TheSwami
Good evening everyone. Hope your special lady liked the roses/flowers last week.
Here is what I have for you tonight....next update sometime late Saturday evening if not sooner.
DW
BASKETBALL: NBA
Alleghenies Analysis:
Friday Night action: reg 3-stars on New Orleans, Sac (under) and Denver (over).
MORE HOCKEY FOR YOU FROM PLAYERS ADVANTAGE.....
Their plays are available nightly for just $ 30 a night from The Handicapper's Report Card office.
2* (Top Play) Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Toronto @ 7:35 PM ET – Many will
be looking for Toronto to bounce back here as the Raptors just
suffered their first loss of the season. Also, many will be looking
for the Hawks to come up short as they’re coming off of a big upset
win at New Orleans. However, there are a number of key factors as to
why this won’t happen. Note that even though the Raptors loss came at
the hands of the “mighty” Pistons, the Raptors really should not have
lost that game. Toronto was at home and the Pistons had traded away
Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess for Allen Iverson of the
Nuggets. Iverson couldn’t play for Detroit because Billups still had
to clear his physical with Denver. The point is that the Pistons were
without a key guard in Wednesday’s game at Toronto and yet they still
beat the Raptors on the road! Also, Toronto’s first three wins have
come against Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Golden State. The Sixers
are struggling at 2-4, the Bucks went 26-56 last season and are not
very improved this season, and the Warriors are dealing with issues
both on the floor and in upper management. For the first time this
season, Toronto will be dealing with a winning team that appears
complete and also the Raptors are on the road for this
one!
Atlanta is laying a very small number at home here and,
considering how well they’re playing to start the season, we feel
very confident in a comfortable cover here! Keep in mind the Hawks
3-0 start includes road wins at Orlando and at New Orleans. Both of
these teams won their respective division last season and it shows
just how far the Hawks have come. The fact that the Raptors have
given the Hawks some trouble in the past insures that Atlanta will
not overlook them here and that Atlanta will not get caught still
celebrating their big win over New Orleans. The Hawks remember going
just 1-2 against Toronto last season with that one win in OT but,
take a look at that OT win for clues to this one. While Atlanta’s
team, that played in that game, returns all key players, the Raptors
are without TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and Carlos Delfino. Ford had
23 points and 13 assists in that game, Nesterovic had 21 points, and
Delfino had 11 rebounds. That is a lot of key production now missing
in this ‘rematch’. The Raptors do have a key player they picked up in
the off-season but that key player, Jermaine O’Neal, is definitely
not yet comfortable with his new team. You can see that in his
numbers and in the way he’s been playing on the floor. Facing a
cohesive unit like the Hawks, with point guard Mike Bibby leading the
way plus valuable bench minutes coming from others, Toronto will be
exposed for their current “hole” in the middle as O’Neal is still not
up to speed. The Hawks gelled during their playoff series against the
Celtics when they put quite a scare into Boston and the betting
markets just aren’t in tune to the Hawks (stock up) and Raptors
(stock down) this season. Grab the value. Play Atlanta minus the
points as a Top Play selection.
1* (regular play) Miami Heat (+) @ San Antonio @ 8:05 PM ET – In most
previews looking at this game you will read all about Miami’s
historic struggles in past visits to San Antonio. Here, in our
breakdown of this game, you’re going to read about how that doesn’t
matter when you’re dealing with two teams going in different
directions right now. Yes, the Spurs finally got their first win of
the season on Wednesday but it took double-overtime and 55 points
from Tony Parker to get that win! That’s how bad things now are for
San Antonio. They are still without Manu Ginobili, they still are not
playing defense like they use to, and starting center Fabricio Oberto
is still not himself after missing time early this season with an
irregular heartbeat. This is simply not the Spurs of old and yet the
betting markets can’t shake that from their heads. How else do you
explain San Antonio, despite all their problems, still being favored
by a half dozen points against a Miami Heat team that is playing
better basketball than they are right now? The only game the Spurs
have been involved in this season that was decided by more than four
points was an ugly 17 point home loss to Dallas and, if the Spurs
aren’t careful, they could be in for another rough evening at home
tonight.
Miami has responded very well to new coach Erik
Spoelstra and their defense is showing signs of big-time rejuvenation
this season. The Heat had 18 steals against Philadelphia on Wednesday
as Mario Chalmers is doing a fantastic job at the point for Miami.
Sure, he’ll have his hands full with Tony Parker on Friday night but
Parker needs help. He and Tim Duncan are shouldering the load right
now for San Antonio because of Ginobili being out. Roger Mason scored
26 points off the bench on Wednesday but he can’t be expected to do
that on a regular basis. He’s shot the ball very well this season but
was averaging just 12 points per game before his explosion at
Minnesota. Therein lies the other key in that the Timberwolves are
not a very good basketball team. In other words, the Spurs first win
of the season does not leave us impressed with San Antonio and
they’ll be dealing with a surging Miami team tonight. The Heat are
eager to put last season’s frustrations behind them and they’ve got,
in addition to Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem,
and Shawn Marion all playing at a high level right now. The Heat
don’t have a lot of height inside but they do have some bulk and the
Spurs aren’t rebounding the ball well this season either. That means
that Miami’s only real weakness is not something the Spurs can take
advantage of. The Heat are hungry in this situation and want to make
a statement at San Antonio. As for the Spurs, we foresee a bit of an
emotional letdown after finally getting that first win of the season.
We, and the Heat, step in and take advantage as the Spurs are still
not in a good flow on both ends of the court. Play Miami plus the
points as a regular selection.
<!-- / message -->