STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/7/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 2/7/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- Thunder won 12 of their last 13 games (10-3 vs. spread).
-- Wizards are 4-1 versus spread in game following last five losses.
-- Boston/Sacramento both won last two games; Kings lost last four road games (3-1-1 vs. spread last five).
-- Nets won 12 of their last 16 games (11-5 vs. spread).
-- Nuggets won four of their last six games.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games.
-- New Orleans won five of its last seven games.
-- Toronto covered seven of its last nine games.
•Cold Teams
-- Portland lost four of its last five road games.
-- Magic lost five of their last seven games.
-- Lakers/76ers both lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Cavaliers lost their last six games (0-6 vs. spread).
-- Pistons lost six of their last eight games.
-- New York lost last three games, by 15-4-3 points.
-- Jazz lost five of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games.
-- Clippers lost three of their last four games.
•Totals
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Portland games.
-- Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under.
-- Ten of last twelve Laker games went over total.
-- Eight of last nine Cavalier-Wizard games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Sacramento games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Brooklyn games.
-- Five of last six Denver-New York games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Utah games.
-- Five of last six Minnesota-New Orleans games went over.
-- Over is 15-9 in Clipper home games this season.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Nets are 4-2 versus spread on road if they played night before.
•Series Records
-- Home team won last seven Portland-Indiana games.
-- Thunder won last five games versus Orlando (0-3 vs. spread last three).
-- Lakers lost three of last four games with Philadelphia.
-- Cavaliers won four of last five games with Washington.
-- Kings lost last four visits to Boston, three by 18+ points.
-- Pistons are 2-0 versus Brooklyn this year, winning by 12-4 points.
-- Knicks lost seven of last ten games with Denver.
-- Mavericks won nine of last twelve games with Utah.
-- Pelicans lost last four games with Minnesota, three by 12+ points.
-- Clippers won four of last five games with Toronto.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- PHILADELPHIA is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 100.7, OPPONENT 111.
-- LA CLIPPERS are 15-0 OVER (+15.0 Units) as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 110.0, OPPONENT 105.7.
-- PORTLAND is 13-27 (-16.7 Units) against the 1rst half line after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 48.5, OPPONENT 52.7.
-- WASHINGTON is 47-17 OVER (+28.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 51.4, OPPONENT 50.1.
-- MIKE D'ANTONI is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite of 7or more in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was D'ANTONI 109.9, OPPONENT 102.1.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DALLAS is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 105.2, OPPONENT 99.5.
-- SACRAMENTO is 37-18 OVER (+17.2 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 101.8, OPPONENT 105.5.
-- NEW YORK is 17-4 (+12.6 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 53.4, OPPONENT 43.0
-- UTAH is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was UTAH 40.4, OPPONENT 49.9.
-- BRETT BROWN is 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA.
The average score was BROWN 101.1, OPPONENT 113.0.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - All teams where the money line is -155 to -360 (DALLAS) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games.
(29-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +26.3 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +107.9
The average score in these games was: Team 108.1, Opponent 99 (Average point differential = +9.1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2, +13.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (65-32, +14.2 units).
-- Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games.
(31-7 since 1996.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (35-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.7
The average score in these games was: Team 115.5, Opponent 102 (Average point differential = +13.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (43.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(31-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.7
The average score in these games was: Team 94.1, Opponent 93.9 (Total points scored = 188)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 21 (58.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (49-19).
-- Play Over - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.2
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 97.4 (Total points scored = 203.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (62.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
-- Play On - Road teams versus the 1rst half line (PORTLAND) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(54-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.8, Opponent 51 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (117-97).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (PHILADELPHIA) - a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record, in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games.
(24-4 since 1996.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.7, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 97.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
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Friday's Match-ups
#801 LA LAKERS @ #802 PHILADELPHIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TWC SportsNet (Los Angeles), CSN Philadelphia - Line: 76ers -3, Total: 219) - The Los Angeles Lakers' injury report is nearly as long as their active roster, but they should have a good shot at their second straight victory when they wrap up a three-game road trip against the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday. Neither team is a threat to sneak into the playoffs, as Los Angeles has lost 19 of its last 23 games and Philadelphia has dropped four straight and 14 of 17. The 76ers have lost six straight at home, their longest skid since a franchise-record 12-game streak in 1996-97.
The Lakers won in strange fashion Wednesday, as they had only five players in the final minutes of their 119-108 win at Cleveland and were allowed to keep center Robert Sacre on the floor with six fouls thanks to an obscure rule requiring teams to have five players on the floor. The players who have been available each night have impressed coach Mike D'Antoni. "They are playing with the right spirit," D'Antoni told reporters. "It's getting guys back and getting guys healthy. We can make a push to where we're playing entertaining basketball. … We can finish the year out on a high note, and that's what we're going to do." The 76ers have won three of the past four meetings including a 111-104 win at Los Angeles on Dec. 29.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (17-32 SU, 26-22-1 ATS): Los Angeles is inching toward full health with Steve Blake (elbow), Jordan Farmar (hamstring) and Steve Nash (back nerve irritation) returning to action but still has a number of key players sidelined, including Kobe Bryant (fractured knee), Pau Gasol (groin), Nick Young (knee), Jodie Meeks (ankle) and Xavier Henry (knee). That list includes five of the six players who average double-digit scoring for the Lakers with point guard Kendall Marshall (10.3 points, 9.2 assists) the exception. Blake has made an immediate impact in his return, collecting a triple-double with 11 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds against the Cavaliers in just his second game back.
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-35 SU, 20-3-0 ATS): Philadelphia is among the worst defensive teams in the league and has surrendered 100 or more points in 11 of its last 12 games. The poor play at that end of the floor offsets a trio of strong offensive players in Evan Turner (17.8 points, 6 rebounds), Thaddeus Young (17.5 points, 6.2 rebounds) and Michael Carter-Williams (17.2 points, 6.6 assists). Big man Spencer Hawes also is quietly having the best season of his seven-year career, averaging career highs for points (13.5) and rebounds (8.7) with 17 double-doubles.
•PREGAME NOTES: Lakers rookie PF Ryan Kelly has scored in double digits in seven of the last 10 games and is coming off a career-high 26 points against Cleveland.... Philadelphia is 1-9 in home games against the Western Conference.... The 76ers have lost 24 of 27 games when scoring 100 points or fewer.... The Lakers are 15-29 against the spread in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last three seasons.... The Sixers are 1-10 versus the spread in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the spread 513 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 464 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PHILADELPHIA won the game straight up 538 times, while LA LAKERS won 434 times. In 1000 simulated games, 835 games went under the total, while 151 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA LAKERS covered the first half line 508 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 802 games went under first half total, while 198 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 19-19 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 22-16 straight up against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--21 of 38 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 21-17 versus the first half line when playing against PHILADELPHIA since 1996.
--19 of 38 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Lakers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Lakers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.
--Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.
--Road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 road games.
--Over is 8-0 in Lakers last 8 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 7-1-1 in 76ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#803 PORTLAND @ #804 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN, CSN Northwest (Portland), FSN Indiana - Line: Pacers -6, Total: 197) - If the Portland Trail Blazers thought their offensive struggles were bad in their previous four games, they could be in for a jarring surprise Friday night as they visit the Indiana Pacers in a meeting between the NBA's top offense and No. 1 defense. The Trail Blazers have been the class of the NBA in the scoring department but failed to crack 95 points in three of their last four games. Indiana will provide a stiff test, allowing a league-low 90.2 points.
The Blazers didn't need to reach their 107.7-point average in their last encounter, doing just enough to slip past the host New York Knicks 94-90. Nicolas Batum's 20 points and 10 rebounds made the difference on a night where fringe MVP candidate LaMarcus Aldridge struggled with his shot and the Portland bench shot just 5-of-16 from the floor. Indiana has won three straight games and is a league-best 23-2 at home so far.
•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (35-14 SU, 26-23-0 ATS): Even the most casual NBA fan will recognize Portland point guard Damian Lillard as one of the most versatile at his position. He'll get a chance to show just how varied his skills are when he participates in what will be the busiest All-Star Weekend in league history. In addition to taking part in the All-Star Game, the rookie/sophomore and the skills challenge, Lillard has confirmed participation in the dunk contest and will also take part in the 3-point shootout.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (38-10 SU, 31-17-0 ATS): Indiana star Paul George will join Lillard in the dunk competition, but not everyone is happy about his participation. Teammate Roy Hibbert, who will also suit up for the Eastern Conference in the All-Star Game, doesn't think George should bother with the contest. "I don't think Paul should do it, to tell you the truth," Hibbert told the Indianapolis Star. "He's doing the stuff in the games to show why he could've won it two years ago. I think he's been there/done that."
•PREGAME NOTES: The home team has won each of the last seven meetings, including a 106-102 Portland victory in their last encounter Dec. 2.... Lillard averages 23 points, 5.3 assists and 3.7 rebounds in three games versus Indiana.... The Trail Blazers are 7-0 against Central Division foes.... The Pacers are 17-6 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game this season.... Portland is 22-10 Over versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND covered the spread 540 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 423 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 585 times, while PORTLAND won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, 633 games went over the total, while 346 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND covered the first half line 523 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 434 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 618 games went over first half total, while 382 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 18-13 against the spread versus PORTLAND since 1996.
--INDIANA is 17-16 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--16 of 29 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--20 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Trail Blazers are 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
--Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-1-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 road games.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#805 CLEVELAND @ #806 WASHINGTON
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), CSN Mid-Atlantic (Washington) - Line: Wizards -9.5, Total: 200) - The Cleveland Cavaliers play their first game following a front office shakeup when they visit the Washington Wizards on Friday night. In the wake of an embarrassing 119-108 loss at home to the severely shorthanded Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, the Cavaliers fired general manager Chris Grant. Cleveland has lost six straight games by an average of 15.5 points and 18 of its last 24 games overall, and is careening toward its fourth straight losing season since LeBron James left.
The Wizards also come in on a sour note, although one not nearly as severe. They had actually won eight of 12 to enter Wednesday's game against San Antonio with a winning record for the first time in over four years, and raced to a 62-48 halftime lead before losing steam and falling 125-118 in double overtime. John Wall led seven players in double figures with 29 points and nine assists as Washington fell to 12-12 at home.
•ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (16-33 SU, 19-30-0 ATS): Grant recently made news when he called out his team's perceived lack of effort, saying it was "not acceptable." While Grant is now out of the mix it is hard to argue with that assessment after the loss to the Lakers, as Los Angeles finished with just five players - one of which was forced to play after fouling out and the team having no bodies left - after a rash of injuries and disqualifications. Disappointing rookie Anthony Bennett, Grant's No. 1 pick last year, provided one of the few bright spots by continuing his recent surge with 14 points and eight rebounds in 22 minutes.
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (24-24 SU, 26-22-0 ATS): The meeting with Cleveland will constitute an extreme drop in the level of competition for Washington, which went an impressive 3-2 in a stretch against five of the top eight teams in the NBA based on winning percentage. The Wizards now get a more favorable run; eight of their next 14 opponents enter Friday with a losing record, including Cleveland (twice), Philadelphia, Orlando, Utah, Sacramento and league doormat Milwaukee. Bradley Beal scored 26 points and Nene added 24 in a 98-91 win over the Cavaliers in the previous meeting Nov. 20 in Cleveland.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cleveland is shooting 26.4 percent from 3-point range over its last four games, while its opponents are at 42.6 percent.... Wall is averaging 20.4 points and nine assists in his last five games.... Cavaliers All-Star G Kyrie Irving scored 69 points while making 7-of-11 3-pointers as the teams split a pair of games in November, the road team winning each time.... Washington is 8-20 versus the spread in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last three seasons.... Cleveland is 0-7 against the spread versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEVELAND covered the spread 547 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 678 times, while CLEVELAND won 299 times. In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went over the total, while 455 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEVELAND covered the first half line 576 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 424 times. *EDGE against first half line =CLEVELAND. In 1000 simulated games, 496 games went over first half total, while 469 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 42-34 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 40-38 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--42 of 76 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--WASHINGTON is 40-36 versus the first half line when playing against CLEVELAND since 1996.
--41 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Washington.
--Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#807 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #808 ORLANDO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), FSN Florida (Orlando) - Line: Thunder -9, Total: 201) - The Oklahoma City Thunder have yet to lose more than two straight games this season and look to maintain that type of focus with three of the last four on the road before the All Star break. That stretch begins with a visit to the Orlando Magic on Friday as the Thunder try to win for the 13th time in 14 outings and add to their league-leading victory total. The Magic, who have won four of their last five games at home, must find ways to contain the league’s top scorer Kevin Durant.
Durant has cooled slightly since his string of 12 straight 30-point performances but still averaged 27.3 over the last four contests while shooting 54.1 percent. Oklahoma City is fifth in the league in scoring (105) and has been without injured All Star guard Russell Westbrook the last 23 games - going 17-6. The Magic have dropped five straight to the Thunder, including a 101-98 decision Dec. 15 at Oklahoma City.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (40-11 SU, 30-21-0 ATS): Forward Serge Ibaka has raised his game of late, shooting better than 50 percent from the field in nine straight games while averaging 18.2 points in the last 13. Durant produces 31 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists and is shooting 51.3 percent for the season – 41.7 from behind the arc. Westbrook, who averaged 21.3 points before suffering a knee injury, could return soon and Reggie Jackson has filled in for him admirably while scoring 13.5 points for the season.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (14-37 SU, 21-30-0 ATS): Veteran point guard Jameer Nelson returned from missing a pair of games with a sore left knee to record a season-high 11 assists in the 112-98 victory over Detroit on Wednesday. Rookie Victor Oladipo moved back to the bench in that game and contributed a team-high 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting and stands second on the team in scoring (13.8) behind Arron Afflalo (19.9). Center Nikola Vucevic is averaging 14.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in five games since returning from a concussion.
•PREGAME NOTES: Orlando F Glen Davis scored 18 points against Detroit on 8-of-12 shooting, his best output in 13 games.... Oklahoma City F Jeremy Lamb is averaging 10 points in 51 games, all coming off the bench.... The Magic are 0-4 in overtime games while the Thunder are 2-0.... Oklahoma City is 30-16 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... Orlando is 13-24 versus the spread versus teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots/game on the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the spread 495 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 484 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 692 times, while ORLANDO won 287 times. In 1000 simulated games, 589 games went under the total, while 389 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 510 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 456 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 587 games went under first half total, while 413 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ORLANDO is 19-14 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-16 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--19 of 33 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--20 of 33 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Orlando.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Over is 4-0 in Magic last 4 home games.
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#809 SACRAMENTO @ #810 BOSTON
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, CSN California (Sacramento), CSN New England (Boston) - Line: Kings -1, Total: 201) - Rajon Rondo is playing more like his old self and as a result the Boston Celtics have a chance to match their longest winning streak in two months when they host the Sacramento Kings on Friday. The Celtics have won two straight — something they hadn't done since mid-December — and are after their first three-game streak since Dec. 3-8. The Kings have also won two straight and aim to match their season-best three-game streak from Jan. 7-12.
Rondo has posted double digits in assists in consecutive games and flirted with a triple-double in Wednesday's 114-108 win at Philadelphia, compiling eight points, 11 assists and nine rebounds, and the Celtics hope to have him on the floor after he missed practice Thursday. "His greatest strength is he makes everyone else better, and that's really shown true the last two games," Boston coach Brad Stevens told reporters. Sacramento, which is starting a four-game road trip against Eastern Conference teams, has lost four straight away from home.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (17-32 SU, 23-24-2 ATS): Sacramento's back-to-back wins have come on the heels of a season-high seven-game skid, and both victories have been impressive. The Kings blew out Chicago 99-70 and had a 22-point lead before holding off Toronto 109-101 on Wednesday. Sacramento doesn't get many stops at the defensive end, but it's the only team in the NBA with three players averaging at least 20 points — DeMarcus Cousins (22.7 points, 11.6 rebounds), Rudy Gay (20.3 points, 6.2 rebounds) and Isaiah Thomas (20 points, 6.2 assists).
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (17-33 SU, 24-25-1 ATS): Rondo isn't the only player coming to life recently, as leading scorer Jeff Green (16.3 points) has been maddeningly inconsistent but was in top form with 36 points against the 76ers. Frontcourt mate Jared Sullinger (13.1 points, eight rebounds) also has been a force lately, averaging 21.3 points and 13 rebounds while posting a career-high three consecutive double-doubles. The Celtics could be without one of their top scorers, though, as guard Avery Bradley (14.6 points) is nursing an ankle injury and considered questionable.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Celtics have won the last five meetings with the Kings in Boston by an average of 16.2 points.... Sacramento G Marcus Thornton (8.4 points) is unlikely to play after bruising his hip on a hard fall against the Raptors.... Rondo needs two assists to become the sixth Celtics player with 4,000 in his career, joining Bob Cousy, John Havlicek, Larry Bird, Paul Pierce and Bill Russell.... Sacramento is 17-6 against the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Celtics are 23-9 Under versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 20 assists/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the spread 509 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the spread 466 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO won the game straight up 491 times, while BOSTON won 487 times. In 1000 simulated games, 487 games went under the total, while 481 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the first half line 505 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 495 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 502 games went over first half total, while 498 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SACRAMENTO is 18-14 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 19-13 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--16 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Boston.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Under is 2-0-2 in Kings last 4 road games.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Kings last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Under is 7-0 in Celtics last 7 after allowing 100 points or more.
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#811 DENVER @ #812 NEW YORK
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, Altitude (Denver), MSG (New York) - Line: Pick, Total: 209) - The New York Knicks may be the most inconsistent team in the NBA and are currently enduring one of their down periods. The Knicks followed up a four-game winning streak by dropping three straight and will attempt to pull out of the latest funk when they host the Denver Nuggets on Friday. The Nuggets pulled out of their own slump with back-to-back wins but are kicking off a four-game road trip with New York.
The Knicks are giving their fans whiplash over the last month with a stretch of five wins followed by five losses, followed by four wins and the current three-game slide. Offense is the culprit over the last week, during which New York has gone from an average of 116.5 points in four wins to 93 in three losses. “This year has been, for me, it’s been kind of a disaster from a coaching standpoint in trying to get players to compete and play at a high level,” Knicks coach Mike Woodson told ESPN radio in New York on Thursday.
•ABOUT THE NUGGETS (24-23 SU, 22-25-0 ATS): Denver is nearly as inconsistent as the Knicks but has been on a positive string recently with wins in four of the last six contests. The Nuggets earned an impressive 116-115 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on a last-second heave by Randy Foye on Monday and avoided a letdown against the lowly Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday behind 24 points from former Knick Wilson Chandler. “It’s my first time (back in New York) because of injuries,” Chandler told reporters. “It’ll be good. It’s been so long that it’s not that big a deal anymore.” Chandler was part of the package that went back to Denver in exchange for Carmelo Anthony.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (19-30 SU, 20-29-0 ATS): Anthony is one of the few bright spots with an average of 29.3 points during the latest slide and scored 26 points in a 94-90 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday. The rest of the starting five combined for 14 points on 5-of-20 shooting. Woodson’s job security has been questioned of late and the veteran coach told ESPN radio that the comments are not changing the way he deals with his team. “I can’t concern myself with that, I really can’t,” Woodson said. “It’s been out there, it’s buzzing. … That’s not my concern. My concern is coming to work every day with my head held high, trying to figure out how I can get us out of this hole.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Anthony averages 23.8 points on 35.2 percent shooting in four career games against his original franchise.... Denver has taken two straight and three of the last four in the series, including a 97-95 home triumph on Nov. 29.... New York F Kenyon Martin (ankle) is expected to miss the next week.... The Nuggets are 1-9 against the spread versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game this season.... The Knicks are 16-5 versus the spread in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the spread 579 times, while DENVER covered the spread 396 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEW YORK. In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK won the game straight up 579 times, while DENVER won 396 times. In 1000 simulated games, 602 games went under the total, while 373 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 546 times, while DENVER covered the first half line 418 times. *EDGE against first half line =NEW YORK. In 1000 simulated games, 583 games went under first half total, while 417 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 16-16 against the spread versus DENVER since 1996.
--DENVER is 17-15 straight up against NEW YORK since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DENVER is 23-9 versus the first half line when playing against NEW YORK since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nuggets are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nuggets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
--Over is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#813 BROOKLYN @ #814 DETROIT
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, YES (Brooklyn), FSD (Detroit) – Line: Pistons -1, Total: 203.5) - Big things were expected from the Brooklyn Nets and Detroit Pistons after they both retooled their respective rosters in the offseason. Neither team can be all that happy with the results so far as they face off Friday night at the Palace of Auburn Hills in Detroit. The Nets are coming off an impressive victory over San Antonio but remain three games below .500, while the Pistons are even worse off - dropping 10 games below the break-even point following a loss to Orlando.
Brooklyn struggled early against a Spurs team missing its four best players, but rallied in the second and third quarters before cruising in the fourth. Facing undermanned San Antonio provided a much-needed respite for the Nets, who play back-to-back home games after their game against Detroit before heading out on a grueling seven-game road trip. Detroit opens a five-game homestand Friday following back-to-back losses in Miami and Orlando.
•ABOUT THE NETS (22-25 SU, 23-24-0 ATS): Brooklyn is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, but took advantage of a small Spurs starting lineup to win the battle of the boards by a 53-38 margin — a total that included 16 offensive rebounds. The performance runs in stark contrast to the 30 rebounds Brooklyn collected in Monday's 108-102 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers. A healthy Andrei Kirilenko should help offset the loss of center Brook Lopez in that department, and the Russian forward had a strong showing with eight boards versus the Spurs.
•ABOUT THE PISTONS (19-29 SU, 20-27-1 ATS): Rebounding certainly isn't a problem for Detroit — it's just about everything else that has plagued the Pistons. Detroit ranks below the league average in field-goal percentage (.447) while sitting dead last in both 3-point percentage (30.6) and free-throw success rate (66.4). A good chunk of the blame for the last two figures falls on the shoulders of free-agent acquisition Josh Smith; the versatile forward has been a defensive force but is shooting just 22.9 percent from beyond the arc and 55.7 percent from the foul line.
•PREGAME NOTES: Detroit has won both meetings this season, averaging 106 points in those games.... Smith averages 15.9 points and 7.4 rebounds in 32 career games versus the Nets.... The Pistons surrender 102.9 points per game, the second-worst mark in the East.... Brooklyn is 17-4 versus the spread in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last two seasons.... Detroit is 16-5 Over versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the spread 524 times, while DETROIT covered the spread 476 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DETROIT won the game straight up 499 times, while BROOKLYN won 479 times. In 1000 simulated games, 644 games went under the total, while 356 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN covered the first half line 501 times, while DETROIT covered the first half line 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 611 games went under first half total, while 389 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 42-30 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--DETROIT is 46-28 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--43 of 72 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DETROIT is 37-34 versus the first half line when playing against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--39 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Nets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.
--Over is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Over is 3-0-1 in Nets last 4 overall.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.
--Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 16-5 in Pistons last 21 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#815 UTAH @ #816 DALLAS
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ROOT (Utah), FSN Southwest (Dallas) - Line: Mavericks -9.5, Total: 203.5) - Dirk Nowitzki has carried Dallas through a 4-1 stretch and he strives to record another solid outing when the Mavericks host the Utah Jazz on Friday. Nowitzki is averaging 29.8 points on 61.6 percent shooting and has scored at least 23 points in each game of the hot streak as Dallas maintains its hold of eighth place in the Western Conference. Utah has lost three straight games and is 6-18 on the road while possessing the worst record in the West.
Dallas has won 20 of the past 23 meetings and Utah will be hard-pressed to keep from dropping another if center Derrick Favors (hip) misses a fourth consecutive outing. The Jazz are averaging just 85.3 points during Favors’ absence and lost 94-79 to the Toronto Raptors on Monday. The Mavericks are on the other end of the scoring scale by averaging 114.4 points during Nowitzki’s hot streak. Dallas has topped 100 points in six consecutive games and 13 of their last 14.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (16-32 SU, 21-24-3 ATS): Point guard Trey Burke was named Western Conference Rookie of the Month for the second consecutive month earlier this week but he’s currently in the midst of a four-game funk. Burke is averaging just 6.5 points on 11-of-47 shooting during the stretch and has scored in double figures just once over the past seven games. Burke, who averages 12.7 points and 5.6 assists, is 21-of-79 from the field since scoring 20 points against the Detroit Pistons on Jan. 17.
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (29-21 SU, 28-22-0 ATS): Dallas recorded an impressive 110-96 victory in Memphis on Wednesday as Nowitzki scored 26 points on 10-of-14 shooting. The Grizzlies had been one of the hottest teams in the league and the Mavericks had their way inside with 56 points in the paint against a team that had held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer points. “It means we were driving the ball and sharing,” Nowitzki said. “Anytime we hold our own on the boards with this team and almost double them on points in the paint, that’s a fantastic job for us.”
•PREGAME NOTES: G Monta Ellis scored 26 points when the Mavericks posted a 103-93 home win over Utah on Nov. 22.... Jazz F Marvin Williams had his first 20-point outing of the campaign when he scored 23 points against Toronto.... Dallas F Shawn Marion (shoulder) returned from a two-game absence and had eight points against Memphis.... Utah is 15-29 versus the spread revenging a road loss versus opponent over the last two seasons.... The Mavericks are 16-4 against the spread versus poor defensive teams - shooting percent defense of more than 46% - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 511 times, while DALLAS covered the spread 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 675 times, while UTAH won 297 times. In 1000 simulated games, 538 games went over the total, while 462 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 527 times, while DALLAS covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 518 games went under first half total, while 482 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 36-32 against the spread versus UTAH since 1996.
--DALLAS is 35-34 straight up against UTAH since 1996.
--36 of 67 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--UTAH is 36-32 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--44 of 66 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Jazz are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Dallas.
--Home team is 27-12-1 ATS in the last 40 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 3-0-1 in Jazz last 4 overall.
--Over is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
--Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 overall.
--Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games following a S.U. win.
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#817 MINNESOTA @ #818 NEW ORLEANS
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Pelicans -1, Total: 197.5) - The Minnesota Timberwolves hope to have All-Star Kevin Love back in the lineup when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. Love (soreness) sat out Wednesday’s loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder after taking a hard fall the previous night, and the Timberwolves could not make up the difference on the inside with Nikola Pekovic (ankle) missing as well. The Pelicans have the force on the interior to take advantage of the injuries with Anthony Davis.
Love put up 30 points and 14 rebounds in an 88-77 home win over New Orleans on Jan. 29, but the Pelicans have won two of three to begin February and are attempting to close out a strong homestand. Davis missed the meeting in Minnesota with a finger issue and showed no ill effects from the injury while putting up 22.7 points and 11.3 rebounds in the last three games. “I’m always telling my guys, ‘Everybody has written you guys off, so what do you have to lose?’” Pelicans coach Monty Williams told reporters. “’Just go out there and play. I’ve got your back either way.’”
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (24-25 SU, 26-23-0 ATS): Minnesota is still hoping to get back into the playoff hunt in the Western Conference, but the injury to Pekovic slowed the momentum the team had gained in late January. The Timberwolves have dropped three of the last four to fall back below .500 but can look forward to a four-game homestand once they finish up with New Orleans. Love is probable to return Friday and has been a monster in Pekovic’s absence, stepping up his game with averages of 33 points and 16.5 rebounds over his last four contests, beginning with the effort against the Pelicans.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (21-27 SU, 22-24-2 ATS): New Orleans went into a tailspin when Jrue Holiday (leg) and Ryan Anderson (neck) went down but have won five of the last seven games behind Davis and a host of different contributors. Brian Roberts went for 19 points in a 105-100 win over the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday and Anthony Morrow is stepping up into Anderson’s role as a 3-point specialist by going 6-for-9 from beyond the arc in the last four contests. Morrow played 27 minutes Wednesday — his longest stretch since Nov. 10 — and scored 16 points to follow up a 20-point outburst in the previous game.
•PREGAME NOTES: Minnesota has taken four straight in the series, including two in January.... New Orleans G Tyreke Evans (ribs) sat out Wednesday and is day-to-day.... Timberwolves G Ricky Rubio failed to reach double figures in five straight games before breaking out with 19 points Wednesday.... New Orleans is 4-12 versus the spread versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.... Minnesota is 19-6 against the spread versus teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 549 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 421 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 528 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 451 times. In 1000 simulated games, 709 games went over the total, while 291 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 555 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 677 games went over first half total, while 323 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW ORLEANS is 26-22 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 25-23 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--24 of 48 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MINNESOTA is 27-20 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--26 of 47 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans.
--Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 5-0 in Timberwolves last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Timberwolves last 4 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 6-0 in Pelicans last 6 after scoring 100 points or more.
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#819 TORONTO @ #820 LA CLIPPERS
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TSN (Toronto), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles) - Line: Clippers -6, Total: 204) - Chris Paul is on the verge of returning and Blake Griffin is playing perhaps the best basketball of his stellar career as the Los Angeles Clippers host the Toronto Raptors on Friday. Paul has missed the last 17 games with a shoulder injury and Los Angeles coach Doc Rivers said Thursday that the standout point guard could return for Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Raptors are 2-2 as they conclude a five-game road trip.
Griffin scored a season-best 43 points and also grabbed 15 rebounds as the Clippers lost to the Miami Heat on Wednesday to open a five-game homestand. The performance followed a 36-point outing against Denver and marked the 10th straight game in which Griffin scored 20 or more points. Toronto has the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and is 14-13 on the road, surpassing the total of 13 wins all last season. All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24 points on the road trip to raise his scoring average to an even 22 per game.
•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (26-23 SU, 30-19-0 ATS): Second-year forward Terrence Ross figures to receive a lot of attention from the Los Angeles defense after pouring in a career-best 51 against the Clippers in a 126-118 home loss Jan. 25. Ross was 16-of-29 from the field and made a career-high 10 3-pointers in a scoring spree that seemingly came out of nowhere. Ross scored 14 total points in a three-game stretch before his epic outing and has struggled in February, failing to reach double digits in any of Toronto’s three games by averaging 6.7 points on 8-of-29 shooting.
•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (34-18 SU, 29-23-0 ATS): Guard Jamal Crawford said Griffin (23.7 points, 9.8 rebounds) should be part of the MVP conversation and also pointed out that the 24-year-old forward has stepped up his leadership abilities with Paul sidelined. Miami standout Dwyane Wade was equally impressed after Griffin nearly engineered a comeback win over the Heat. “With Chris being out, Blake has taken it upon himself to be the leader of this team,” Wade said. “He’s really putting his game together, playing a lot of minutes, getting the ball a lot, having to do a lot and he’s really stepping up.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Griffin had 30 points in last month’s victory in Toronto.... Clippers C DeAndre Jordan has put together 29 consecutive double-digit rebounding performances.... Raptors C Jonas Valanciunas has scored in double figures in seven straight games, averaging 16 points during the stretch.... The Clippers are 8-20 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... Toronto is 26-12 against the spread versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots/game on the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 533 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 445 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS won the game straight up 586 times, while TORONTO won 395 times. In 1000 simulated games, 519 games went under the total, while 455 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 537 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 427 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 506 games went under first half total, while 462 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 20-12 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--TORONTO is 18-15 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--19 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--TORONTO is 18-14 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--18 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Raptors are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Raptors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
--Under is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 Friday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more.
--Over is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
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