VegasButcher - NBA
Sacramento Kings -4
Sixers are a terrible shooting team ranking 30th in the league in eFG% and 30th in Off-Efficiency. They’re also 30th in TO-rate offensively. Typically when this team stays close in a game is when they crash the offensive glass and get a number of second-hand opportunities. Take their last game against the Bulls as an example. Philly shot below 35% from the field while allowing 46% to the Bulls, yet the game went to OT. The 17 offensive rebounds, +17 shot-attempt differential and +5 FT-attempt differential had a lot to do with it. Of course Philly also were a +8 in TO-margin as they only had 10 TO’s in the game, one of their lower marks. I think it’s unrealistic to expect the Sixers to have so few TO’s in two consecutive games as I see some regression to the mean taking place here. In addition, keep in mind that the Kings are one of the best rebounding teams in the league (#9 ORB% and #6 DRB%) and also rank #1 in getting to the FT-line offensively. I expect Sacramento to do a much better job of keeping Philly off the offensive glass while also having a positive margin in FT-attempts than the Bulls. If that’s the case, hard to see Philly covering this short number.
Orlando Magic +5
On Sunday, Orlando won at home in this matchup 103 – 98 as a +2.5 home underdog. Of course they were missing Vucevic while Boston had Isaiah Thomas at their disposal. Vucevic will play tonight while Thomas will once again be out for the Celtics. Boston survived without Thomas against a ‘fatigued’ Grizzlies squad (Memphis gave all of their key players a game-off yesterday after that debacle in Boston) but a younger and healthier Orlando team should pose a bigger challenge. Vucevic should be able to dominate the paint as Boston simply lacks the size to match up with him. In addition, I expect Oladipo to guard Bradley today, who is the de-facto primary weapon on offense with neither Thomas nor Sullinger available for the game. Oladipo has the ability to be a very good defender and hopefully he plays hard on that side of the court tonight. If that’s the case, Boston won’t have an easy time on the offensive end as they lack shooters, ranking 20th in eFG% on the season. Unlike Boston, Orlando has a few go-to guys who can score: Vucevic, Harris, and Oladipo. Taking away one offensive weapon won’t hinder this offense completely, and against a Boston team that lacks size in the paint, I like Orlando to get a number of easy buckets at the rim. Should be a pretty close game but I believe we have some solid ‘value’ with the points in this one.
Dallas Mavericks -2.5
The ‘easy’ play is to take the Clippers with the points in this game. After all, we’ve just watched Paul and Co. dominate Westbrook and OKC Thunder on the road, while Dallas got absolutely embarrassed by the Cavs on Tuesday night. Of course nothing is easy in NBA. This is a classic ‘let down’ spot for the Clippers. Paul came to play against Westbrook, as he scored 33 points on 11-19 from the field while dominating Westbrook all night long. On plays where Paul was the defender, Westbrook was only 2 for 8 from the field for 7 points while committing 7 of his 10 turnovers. Now that’s impressive. Of course to shut down Wesbrook this way you have to really exert a lot of energy throughout the game. The question is, can we expect the same kind of effort out of Paul tonight? Tonight’s game won’t be on National TV like the game @ OKC and Paul won’t have a point to prove (‘why he’s not considered in the MVP race the way Westbrook is) as no-one on the Mavs squad is being involved in the “MVP discussions”. I highly doubt that we’ll see the same kind of effort out of him as we saw on Thursday. Besides, Paul will be facing off against another “MVP candidate” in James Harden on Sunday, a game that WILL BE broadcast on ABC. Maybe tonight’s isn’t just a ‘let down’ spot, but it’s also a potential ‘sandwich’ game for Paul and the Clippers. I honestly expect Chris Paul to play at a lower intensity level tonight, especially after he tweaked his ankle against OKC. The team that I don’t expect to play at a low intensity level though are the Mavs. To get blown out by 33 points on your own home-court is simply embarrassing. To have to listen to a newcomer Amare Stoudemire question the team’s worth ethic and dedication can’t sit well. And to have to wait 3 days before the next game has got to be excruciating. If the Mavs don’t play this game like their ‘playoff lives’ depend on it, I’d be very surprised. I expect a very strong effort out of this team tonight. They lost to LAC by 20 in the first meeting when Blake Griffin dominated the game. They lost to LAC by 17 in the 2nd meeting when Griffin was out but Jamal Crawford put up 22 points off the bench. Now they’ll face this Clippers squad without either Griffin or Crawford, and with Chris Paul coming off what probably was his best game of the year on both sides of the court. If Dallas doesn’t exact some ‘revenge’ tonight and salvage at least one game from this season-series, I’d be pretty surprised.
Sacramento Kings -4
Sixers are a terrible shooting team ranking 30th in the league in eFG% and 30th in Off-Efficiency. They’re also 30th in TO-rate offensively. Typically when this team stays close in a game is when they crash the offensive glass and get a number of second-hand opportunities. Take their last game against the Bulls as an example. Philly shot below 35% from the field while allowing 46% to the Bulls, yet the game went to OT. The 17 offensive rebounds, +17 shot-attempt differential and +5 FT-attempt differential had a lot to do with it. Of course Philly also were a +8 in TO-margin as they only had 10 TO’s in the game, one of their lower marks. I think it’s unrealistic to expect the Sixers to have so few TO’s in two consecutive games as I see some regression to the mean taking place here. In addition, keep in mind that the Kings are one of the best rebounding teams in the league (#9 ORB% and #6 DRB%) and also rank #1 in getting to the FT-line offensively. I expect Sacramento to do a much better job of keeping Philly off the offensive glass while also having a positive margin in FT-attempts than the Bulls. If that’s the case, hard to see Philly covering this short number.
Orlando Magic +5
On Sunday, Orlando won at home in this matchup 103 – 98 as a +2.5 home underdog. Of course they were missing Vucevic while Boston had Isaiah Thomas at their disposal. Vucevic will play tonight while Thomas will once again be out for the Celtics. Boston survived without Thomas against a ‘fatigued’ Grizzlies squad (Memphis gave all of their key players a game-off yesterday after that debacle in Boston) but a younger and healthier Orlando team should pose a bigger challenge. Vucevic should be able to dominate the paint as Boston simply lacks the size to match up with him. In addition, I expect Oladipo to guard Bradley today, who is the de-facto primary weapon on offense with neither Thomas nor Sullinger available for the game. Oladipo has the ability to be a very good defender and hopefully he plays hard on that side of the court tonight. If that’s the case, Boston won’t have an easy time on the offensive end as they lack shooters, ranking 20th in eFG% on the season. Unlike Boston, Orlando has a few go-to guys who can score: Vucevic, Harris, and Oladipo. Taking away one offensive weapon won’t hinder this offense completely, and against a Boston team that lacks size in the paint, I like Orlando to get a number of easy buckets at the rim. Should be a pretty close game but I believe we have some solid ‘value’ with the points in this one.
Dallas Mavericks -2.5
The ‘easy’ play is to take the Clippers with the points in this game. After all, we’ve just watched Paul and Co. dominate Westbrook and OKC Thunder on the road, while Dallas got absolutely embarrassed by the Cavs on Tuesday night. Of course nothing is easy in NBA. This is a classic ‘let down’ spot for the Clippers. Paul came to play against Westbrook, as he scored 33 points on 11-19 from the field while dominating Westbrook all night long. On plays where Paul was the defender, Westbrook was only 2 for 8 from the field for 7 points while committing 7 of his 10 turnovers. Now that’s impressive. Of course to shut down Wesbrook this way you have to really exert a lot of energy throughout the game. The question is, can we expect the same kind of effort out of Paul tonight? Tonight’s game won’t be on National TV like the game @ OKC and Paul won’t have a point to prove (‘why he’s not considered in the MVP race the way Westbrook is) as no-one on the Mavs squad is being involved in the “MVP discussions”. I highly doubt that we’ll see the same kind of effort out of him as we saw on Thursday. Besides, Paul will be facing off against another “MVP candidate” in James Harden on Sunday, a game that WILL BE broadcast on ABC. Maybe tonight’s isn’t just a ‘let down’ spot, but it’s also a potential ‘sandwich’ game for Paul and the Clippers. I honestly expect Chris Paul to play at a lower intensity level tonight, especially after he tweaked his ankle against OKC. The team that I don’t expect to play at a low intensity level though are the Mavs. To get blown out by 33 points on your own home-court is simply embarrassing. To have to listen to a newcomer Amare Stoudemire question the team’s worth ethic and dedication can’t sit well. And to have to wait 3 days before the next game has got to be excruciating. If the Mavs don’t play this game like their ‘playoff lives’ depend on it, I’d be very surprised. I expect a very strong effort out of this team tonight. They lost to LAC by 20 in the first meeting when Blake Griffin dominated the game. They lost to LAC by 17 in the 2nd meeting when Griffin was out but Jamal Crawford put up 22 points off the bench. Now they’ll face this Clippers squad without either Griffin or Crawford, and with Chris Paul coming off what probably was his best game of the year on both sides of the court. If Dallas doesn’t exact some ‘revenge’ tonight and salvage at least one game from this season-series, I’d be pretty surprised.
