Dave Essler
848 Oregon ML vs
847 Oklahoma St.Analysis: More reasoning later, and if this line stays up over -1.5 it's certainly fine to play the ML. I thought about not even putting it out now (we bet it long term earlier) but it'd be a shame not to share a play this strong. Love Altman as a coach much better than Travis Ford. Another thing people may overlook is this game in in Omaha - yes, it's closer to Oklahoma State - but Altman coached three miles from this arena at Creighton for a long time. Oregon will be well represented. Often times a PG can carry a team for a while, and Young is a very good one. He transferred from Houston two years ago (close to Nebraska, or close-er). He's a Senior (it matters) and can score from anywhere on the court.
9:40AM EST-If you made me bet the Kansas game I would have to look at the over. The Jayhawks will force the tempo, and both teams score inside and get to the line. New Mexico, due to the length, MAY grab a few extra rebounds. I always worry about youth (Kansas), and if you made me take a side I'd take the points, but reluctantly. The game COULD start slow, but regardless of the score the last 10:00 of the game should pick up. I Kansas is ahead New Mexico has to push, and if New Mexico is ahead Kansas WILL. New Mexico has turnover issues, which is why I can't QUITE get to taking them.
The UGA/MSU game is a tough one. We can't bet against Izzo in a tournament, but that's clearly factored into the line here. UGA does have everyone back and probably plays loose since people expect them to lose. My inclination here is UGA/under, knowing that the public will be all over the over and the Spartans. It's one of those I've talked about as recently as Wednesday when I said you could blindly play both dogs in the play-in games, or take ALL the dogs the first two days of this tournament. With that in mind - I HAVE done that many times - but the justification for a "premium" set of plays might not be something many could wrap their heads around. However, it IS how many bettors actually bet.
In the Northern Iowa game, the sad part is that the ONLY type of team that can beat NI is a team that gets hot from behind the arc. This season Wyoming isn't as one-dimensional as they have been in years' past, but they are SO disciplined it's not even funny. I think should the game play out as the spread indicates, the total is probably too high. But, I worry about the closeness of the game and late free throws. So, perhaps a 1H under bet and any additional bets on that game might depend on the HT score.
It's trendy to take Buffalo, and they're a very well coached team that doesn't have too many holes on offense or defense. WVU is not a ton taller, so the obvious thing here is whether Buffalo can protect the ball from WVU's pressure defense, because WVU can struggle on offense. I really wanted to follow the lemmings here on Buffalo but I can't quite get there seeing as how their back court is not very experienced - tough game that I don't think hits the total in spite of the pace, which will be fast. MAYBE a 1H under here, too, since there might be the usual and customary "feeling out process". 2H bets seem to be the operative thing here this morning. I SHOULD be around MOST of the day, so hopefully can pass any on that look doable, but NOT to chase or just to bet. We won 5 and lost 4 yesterday, but went backwards unit-wise - and left a couple off - so we NEED to tighten up a bit, or I do.
10:45AM-In response to G27's question re the Shockers game, I lean over in the 1H. Not something that's in character for me or a tournament game, but if the Shockers have a weakness it's perimeter defense, and Indiana has no defense, period. Hoosiers will have to run and both teams protect the ball pretty well, so more meaningful possessions, IMO.
11:10AM-I do like Providence to beat Dayton. The Flyers are a tough team to fade and well coached, but the Friars (Friars/Flyers, hmm) have too much size and get to the FT line a ton, so no chance I can take Dayton. Having said that, laying points is not my thing and we saw yesterday how several of those close games the ML DID matter. Not ready to 2* a -160 bet (personally, I might), yet. In other matters, Oregon just went for -2 to +1. That's a sick amount of money that steamed Oklahoma State. I DOUBT it gets MUCH worse, because the books will not want to have + money on the ML on both sides. OR, it's a ridiculous set up. Either way, we'll keep an eye on that one for sure. The more I look at that Witchita State game, the more I like Indiana. The matchup favors them, at least 1H and I considered a teaser with Indiana and Wyoming, if for no other reason, math. Taking Wyoming +11.5 or so get's you 10% of the� projected points for the game.
Here's two more I bet for Friday, and the rest coming at they materialize.
| 855 Davidson 2.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 856 Iowa | |
Analysis: Making this an official 2* at +2.5 (would like more, but) and asking Tom to update it. Davidson's stock sunk big-time when they were crushed by VCU - but two things. VCU is an excellent defensive team, and they were hammered not long ago at Davidson so there was the revenge thing going on, too. It's probably good they lost, because they hadn't since St. Bonaventure beat them by one February 4th. Sometimes it takes the pressure off, and that's exactly what happened here. We know what Davidson does, but let's look at Iowa. They beat nobody coming down the stretch. They won a lot, but against Rutgers a couple of times, Penn State, N'western, etc. Then, in the Conference Tournament they HAD to have bigger expectations than losing to Penn State in the first round. So, perhaps questioning themselves a bit. Teams that beat them all shoot three's - Wisconsin twice, Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan State, and Purdue. IMO this will totally be Iowa's size and free throw shooting against Davidson's outside shooting. I love those matchups because I want my team to only have to make four shots to get to 12 points while the other team has to make six. Davidson does NOT turn the ball over - and because Iowa hasn't played a team THIS one-dimensional, this is ANOTHER 1H bet, too.
| 826 Virginia / 825 BelmontOVER 124.5 Bookmaker.com | | | Analysis: This number is smaller than I thought it would be - and not waiting. It's smaller because Virginia is known for their defense - and yes, they play good defense. But, Belmont is one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation - and they'll run regardless of what UVA does (plays slow). They're simply going to live or die by what they do. And what they don't do, which is play defense. But, you're looking at an UVA team that gave up 60 or so to Syracuse, L'ville, and V-tech, all teams that can't score. They don't play teams like Belmont very often - and in fact played Davidson, probably the next best thing, back in the end of December, at home. The final: 83-72. On the flip side, I don't see how Belmont can stop UVA from getting more than their fare share here. They're (Virginia) not going to want a close game late and risk having Belmont make a few quick shots, so I suspect they speed things up A LITTLE (which is all it will take) early, if for no other reason than the fact the their looks will be there. Simply contrasting styles and not at home where UVA would probably dictate the pace more. | |
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