Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
20 Dime – CORNELL
20 Dime – SIENA
20 Dime – PITT
CORNELL --- Strange but true, Cornell continues to receive more hype than any team from the Ivy League since the Princeton and their patented 50-48 type games. This year's version of the Big Red, however, is much different than those Princeton teams because not only can they play great defense... they can score. 74 points in their last game; 90 before that; 86 before that. 77 PPG for the season and 75 per game on the road is going to spell trouble for the Quakers tonight.
Cornell is incredibly deep, having the best bench in the Ivy League... a bench that would likely replace a few current starting fives in the conference... they're THAT good. Case in point: the Big Red found themselves in a rare situation in their last home game, tied at 43 in the second half with an obviously inferior Brown team. HC Steve Donahue sent in five new players against Brown's starters and in a four-minute span outscored Brown 10-4 and they cruised to victory. Four of their reserves average 12 or more minutes per game while still two others average seven or more minutes. As other conference teams get tired, Cornell gets going.
And the scary thing is... Cornell has been winning recently without shooting the three-ball really well (just 7 of their last 25). If they come anywhere close to their 42% average from downtown tonight, Penn could lose by 30. The Quakers haven't won a single home game all season and they shoot just 39% as a team there. If Penn even wants a remote chance to keep this one close tonight, they must find some production from anyone NOT named Zack Rosen. Most Penn opponents have had success smothering him every time he touches the ball, and given the Quakers lack of depth on the roster, if Rosen doesn't score this team usually loses by a large margin. Cornell has won every single game in conference play by 14 points or more and has won five of six conference games by 19 or more. Any doubts Penn will be the 7th conference opponent to suffer this fate? Not from this capper. Cornell rolls.
SIENA --- It still baffles me (and even other coaches in the MAAC) how the Saints aren't getting any respect in the National Polls. With absolutely no disrespect to Cornell, how can the Big Red be ranked and not the Saints? Both teams have played very tough non-conference schedules and both are dominating conference play. The difference, to me, might be the fact I watched this Siena team take Ohio State to overtime in last year's Big Dance and eventually pull off the upset. It's not that I don't think Cornell shouldn't be ranked... it's just that I think Siena clearly has a case to be ranked in the top 25, yet they actually fell a few spots in the latest poll (to 35th). Trust me... the coaches and players noticed and they weren't too happy about it. All they can do now is go out and take care of business.
Some of you might be worried that this is a "trap" line as Siena should clearly be favored by more than four points. I mean, they have a four-game lead in conference play right now and it's nearly impossible for them not to win it. But that's the same reasoning I used in my Drake selection Wednesday night... I felt Northern Iowa didn't really care and wouldn't give 100% effort that night because of their big conference lead. Guess what... I was right, but I was also wrong. I don't think Northern Iowa put forth its best effort yet they were still able to win by 9, easily covering the 4-point number. Tonight, I feel Siena is in the same boat. Vegas has adjusted the line to make people buy into that same argument, but I'm taking the better team with better players laying just a few points. Siena hasn't lost a game in conference and it's not going to suffer its first loss to a very average (at best) Niagara team tonight, regardless of where its being played.
PITTSBURGH --- I remember backing West Virginia last year in this very same scenario and cashing in big time. A Big East matchup on a Friday night (which is rare in and of itself), the home team was the lesser-ranked of the two teams (I think Villanova was the opponent last year), yet the road team clearly didn't want to be there on a Friday night and got walloped. As good as West Virginia is, I just don't trust them on the road and I think the line is perfect for us Pitt backers tonight.
Let's also not forget this is a HUGE revenge game for the Panthers as they were just absolutely destroyed, 70-51, in Morgantown back in early February. Don't think they've forgotten that beating they took that night either, because since then Pitt has reeled off two big wins... 83-58 over Seton Hall and 77-53 over Robert Morris. Granted, those aren't two of the better opponents they're going to see, but it's a statement. It's a statement that they aren't going to lay down and get trampled on by the rest of the Big East. Jamie Dixon simply won't allow his kids to play dead, and getting a SU win tonight would go a long way in getting the attention of the rest of the Big East.
Remember, this is also a rivalry game (the Backyard Brawl). Oh sure, it might not get the same attention as Duke/Carolina or Kentucky/Louisville, but these two schools just don't like each other. The Mounties haven't beaten Pitt twice in a season since 2005 and they haven't covered a Friday night game in their last four tries. Pitt has covered 9 of their last 13 games overall (with one push) and have covered 10 of their last 15 games (with two pushes) against teams with winning records. The Friday night crowd in Pittsburgh is going to be "waspy" tonight, just itching to go nuts for their Panthers. I'm calling for a SU Pittsburgh win tonight.
