NCAAF| #108 Ball St (-13.5) vs Buffalo ~ 3 Units
I'm sure Ball St can cover the real spread of -15.5 points but like Ball St, Buffalo has a well balanced offense. I feel MUCH better knowing a 2nd TD for Ball St will put this one in the books. In my opinion, buy this one down to -13.5.
Both of these teams have very good offenses and both have pretty good defenses. Only good difference to look at is Ball St giving up 11 points less on defense. (16/27 Def PPG) I think this game is going to come down to who can hold on to the ball the most. Neither QB has thrown very many interceptions this year. Ball St QB Nate Davis has thrown 7 and Buffalo's Drew Willy has thrown 5. A big turnover difference to check out is Ball State's defense has intercepted the ball 16 times this year while Buffalo has only done it 7 times. With these picks, Ball St has ran them back for 139 total yards with 3 TD's. Buffalo for only 65 yards with no TD's.
Even though both offenses are pretty balanced, Ball State has the clear edge. Ball St is scoring over 37 PPG this year while Buffalo is averaging 30. QB Nate Davis has been on fire this year throwing for 3095 yards in 324 attempts with 25 TD's. Meanwhile Buffalo's QB Drew Willy has 73 attempts more than Ball State and has only thrown for only 2885 yards (210 less) with just 22 TD's.
Like you've seen in some of my other write ups, I respect the power rankings. They give you a deeper insight into teams offensive stats. In this game, Ball St has the 119th ranked schedule and Buffalo has the 90th. Maybe you've heard people say, "Well, Ball St is 12-0 because they haven't played anyone." Well, neither has Buffalo. The MAC Conference isn't exactly the SEC. Take Ball St tonight @ -13.5 and go out for a nice meal with the Mrs tomorrow night.
Thanks and Good Luck
Scott
Scott’s Sports Picks