Malinsky
5* under199 Lakers
5* Char-3.5
4* u190 Oklahoma City
4* #505 BOSTON/OKLAHOMA CITY Under
Doc Rivers thought that the Celtics got sloppy in home wins over New York and Toronto that preceded this road trip, allowing over 100 points each team, and it led to a ratcheting up of the intensity, plus an added focus on getting back to half-court basketball, and not letting sloppy habits developed. The results have been impressive. It has been back to championship basketball again in holding Miami to 85, Charlotte to 90 and San Antonio to 83, and you can even put an * next to the allowance vs. the Bobcats – the Celtics coasted home after leading 62-39 at halftime. Now in the fourth road game in six days there will be an even greater emphasis on slowing the tempo and grinding away, and that makes this Total ideal for our purposes because that is what we are going to see from the underdog as well.While Kevin Durant gets the ink and brings the offensive electricity, the key to the development of the Thunder has been getting defensive-minded players at the other positions. In time, the Russell Westbrook/Thabo Sefolosha back-court could grow into one of the best defensive tandems in the league. And they are not just a “work in progress”, rating #7 in the NBA on our best defensive ratings through 18 games.With two outstanding defenses, and both teams in the bottom tier in terms of Pace (Oklahoma City is 19th, Boston in 26th), we do not have the flow that this line is calling for, and that leads to an easy Under ticket.
5* #515 CHARLOTTE over NEW JERSEY
The New Jersey Nets will win a game soon, catching an opponent that comes in flat and unprepared, and also one that plays soft enough defense for them to escape in a rag-tag schoolyard game. This is not that setting, and the line value being offered gives us a chance to step this one up.Instead of taking the Nets lightly, the Bobcats will bring as focused of a game plan as this lowly class of team is likely to go up against. They come in with two full days to prepare off of Tuesday’s humbling 108-90 loss to the Celtics, a defeat which came right after they had put four straight solid wins together. And that has Larry Brown cracking the whip for this setting - <i>"I was so angry; we didn't compete a lick. I can't remember a game coaching this team when I felt more disappointed."There were some extenuating circumstances – one day after he was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week, Gerald Wallace had his worst game of the season, having to sit down before the 6:00 minute mark of the first quarter with his second foul, and he finished with only five points in 28 minutes, both lows for the campaign. But that also helps to bring a chip on his shoulder, which is the last thing that the sorry nets need to run into.Charlotte rates #3 in the NBA on our best set of defensive ratings, and at #28 on the Pace charts sets a methodical half-court floor that brings that defense fully into play on a high percentage of possessions. That is a huge headache for a New Jersey offense that rates dead last on our best charts, averaging 2.6 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team. They are last in the league in Points, FG Percentage and Assists, and do not have the polish needed to compete to win the game vs. this defense.
5* #520 L.A. LAKERS/MIAMI Under
Now that Pau Gasol is fully back into the playing rotation, the Lakers are playing some of the best defense in the NBA. Their 42.3 percent FG allowances tops the league, and they are #2 overall on our best set of ratings. But because they have had some explosive offensive showings against weak teams in their most recent stretch, this defense is not being valued properly by the marketplace in terms of setting this line. Now the Lakers step in against a team that brings a winning record and some defensive pride, and one that will also be going out of their way to slow the tempo tonight, which sets this one up well.By the end of the season the Los Angeles defense may end up #1 on our charts, a combination of having those twin towers of Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the paint, and Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest locking up opponents on the perimeter. They can truly be special on that end of the court. Where they will be at their best is locking up a team that relies too much on a particular scorer, in this case Dwayne Wade, and the Heat do not have many ways to pick up the slack when Wade can not get untracked. It is a particular challenge tonight because of the tired legs that come from playing at the Denver altitude on Thursday night, especially with the late starting time for television not helping them in terms of the transition. But dealing with that fatigue can be a natural part of Erik Spoelstra’s usual game plan anyway – the Heat are 27th in the league in Pace, and if ever there was a time to grind it out even slower it is tonight, not only off of Denver on Thursday, but also having played at Portland on Tuesday.Spoelstra has been able to handle the tempo two different ways – first by running the shot clock late and having Wade go one-on-one, which does not create the usual efficiency tonight because of Bryant and Artest; second by utilizing a lot of zone looks to change the flow defensively. The latter can be an effective tool tonight, especially against the brick-laying Laker reserves.