Service Plays Friday 12/04/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc 12/4-12/5

5 Unit Play. #8 Take Central Michigan -13 over Ohio U (Friday 8 pm ESPN 2) QB LeFevour shines and so do the Chips, as they win this game going away and likely will return to Detroit for the Pizza Pizza Bowl. CMU 42, Ohio U 17.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Double Dragon

Central Michigan -13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4

Game 307-308: Ohio at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 77.749; Central Michigan 95.375
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 17 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 13; 53
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-13); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL WRITE-UP

Week 13 NFL games

Sunday, December 6

Broncos (7-4) @ Chiefs (3-8)-- McDaniels coached Cassel to 11-5 record last year with Patriots; he should know him well. Denver snapped a 4-game skid beating Giants last week, they're 1-4 when they allow 20+ points. 6-0 when they allow less. Chiefs scored 16 or less points in seven of last ten games. KC upset Steelers in last home game, but it was their first win in five home tries. In five of seven Denver wins, they held opponent to 10 or less points. In last two tilts, Chiefs allowed 8.5/11.4 ypp. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Chief games; nine of eleven Denver games stayed under. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC West games. Broncos were favored in only three of first 11 games.

Raiders (3-8) @ Steelers (6-5)-- Pitt lost last three games, last two in OT, so they need wins to get in playoff hunt; Roethlisberger expected to be back in starting lineup, but Dixon played OK in first start last week. Steelers are 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home favorite, with wins by 3-4-13-10 points. Raiders are 1-4 in last five games, are 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 23-37-8-17 points. Oakland averaged under six yards/pass attempt in nine of last ten games. Pitt has 27 sacks in last seven games. AFC West road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread in non-division games; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 7-3 in last ten Raider games, 4-1 in last five Steeler tilts.

Texans (5-6) @ Jaguars (6-5)-- Houston lost last three games to Colts/Titans, missing tying FGs twice, blowing 17-0 lead in third game; Texans lost 31-24 at home to Jaguars in Week 3 (-3.5), fumbling on goal line when trying to score a tying TD. Jaguars scored 17 or less points in al five losses; eight of Houston's 11 opponent scored 20+. Texans are 3-2 on road, losing 28-21 at Arizona (did tie game after being down 21-0 at half), 20-17 at Indy. Jax is 4-1 at home, with last three home wins all by three points. Houston has 30 penalties for 304 yds in their last three games. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Houston games. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in AFC South games.

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (11-0)-- Streaking Titans are 5-0 with Young starting at QB; they lost 31-9 at home to Colts in Week 5 (+4), averaging just 4.3 ypp, never getting inside Indy red zone. Colts outgained them 367-245. The key to beating Colts is maintaining ball, keeping Manning off field; in last six games, Tennessee has run ball for average of 200.2 ypg, with Johnson only third RB ever with six straight games of 125+ yards- Titans converted on 23 of last 46 third down plays, as Young's legs keep chains moving. Colts are 1-4 as home fave, with wins by 2-17-4-1-3 points. Titans held last three opponents to 73.7 rushing yards/game; they're 3-3 vs spread as underdog.

Eagles (7-4) @ Falcons (6-5)-- Michael Vick returns to Georgia Dome with an Eagle squad that is 3-2 on road (wins by 28-10-4, but loss at Oakland), 5-3 as a favorite 3-1 on road. Ryan is out for Atlanta; backup Redman led Falcons to win last week, but that game was only second time this year Atlanta got just one offensive TD in a game. Falcons ran ball for just 90-75 yards in last two games, after averaging 173 in three gsmes before that. Philly lost the turnover battle in three of four losses; they're 6-1 when they're even or positive in TO ratio. Over is 8-3 in Philly games. NFC East road favorites are 5-6 vs spread out of division. NFC South underdogs are 6-10, 1-4 at home.

Lions (2-9) @ Bengals (8-3)-- Hard to lay double digits with Bengals, since in last seven games, they've topped 18 points once; Cincy is 0-5 as favorite this year, winning home games by 3-35-10-9 points. Bengals ran ball for 177-210 yards in last two games, but in last three, they scored one FG on nine drives that started 80+ yards from goal line- they have just two offensive TDs on last 29 drives, but addition of RB Johnson should help. Lions are 0-4-1 as road dog this year, losing away games by 18-24-26-12-17 points, allowing 18 TDs on 45 drives in road games. AFC North home favorites are 5-3 vs spread. NFC North road dogs are 0-6 vs spread in non-division games.

Saints (11-0) @ Redskins (3-8)-- Tough spot for Saints, travelling on a short week after emotional win over Patriots; defensive coordinator Willaims once worked for Redskins, doubt his defense takes this game for granted. Redskins' QB Campbell got knocked silly on the last play last week; not sure if he had concussion. Redskins lost six of last seven games, losing brutal games to Dallas (7-6), Eagles (27-24) the last two weeks- they're 5-2 against spread as dog this year. Saints scored 28+ points in each of their last seven games. Four of last five Washington games went over the total. NFC South favorites are 4-0 vs spread in non-division games. NFC East home underdogs are 0-4.

Buccaneers (1-10) @ Panthers (4-7)-- Tampa scored TDs on defense, special teams in first meeting, still lost 28-21 at home to Carolina in Week 6 (+3.5), as Panthers had 267 rushing yards, outgained Bucs 322-245, despite averaging a mere 3.8 ypp. Delhomme has bum finger, could sit for Feeley here; he threw four INTs in 17-6 loss at Swamp last week. Bucs lost to Atlanta's backup QB last week; they're 3-1 vs spread since their bye, are 3-2 as road dogs, but also allowed 29.6 ppg in last seven games (24 TDs on 84 drives). Six of Carolina's last nine games stayed under total. Road team is 5-2 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Panthers are 1-3 against spread as a favorite this year.

Rams (1-10) @ Bears (4-7)-- St Louis was down three offensive linemen at end of bitter home loss to Seattle (previously winless on road) last week, so hard to back them here, especially since backup QB Boller is mistake-prone in key spots, even though he has better skills than injured starter Bulger. Rams' last two road games were both decided by FG, after they scored total of seven points in losing first three road efforts, by combined score of 72-7. Chicago is 1-6 since its bye, losing last four games by combined score of 111-57- they're 3-1 vs spread as favorite this year, but lost last two home games after winning first three by 3-24-24 points. NFC West road underdogs are 9-4 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 13

Trend Report

Sunday, December 6

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CINCINNATI
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. WASHINGTON
New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Washington is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHICAGO
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CLEVELAND
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
NY Giants are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Dallas

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Seattle is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games

8:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ARIZONA
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Arizona is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 13

Sunday, 12/6/2009

DENVER at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
KANSAS CITY: 8-1 Over as home underdog

OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 19-40 ATS in December
PITTSBURGH: 14-9 ATS off road division loss

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 27-12 ATS off BB losses
JACKSONVILLE: 2-11 ATS in home games

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 9-0 ATS off 4+ SU wins
INDIANAPOLIS: 8-2 Under at home vs. Tennessee

PHILADELPHIA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 12-4 ATS off division game
ATLANTA: 27-47 ATS off home win

DETROIT at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 6-0 Over vs. non-conference
CINCINNATI: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference

NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 22-8 Over vs. conference
WASHINGTON: 7-13 ATS off SU loss

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 0-6 ATS off BB Unders
CAROLINA: 10-2 ATS after scoring 6 points or less

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 6-15 ATS off DD loss
CHICAGO: 7-0 ATS off division loss

SAN DIEGO at CLEVELAND, 4:05 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 26-4 ATS off 4+ ATS wins
CLEVELAND: 7-1 Under in December

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 3-0 ATS in road games
SEATTLE: 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season

(TC) MINNESOTA at ARIZONA, 8:25 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 6-1 ATS vs. conference
ARIZONA: 13-4 Over off an Under

DALLAS at NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 6-0 Over after gaining 450+ total yards
NY GIANTS: 0-6 ATS vs. teams with winning record

(TC) NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: n/a
MIAMI: 12-1 Over off road loss

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 13

Sunday, December 6

DENVER (7 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 8) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (5 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 0) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (7 - 4) at ATLANTA (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 9) at CINCINNATI (8 - 3) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (11 - 0) at WASHINGTON (3 - 8) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 10) at CAROLINA (4 - 7) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (4 - 7) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 103-136 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-136 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 75-106 ATS (-41.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (8 - 3) at CLEVELAND (1 - 10) - 12/6/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) at SEATTLE (4 - 7) - 12/6/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
SEATTLE is 45-71 ATS (-33.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 1) at ARIZONA (7 - 4) - 12/6/2009, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (8 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY GIANTS are 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 4) at MIAMI (5 - 6) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (-4, 215)

Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo fired Sam Mitchell, the 2007 Coach of the Year, after a 39-point loss to the Denver Nuggets last December. Colangelo hoped new coach Jay Triano could solve the Raptors’ defensive issues and would make a calmer presence on the bench.

Wednesday’s 146-115 loss to the Atlanta Hawks proves the Raptors aren’t cutting it defensively, and that calmness that Colangelo liked in Triano is being criticized by his players.

“Every time something happens it’s always, ‘It’s okay, it’s all right.’ It’s not all right,” backup point guard Jarrett Jack told the Toronto Star. “Problems go by without attacking them or challenging them or bringing them to the forefront and getting them solved.

“We can’t keep putting them to the back of the bus and just saying, ‘That’s okay.’ It’s not all right. Everybody can’t walk on eggshells around here and say, ‘We’re playing good basketball.’ We’re not.”

All-Star Chris Bosh was just as frank after the game.

"The defensive effort hasn't been there for a while. We didn't magically appear last on the charts defensively," Bosh told reporters. "I mean, tonight was just a total embarrassment. We couldn't stop anybody. We haven't stopped anybody all year."

Pick: Over


Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz (-10, 210.5)

Carlos Boozer is making his agent a very happy man these days. The former Blue Devil is playing the best basketball of his career at the right time.

Last season Boozer all but assured Jazz management that he would use his player option to enter free agency in the summer of 2009. But an injury hurt Boozer’s production and at the last minute he decided to stay put in Utah.

Fans in Salt Lake City weren’t too pleased. The club had already sunk a good part of the team’s cap space into younger power forward Paul Millsap. But Boozer’s performance this season is making him look like one of the best bargains in the Association.

He’s averaging 23.9 points, 11.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists over the last nine games. It’s no shock the Jazz have gone 7-2 straight up and against the spread over the same period.

“I’m very confident in my game,” Boozer told the Deseret News. “I don’t want to blow it out of proportion, but I’m having fun. I’m just playing off my teammates.”

Expect Boozer to beat up the Pacers in the paint Friday night.

Pick: Jazz

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens

If you’re a Bruins fan, chances are your hair has turned three shades of grey in the past two weeks.

Boston has had a recent flair for the dramatic, going to overtime or shootout in seven of its last 10 games. The Bruins were 4-3 in those games and come into Friday’s tilt with the Habs off a less-hectic matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which they won 4-1.

However, with Montreal up next on the schedule, Boston backers could be in for another nail biter.

The last time these Original Six rivals met, the Canadiens edged the Bruins 2-1 in a shootout on November 5. Friday is also the 100th anniversary celebration for the Habs, and the B’s know their opponents will come out with fire in their skates.

"Now we go up to Montreal, it's a big night for them, we've got to make sure we quiet everything down,” said veteran forward and former Canadien Mark Recchi. “We're going to have to weather the storm if not push back right away and hopefully get a big win there."

Boston needed a third-period goal to force the extra frames in November, but had its nine-game winning streak against Montreal snapped. The way the Habs are hobbling along, the Bruins could start another streak Friday night – be it in regulation or extra time.

Pick: Boston


Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild

Anaheim has been a lame duck on the road this season, picking up just two wins outside of the Honda Center.

The Ducks are just 2-4-1-2 on the road and now hit the bricks for back-to-back games, starting in Dallas Thursday and wrapping in Minnesota Friday night. Anaheim is scoring just 2.4 goals per road game while allowing host teams to net more than three goals a night.

"We can't lose sight of the fact that our team has played better over the last while," Ducks head coach Randy Carlyle told the team website. "We're going to have to ramp it up and get back to playing a stronger defensive game and executing to a higher level.”

The Ducks are coming off back-to-back, one-goal losses at home to Phoenix and Los Angeles and now face a Minnesota squad picking up steam after winning three straight contests. The Wild have one of the best home records in hockey, going 8-3-0-1 inside the Xcel Energy Center.

Pick: Minnesota

 

[Born2Booze]

DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
12/4/09- Friday NBA Bonus Play

Dallas Mavs -5

 

[Born2Booze]

DESTROY THE BOOK SPORTS
12/4/09- Friday Early NCAA Release

7- Mich St -19

 

[LLXC13]

YourProLocks

NCAA:
FRIDAY-
15 Dime: Central Mich (-13)

 

[LLXC13]

Jim Feist

25-Star NBA Situational Slam Dunk Game of the Year - Friday!

Take: (514) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk Game of the Year: Hornets.

New Orleans is a weak road team, but oh, are the Hornets tough at home (6-2) and a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four home games. They have a full two days off before this one, coming home after a West Coast run. Emeka Okafor has been a force in the middle along with former All-Star David West up front, while forward Peja Stojakovic is back this game. All-Star guard Chris Paul is back at practice and could see some time, too. Minnesota (2-16) is a young team with all kinds of injury problems. Point guard Mike Conley (shoulder strain) is back but not 100%, while Timberwolves forward Kevin Love could make his season debut this weekend recovering from a fractured left hand. Young basketball teams often struggle on the road, and even the coach admits that: "Once again our youth and inexperienced was exposed," Wolves coach Kurt Rambis said after the last game. Minnesota is 3-10 ATS its last 13 games, and 3-6 ATS its last 9 at New Orleans. New Orleans is 2-0 SU/ATS its last two games as a favorite and on a strong 6-1 ATS the last 7 games, plus getting much healthier. The Hornets are 8-4 ATS the last 12 games as chalk of 11 or more points. A great spot for the fired up home team as the fans get to welcome back Paul. Play the Hornets.

 

[LLXC13]

Joey Torelli

4* Utah Jazz -9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
362 - 253 run 59 %

Bonus Play FRI Boston Celtics - 3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Oregon (-10, college football) and Texas (-19-1/2, college basketball) Thursday night.

Today it's Niagara. The surplus is 575 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Ohio (9-3, 7-4 ATS) vs. Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS)
(at Detroit)
Central Michigan is gunning for its third Mid-American Conference title in the last four years when it takes on Ohio at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Chippewas closed the regular season on a 3-0 SU and ATS run – all as a double-digit favorite – including Saturday’s 45-31 rout of Northern Illinois, barely cashing as a 13-point chalk. Central Michigan, winners of the MAC West Division, posted the first-ever undefeated and untied conference record in school history, and its only losses this season were at Boston College and at Arizona, both schools from BCS conferences.
Ohio claimed the East Division crown last weekend with a 35-17 win over Temple, cashing as a two-point home ‘dog. The Bobcats, who piled up 494 yards against the Owls, rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS) down the stretch to secure the division title, with the offense averaging 30 ppg.
This is a rematch of the 2006 MAC title game, with the Chippewas routing Ohio 31-10 as 3½-point favorites, as QB Dan LeFevour – then a freshman – threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Last year, Central Michigan went to Athens, Ohio, to face the Bobcats and took a 31-28 victory as 2½-point road chalk with LeFevour again lighting them up for 361 passing yards and 45 rushing yards and a score. LeFevour will be playing in his third MAC title game tonight.
The Chips have won and covered three straight meetings in this rivalry, and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last five meetings and seven of the last eight.
Central Michigan’s offense puts up 34.2 points and 419.9 total yards per game, with LeFevour leading the attack. This season, the fourth-year senior has completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 2,787 yards with 25 TDs and just five INTs. LeFevour, who is currently tied for the most career touchdown passes in Division I-A history at 146, also has rushed for a team-high 652 yards and 14 additional scores this season.
Defensively, the Chippewas allow just 17.8 points per game and 331 yards per contest. No opponent has scored more than 31 points against Central Michigan, which held eight of 12 foes to 23 points or less.
The Bobcats’ offense put up 73 points the last two weeks against Temple and Northern Illinois, with QB Theo Scott tossing five TD passes and no INTs. Scott had 324 yards passing and three TDs last week against Temple and rushed for another 69 yards and two scores. Scott tweaked an ankle against the Owls but is expected to play today. On defense, the Bobcats allow just 21.4 points and 352 total yards per game, but 153 rushing yards per contest.
Ohio is on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 8-2 in MAC games, 6-0 on Fridays, 4-0 as an underdog and 7-2 against teams with a winning record. Central Michigan is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last four Friday games, but otherwise it is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 39-15-3 overall, 25-7-2 in MAC contests, 25-8-2 as a favorite (6-2 when laying points this year), 23-9-2 after a spread-cover and 11-5 against teams with winning records.
The Bobcats are on “over” streaks of 4-0 as an underdog and 4-0 against teams with winning records, while the Chippewas are on “over” runs of 8-2-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in Friday contests. However, Central Michigan has stayed below the posted number in six of seven after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN


NBA

Boston (15-4, 9-10 ATS) at Oklahoma City (10-8, 11-7 ATS)
The Celtics wrap up a four-game road trip in Oklahoma City looking for their seventh straight win.
Boston got a hard-fought 90-83 victory in San Antonio on Thursday, cashing as a one-point underdog, making it a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) on the current road trip. The Celtics have now rattled off four straight spread-covers on the heels of six-game ATS slide. Kevin Garnett had 20 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 12 points and 12 assists to lead the Celtics over the Spurs.
Oklahoma City crushed the Sixers on Wednesday, winning 117-106 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Thunder have won three of their last four (SU and ATS) and at home this season they are averaging 101.3 points a game while allowing just 94.7, going 6-3 ATS as a host (3-1 ATS last four).
Boston has won five straight in this series (4-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 (both SU and ATS) dating back to 2004. Last season the Celtics went to Oklahoma and scored a 96-83 win as a 9½-point road favorite and also crushed the Thunder 103-84 in their matchup in Beantown as 11-point favorites. The host is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five series clashes.
The Celtics are still just 5-9 ATS in their last 13 overall and 2-4 ATS in their last six against Western Conference teams, but they are also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is on positive ATS trends that include 20-8-1 against Eastern Conference squads. 5-2 at home, 18-6 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 on Friday and 6-2 against Atlantic Division teams.
Boston has topped the total in four of six overall, four of five as a favorite and seven of nine on Friday, but the Celtics are on “under” runs of 11-2-1 against Northwest Division teams, 18-8 when they play the second night of a back-to-back and 6-2 against the Western Conference. The Thunder have gone over the posted total in eight of 10 overall, four of five at home and five straight against the Eastern Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 10-3 as home ‘dogs and 6-2 against Atlantic Division squads. Finally, the “under” has been the play in six of eight meetings between these two in Oklahoma City.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY


Miami (10-8, 8-10 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (14-3, 8-9 ATS)
The surging Lakers will try to make it eight straight wins when they welcome the Heat to the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Miami is on a four-game West Coast road trip, having split the first two, beating Portland 107-100 as a 6½-point ‘dog on Tuesday and then losing 114-96 in Denver on Thursday, failing as a nine-point road pup. The Heat have lost six of their last nine overall and have really struggled at the betting window, failing to cash in nine of their last 11.
Los Angeles has won seven in a row overall (5-2 ATS), scoring in triple digits in each of the seven wins while keeping the opposition in double-digits in each game. The Lakers beat up the Hornets 110-99 on Tuesday but came up short as a 15-point home favorite. Over its last five games, L.A. is averaging 109.4 points and shooting 48.4 percent from the floor, while allowing just 91.6 ppg.
The home team has won eight of the last nine (5-4 ATS) in this rivalry, including both matchups last year when the Lakers got a 108-105 win at home, but came up way short as 11-point favorites, then lost 89-87 in Miami as an eight-point chalk. The underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run when these two get together, but despite getting the money in L.A. last year, the Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Hollywood.
The Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Pacific Division teams. Meanwhile, the Lakers are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 7-3 at home, 8-3 as a favorite, 6-2 against Eastern Conference teams, 10-4 after getting two days off and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Miami is on several “over” streaks, including 6-3 overall, 11-5 when they play the second night of a back-to-back, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 against Pacific Division teams. Los Angeles has topped the total in nine of 14 as a favorite and three of five against Eastern Conference teams, but the Lakers are also on “under” runs of 13-6-1 at home, 20-8 when playing on two days of rest, 7-2 against Southeast Division teams and 5-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in seven of the last nine overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA WRITE-UP

Friday, December 4

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won four of last five games, with three wins by 4 or less pts.
-- Celtics won their last six games, covered last four. Oklahoma City won three of its last four games.
-- Cavaliers won nine of their last ten games.
-- Mavericks won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Hornets won their last four home games (3-1 vs spread).
-- Bobcats won three of their last four games.
-- Jazz won three in row, six of last seven games.
-- Lakers won their last seven games (5-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Raptors lost five in row, eight of last ten games.
-- Hawks lost three of last four games, covered one of five. Knicks lost six of their last seven games.
-- Bulls lost five of their last six games.
-- Memphis covered two of last seven games as an underdog.
-- Pistons lost eight of their last nine games. Bucks lost five of last six.
-- Nets are 0-18 SU, 2-6 vs spread in last eight games.
-- Pacers lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Miami lost six of last nine games, covered two of last eleven.

Totals
-- Four of last five Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total; over is 3-1-1 in Knicks' last four contests.
-- Eight of last ten Thunder games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Chicago games.
-- Last five Maverick games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Detroit home games went over the total; over is 6-0-1 in Milwaukee's last seven games.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Minnesota games.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Utah games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Laker games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB WRITE-UP

Friday, December 4

Information on Friday's college hoop games........

Kent State is 4-2 with win over UAB; they lost by 22 at South Florida. Golden Flashes lost three starters from LY's 19-15 team. Xavier is 4-2 after losing twice at Disney; they lost three starters and its coach from 27-9 team. A-14 home favorites are 12-5 against the spread this season.

Texas A&M is 6-1 after 2-1 trip to Anaheim losing by 7 to WVa, one of country's best teams; Aggies have three starters back from 24-10 team. Big 12 home favorites are 11-5 vs spread. Akron won its last four games after 0-2 start; they outscored Niagara 57-37 in second half last game, as they came from behind to win 80-68. MAC road underdogs are 7-12.

Auburn is 3-3 with no real good wins; they've got two starters back from 24-12 team (10-6 in SEC). SEC home favorites are 18-12 against spread. Troy has four starters back from 19-13 team (14-4 in Sun Belt); they are 1-3 vs D-I teams, losing by 22 at Florida (+16), 18 at UAB (+8.5).

Pac-10 teams are already 0-4 in Pac-10/Big 12 Challenge; they're 16-25 vs spread in non-conference games this fall. Oregon State is 2-3 so far, losing only home game to 21-point dog Sacramento State. Colorado lost twice in Maui, both by four points, to Gonzaga/Arizona; they're better than they've been the last few years. Big 12 road underdogs are 8-4.

San Diego lost its last two games, losing in OT to Aztecs after tank job in Alaskan finals; they're 3-3, losing only road game by point at Pacific. WCC road favorites are 2-4 vs spread. Riverside is 3-2, with road losses at New Mexico/USC. Big West underdogs are 15-9, 2-1 at home.

Wofford lost its SoCon opener 67-62 at Western Carolina two nites ago, now visit Michigan State team coming off 89-82 loss at Chapel Hill three nights ago. Wofford lost by 3 at Pitt, 14 at Illinois, won by 3 at Georgia. SoCon road dogs are 11-16 vs spread. Big 11 home favorites are 11-5.

Niagara has four starters back from 26-9 team, but they've collapsed in second half in two of last three games; they beat Manhattan twice LY, both times by 19 points. Manhattan is 4-2 with no solid wins- their win over Fordham got Dereck Whittenberg fired yesterday. Jaspers have three starters back from 16-14 team.

Iona is 4-2 after tough losses to Florida State, Baylor at Disney, but win over Creighton was big; Gaels lost to St Peter's twice LY, by 3-9 points. Peacocks are 2-3, allowing 34-56 points in its wins, an average of 66 ppg in its losses. St Peter's returns three starters from LY, Iona has four.

Loyola MD has all five starters back from LY; they lost two of three to Canisius LY, getting upset 74-68 (-1.5) in MAAC tourney. Greyhounds are 4-2 this year, with Morgan State best win. Canisius is 3-2 after loss (75-58) at Eastern Michigan last game. Griffs also have 5 starters back.

'Northern Colorado is 7-0 with wins at Hawai'i, Air Force; they've got three starters back from 14-19 team (8-8 in Big Sky). Bears won twice against Montana State LY, by 10-27 points. Bobcats are 1-3 against D-I teams, winning 70-66 at San Francisco, losing by 14-4-23 to Nevada, Southern Miss and Oregon.

Montana is 4-2 after 63-59 loss at ranked Washington Sunday; Grizzlies won by 13 at Oregon- they've got three starters back from 17-12 team (11-5 in Big Sky). Northern Arizona is 1-4 vs D-I teams after losing by 41 at San Diego State Saturday. Montana beat NAU twice LY (1-19).