Sportswagers
#843 Florida +13½ vs Kentucky
#843 Florida +13½ -110 over Kentucky
1:00 PM EST. The Wildcats need no introductions. They are the #1 team in the country, they’ll be in everyone’s bracket to make it to the Final Four and it would be shocking to see them not make it to this year’s Championship Game. However, there is a premium to pay when backing them and that is even more applicable this time of year when more folks are betting. We cannot recommend paying a premium to wager on any team and that includes the Wildcats.
Just about every time the Gators looked like they were gaining some momentum, they took a step backwards just like they did when they lost by 12 to Mizzou on February 24. There are a few other examples as well. The market sees the Gators as nothing more than a mediocre SEC squad but underestimating them could hurt your bankroll. If you power-rate these teams based solely on this season's body of work, the ‘Cats should no question be a double-digit favorite. But for all of Florida's shortcomings, the markets have started to catch up to Kentucky with just three spread covers in the Wildcats' past nine tries. Furthermore, the Gators rarely lose by this much. In fact, Florida has one loss by more than 14 points over their past 14 games and that occurred in Kentucky by 17. This game isn’t in Kentucky. With this game projected to be low-possession and low-scoring (the total is 123), winning by double-digits can be tricky. We absolutely trust Florida coach Billy Donovan to have a solid game plan and his kids ready to play.
Our Pick
#843 Florida +13½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Tennessee vs Arkansas
#847 Tennessee +6½ -110 over Arkansas
7:00 PM EST. The Vols started the season strong but hit a major wall soon after conference play started. Tennessee has just three wins in its past 14 games and that has this underdog undervalued. Let us remind you that the Vols won 12 of their first 17 games and many of those were not against weak competition. Among Tennessee’s non-conference schedule was games against Butler, K-State, VCU, N.C. State and Kansas. They hit a wall because they had a lot of trouble defending against the three-point shot but they were so close in many games. Among those losses were at Georgia by three and at Ole Miss by 2. The Vols also played Arkansas twice and defeated them in Knoxville by five points while losing by that same margin at Bud Walton Arena. They have played the Hogs very tough in two games and now they get them again back in Nashville. Tennessee is suddenly dangerous again. They defeated a hot and very good a shooting Vanderbilt team yesterday in the quarter-finals. UT has now won two of its past three, including a 15-point victory over LSU. The Vols have a stud senior in Josh Richardson, their defense is very good and now their confidence is much higher after two very good wins over the past eight days.
The Razorbacks are ranked and they’re going to the Dance but we’d be very cautious about spotting points with this team on the road or on a neutral court. For one, they have not played on a neutral court all season and it’s not easy to shoot in unfamiliar surroundings. Secondly, the Hogs are 3-2 over their past five games but they have not won by this margin in almost a month. As a 7½-point choice over LSU recently, they lost outright and as a 7½-point choice over both Mississippi State and Texas A&M, they won by 4 and 6 points respectively. For whatever reason, the Hogs almost always bring the best out in Tennessee. The Vols have confidence when they play this team no matter where the game is played. The Volunteers don't have the same balance as Arkansas but their defense, intangibles and some rejuvenated confidence gives them a fighting chance to perhaps win outright and/or stick around right to the end.
Our Pick
#847 Tennessee +6½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
VCU vs Richmond
#830 VCU -2 -102 over Richmond
2:30 PM EST. All it takes is one game for a bandwagon to shift completely at this time of year. Richmond is likely to garner market support, while bettors who lost with VCU yesterday against Fordham will be in no rush to get back to the betting window in support of them again. As a 13-point favorite yesterday, the Rams struggled against those dregs from Fordham and won by just six. The loss of veteran point guard Briante Weber is probably going to keep VCU from a making a run in the NCAA tournament, but perhaps it's time to put the "buy" sign on the Rams. It's important to know that the loss of Weber is no doubt accounted for in the betting markets. Oddsmakers and bettors alike are well aware of the positive impact he had on both ends of the floor. However, this is another squad that has experience and one of the best motivators in the business in Coach Shaka Smart. With such a strong pedigree and Weber at the helm, the Rams didn't offer much in the way of betting value. However, after three losses in a row followed by two victories over two teams they were supposed to blow out (George Mason and Fordham), the Rams come into this one very undervalued.
By contrast, the Spiders stock is high with six straight wins and they’ve defeated the Rams twice this year already. The Spiders are making a case for an at-large bid but we’re not buying it for a second. For one, they are a brutal rebounding team, ranking 342nd in the country. They played a schedule that ranked 51st in the country while VCU’s strength of schedule ranked 17th. Against teams ranked 51-100, the Spiders went 4-4 while the Rams went 7-3 against that same class of teams. Richmond is unquestionably a dangerous team but we can’t stress enough how difficult it is to defeat the same superior team three times in the same season. Again, the Spiders have defeated VCU in both meetings this year and we can assure you that is not sitting well with Shaka Smart and the entire team. We’re not expecting the third time to be a charm for Richmond in a game where VCU figures to flex its collective muscle. The buy low, sell high theory is in full effect here.
Our Pick
#830 VCU -2 -102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.96)
#843 Florida +13½ vs Kentucky
#843 Florida +13½ -110 over Kentucky
1:00 PM EST. The Wildcats need no introductions. They are the #1 team in the country, they’ll be in everyone’s bracket to make it to the Final Four and it would be shocking to see them not make it to this year’s Championship Game. However, there is a premium to pay when backing them and that is even more applicable this time of year when more folks are betting. We cannot recommend paying a premium to wager on any team and that includes the Wildcats.
Just about every time the Gators looked like they were gaining some momentum, they took a step backwards just like they did when they lost by 12 to Mizzou on February 24. There are a few other examples as well. The market sees the Gators as nothing more than a mediocre SEC squad but underestimating them could hurt your bankroll. If you power-rate these teams based solely on this season's body of work, the ‘Cats should no question be a double-digit favorite. But for all of Florida's shortcomings, the markets have started to catch up to Kentucky with just three spread covers in the Wildcats' past nine tries. Furthermore, the Gators rarely lose by this much. In fact, Florida has one loss by more than 14 points over their past 14 games and that occurred in Kentucky by 17. This game isn’t in Kentucky. With this game projected to be low-possession and low-scoring (the total is 123), winning by double-digits can be tricky. We absolutely trust Florida coach Billy Donovan to have a solid game plan and his kids ready to play.
Our Pick
#843 Florida +13½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Tennessee vs Arkansas
#847 Tennessee +6½ -110 over Arkansas
7:00 PM EST. The Vols started the season strong but hit a major wall soon after conference play started. Tennessee has just three wins in its past 14 games and that has this underdog undervalued. Let us remind you that the Vols won 12 of their first 17 games and many of those were not against weak competition. Among Tennessee’s non-conference schedule was games against Butler, K-State, VCU, N.C. State and Kansas. They hit a wall because they had a lot of trouble defending against the three-point shot but they were so close in many games. Among those losses were at Georgia by three and at Ole Miss by 2. The Vols also played Arkansas twice and defeated them in Knoxville by five points while losing by that same margin at Bud Walton Arena. They have played the Hogs very tough in two games and now they get them again back in Nashville. Tennessee is suddenly dangerous again. They defeated a hot and very good a shooting Vanderbilt team yesterday in the quarter-finals. UT has now won two of its past three, including a 15-point victory over LSU. The Vols have a stud senior in Josh Richardson, their defense is very good and now their confidence is much higher after two very good wins over the past eight days.
The Razorbacks are ranked and they’re going to the Dance but we’d be very cautious about spotting points with this team on the road or on a neutral court. For one, they have not played on a neutral court all season and it’s not easy to shoot in unfamiliar surroundings. Secondly, the Hogs are 3-2 over their past five games but they have not won by this margin in almost a month. As a 7½-point choice over LSU recently, they lost outright and as a 7½-point choice over both Mississippi State and Texas A&M, they won by 4 and 6 points respectively. For whatever reason, the Hogs almost always bring the best out in Tennessee. The Vols have confidence when they play this team no matter where the game is played. The Volunteers don't have the same balance as Arkansas but their defense, intangibles and some rejuvenated confidence gives them a fighting chance to perhaps win outright and/or stick around right to the end.
Our Pick
#847 Tennessee +6½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
VCU vs Richmond
#830 VCU -2 -102 over Richmond
2:30 PM EST. All it takes is one game for a bandwagon to shift completely at this time of year. Richmond is likely to garner market support, while bettors who lost with VCU yesterday against Fordham will be in no rush to get back to the betting window in support of them again. As a 13-point favorite yesterday, the Rams struggled against those dregs from Fordham and won by just six. The loss of veteran point guard Briante Weber is probably going to keep VCU from a making a run in the NCAA tournament, but perhaps it's time to put the "buy" sign on the Rams. It's important to know that the loss of Weber is no doubt accounted for in the betting markets. Oddsmakers and bettors alike are well aware of the positive impact he had on both ends of the floor. However, this is another squad that has experience and one of the best motivators in the business in Coach Shaka Smart. With such a strong pedigree and Weber at the helm, the Rams didn't offer much in the way of betting value. However, after three losses in a row followed by two victories over two teams they were supposed to blow out (George Mason and Fordham), the Rams come into this one very undervalued.
By contrast, the Spiders stock is high with six straight wins and they’ve defeated the Rams twice this year already. The Spiders are making a case for an at-large bid but we’re not buying it for a second. For one, they are a brutal rebounding team, ranking 342nd in the country. They played a schedule that ranked 51st in the country while VCU’s strength of schedule ranked 17th. Against teams ranked 51-100, the Spiders went 4-4 while the Rams went 7-3 against that same class of teams. Richmond is unquestionably a dangerous team but we can’t stress enough how difficult it is to defeat the same superior team three times in the same season. Again, the Spiders have defeated VCU in both meetings this year and we can assure you that is not sitting well with Shaka Smart and the entire team. We’re not expecting the third time to be a charm for Richmond in a game where VCU figures to flex its collective muscle. The buy low, sell high theory is in full effect here.
Our Pick
#830 VCU -2 -102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.96)
Sportswagers
Ottawa @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Ottawa +177 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. We pointed out in our last write-up about the Islanders just how lucky they’ve been this year. Indeed the Isles are a class above the Senators but they continue to be a high risk when priced in this range because of the many flaws in their game. Of the 30 teams in the league, the Isles rank 23rd in goals against and 29th on the penalty kill. The seven teams that have allowed more goals than the Islanders are Edmonton, Arizona, Dallas, Columbus, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Toronto. What those seven teams have in common is that none of them are going to the playoffs. The Islanders have two victories in their past six games. One of those was against the Maple Leafs in OT. The other win was a 4-3 victory over the Preds but the Islanders were outshot 31-26. Jaroslav Halak is one of those hit and miss goaltenders. He can be sensational one night and absolutely brutal the next. We have no idea which version will show up here but when taking back this price, we don’t need to know, we’ll just hope it’s the brutal version. Even if Halak plays decent enough, the Sens still have a good chance because they’re scoring goals, they’re creating chances and they’re playing well with nine wins in their past 11 games.
Much will be made about the Senators playing their third game in four days here. The last two times the Sens played their third game in four days, they won both times over Vancouver and over San Jose so it clearly does not bother them. Playing three in four also has much less of an effect this time of year when teams are keeping their energy levels high. Winning also tends to energize teams. The Sens buried five goals on Carey Price last night. You would have to go back to last April for the last time Price allowed that many goals. Since February 2, a span of 14 games, Ottawa has scored 49 times. They have scored three goals or more in 11 of those 14 games. Ottawa has some magic going right now. Yeah, they lost an important game to Boston this week but they outshot the B’s 40-22 and deserved a better fate. The Sens are getting production from many sources and a few of those sources are red hot right now. Sometimes the price dictates the play. When a team is going as good as the Sens are right now, taking back that price cannot be ignored.
Our Pick
Ottawa +177 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.54)
Ottawa @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Ottawa +177 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. We pointed out in our last write-up about the Islanders just how lucky they’ve been this year. Indeed the Isles are a class above the Senators but they continue to be a high risk when priced in this range because of the many flaws in their game. Of the 30 teams in the league, the Isles rank 23rd in goals against and 29th on the penalty kill. The seven teams that have allowed more goals than the Islanders are Edmonton, Arizona, Dallas, Columbus, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Toronto. What those seven teams have in common is that none of them are going to the playoffs. The Islanders have two victories in their past six games. One of those was against the Maple Leafs in OT. The other win was a 4-3 victory over the Preds but the Islanders were outshot 31-26. Jaroslav Halak is one of those hit and miss goaltenders. He can be sensational one night and absolutely brutal the next. We have no idea which version will show up here but when taking back this price, we don’t need to know, we’ll just hope it’s the brutal version. Even if Halak plays decent enough, the Sens still have a good chance because they’re scoring goals, they’re creating chances and they’re playing well with nine wins in their past 11 games.
Much will be made about the Senators playing their third game in four days here. The last two times the Sens played their third game in four days, they won both times over Vancouver and over San Jose so it clearly does not bother them. Playing three in four also has much less of an effect this time of year when teams are keeping their energy levels high. Winning also tends to energize teams. The Sens buried five goals on Carey Price last night. You would have to go back to last April for the last time Price allowed that many goals. Since February 2, a span of 14 games, Ottawa has scored 49 times. They have scored three goals or more in 11 of those 14 games. Ottawa has some magic going right now. Yeah, they lost an important game to Boston this week but they outshot the B’s 40-22 and deserved a better fate. The Sens are getting production from many sources and a few of those sources are red hot right now. Sometimes the price dictates the play. When a team is going as good as the Sens are right now, taking back that price cannot be ignored.
Our Pick
Ottawa +177 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.54)
