THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Florida Atlantic (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Central Michigan (8-4, 5-4-2 ATS) (at Detroit)
Florida Atlantic will try to continue its amazing late-season run when it takes on Central Michigan in the 12th annual Motor City Bowl at Detroit’s Ford Field.
After opening the season 1-5 (3-3 ATS), Florida Atlantic went 5-1 over the last six weeks (3-2-1 ATS) to earn its second consecutive postseason bid. However, the Owls needed to work overtime to seal this bowl berth, beating Florida International 57-50 as a 5½-point favorite in the regular-season finale on Nov. 29. FAU scored 28 fourth-quarter points and got 389 passing yards and five TD passes from QB Rusty Smith in the victory.
Central Michigan ended its two-year reign atop the West Division of the Mid-American Conference, as Ball State took the division crown with a 31-24 win over the Chippewas on Nov. 19 as six-point favorites. The Chippewas then finished the season with a 56-52 loss at Eastern Michigan as a 10-point favorite and are now looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2004.
Florida Atlantic, which finished tied for second in the Sun Belt Conference, two games behind Troy, beat Memphis 44-27 in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, cashing as 3½-point favorites. With that win, Owls coach Howard Schnellenberger improved to 5-0 SU and ATS all-time in bowl games.
This is Central Michigan’s third straight trip to the Motor City Bowl, losing last year’s game 51-48 to Purdue but cashing in as a 7½-point underdog. Butch Jones’ squad is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) in this bowl game. Including two Motor City Bowls and two MAC Championship games, the Chippewas have played four times at Ford Field since the end of the 2006 season, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.
This figures to be a high-scoring affair, giving both teams’ explosive offenses and shaky defenses. Central Michigan averages 30.2 points and 427.1 total yards per game, but gives up 30.8 points and 424.2 yards per contest. Meanwhile, the Owls put up 25.2 points and 391.8 yards per game, but allow 29.3 points and 401.5 total yards per outing.
Florida Atlantic is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover and 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season, but the Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a straight-up win. The Chippewas are on a host of solid ATS streaks, including 29-11-5 overall, 17-6-3 as a favorite and 8-1-2 after a non-cover, but they’re just 1-3-1 ATS as a chalk this season (0-2-1 ATS as a road favorite).
The Owls are on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference games and 6-0 as an underdog. Conversely, the Chippewas are on “over” runs of 14-6 overall, 10-2 following a straight-up loss, 6-1 in non-conference games and 7-1 after a non-cover, but the under is 3-1 in their four games at Ford Field going back to 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN