Steve Merril
(3% play) OVER 63.5 (Eastern Michigan/Old Dominion) - 1:00 pm ET (ESPN) #221
Eastern Michigan was a much improved team this season, especially on the offensive side of the football. The Eagles averaged 30.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 31.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play. The Eagles were well-balanced as they ran for 158 yards and threw for 296 yards per game this year. Eastern Michigan will now be facing a poor Old Dominion defense that allowed 33.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play away from home. Against the five bowl teams they faced, the Monarchs gave up 39 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.
Old Dominion has an explosive offense that averaged 36 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play. The Monarchs were also a well-balanced offense as they ran for 199 yards and threw for 238 yards per game this season. Old Dominion’s offense will score at will on a terrible Eastern Michigan defense that got shredded all season long. The Eagles gave up 30.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged only 28.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. On the road, Eastern Michigan allowed 35.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play. Look for a high-scoring Bahamas Bowl between Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion on Friday afternoon.
Play OVER (Eastern Michigan/Old Dominion) as a 3% play.
-------------------
(3% play) OVER 67.5 (Louisiana Tech/Navy) - 4:30 pm ET (ESPN) #223
Louisiana Tech and Navy are all offense and no defense, so we expect a high-scoring shootout on Friday afternoon. Louisiana Tech has a potent offense that averaged 44.0 points per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allowed just 33.8 ppg and 6.1 yppl). The Bulldogs were well-balanced as they ran for 156 yards and threw for 360 yards per game this year. Louisiana Tech will now be facing a poor Navy defense that allowed 29.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play this season. Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Navy allowed 35 points on 470 yards of offense while giving up 6.6 yards per play.
Navy’s offense averaged 37.4 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus defenses that gave up only 29.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Navy is a running team that averaged 311 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush this season (versus opponents that allowed just 4.6 ypr). Louisiana Tech’s defense played below average football as the Bulldogs gave up 32.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. Against the seven bowl teams they faced this season, Louisiana Tech allowed 38 points on 431 yards of offense per game. In all road games this season, the Bulldogs permitted 36.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play. Navy did lose their starting quarterback prior to their last game against Army, but with extra time to prepare, we expect minimal drop off in this game. Look for a high-scoring Armed Forces Bowl between Louisiana Tech and Navy on Friday afternoon.
Play OVER (Louisiana Tech/Navy) as a 3% play.