Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Friday
FRIDAY 12/05/2008
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI
8:00 PM EST - ESPN2
3 STAR SELECTION
Buffalo +15 over Ball State
The 12th-ranked and undefeated Cardinals try to continue their remarkable run Friday night, as they take on the Bulls in the Mid-American Conference Championship game at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Ball State is coming off a West Division-clinching home victory over Western Michigan and is also one of just four undefeated teams left at the FBS level.
Buffalo won the East title with a remarkable run of four straight victories, including three on the road. The team won two conference games in overtime and another on a last second play en route to its first outright division crown.
The Bulls, on offense, aren't the most prolific of the MAC teams, but they have enjoyed a good amount of success, averaging 30 ppg and 387 total ypg. The unit has been able to move the ball on the ground with 145 ypg and through the air with over 240 ypg. Buffalo hasn't done much to hurt itself, either, committing just 11 turnovers on the year. Tailback James Starks has played a big part in the squad's success, as he has rushed for over 1,200 yards with 14 TDs. The air attack is led by QB Drew Willy, who has enjoyed a productive campaign. On the season, Willy has completed 65% of pass attempts for nearly 2,900 yards, with 22 TDs and only 5 INTs.
Defensively, Buffalo has struggled at times to slow down opposing clubs, allowing nearly 28 ppg and 400 total ypg; however, those numbers are somewhat skewed by the numerous overtime rounds played this season. The Bulls have created 23 turnovers, which is a positive for a defense that usually does enough to keep the team in the game.
Ball State brings in one of the most potent offensive attacks to this championship game, as they are producing nearly 38 ppg behind 455.8 total ypg. The offense has displayed good balance between the run and pass and has been outstanding in protecting the ball, committing just 10 turnovers. MiQuale Lewis has rushed for 1,570 yards and an impressive 20 TDs. Quarterback Nate Davis is every bit as dangerous and he has completed an efficient 67% of his throws for nearly 3,100 yards, with 25 TDs and 6 INTs. He can also be effective with his legs, rushing for 241 yards and four more scores.
On defense, the Cardinals are holding opponents to a mere 17 ppg and just over 350 total ypg. The unit has shown itself to be vulnerable at times, giving up over 145 rushing ypg and over 200 passing ypg.
Buffalo is being given no chance to pull off the upset here, but they have been fierce underdogs, as they obviously relish flying under the radar. As it is, the Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games away from home, all as underdogs, winning the last 3 outright. The covers also include spread wins at bowl-bound BCS teams Pittsburgh and Missouri this season.
Buffalo also qualifies for a number of our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. First, we note that Conference Championship underdogs at the right price have been very competitive, despite entering the game with a sub-.750% record. Specifically:
Play ON a sub-.750% Conference Championship underdog of 5½-21½ points.
These teams are 9-0 ATS ALL-TIME, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average. These dogs have won the last 4 qualifying games OUTRIGHT, despite being dogs of 6½-14½ points. Two of those upset victories came in the MAC Championship game, and 4 of the 9 overall came in the “Big Mac” contest.
More database research confirms that big underdogs have had a big bite in Conference Championship Games. This POWER SYSTEM states:
Play ON a Conference Championship underdog of 10½-21½ points vs. an opponent not off a road favorite ATS loss, scoring less than 28 points.
These teams are 9-0 ATS ALL-TIME, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average!
Even coming off a double-digit spread loss as the Bulls are, Conference Championship teams have been under-rated under the conditions outlined by another POWER SYSTEM which reads:
Play ON a Conference Championship team (not a favorite of more than 24 points) off a non-multiple OT ATS loss of 10+ points (not as a favorite of 16+ points).
Over the past decade, these teams are 7-0 ATS, beating the spread by 12 ppg on average.
The Cardinals may be taking Buffalo a bit lightly themselves. There has been serious discussion between bowl representatives, school officials, conference commissioners and ESPN about pairing Ball State and Boise State in a bowl game, assuming the Cardinals will win the MAC title to improve their record to 13-0.
Boise State finished its regular season last week with a 12-0 record. The Broncos have been a contender for a BCS bowl game, but that isn't likely to happen, and they appear headed for an appearance in the Humanitarian Bowl on their home field.
There's a push to get Ball State into the Humanitarian game to play Boise State, but the Cardinals aren't excited about essentially playing a road game in the stadium where the Broncos are 64-3 in the past 10 years.
So negotiations have started about whether the two could be matched in another bowl game. That could require teams slated for a particular bowl game headed to a different game in a series of dominoes that must fall to make Ball State-Boise State happen.
"If you ask any coach, he'd rather play at a neutral site," Cardinals coach Brady Hoke told the Muncie (Ind.) Star Press about a possible bowl against the Broncos. "(Boise) has a great following, which they deserve, and they're a great, well-coached football team. It would be a big challenge for us anyway, without playing them on their home field."
This could well prove to be a distraction for Ball State, and while nothing is official yet, unbeaten teams looking ahead to playing another foe without a loss have been flat in the game at hand. Specifically, undefeated teams at least 9-0 are 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) as a conference favorite of 4½-19 points before playing another undefeated opponent.
Again, it seems everyone is handing this game to the Cardinals, including the wagering public. As contrarians, we like to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. Such is the case here, as nearly 80% of wagers being made at the sportsbooks we monitor are going for Ball State.
As good as the Cardinals have been, they continue to be unreliable as a big favorite, as they are 0-9-1 ATS (-8 ppg) as a conference favorite of 8+ points away from home with less than 13 days rest.
Ball State has enjoyed some extra time off, but will they be sharp? Teams off a long layoff after a huge scoring effort have come out flat in Conference Championship Games. It’s only happened twice, but Conference Championship games with 9+ days rest off scoring 40+ points are 0-2 SU & ATS, losing OUTRIGHT BY 28 POINTS and FAILING TO COVER THE SPREAD BY MORE THAN 30 POINTS PER GAME!
Of course, the public loves to back a hot team, and the hotter the better. Our thorough database research shows, though, that that is not the way to bet it.
Coming off at least 7 straight victories, Conference Championship favorites in the price range described by this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours have been over-rated by the oddsmakers and the public:
Play AGAINST a Conference Championship home/neutral site favorite of 4-21½ points off 7 SU wins and not an ATS loss of more than 16 points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 38+ points.
These teams are 0-9 ATS ALL-TIME, failing to cover the spread by 16 ppg on average!
Even a PERFECT record on the season has not meant success for favorites in Conference Championship Games. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM which instructs:
Play AGAINST an undefeated Conference Championship favorite of 3½-21½ points not off an ATS loss of 18+ points.
The undefeated teams have gone 0-6 ATS, while failing to cover the spread by more than 15 ppg.
Finally, despite finishing the regular season with at least 2 more wins than its opponent, Conference Championship favorites of 3 TDs or less have struggled against under-rated foes. This is documented by yet another POWER SYSTEM which reads:
Play AGAINST a Conference Championship favorite of less than 22 points vs. an opponent with 2+ less season SU wins not off 4 SU wins as a favorite of more than 4 points.
This system is also perfect ALL-TIME, as these favored teams are a disastrous 0-12 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
As Buffalo has shown time and again this season, they will not go away and battle to the end. We look for them to keep this one closer than most expect against a Cardinals team that might be caught looking past the under-valued Bulls.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 35 BUFFALO 27
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FRIDAY 12/05/2008
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI
8:00 PM EST - ESPN2
3 STAR SELECTION
Buffalo +15 over Ball State
The 12th-ranked and undefeated Cardinals try to continue their remarkable run Friday night, as they take on the Bulls in the Mid-American Conference Championship game at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Ball State is coming off a West Division-clinching home victory over Western Michigan and is also one of just four undefeated teams left at the FBS level.
Buffalo won the East title with a remarkable run of four straight victories, including three on the road. The team won two conference games in overtime and another on a last second play en route to its first outright division crown.
The Bulls, on offense, aren't the most prolific of the MAC teams, but they have enjoyed a good amount of success, averaging 30 ppg and 387 total ypg. The unit has been able to move the ball on the ground with 145 ypg and through the air with over 240 ypg. Buffalo hasn't done much to hurt itself, either, committing just 11 turnovers on the year. Tailback James Starks has played a big part in the squad's success, as he has rushed for over 1,200 yards with 14 TDs. The air attack is led by QB Drew Willy, who has enjoyed a productive campaign. On the season, Willy has completed 65% of pass attempts for nearly 2,900 yards, with 22 TDs and only 5 INTs.
Defensively, Buffalo has struggled at times to slow down opposing clubs, allowing nearly 28 ppg and 400 total ypg; however, those numbers are somewhat skewed by the numerous overtime rounds played this season. The Bulls have created 23 turnovers, which is a positive for a defense that usually does enough to keep the team in the game.
Ball State brings in one of the most potent offensive attacks to this championship game, as they are producing nearly 38 ppg behind 455.8 total ypg. The offense has displayed good balance between the run and pass and has been outstanding in protecting the ball, committing just 10 turnovers. MiQuale Lewis has rushed for 1,570 yards and an impressive 20 TDs. Quarterback Nate Davis is every bit as dangerous and he has completed an efficient 67% of his throws for nearly 3,100 yards, with 25 TDs and 6 INTs. He can also be effective with his legs, rushing for 241 yards and four more scores.
On defense, the Cardinals are holding opponents to a mere 17 ppg and just over 350 total ypg. The unit has shown itself to be vulnerable at times, giving up over 145 rushing ypg and over 200 passing ypg.
Buffalo is being given no chance to pull off the upset here, but they have been fierce underdogs, as they obviously relish flying under the radar. As it is, the Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games away from home, all as underdogs, winning the last 3 outright. The covers also include spread wins at bowl-bound BCS teams Pittsburgh and Missouri this season.
Buffalo also qualifies for a number of our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. First, we note that Conference Championship underdogs at the right price have been very competitive, despite entering the game with a sub-.750% record. Specifically:
Play ON a sub-.750% Conference Championship underdog of 5½-21½ points.
These teams are 9-0 ATS ALL-TIME, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average. These dogs have won the last 4 qualifying games OUTRIGHT, despite being dogs of 6½-14½ points. Two of those upset victories came in the MAC Championship game, and 4 of the 9 overall came in the “Big Mac” contest.
More database research confirms that big underdogs have had a big bite in Conference Championship Games. This POWER SYSTEM states:
Play ON a Conference Championship underdog of 10½-21½ points vs. an opponent not off a road favorite ATS loss, scoring less than 28 points.
These teams are 9-0 ATS ALL-TIME, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg on average!
Even coming off a double-digit spread loss as the Bulls are, Conference Championship teams have been under-rated under the conditions outlined by another POWER SYSTEM which reads:
Play ON a Conference Championship team (not a favorite of more than 24 points) off a non-multiple OT ATS loss of 10+ points (not as a favorite of 16+ points).
Over the past decade, these teams are 7-0 ATS, beating the spread by 12 ppg on average.
The Cardinals may be taking Buffalo a bit lightly themselves. There has been serious discussion between bowl representatives, school officials, conference commissioners and ESPN about pairing Ball State and Boise State in a bowl game, assuming the Cardinals will win the MAC title to improve their record to 13-0.
Boise State finished its regular season last week with a 12-0 record. The Broncos have been a contender for a BCS bowl game, but that isn't likely to happen, and they appear headed for an appearance in the Humanitarian Bowl on their home field.
There's a push to get Ball State into the Humanitarian game to play Boise State, but the Cardinals aren't excited about essentially playing a road game in the stadium where the Broncos are 64-3 in the past 10 years.
So negotiations have started about whether the two could be matched in another bowl game. That could require teams slated for a particular bowl game headed to a different game in a series of dominoes that must fall to make Ball State-Boise State happen.
"If you ask any coach, he'd rather play at a neutral site," Cardinals coach Brady Hoke told the Muncie (Ind.) Star Press about a possible bowl against the Broncos. "(Boise) has a great following, which they deserve, and they're a great, well-coached football team. It would be a big challenge for us anyway, without playing them on their home field."
This could well prove to be a distraction for Ball State, and while nothing is official yet, unbeaten teams looking ahead to playing another foe without a loss have been flat in the game at hand. Specifically, undefeated teams at least 9-0 are 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) as a conference favorite of 4½-19 points before playing another undefeated opponent.
Again, it seems everyone is handing this game to the Cardinals, including the wagering public. As contrarians, we like to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. Such is the case here, as nearly 80% of wagers being made at the sportsbooks we monitor are going for Ball State.
As good as the Cardinals have been, they continue to be unreliable as a big favorite, as they are 0-9-1 ATS (-8 ppg) as a conference favorite of 8+ points away from home with less than 13 days rest.
Ball State has enjoyed some extra time off, but will they be sharp? Teams off a long layoff after a huge scoring effort have come out flat in Conference Championship Games. It’s only happened twice, but Conference Championship games with 9+ days rest off scoring 40+ points are 0-2 SU & ATS, losing OUTRIGHT BY 28 POINTS and FAILING TO COVER THE SPREAD BY MORE THAN 30 POINTS PER GAME!
Of course, the public loves to back a hot team, and the hotter the better. Our thorough database research shows, though, that that is not the way to bet it.
Coming off at least 7 straight victories, Conference Championship favorites in the price range described by this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM of ours have been over-rated by the oddsmakers and the public:
Play AGAINST a Conference Championship home/neutral site favorite of 4-21½ points off 7 SU wins and not an ATS loss of more than 16 points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 38+ points.
These teams are 0-9 ATS ALL-TIME, failing to cover the spread by 16 ppg on average!
Even a PERFECT record on the season has not meant success for favorites in Conference Championship Games. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM which instructs:
Play AGAINST an undefeated Conference Championship favorite of 3½-21½ points not off an ATS loss of 18+ points.
The undefeated teams have gone 0-6 ATS, while failing to cover the spread by more than 15 ppg.
Finally, despite finishing the regular season with at least 2 more wins than its opponent, Conference Championship favorites of 3 TDs or less have struggled against under-rated foes. This is documented by yet another POWER SYSTEM which reads:
Play AGAINST a Conference Championship favorite of less than 22 points vs. an opponent with 2+ less season SU wins not off 4 SU wins as a favorite of more than 4 points.
This system is also perfect ALL-TIME, as these favored teams are a disastrous 0-12 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
As Buffalo has shown time and again this season, they will not go away and battle to the end. We look for them to keep this one closer than most expect against a Cardinals team that might be caught looking past the under-valued Bulls.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 35 BUFFALO 27
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