WUNDERDOG
I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (
read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Illinois vs. Michigan (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Michigan +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This very well could be an NCAA Tournament play-in game as both of these clubs stand at 19-12 and both could use a win here to solidify their resumes. The Illini were at one time 13-3 on the season and have fallen dramatically, finishing the slate at 6-9 in their last 15 games. A bigger problem is they own just one win outside of Champagne since before Christmas. The Wolverines were on their way to falling apart, but broke out of a 1-7 stretch to finish at 8-3 and are the team that has the confidence coming in here. The Illini has taken the donut on a neutral court, dropping their last eight against the number. I'll play Michigan and the points.
Game: Boston College vs. Clemson (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 131 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
A pair of 20-win ACC teams will hook up in this one, and adding a big win could do both teams some good to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume. That usually means a tightly-contested, defensive match. The Tigers have been all about defense holding four of their last 11 in conference play to 50 points or less. The Eagles like to get out and run, but their history and their opponent here says otherwise. Boston College is 15-2 to the UNDER as a neutral-court dog in their last 17. Clemson enters with an 8-2-1 UNDER mark in their last 11 in the conference. Play the UNDER.
Game: St. Joesph's vs. Duquesne (2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 135 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It has been a tough go for Phil Martelli and St. Joesph's this season. The Hawks have claimed victory just 10 times on the season and have endured a 20-loss season. This is a team starved for offense and were held in the 50s or less in half of their Atlantic-10 contests. Duquesne has had trouble at the offensive end themselves of late averaging less than 60 points a game over their last three, and all three have gone UNDER the total. The Hawks have slowed things down vs. the better teams and have now played 9-1-1 ATS to the UNDER in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning percentage of greater than .600. Play on the UNDER.
Game: Mississippi vs. Kentucky (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Mississippi +9.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Kentucky Wildcats are rich in talent, but poor in experience in this tournament atmosphere. They have played tough vs. most of the SEC teams, and over their last 13 SEC tilts they have managed just two wins by more than 9 points. Things will get tighter in this one, and the lack of experience will be telling vs. a big number here. Mississippi owns a win vs. the Wildcats this season, so they won't be intimidated in the least. The Rebels are 5-0 ATS as a dog from +7-12.5 in their last five, while the Wildcats are now 0-5 ATS following an ATS win. Ole Miss is the call.
Game: Grambling State vs. Jackson State (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 122.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Jackson State held Prairie View A&M to 38 points in the opener of the conference tournament, but managed just 50 themselves. Grambling State played their game in the 60s vs. Mississippi Valley State. The tone set for this tournament is defense. Grambling State has spent about half of their season scoring in the 50s or less as that has occurred 14 times already this season. Jackson State has now played three of their last four in the 50s themselves. I don't see this one playing out much differently, topping out in the 50s to perhaps 60 to the winner. My call is on the UNDER in this one.
Game: Lafayette at Bucknell (4:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Lafayette +9 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Bucknell Bison had a nice tourney run a few years back, and they have closed the season strong here with 9 straight wins. They barely escaped in their last one over Lehigh by a scant 2-point margin. They appeared tight in that game, and the pressure is always on these small conference teams because there is no bid unless they win out. Lafayette will be confident here as they took the Bison to overtime their last meeting this season. The Bison have now gotten overpriced with the long winning streak, and are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 wins. I’m on Lafayette here.
Game: Morgan State vs. Bethune-cookman (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Bethune-cookman +2.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Bethune-Cookman Wildcats have closed the season with an impressive run, as they come into this one having won eight straight games. What might be more impressive is the fact that they have won the eight games by an average margin of 11 points per game. Morgan State comes in at 16-13 and has lost three of their last four games - not the type of finishes championships are made from. The three losses were not nail biters as the Bears lost by an average of 9 points per game. Play on Bethune-Cookman in this one.
Game: Tulsa at U T E P (6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tulsa +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The UTEP Miners have slipped a bit from a 17-4 start going just 7-4 over their last 11. One of those losses was to this 19-12 Tulsa team. Tulsa has really gotten things together late in the season as they are 9-2 over their last 11 games, and have been an under-the-radar 5-1 ATS in their last six when posted as a dog. They have also gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games posted as an underdog. I’m on Tulsa in this one.
Game: Penn State at Wisconsin (8:50 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 120.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Big-10 has been notorious for defense, and at the top of that list every year is the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers defense is awesome and they went through their Big-10 schedule holding 17 of the 18 teams on their slate to 70 points or less. Penn State certainly isn't an offensive-oriented team, and I would look for them to try and shorten the game here vs. the talented Badgers. These clubs have played 10 of their last 14 matchups UNDER the total, and the Badgers have been 5-1 to the UNDER as a neutral-court favorite in their last 6. I'll call this one UNDER the total.
Game: Alabama State at Texas Southern (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 120.5 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)
The Texas Southern Tigers took on an aggressive, over-their-heads early schedule that left them in a terrible spot at 2-9 to start the season. The stiff competition paid dividends as they rescued their season with a 17-2 mark going forward. They just completed a 50-45 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff, and teams are going to try to shorten the game against. Alabama State saw 25 of their games this season where they failed to get out of the 60s, and another 16 with them not topping the 60 mark. The Hornets are 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five neutral-site games and the Tigers are 4-0 UNDER in their last four on a neutral site. This one will play like the last for Texas Southern. Take this one to go UNDER the total.
Game: Texas A & M at Texas (9:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 126 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Texas Longhorns are a tough, physical team that really likes to "man-up” on defense, and make it tough for opponents to get clean shots. They have held 10 of their last 13 Big-12 opponents to 60 points or less with that defense. Texas A&M had a pair of shots against this team and averaged just 54.5 points per game in the two meetings. A&M brings some awesome defense with them as well and have now played to a 19-7-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 27 following an ATS win. The Longhorns’ defense is providing an UNDER run that is now 18-6. The UNDER is the play in this one
