adam meyer (cut and pasted)
Friday, December 26, 2008 at 7:30 PM]
Central Michigan (-7 Points) vs. Florida Atlantic University
(Motor City Bowl - ESPNFORD FIELD - Detroit, MI)
This is the second 10 unit play I have given out this year. The other one was an easy Alabama victory in the regular season! I urge every member to play the maximum amount on this play that you can! This play is information-based and not-analysis driven.
Play: Central Michigan (-7 Points) **10 UNITS ***
3* knicks
2* panthers
gl
Friday, December 26, 2008 at 7:30 PM]
Central Michigan (-7 Points) vs. Florida Atlantic University
(Motor City Bowl - ESPNFORD FIELD - Detroit, MI)
This is the second 10 unit play I have given out this year. The other one was an easy Alabama victory in the regular season! I urge every member to play the maximum amount on this play that you can! This play is information-based and not-analysis driven.
Play: Central Michigan (-7 Points) **10 UNITS ***
3* knicks
2* panthers
gl
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Friday
MOTOR CITY BOWL - FORD FIELD, DETROIT
DECEMBER 26, 8 PM EST - ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
Florida Atlantic +7 over Central Michigan
The Chippewas will make their third consecutive appearance in the Motor City Bowl on Friday when they take on the Owls. Both of these teams were champions of their respective conferences last season, but failed to duplicate that effort this season, but did well enough to get bowl invites.
Last season Florida Atlantic earned a spot in the New Orleans Bowl where the team dismantled Memphis, 44-27. Early on this year the Owls did not perform like a postseason team. In fact, they dropped five of their first six games, including four straight. Florida Atlantic took on the challenge to rebound and the team did just that, winning five of its last six contests to finish 6-6. Florida Atlantic closed out its regular season, and became bowl eligible with a thrilling, 57-50 overtime victory over rival Florida International.
Central Michigan will be making their third straight bowl appearance with their lone bowl victory coming back in 2006 when they defeated Middle Tennessee, 31-14, in appearance #1 in the Motor City Bowl. Last year, the Chippewas fell in this bowl to Purdue in heartbreaking fashion, 51-48. CMU suffered another tough loss to Purdue, 32-25 this season, but then caught fire, winning six consecutive games, setting up a shot at another Mid-American Conference title. Unfortunately the Chips would not get that chance, as the team fell to Ball State, 31-24 at home. What was even more stunning was the team's 56-52 loss to Eastern Michigan in its season-finale.
The Owls flew high this season in large part because of the team's success through the air, as Florida Atlantic averaged over 250 passing ypg. Overall Florida Atlantic produced nearly 400 total ypg, leading to a healthy 25 ppg. Rusty Smith led the way under center, as the QB threw for almost 3000 yards and 22 touchdowns. He was also named the Sun Belt Player of the Year. While the passing attack for the Owls gets most of the attention, the ground game can’t be overlooked, as it churned out over 140 ypg on the ground, and averaged 4.5 ypc. RB Charles Pierre earned All-Sun Belt Second Team honors with nearly 1000 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns, while racking up 6.5 ypc.
Where the Owls had trouble this season was on the defensive side of the football, as the squad allowed more than 400 total ypg, and that led to 29 ppg. The defensive unit was really abused on the ground, surrendering 183 ypg and 23 rushing touchdowns on the year; however, they did fare better against the pass.
Much like the Owls, the Chippewas rely heavily on their passing attack, as the team torched opponents for a almost 300 ypg through the air this season. Overall this unit produced 427 total ypg, and that led to an impressive 30 ppg. Dan LeFevour, who was the MAC Player of the Year this past season, finished with over 2,500 passing yards and 19 TDs against just 5 interceptions. Unfortunately for CMU, the team did not enjoy much success with its ground attack, as the team's leading rusher was LeFevour with 536 yards.
Central Michigan's defensive unit was torched for more than 285 ypg through the air this season. Overall this defense allowed 424 total ypg, and that led to 31 ppg. The unit also had trouble getting off the field, as the team allowed opponents to convert on 44 percent of their third down attempts and 50 percent of their fourth down chances.
This game figures to be somewhat of a shoot-out, and we like the Owls chances of keeping up. Howard Schnellenberger certainly knows how to get a team ready for a Bowl game, as he is 5-0 SU & ATS lifetime in bowl games. Way back in 1983, Schnellenberger coached Miami to a 31-30 upset of Nebraska in the Orange Bowl that clinched the first of Miami's five national titles.
We have several more handicapping factors and technical details that have us with the underdog in this game.
First, we generally look to play ON a Christmas-New Year’s Eve underdog. For every over-confident favorite this time of year, there's usually a motivated, quality underdog.
We also like to play ON a Bowl underdog with the better Yards Per Play difference. The YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, the higher the YPP the better, and on the defensive side, the lower the better. An underdog with a higher YPP differential has the potential to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning the game outright. It’s rare that an underdog this big has an actual YPP edge, but such is the case here.
Despite allowing 50+ points in one of its final 2 games, Bowl underdogs of more than a FG have been undervalued under the conditions outlined in a Bowl POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of more than 3 points with less than 36 days rest off allowing 50+ points in its last game or game before that vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship favorite SU & ATS win.
This situation is a perfect 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, beating the spread by 10 ppg on average. It may be even better than that but the SportsDataBase goes back only to 1980.
Another handicapping strategy is to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'. Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happen a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. Here, the Chippewas opened as 6½-point favorites, which has climbed to 7 at most sportsbooks.
While Central Michigan is playing this game in nearby Detroit, we often look to play AGAINST a Bowl favorite that is playing at home or close to home in-state. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local “red-carpet” a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team. What makes matters worse, is that the team has played here the past 2 years. Teams can certainly get stale returning once again to the same spot as years previous. BYU, for example, played in their 4th straight Las Vegas Bowl this week, and they have failed to cover the spread in the last 2 tries at “Sin City”.
We’ve also found that teams playing poor defense in their final 3 games, have had no business being installed as a bowl favorite. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
From December 23rd on, play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 3+ points off allowing 25+ points in each of its last 3 games vs. an opponent with less than 38 days rest. Over the past decade of Bowl play, these teams are a horrible 0-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 17 ppg on average.
Finally, despite even having a better record, Bowl favorites off a favorite loss have struggled under the conditions described in our last NCAA Football Bowl POWER SYSTEM. Central Michigan qualifies for this one that states:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite with less than 41 days rest off a favorite SU loss vs. an opponent with fewer season SU wins not off a conference home SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points.
Since the early 1980s, these teams are 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 23 ppg on average.
The Chippewas poor defense and expected over-confidence will contribute to this game being much close than they would like and give the Owls the opportunity to steal a win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 30
Cajun-Sports NBA Executive -Friday
TIME: 7:35 PM EST. Friday Dec. 26
GAME: Charlotte Bobcats vs. New Jersey Nets -4.5
PLAY: 4* Charlotte Bobcats +4.5
ANALYSIS:
The Izod Center will be the site of Friday night’s clash between the host New Jersey Nets and the visiting Bobcats from Charlotte. This is Part 1 of a home-and-home for these two teams as they will play the second game in Charlotte on Saturday.
Both teams enter tonight’s contest off wins in their last games. The Bobcats won at home as 6 point chalk 80 to 72 over the Washington Wizards on Tuesday. The Nets went into Indiana and stole a win as a 2.5 point road underdog 108 to 107 on Tuesday night.
Charlotte’s win on Tuesday over the Wizards was their third win in four games after losing a season-high seven in a row. The Bobcats averaged 108.3 points on 52.1 percent shooting in their three previous games, but shot just 41.7 percent and turned the ball over 18 times against the Wizards. Emeka Okafor bailed the team out by scoring a season-high 29 points and grabbing 18 rebounds.
After the Bobcats win over the Wizards Head Coach Larry Brown said "That was like going to the dentist," "But thank God for Emeka." The Bobcats will have their turnover problem corrected for tonight’s game as we are sure Coach Brown addressed that issue right away. We also expect them to improve on their shooting percentage in this contest. The Nets have only held the Cats below 42% one time with the Cats shooting 40.7%, 42.9%, 46.8% and 58.7% respectively their last four meetings.
On Tuesday in Indiana, Devin Harris hit a jump shot from the top of the key as time expired to give New Jersey that 108 to 107 victory. Harris had a season-low 10 points on 2-of-9 shooting in Monday's 114-91 loss to Houston, but finished with 29 points and 11 assists Tuesday to help the Nets win for just the third time in nine games and move back to the break-even mark.
New Jersey has lost 5 of its last 6 home games, and is just 5-10 SU and ATS at the Izod Center. The Nets have been blown out in their 10 home losses, being outscored by an average of 16.2 points in those games.
The Bobcats struggle on the highway in terms of SU victories with a record of 2-9 SU but they are money in the bank where we are concerned posting an 8-3 ATS record in those road contests. They are also 3-2 SU their last five games overall and a very solid 4-1 ATS.
Charlotte is also active in two of our statistical indicators that are 49-22-3 ATS and 69-44-2 ATS. The first indicator is the one that gave us the LA Lakers in a huge win over the Boston Celtics on Christmas Day.
New Jersey’s straight up and ATS win over Indiana on Tuesday triggers two negative angles that tell us the Nets are 1-9 ATS after winning SU/ATS and going “Over” in their last game if they are installed as a favorite. That record is 1-8 ATS if they are installed as a home favorite under the same circumstances.
CHARLOTTE is 45-23 ATS after scoring 85 points or less since 1996. NEW JERSEY is 4-13 ATS in home games in December games over the last 2 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 9-23 ATS in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 4-15 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Finally we have an NBA Power System that tells us to Play AGAINST NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win as a road underdog, with a team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, 43-17 ATS the last five seasons.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support for the Bobcats in this contest we will back them here and recommend you take the points with the visitor as they take this one right down to the wire and possibly get the outright win!
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) Charlotte Bobcats 97 New Jersey Nets 98
TIME: 7:35 PM EST. Friday Dec. 26
GAME: Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks -6.5
PLAY: 3* New York Knicks -6.5
ANALYSIS:
Madison Square Garden will be the site of tonight’s clash between the host New York Knicks and the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Both teams are suffering through losing streaks with Minnesota staring at their 14th if they lose here and the Knicks are not as bad but in the midst of a four-game losing streak of their own.
The Timberwolves have struggled defending not only during their losing streak but all season, ranking 26th in defensive field goal percentage with 47.5% and forcing only 13.1 turnovers per game. Teams have taken advantage of Minnesota on the road during this slide, shooting 49.5% overall including 43.4% from behind the arc, scoring 106.3 points per game and committing only 11.9 turnovers.
The Knicks dropped their fourth in a row Sunday in a 124 to 105 loss at Boston. Quentin Richardson scored 29 points and hit five of New York's 13 3-pointers. Not many teams have fared well against the Celtics this season so to use this game as a measuring stick could be somewhat unfair. We expect a much different result with the Knicks hosting the T-Wolves.
With first-year coach Mike D'Antoni installing his up-tempo system, it was a given the Knicks would allow more points, but they have struggled in making the transition defensively. They are last in defensive field goal percentage at 48.2% and 29th in scoring defense with 107.9 points per game but the Timberwolves do not have the ability to take advantage of these weaknesses they are only averaging 95.9 points per game on the road while shooting a mere 42.8% from the field.
Technical support of our selection comes from the fact that Minnesota is 68-95 ATS as a underdog of 6 to 7.5 points. If they covered the spread in their last game and now have a line range of 6 to 7.5 they are 54-80 ATS, if installed as an underdog the record is 28-46 ATS. If the T-Wolves lost SU but won ATS in their last game and are now involved in a game with a line range of 6 to 7.5 they are 11-30 ATS. If they are on the road that record is 4-13 ATS. If they are installed as a road underdog under the same conditions they are a miserable 5-21 ATS. New York is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season and 12-2 ATS if they lost their last three games are now involved in a game with a line range of 6 to 7.5.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the host here and recommend that you lay the points with the Knicks as they get an easy win and cover to end their short losing streak.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) New York Knicks 112 Minnesota T-Wolves 97
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MOTOR CITY BOWL - FORD FIELD, DETROIT
DECEMBER 26, 8 PM EST - ESPN
3 STAR SELECTION
Florida Atlantic +7 over Central Michigan
The Chippewas will make their third consecutive appearance in the Motor City Bowl on Friday when they take on the Owls. Both of these teams were champions of their respective conferences last season, but failed to duplicate that effort this season, but did well enough to get bowl invites.
Last season Florida Atlantic earned a spot in the New Orleans Bowl where the team dismantled Memphis, 44-27. Early on this year the Owls did not perform like a postseason team. In fact, they dropped five of their first six games, including four straight. Florida Atlantic took on the challenge to rebound and the team did just that, winning five of its last six contests to finish 6-6. Florida Atlantic closed out its regular season, and became bowl eligible with a thrilling, 57-50 overtime victory over rival Florida International.
Central Michigan will be making their third straight bowl appearance with their lone bowl victory coming back in 2006 when they defeated Middle Tennessee, 31-14, in appearance #1 in the Motor City Bowl. Last year, the Chippewas fell in this bowl to Purdue in heartbreaking fashion, 51-48. CMU suffered another tough loss to Purdue, 32-25 this season, but then caught fire, winning six consecutive games, setting up a shot at another Mid-American Conference title. Unfortunately the Chips would not get that chance, as the team fell to Ball State, 31-24 at home. What was even more stunning was the team's 56-52 loss to Eastern Michigan in its season-finale.
The Owls flew high this season in large part because of the team's success through the air, as Florida Atlantic averaged over 250 passing ypg. Overall Florida Atlantic produced nearly 400 total ypg, leading to a healthy 25 ppg. Rusty Smith led the way under center, as the QB threw for almost 3000 yards and 22 touchdowns. He was also named the Sun Belt Player of the Year. While the passing attack for the Owls gets most of the attention, the ground game can’t be overlooked, as it churned out over 140 ypg on the ground, and averaged 4.5 ypc. RB Charles Pierre earned All-Sun Belt Second Team honors with nearly 1000 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns, while racking up 6.5 ypc.
Where the Owls had trouble this season was on the defensive side of the football, as the squad allowed more than 400 total ypg, and that led to 29 ppg. The defensive unit was really abused on the ground, surrendering 183 ypg and 23 rushing touchdowns on the year; however, they did fare better against the pass.
Much like the Owls, the Chippewas rely heavily on their passing attack, as the team torched opponents for a almost 300 ypg through the air this season. Overall this unit produced 427 total ypg, and that led to an impressive 30 ppg. Dan LeFevour, who was the MAC Player of the Year this past season, finished with over 2,500 passing yards and 19 TDs against just 5 interceptions. Unfortunately for CMU, the team did not enjoy much success with its ground attack, as the team's leading rusher was LeFevour with 536 yards.
Central Michigan's defensive unit was torched for more than 285 ypg through the air this season. Overall this defense allowed 424 total ypg, and that led to 31 ppg. The unit also had trouble getting off the field, as the team allowed opponents to convert on 44 percent of their third down attempts and 50 percent of their fourth down chances.
This game figures to be somewhat of a shoot-out, and we like the Owls chances of keeping up. Howard Schnellenberger certainly knows how to get a team ready for a Bowl game, as he is 5-0 SU & ATS lifetime in bowl games. Way back in 1983, Schnellenberger coached Miami to a 31-30 upset of Nebraska in the Orange Bowl that clinched the first of Miami's five national titles.
We have several more handicapping factors and technical details that have us with the underdog in this game.
First, we generally look to play ON a Christmas-New Year’s Eve underdog. For every over-confident favorite this time of year, there's usually a motivated, quality underdog.
We also like to play ON a Bowl underdog with the better Yards Per Play difference. The YPP is a measure of team efficiency, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, the higher the YPP the better, and on the defensive side, the lower the better. An underdog with a higher YPP differential has the potential to control the line of scrimmage and consequently, a great chance of winning the game outright. It’s rare that an underdog this big has an actual YPP edge, but such is the case here.
Despite allowing 50+ points in one of its final 2 games, Bowl underdogs of more than a FG have been undervalued under the conditions outlined in a Bowl POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of more than 3 points with less than 36 days rest off allowing 50+ points in its last game or game before that vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship favorite SU & ATS win.
This situation is a perfect 10-0 ATS since at least 1980, beating the spread by 10 ppg on average. It may be even better than that but the SportsDataBase goes back only to 1980.
Another handicapping strategy is to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'. Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happen a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. Here, the Chippewas opened as 6½-point favorites, which has climbed to 7 at most sportsbooks.
While Central Michigan is playing this game in nearby Detroit, we often look to play AGAINST a Bowl favorite that is playing at home or close to home in-state. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local “red-carpet” a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team. What makes matters worse, is that the team has played here the past 2 years. Teams can certainly get stale returning once again to the same spot as years previous. BYU, for example, played in their 4th straight Las Vegas Bowl this week, and they have failed to cover the spread in the last 2 tries at “Sin City”.
We’ve also found that teams playing poor defense in their final 3 games, have had no business being installed as a bowl favorite. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
From December 23rd on, play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 3+ points off allowing 25+ points in each of its last 3 games vs. an opponent with less than 38 days rest. Over the past decade of Bowl play, these teams are a horrible 0-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 17 ppg on average.
Finally, despite even having a better record, Bowl favorites off a favorite loss have struggled under the conditions described in our last NCAA Football Bowl POWER SYSTEM. Central Michigan qualifies for this one that states:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite with less than 41 days rest off a favorite SU loss vs. an opponent with fewer season SU wins not off a conference home SU loss as a favorite of more than 8 points.
Since the early 1980s, these teams are 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 23 ppg on average.
The Chippewas poor defense and expected over-confidence will contribute to this game being much close than they would like and give the Owls the opportunity to steal a win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 30
Cajun-Sports NBA Executive -Friday
TIME: 7:35 PM EST. Friday Dec. 26
GAME: Charlotte Bobcats vs. New Jersey Nets -4.5
PLAY: 4* Charlotte Bobcats +4.5
ANALYSIS:
The Izod Center will be the site of Friday night’s clash between the host New Jersey Nets and the visiting Bobcats from Charlotte. This is Part 1 of a home-and-home for these two teams as they will play the second game in Charlotte on Saturday.
Both teams enter tonight’s contest off wins in their last games. The Bobcats won at home as 6 point chalk 80 to 72 over the Washington Wizards on Tuesday. The Nets went into Indiana and stole a win as a 2.5 point road underdog 108 to 107 on Tuesday night.
Charlotte’s win on Tuesday over the Wizards was their third win in four games after losing a season-high seven in a row. The Bobcats averaged 108.3 points on 52.1 percent shooting in their three previous games, but shot just 41.7 percent and turned the ball over 18 times against the Wizards. Emeka Okafor bailed the team out by scoring a season-high 29 points and grabbing 18 rebounds.
After the Bobcats win over the Wizards Head Coach Larry Brown said "That was like going to the dentist," "But thank God for Emeka." The Bobcats will have their turnover problem corrected for tonight’s game as we are sure Coach Brown addressed that issue right away. We also expect them to improve on their shooting percentage in this contest. The Nets have only held the Cats below 42% one time with the Cats shooting 40.7%, 42.9%, 46.8% and 58.7% respectively their last four meetings.
On Tuesday in Indiana, Devin Harris hit a jump shot from the top of the key as time expired to give New Jersey that 108 to 107 victory. Harris had a season-low 10 points on 2-of-9 shooting in Monday's 114-91 loss to Houston, but finished with 29 points and 11 assists Tuesday to help the Nets win for just the third time in nine games and move back to the break-even mark.
New Jersey has lost 5 of its last 6 home games, and is just 5-10 SU and ATS at the Izod Center. The Nets have been blown out in their 10 home losses, being outscored by an average of 16.2 points in those games.
The Bobcats struggle on the highway in terms of SU victories with a record of 2-9 SU but they are money in the bank where we are concerned posting an 8-3 ATS record in those road contests. They are also 3-2 SU their last five games overall and a very solid 4-1 ATS.
Charlotte is also active in two of our statistical indicators that are 49-22-3 ATS and 69-44-2 ATS. The first indicator is the one that gave us the LA Lakers in a huge win over the Boston Celtics on Christmas Day.
New Jersey’s straight up and ATS win over Indiana on Tuesday triggers two negative angles that tell us the Nets are 1-9 ATS after winning SU/ATS and going “Over” in their last game if they are installed as a favorite. That record is 1-8 ATS if they are installed as a home favorite under the same circumstances.
CHARLOTTE is 45-23 ATS after scoring 85 points or less since 1996. NEW JERSEY is 4-13 ATS in home games in December games over the last 2 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 9-23 ATS in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 4-15 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
Finally we have an NBA Power System that tells us to Play AGAINST NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win as a road underdog, with a team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, 43-17 ATS the last five seasons.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support for the Bobcats in this contest we will back them here and recommend you take the points with the visitor as they take this one right down to the wire and possibly get the outright win!
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) Charlotte Bobcats 97 New Jersey Nets 98
TIME: 7:35 PM EST. Friday Dec. 26
GAME: Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks -6.5
PLAY: 3* New York Knicks -6.5
ANALYSIS:
Madison Square Garden will be the site of tonight’s clash between the host New York Knicks and the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Both teams are suffering through losing streaks with Minnesota staring at their 14th if they lose here and the Knicks are not as bad but in the midst of a four-game losing streak of their own.
The Timberwolves have struggled defending not only during their losing streak but all season, ranking 26th in defensive field goal percentage with 47.5% and forcing only 13.1 turnovers per game. Teams have taken advantage of Minnesota on the road during this slide, shooting 49.5% overall including 43.4% from behind the arc, scoring 106.3 points per game and committing only 11.9 turnovers.
The Knicks dropped their fourth in a row Sunday in a 124 to 105 loss at Boston. Quentin Richardson scored 29 points and hit five of New York's 13 3-pointers. Not many teams have fared well against the Celtics this season so to use this game as a measuring stick could be somewhat unfair. We expect a much different result with the Knicks hosting the T-Wolves.
With first-year coach Mike D'Antoni installing his up-tempo system, it was a given the Knicks would allow more points, but they have struggled in making the transition defensively. They are last in defensive field goal percentage at 48.2% and 29th in scoring defense with 107.9 points per game but the Timberwolves do not have the ability to take advantage of these weaknesses they are only averaging 95.9 points per game on the road while shooting a mere 42.8% from the field.
Technical support of our selection comes from the fact that Minnesota is 68-95 ATS as a underdog of 6 to 7.5 points. If they covered the spread in their last game and now have a line range of 6 to 7.5 they are 54-80 ATS, if installed as an underdog the record is 28-46 ATS. If the T-Wolves lost SU but won ATS in their last game and are now involved in a game with a line range of 6 to 7.5 they are 11-30 ATS. If they are on the road that record is 4-13 ATS. If they are installed as a road underdog under the same conditions they are a miserable 5-21 ATS. New York is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season and 12-2 ATS if they lost their last three games are now involved in a game with a line range of 6 to 7.5.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the host here and recommend that you lay the points with the Knicks as they get an easy win and cover to end their short losing streak.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) New York Knicks 112 Minnesota T-Wolves 97
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Wunderdog NHL
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Tampa Bay at Florida (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay +130 (moneyline)
The Lightning has not had a good season, but should have a buzz of confidence coming in here tonight. Tampa Bay enters this one off a stunning upset shutout win on the road over last year's Stanley Cup runner up Penguins. They dominated the entire game which saw them put up 29 shots on goal to the Penguins 15. This gives the Lightning some high hopes of coming in here and doing the same. The one place the Lightning have excelled is when they have had two day’s rest as they have put together a 9-4 mark after two days off the ice in their last 13. The Panthers have been up-and-down the shutout scale at home as all three of their last home games have resulted in shutouts - two in their favor, one against. The Panthers have been horrible off of two day’s rest as they are just a woeful 34-70-6 on their last 110 in this situation. The Lightning is a live dog here, and I'll back them in this one.
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Tampa Bay at Florida (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay +130 (moneyline)
The Lightning has not had a good season, but should have a buzz of confidence coming in here tonight. Tampa Bay enters this one off a stunning upset shutout win on the road over last year's Stanley Cup runner up Penguins. They dominated the entire game which saw them put up 29 shots on goal to the Penguins 15. This gives the Lightning some high hopes of coming in here and doing the same. The one place the Lightning have excelled is when they have had two day’s rest as they have put together a 9-4 mark after two days off the ice in their last 13. The Panthers have been up-and-down the shutout scale at home as all three of their last home games have resulted in shutouts - two in their favor, one against. The Panthers have been horrible off of two day’s rest as they are just a woeful 34-70-6 on their last 110 in this situation. The Lightning is a live dog here, and I'll back them in this one.
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