange are getting very little respect and I believe they're seriously under-valued. True, Gonzaga has a far better overall record. That doesn't tell the whole story though. This is a battle-tested Syracuse team, one which has squared off against many of the top teams in the country. Indeed, the Orange have played eight games against teams in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has played only one game against a team in the Sweet 16, a loss against Texas A&M, a team which Syracuse beat the very next day. So, comparing the overall records isn't exactly relevant. Gonzaga is indeed a very good team, worthy of much respect. The Orange have arugably been as dominant as any team in the tournament though. Don't believe it? Check this out. The Orange have allowed 50 and 51 points. That average of 50.5 allowed, is the fewest ppg of any Sweet 16 team. They've won their two games by a combined 44 points and that 22-point average margin of victory is tied for second. As Syracuse's Frank Howard pointed out: "Sometimes our games aren’t the most fun to watch maybe. But ... Winning’s fun." The Orange are 10-2 ATS over the years as a neutral court underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. I really like the way they're playing right now and expect all their "big game experience" to serve them well on Friday night. 10* Sweet 16 B.O.B.
Pick
innacle @ 4.5 -106 SyracuseI'm playing on SYRACUSE. The Orange are getting very little respect and I believe they're seriously under-valued. True, Gonzaga has a far better overall record. That doesn't tell the whole story though. This is a battle-tested Syracuse team, one which has squared off against many of the top teams in the country. Indeed, the Orange have played eight games against teams in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has played only one game against a team in the Sweet 16, a loss against Texas A&M, a team which Syracuse beat the very next day. So, comparing the overall records isn't exactly relevant. Gonzaga is indeed a very good team, worthy of much respect. The Orange have arugably been as dominant as any team in the tournament though. Don't believe it? Check this out. The Orange have allowed 50 and 51 points. That average of 50.5 allowed, is the fewest ppg of any Sweet 16 team. They've won their two games by a combined 44 points and that 22-point average margin of victory is tied for second. As Syracuse's Frank Howard pointed out: "Sometimes our games aren’t the most fun to watch maybe. But ... Winning’s fun." The Orange are 10-2 ATS over the years as a neutral court underdog in the 3.5 to 6 range. I really like the way they're playing right now and expect all their "big game experience" to serve them well on Friday night. 10* Sweet 16 B.O.B.
Steve Merril
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) VIRGINIA -6 (vs. Iowa State) - 7:10 pm ET (CBS) #874
Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best. The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against a Virginia team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court. Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice. Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points. Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams. Iowa State scores 55.5% of their points from 2-point range, but only 48.7% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc.
Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo. The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.5 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land. The Cyclones are clueless when they are forced to play half court basketball, and Virginia’s style will simply frustrate Iowa State. The Cavaliers’ offense scores 56.3% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up extremely well against Iowa State’s defense as 54.3% of the points scored on the Cyclones come from inside the arc. The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace. We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Friday night.
Play VIRGINIA (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) WISCONSIN +1.5 (vs. Notre Dame) - 7:25 pm ET (TBS) #871
Notre Dame needed to rally from behind to win their first two tournament games. The Irish trailed Michigan by 12 points at the half before winning 70-63. Notre Dame trailed Stephen F. Austin by 5 points with two minutes to play before winning 76-75 on a last-second tip-in. Notre Dame is barely surviving, and tonight’s game against Wisconsin presents the Irish with a terrible match-up. Notre Dame doesn’t play at a fast tempo, but the Irish are certainly a much better offensive team when they can get out and run while getting easy baskets in transition. When the Irish are forced into half court basketball, their offense struggles mightily. Notre Dame is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 14.1 points per game. The posted total of 131 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering this is the lowest posted total on a Notre Dame game this season.
Wisconsin also survived their two tournaments games, but the Badgers faced much tougher opponents in Pittsburgh and Xavier. Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four. The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense. Wisconsin has held 28 of their 34 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season. Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field. Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession. My power ratings make this game a Pick'em, so we’ll take the value with the Badgers as an underdog in this game on Friday night.
Play WISCONSIN (+) as a 3% play.
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) VIRGINIA -6 (vs. Iowa State) - 7:10 pm ET (CBS) #874
Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best. The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court. The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against a Virginia team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court. Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice. Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points. Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams. Iowa State scores 55.5% of their points from 2-point range, but only 48.7% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc.
Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo. The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.5 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land. The Cyclones are clueless when they are forced to play half court basketball, and Virginia’s style will simply frustrate Iowa State. The Cavaliers’ offense scores 56.3% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up extremely well against Iowa State’s defense as 54.3% of the points scored on the Cyclones come from inside the arc. The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace. We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Friday night.
Play VIRGINIA (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) WISCONSIN +1.5 (vs. Notre Dame) - 7:25 pm ET (TBS) #871
Notre Dame needed to rally from behind to win their first two tournament games. The Irish trailed Michigan by 12 points at the half before winning 70-63. Notre Dame trailed Stephen F. Austin by 5 points with two minutes to play before winning 76-75 on a last-second tip-in. Notre Dame is barely surviving, and tonight’s game against Wisconsin presents the Irish with a terrible match-up. Notre Dame doesn’t play at a fast tempo, but the Irish are certainly a much better offensive team when they can get out and run while getting easy baskets in transition. When the Irish are forced into half court basketball, their offense struggles mightily. Notre Dame is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 14.1 points per game. The posted total of 131 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering this is the lowest posted total on a Notre Dame game this season.
Wisconsin also survived their two tournaments games, but the Badgers faced much tougher opponents in Pittsburgh and Xavier. Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four. The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense. Wisconsin has held 28 of their 34 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season. Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field. Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession. My power ratings make this game a Pick'em, so we’ll take the value with the Badgers as an underdog in this game on Friday night.
Play WISCONSIN (+) as a 3% play.
