Indian Cowboy 11/12 - 11/15
I won't be playing his picks, been very cold lately, but here you go:
8 Unit Play. #228. NFL Game of the Year. Take the Carolina Panthers +1 over the Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 1pm est). Well, this game has everything we are looking for. For starters, I was on the Panthers last week when they covered the spread against the New Orleans Saints. Heck, they nearly won that game Outright. Yes, they lost by double-digits but they easily covered the spread and this team once again was winning outright at half. These two teams have met earlier this year. And, the Falcons defeated Carolina by a score of 20-28. It was interesting when that line was originally set back on 9/20/09 as Atlanta was favored by six points and they barely covered winning by eight. Now, that over 75% of the public is on the Falcons on the road here, Carolina is placed as +1 dog. In fact, the line opened up at Carolina as a +2.5 dog and it has slowly come down despite 75% of the public riding the Falcons. Let me phrase it another way. With over three-fourths of the public on the visiting Falcons, the line has gone 1.5 points the other way for the Panthers who are at home and only 25% of the public is on them. That's a lot of smart money folks. The Panthers have revenge. The Panthers are at home. The Panthers are playing better. This is a division game and a must win game for Carolina. Note, the Panthers come off a loss and the Falcons come off a nice win at Carolina. Carolina will absolutely be rocking for this game as the Panthers are playing much better defeating the likes of Arizona on the road outright as a double-digit dog - heck, they won that game by double-digits as they covered that game by a ridiculous 23 points. Now, I am a Falcons fan. But, I am more interesting in making my clients money. I have not lost an NFL Game of the Year in my life and I don't plan on losing it today. Let's roll with the Panthers who are playing much better right now as they face my Falcons at home. The Falcons are just 1-3 on the road although they are a highly talented team, as I believe this is just a bad spot for them. Remember, all we need is Carolina to win here as even a field goal gets the job done for us. Panthers have covered back to back games and the last three of four, they likely cover three straight and four of five after this contest.
4 Unit Play. #111. Take Under 45 between South Florida @ Rutgers (Thursday @ 7:45pm est). The total has steadily come down on this game. I believe this game favors Rutgers for several reasons. For starters, Rutgers has quietly won six of seven since their opening loss to Cincy. That loss was probably one of the best losses for this team as it placed a chip on their shoulder and they have been playing much better. Heck, this team went to Connecticut and won outright as a 7.5 dog. Now, I'm not saying they beat South Florida today, but I am willing to say their defense will make a stand at home. Rutgers has given up just 46 points in their last three ballgames at home and nearly half of those came to a very good Pittsburgh team. South Florida has not been impressive on the road this year outside the Florida State game so I don’t trust them to put a load of points on the board. Even the FSU game they played, the total points scored in that game was 24. South Florida has revenge from last year as well and I think that combined with the fact that Rutgers defense is playing well, this game is likely to go under the posted total. The Under is 7-2 in the Bulls last Nine games as an Underdog and the Under is 4-0 in the Scarlet Knight's last four home games.
4 Unit Play. #186. Take Mississippi State +12.5 over Alabama (Saturday @ 7pm est). I'm a Tide fan through and through. But, there are a couple of things that work against my Tide here. For starters, we could have easily lost to Tennessee at home and that game was telling in many ways. Also, this team did manage to win and cover against LSU but that was mainly due to a terrible call by the ump regarding the interception, the fact that Jordan Jefferson got hurt and this team was actually down by 5 going into the fourth quarter giving up 7.5 points. Mississippi State is the same team that lost to Florida by 11 points and certainly, this team can ball up here against a Tide team who I don't believe is as good as Florida. This is an evening game as well which works to Mississippi State and the crowd's hand and their respective crowd will be rocking. After all, the Bulldogs feel that they could have played even better against Florida and certainly they will look to step it up against Bama' for their fifth win of the season. The Bulldogs have covered their last four conference games and are 6-0 ATS when they face a team with a winning road record at home.
4 Unit Play. #162. Take Pittsburgh -7 over Notre Dame (Saturday @ 8pm est). Here is the bottom line as per this game. I think Notre Dame is overrated. I think that Pittsburgh is underrated. This team gets so much hype for someone that has not played much away from home. I understand Notre Dame has revenge from last year when Pitt beat them by a field goal on the road, but nevertheless, many people don't even know that Pitt is a top ten team this year. They are the pride of the Big East along with Cincy at this point in the year. Whenever Notre Dame has played someone of decent competition at home - they have lost. They lost to Navy at home recently and also lost to USC. Now, this team has to go on the road and play someone of decent caliber. I believe Pitt might just lay the wood on this squad today as they beat Syracuse by 27, South Florida by 27 and Navy by 13 at home. I believe they have the goods here to beat the Irish by double-digits as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite by this margin and the Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Big East and 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
4 Unit Play. #156. Take Washington State +17.5 over UCLA (Saturday @ 5pm est). Yes, I know Washington State is horrendous. But, UCLA should not be laying this many points to anyone. The line has slowly been coming down as well despite the public being on UCLA. UCLA does not have a high powered offense for starters that can necessarily exceed this spread fast. But, also, this is one of the few conference games that Washington State might have a shot to win. So, naturally, this team will play above its means a bit for this contest. Remember, this team lost to Arizona State by just 13 at home and easily covered the 20.5 spread. This team also defeated SMU Outright at home as a four point underdog. I just believe Washington State realizes that it is now or never for them to win a conference game this year and they will step up as certainly if they can hang within two possessions of Arizona State at home, they can have the goods to hang within the 17.5 against the Bruins as well. The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games overall and the Cougars are 7-3 ATS as an Underdog of 10.5 or more.
4 Unit Play. #222. Take Tennessee Titans-6.5 over the Buffalo Bills (Sunday @ 1pm est). In Vince I trust. This team is playing with confidence once again as they are 2-6. It seems with Kerry they were going through the motions. Now, with Vince, they come off a huge win over the Niners on the road. It truly showed that this team was is coming back and their win last week was legit. With the Bills getting back Edwards and it will likely take him some time to get back in form, plus with the fact they are banged up quite a bit, and the Titans beginning to get on a roll here, I like the Titans here to cover the touchdown spread. The Titans could very well go 3-6 if they can pull this game off and who knows, as the season progresses on, they very well could finish 8-8 or possibly even 9-7 if the season works out how they need it to work out. I'm not the one to ride with the public here but I don't mind doing it as I think this team is about to get on a run and I want to be on the bandwagon for it. The Titans are indeed 2-0 ATS with Vince as the quarterback this year and I believe they have a good shot at going 3-0 ATS with Vince behind the wheel after this week. The Titans have put up 64 points in the last two weeks and they have a decent shot at covering the -6.5 here.
4 Unit Play. #233. Take Seattle Seahawks +9 over the Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:15pm est). I talked about this on my video a bit but long story short, the Seahawks have revenge in this divisional game today. This team was embarrassed by Arizona at home earlier this year in front of their fans. Arizona comes off a big win over the Bears and I think it will be tough for them to get up for this game. More than likely, they will get up for the second half and lollygag a bit in the first half. The Seahawks are still a prideful team and they come off a nice second half against the Lions and I can see Matt H. leading his troops here to play well in Arizona. The line has been coming down steadily in favor of Seattle despite the public being on Arizona as well. Again, division game and revenge can go along way similar to the Panthers game which is our NFL Goy this week. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS as a favorite by this margin and 7-15 ATS ATS as a home favorite by this margin in their last 22 games.
Good luck,
IC
I won't be playing his picks, been very cold lately, but here you go:
8 Unit Play. #228. NFL Game of the Year. Take the Carolina Panthers +1 over the Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 1pm est). Well, this game has everything we are looking for. For starters, I was on the Panthers last week when they covered the spread against the New Orleans Saints. Heck, they nearly won that game Outright. Yes, they lost by double-digits but they easily covered the spread and this team once again was winning outright at half. These two teams have met earlier this year. And, the Falcons defeated Carolina by a score of 20-28. It was interesting when that line was originally set back on 9/20/09 as Atlanta was favored by six points and they barely covered winning by eight. Now, that over 75% of the public is on the Falcons on the road here, Carolina is placed as +1 dog. In fact, the line opened up at Carolina as a +2.5 dog and it has slowly come down despite 75% of the public riding the Falcons. Let me phrase it another way. With over three-fourths of the public on the visiting Falcons, the line has gone 1.5 points the other way for the Panthers who are at home and only 25% of the public is on them. That's a lot of smart money folks. The Panthers have revenge. The Panthers are at home. The Panthers are playing better. This is a division game and a must win game for Carolina. Note, the Panthers come off a loss and the Falcons come off a nice win at Carolina. Carolina will absolutely be rocking for this game as the Panthers are playing much better defeating the likes of Arizona on the road outright as a double-digit dog - heck, they won that game by double-digits as they covered that game by a ridiculous 23 points. Now, I am a Falcons fan. But, I am more interesting in making my clients money. I have not lost an NFL Game of the Year in my life and I don't plan on losing it today. Let's roll with the Panthers who are playing much better right now as they face my Falcons at home. The Falcons are just 1-3 on the road although they are a highly talented team, as I believe this is just a bad spot for them. Remember, all we need is Carolina to win here as even a field goal gets the job done for us. Panthers have covered back to back games and the last three of four, they likely cover three straight and four of five after this contest.
4 Unit Play. #111. Take Under 45 between South Florida @ Rutgers (Thursday @ 7:45pm est). The total has steadily come down on this game. I believe this game favors Rutgers for several reasons. For starters, Rutgers has quietly won six of seven since their opening loss to Cincy. That loss was probably one of the best losses for this team as it placed a chip on their shoulder and they have been playing much better. Heck, this team went to Connecticut and won outright as a 7.5 dog. Now, I'm not saying they beat South Florida today, but I am willing to say their defense will make a stand at home. Rutgers has given up just 46 points in their last three ballgames at home and nearly half of those came to a very good Pittsburgh team. South Florida has not been impressive on the road this year outside the Florida State game so I don’t trust them to put a load of points on the board. Even the FSU game they played, the total points scored in that game was 24. South Florida has revenge from last year as well and I think that combined with the fact that Rutgers defense is playing well, this game is likely to go under the posted total. The Under is 7-2 in the Bulls last Nine games as an Underdog and the Under is 4-0 in the Scarlet Knight's last four home games.
4 Unit Play. #186. Take Mississippi State +12.5 over Alabama (Saturday @ 7pm est). I'm a Tide fan through and through. But, there are a couple of things that work against my Tide here. For starters, we could have easily lost to Tennessee at home and that game was telling in many ways. Also, this team did manage to win and cover against LSU but that was mainly due to a terrible call by the ump regarding the interception, the fact that Jordan Jefferson got hurt and this team was actually down by 5 going into the fourth quarter giving up 7.5 points. Mississippi State is the same team that lost to Florida by 11 points and certainly, this team can ball up here against a Tide team who I don't believe is as good as Florida. This is an evening game as well which works to Mississippi State and the crowd's hand and their respective crowd will be rocking. After all, the Bulldogs feel that they could have played even better against Florida and certainly they will look to step it up against Bama' for their fifth win of the season. The Bulldogs have covered their last four conference games and are 6-0 ATS when they face a team with a winning road record at home.
4 Unit Play. #162. Take Pittsburgh -7 over Notre Dame (Saturday @ 8pm est). Here is the bottom line as per this game. I think Notre Dame is overrated. I think that Pittsburgh is underrated. This team gets so much hype for someone that has not played much away from home. I understand Notre Dame has revenge from last year when Pitt beat them by a field goal on the road, but nevertheless, many people don't even know that Pitt is a top ten team this year. They are the pride of the Big East along with Cincy at this point in the year. Whenever Notre Dame has played someone of decent competition at home - they have lost. They lost to Navy at home recently and also lost to USC. Now, this team has to go on the road and play someone of decent caliber. I believe Pitt might just lay the wood on this squad today as they beat Syracuse by 27, South Florida by 27 and Navy by 13 at home. I believe they have the goods here to beat the Irish by double-digits as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite by this margin and the Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Big East and 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.
4 Unit Play. #156. Take Washington State +17.5 over UCLA (Saturday @ 5pm est). Yes, I know Washington State is horrendous. But, UCLA should not be laying this many points to anyone. The line has slowly been coming down as well despite the public being on UCLA. UCLA does not have a high powered offense for starters that can necessarily exceed this spread fast. But, also, this is one of the few conference games that Washington State might have a shot to win. So, naturally, this team will play above its means a bit for this contest. Remember, this team lost to Arizona State by just 13 at home and easily covered the 20.5 spread. This team also defeated SMU Outright at home as a four point underdog. I just believe Washington State realizes that it is now or never for them to win a conference game this year and they will step up as certainly if they can hang within two possessions of Arizona State at home, they can have the goods to hang within the 17.5 against the Bruins as well. The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games overall and the Cougars are 7-3 ATS as an Underdog of 10.5 or more.
4 Unit Play. #222. Take Tennessee Titans-6.5 over the Buffalo Bills (Sunday @ 1pm est). In Vince I trust. This team is playing with confidence once again as they are 2-6. It seems with Kerry they were going through the motions. Now, with Vince, they come off a huge win over the Niners on the road. It truly showed that this team was is coming back and their win last week was legit. With the Bills getting back Edwards and it will likely take him some time to get back in form, plus with the fact they are banged up quite a bit, and the Titans beginning to get on a roll here, I like the Titans here to cover the touchdown spread. The Titans could very well go 3-6 if they can pull this game off and who knows, as the season progresses on, they very well could finish 8-8 or possibly even 9-7 if the season works out how they need it to work out. I'm not the one to ride with the public here but I don't mind doing it as I think this team is about to get on a run and I want to be on the bandwagon for it. The Titans are indeed 2-0 ATS with Vince as the quarterback this year and I believe they have a good shot at going 3-0 ATS with Vince behind the wheel after this week. The Titans have put up 64 points in the last two weeks and they have a decent shot at covering the -6.5 here.
4 Unit Play. #233. Take Seattle Seahawks +9 over the Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:15pm est). I talked about this on my video a bit but long story short, the Seahawks have revenge in this divisional game today. This team was embarrassed by Arizona at home earlier this year in front of their fans. Arizona comes off a big win over the Bears and I think it will be tough for them to get up for this game. More than likely, they will get up for the second half and lollygag a bit in the first half. The Seahawks are still a prideful team and they come off a nice second half against the Lions and I can see Matt H. leading his troops here to play well in Arizona. The line has been coming down steadily in favor of Seattle despite the public being on Arizona as well. Again, division game and revenge can go along way similar to the Panthers game which is our NFL Goy this week. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS as a favorite by this margin and 7-15 ATS ATS as a home favorite by this margin in their last 22 games.
Good luck,
IC
Dr Bob
Rotation #107 Bowling Green (-4) 2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Bowling Green started at 3 pm Pacific and was the first game released on the release page at 2:45 pm. Rotation #116 Cincinnati (-9) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -13 1/2.
Rotation #120 Illinois (-4) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.
Rotation #149 Nebraska (-3 1/2) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -6 1/2.
Rotation #176 Nevada (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #182 Oregon State (-12) 3-Stars at -13 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -14.
Rotation #192 Oklahoma State (-4) 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Rotation #214 Middle Tennessee St (-12 1/2) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -15.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #111 South Florida (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 at -112 odds or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #151 UAB (-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #194 TCU (-19 1/2) Strong Opinion at -20 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -18 or less.
Rotation #107 Bowling Green (-4) 2-Stars at -4 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Bowling Green started at 3 pm Pacific and was the first game released on the release page at 2:45 pm. Rotation #116 Cincinnati (-9) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars up to -13 1/2.
Rotation #120 Illinois (-4) 2-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.
Rotation #149 Nebraska (-3 1/2) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -6 1/2.
Rotation #176 Nevada (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #182 Oregon State (-12) 3-Stars at -13 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -14.
Rotation #192 Oklahoma State (-4) 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -3.
Rotation #214 Middle Tennessee St (-12 1/2) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -15.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #111 South Florida (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3 at -112 odds or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #151 UAB (-1) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or better.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #194 TCU (-19 1/2) Strong Opinion at -20 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -18 or less.
Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Fri, 11/13/09 - 7:35 PM •~
dime bet 706 NYK -1.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 705 GSW
Analysis:
This is a game between two poor teams – they are in my opinion two of the five worst teams in the league, but regarding this opinion the Warriors can still be worse than the Knicks due to their unbelieva~ble bad team chemistry and environment involving the team.
If you remember I took the Over with the Knicks in their last game saying that the rookie Toney Douglas would spark the team and make them more competitive and assertive in the offensive end. Well, Douglas didn’t disappoint me because he was a starter and in 35:44 minutes of action, he scored 23 points by shooting 10-19 from the field. The Knicks couldn’t remain competitive in the second half against the Hawks, but facing the Hawks is not the same thing, as facing the Warriors. I also said that PG Chris Duhon is struggling right now and once again he showed that he is in a poor form by going scoreless – 0-6 FG in 25minutes. Mike D’Antoni has already said that Duhon will be the starter tonight, but luckily for the Knicks, Nate Robinson is probable for this contest and although I’m not a particular fan of him, he will surely be more efficient than Duhon and the Knicks will have more options in the backcourt.
Speaking of the Warriors is speaking of a total disastrous team. Stephen Jackson declared in the off season that he wants to be traded and his commitment to the team is non existent. In the Warriors' last game against the Pacers, Jackson was benched by Don Nelson during the game and he played only 18 minutes. A Yahoo Sports story says that two Golden State players told them on Monday that the team’s play – and overall morale – won’t truly improve until Jackson is gone. To make things even worse, yesterday Warriors coach Don Nelson and Monta Ellis had a public spat after the practice, an episode that acts as a microcosm of the dysfunctional team. Already, Randolph is questioning his playing time and Ellis and rookie Stephen Curry are struggling to find much cohesion, so we are talking about a team who is in total collapse.
The Knicks usually struggle against physical and powerful frontcourts due to their size, but tonight this won't surely happen. Warriors' big men Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf are out and the Warriors have only Mikkie Moore and Anthony Randolph for the frontcourt and these players aren’t exactly two dominating players – far from that! The Knicks may be a poor team, but they still try to compete unlike the Warriors, the problem is being to finish off the games against more talented teams. This is not the case of tonight’s game and while facing a poor team who is struggling in every possible department, I see some value on the Knicks to bounce back and snap their 5-game losing streak. Take the Knicks tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 New York Knicks (-1)
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Fri, 11/13/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 707 POR / 708 NOH Under 190.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: All the Hornets/Blazers games are almost destined to be low scoring affairs because of the pace that both teams play on the court. These two teams play in a slow pace using half court sets for their defense and offense and it will be needed an extraordinary efficient night from the offenses to reach such a high line of 190 points.
For example, last season these two teams faced each other four different times and in the most prolific night for the Hornets in this matchup, they shot 51.3 % from the field, 8-17 3pts and scored…only 92 points! On the other side, the Blazers shot in one game 53.6% from the field, but scored “only” 101 points. With these numbers in any other game the teams would reach the 110 points, but not in this matchup.
The Hornets fired now former he~ad coach Byron Scott after their disastrous night in Phoenix, in which they allowed the Suns to score 124 points including a whopping 75 points mark at the halftime. It was their worst defensive performance of the season (and there are many in just 9 games) and with a new head coach, I expect them to be more aggressive tonight. This is just a mental question when a new head coach is inserted and I’m playing with this fact for tonight’s contest.
Meanwhile, the Blazers are peaking right now by winning their last 4 games, however I expect them to have a common competitive letdown tonight, as in their last 3 games they faced three awful teams: Minnesota twice and Memphis. They easily won these three games and so they aren’t involved in a competitive game in about a week and this isn't usually good for any team. A common factor for them lately is their defensive consistency. They are in a streak of 6 consecutive games without allowing their opponents to reach the century mark in points and their average is a remarkable 84.66 points per game allowed, so I expect them to keep doing their good job on the defensive end tonight.
I tracked all four games between these two teams last season and by expecting a similar pace tonight my fair line for this contest is 182/184 points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190 @ 1.91 on Bookmaker
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Fri, 11/13/09 - 7:05 PM •~
dime bet 701 UTA / 702 PHI Under 197.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
For this game we have two teams who aren’t playing particularly well as of late and the matchup between these two teams favors a low scoring game.
The Sixers are with a 4-4 record right now, but they are far from being a consistent team. In fact, if we look to their wins, we saw that they defeated Milwaukee in the Bucks' first game of the season, they beat the Knicks and the Nets twice, so they are yet to have a convincing big win. Part of such struggles are related to their offense. Despite adding Jason Kapono to the roster in the off season, the Sixers are still an awful team in the perimeter, as they are connecting just 29.92 % behind the arc – good for the 6th worst mark in the league. The bread and the butter of this team is in the paint, but unfortunately for them, Elton Brand is in miserable form right now. In 8 games, he is averaging just 9.5 points per game, while shooting a poor mark for a PF of 41.2% from the field. Also Thaddeus Young is not having a good season so far by shooting just 42.3 % FG and the Sixers have some players in subpar form and when they face a team who can close the rim, they simply can’t score. That’s why they scored only 74 points against the Celtics, 81 against the Pistons and even in their last game, they scored only 82 points against the Nets.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are coming for this game in a bad mood. They were spanked in Boston last Wednesday and their defense once again hobbled by allowing the Celtics to shot 53.2% from the field and allowed 30 assists – however note that we simply can’t compare the Sixers offense to the Celtics offense. The Jazz have a terrible perimeter defense and luckily for them I've already said that the 76ers are a bad perimeter offensive team. However the same thing can be said about the Jazz, as they are connecting only 30.85% from the 3pts line and like the Sixers, they need to score inside the post to be competitive, so we will have two similar teams facing each other and scoring will be hard for both tea~ms. For the Jazz, Deron Williams is out for this contest and Utah will be playing without their best perimeter player who is averaging 9.9 assists per game, so I don’t expect them to have a good ball movement by them tonight.
With both teams struggling on the offensive side, I expect this game to be a ugly contest with a lot of turnovers and blocks because we are dealing with two one-dimensional offensive teams. My fair line for this game is 192 points and I see enough edge on the Under to pull the trigger in this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 197
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Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Fri, 11/13/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 712 BOS -9.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 711 ATL
Analysis: In my opinion this game will set the difference between the men and the boys: the Celtics and the Hawks. I've already said that the Celtics are the best NBA team early on the season and when they are in a favorable spot, they look invincible not only by winning their games, but by literally spanking their opponents.
The Celtics had a busy and tough start of the season by playing 8 games in just 12 days and they looked somehow tired in the final stretch of games. Not coincidently, they ended 0-3 ATS in those games and finally they had the chance to rest 3 days before facing the Jazz at home. The score of that game says it all, as the Celtics blown out the Jazz by 105-86. They shot 53.2 % from the field and had 7 players with double digits points – that's what we can call a complete team. We are talking about the best defense of the league and at the same time the 5th most efficient offense in the league, so the Celtics have the full package to perform a blowout game tonight.
For tonight’s contest, they had one day off to rest and as they are playing again at home, this is a perfect spot for them. Plus due to the first round series against the Hawks two seasons ago, the Celtics will be highly motivated tonight, as this is supposed to be a “rivalry” and the Celtics loves to make statement games.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are 6-2 in the season and hold a terrific 7-1 ATS record. Despite this good record, I’m still not convinced by them, as they failed to be competitive in tough spots. I’m not judging their games against inferior teams, as they did their job in winning, although they needed to perform late rallies in some games. Now taking a brief lo~ok in their games against top teams, what can we see? They lost by 110-118 in LA against the Lakers and even though they lost by just 8 points, I remember that the score after three quarters was 98-76 to LA and only a 34-20 fourth quarter run hid such bad performance. Then, they defeated the Blazers on the road in a impressive win, however the Blazers were in bad spot of playing 5 games in 8 days and with Greg Oden in foul trouble (5 personal fouls in just 15 minutes), the Hawks outrebounded the Blazers by 46-36. Finally they spanked the Nuggets at home by 125-100, but I remember that the Nuggets were playing back to back games in the middle of a road trip and without the services of Kenyon Martin. With a thin frontcourt, the Nuggets didn’t have a chance to compete. This won’t surely happen tonight with the Celtics, as they have a dominant frontcourt with Garnett, Perkins and Wallace.
While the Celtics already showing that they can beat a top team in any circumstance by defeating the Cavaliers, Hornets or Utah, this is the first real test for the Hawks in a tough spot for them and I don’t think that they can go toe for toe with the Celtics. I expect Boston to be dominant tonight and win this game by double digits points. Take Boston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Boston Celtics (-9)
dime bet 706 NYK -1.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 705 GSW
Analysis:
This is a game between two poor teams – they are in my opinion two of the five worst teams in the league, but regarding this opinion the Warriors can still be worse than the Knicks due to their unbelieva~ble bad team chemistry and environment involving the team.
If you remember I took the Over with the Knicks in their last game saying that the rookie Toney Douglas would spark the team and make them more competitive and assertive in the offensive end. Well, Douglas didn’t disappoint me because he was a starter and in 35:44 minutes of action, he scored 23 points by shooting 10-19 from the field. The Knicks couldn’t remain competitive in the second half against the Hawks, but facing the Hawks is not the same thing, as facing the Warriors. I also said that PG Chris Duhon is struggling right now and once again he showed that he is in a poor form by going scoreless – 0-6 FG in 25minutes. Mike D’Antoni has already said that Duhon will be the starter tonight, but luckily for the Knicks, Nate Robinson is probable for this contest and although I’m not a particular fan of him, he will surely be more efficient than Duhon and the Knicks will have more options in the backcourt.
Speaking of the Warriors is speaking of a total disastrous team. Stephen Jackson declared in the off season that he wants to be traded and his commitment to the team is non existent. In the Warriors' last game against the Pacers, Jackson was benched by Don Nelson during the game and he played only 18 minutes. A Yahoo Sports story says that two Golden State players told them on Monday that the team’s play – and overall morale – won’t truly improve until Jackson is gone. To make things even worse, yesterday Warriors coach Don Nelson and Monta Ellis had a public spat after the practice, an episode that acts as a microcosm of the dysfunctional team. Already, Randolph is questioning his playing time and Ellis and rookie Stephen Curry are struggling to find much cohesion, so we are talking about a team who is in total collapse.
The Knicks usually struggle against physical and powerful frontcourts due to their size, but tonight this won't surely happen. Warriors' big men Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf are out and the Warriors have only Mikkie Moore and Anthony Randolph for the frontcourt and these players aren’t exactly two dominating players – far from that! The Knicks may be a poor team, but they still try to compete unlike the Warriors, the problem is being to finish off the games against more talented teams. This is not the case of tonight’s game and while facing a poor team who is struggling in every possible department, I see some value on the Knicks to bounce back and snap their 5-game losing streak. Take the Knicks tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 New York Knicks (-1)
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Fri, 11/13/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 707 POR / 708 NOH Under 190.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: All the Hornets/Blazers games are almost destined to be low scoring affairs because of the pace that both teams play on the court. These two teams play in a slow pace using half court sets for their defense and offense and it will be needed an extraordinary efficient night from the offenses to reach such a high line of 190 points.
For example, last season these two teams faced each other four different times and in the most prolific night for the Hornets in this matchup, they shot 51.3 % from the field, 8-17 3pts and scored…only 92 points! On the other side, the Blazers shot in one game 53.6% from the field, but scored “only” 101 points. With these numbers in any other game the teams would reach the 110 points, but not in this matchup.
The Hornets fired now former he~ad coach Byron Scott after their disastrous night in Phoenix, in which they allowed the Suns to score 124 points including a whopping 75 points mark at the halftime. It was their worst defensive performance of the season (and there are many in just 9 games) and with a new head coach, I expect them to be more aggressive tonight. This is just a mental question when a new head coach is inserted and I’m playing with this fact for tonight’s contest.
Meanwhile, the Blazers are peaking right now by winning their last 4 games, however I expect them to have a common competitive letdown tonight, as in their last 3 games they faced three awful teams: Minnesota twice and Memphis. They easily won these three games and so they aren’t involved in a competitive game in about a week and this isn't usually good for any team. A common factor for them lately is their defensive consistency. They are in a streak of 6 consecutive games without allowing their opponents to reach the century mark in points and their average is a remarkable 84.66 points per game allowed, so I expect them to keep doing their good job on the defensive end tonight.
I tracked all four games between these two teams last season and by expecting a similar pace tonight my fair line for this contest is 182/184 points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190 @ 1.91 on Bookmaker
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Fri, 11/13/09 - 7:05 PM •~
dime bet 701 UTA / 702 PHI Under 197.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
For this game we have two teams who aren’t playing particularly well as of late and the matchup between these two teams favors a low scoring game.
The Sixers are with a 4-4 record right now, but they are far from being a consistent team. In fact, if we look to their wins, we saw that they defeated Milwaukee in the Bucks' first game of the season, they beat the Knicks and the Nets twice, so they are yet to have a convincing big win. Part of such struggles are related to their offense. Despite adding Jason Kapono to the roster in the off season, the Sixers are still an awful team in the perimeter, as they are connecting just 29.92 % behind the arc – good for the 6th worst mark in the league. The bread and the butter of this team is in the paint, but unfortunately for them, Elton Brand is in miserable form right now. In 8 games, he is averaging just 9.5 points per game, while shooting a poor mark for a PF of 41.2% from the field. Also Thaddeus Young is not having a good season so far by shooting just 42.3 % FG and the Sixers have some players in subpar form and when they face a team who can close the rim, they simply can’t score. That’s why they scored only 74 points against the Celtics, 81 against the Pistons and even in their last game, they scored only 82 points against the Nets.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are coming for this game in a bad mood. They were spanked in Boston last Wednesday and their defense once again hobbled by allowing the Celtics to shot 53.2% from the field and allowed 30 assists – however note that we simply can’t compare the Sixers offense to the Celtics offense. The Jazz have a terrible perimeter defense and luckily for them I've already said that the 76ers are a bad perimeter offensive team. However the same thing can be said about the Jazz, as they are connecting only 30.85% from the 3pts line and like the Sixers, they need to score inside the post to be competitive, so we will have two similar teams facing each other and scoring will be hard for both tea~ms. For the Jazz, Deron Williams is out for this contest and Utah will be playing without their best perimeter player who is averaging 9.9 assists per game, so I don’t expect them to have a good ball movement by them tonight.
With both teams struggling on the offensive side, I expect this game to be a ugly contest with a lot of turnovers and blocks because we are dealing with two one-dimensional offensive teams. My fair line for this game is 192 points and I see enough edge on the Under to pull the trigger in this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 197
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Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Fri, 11/13/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 712 BOS -9.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 711 ATL
Analysis: In my opinion this game will set the difference between the men and the boys: the Celtics and the Hawks. I've already said that the Celtics are the best NBA team early on the season and when they are in a favorable spot, they look invincible not only by winning their games, but by literally spanking their opponents.
The Celtics had a busy and tough start of the season by playing 8 games in just 12 days and they looked somehow tired in the final stretch of games. Not coincidently, they ended 0-3 ATS in those games and finally they had the chance to rest 3 days before facing the Jazz at home. The score of that game says it all, as the Celtics blown out the Jazz by 105-86. They shot 53.2 % from the field and had 7 players with double digits points – that's what we can call a complete team. We are talking about the best defense of the league and at the same time the 5th most efficient offense in the league, so the Celtics have the full package to perform a blowout game tonight.
For tonight’s contest, they had one day off to rest and as they are playing again at home, this is a perfect spot for them. Plus due to the first round series against the Hawks two seasons ago, the Celtics will be highly motivated tonight, as this is supposed to be a “rivalry” and the Celtics loves to make statement games.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are 6-2 in the season and hold a terrific 7-1 ATS record. Despite this good record, I’m still not convinced by them, as they failed to be competitive in tough spots. I’m not judging their games against inferior teams, as they did their job in winning, although they needed to perform late rallies in some games. Now taking a brief lo~ok in their games against top teams, what can we see? They lost by 110-118 in LA against the Lakers and even though they lost by just 8 points, I remember that the score after three quarters was 98-76 to LA and only a 34-20 fourth quarter run hid such bad performance. Then, they defeated the Blazers on the road in a impressive win, however the Blazers were in bad spot of playing 5 games in 8 days and with Greg Oden in foul trouble (5 personal fouls in just 15 minutes), the Hawks outrebounded the Blazers by 46-36. Finally they spanked the Nuggets at home by 125-100, but I remember that the Nuggets were playing back to back games in the middle of a road trip and without the services of Kenyon Martin. With a thin frontcourt, the Nuggets didn’t have a chance to compete. This won’t surely happen tonight with the Celtics, as they have a dominant frontcourt with Garnett, Perkins and Wallace.
While the Celtics already showing that they can beat a top team in any circumstance by defeating the Cavaliers, Hornets or Utah, this is the first real test for the Hawks in a tough spot for them and I don’t think that they can go toe for toe with the Celtics. I expect Boston to be dominant tonight and win this game by double digits points. Take Boston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Boston Celtics (-9)
Randall the Handle 11/13
Randall the Handle
NY Islanders +1.07 over CAROLINA (REG) Pinnacle
Win, lose or draw, this “betting against the Canes” train keeps rolling and there’s no reason to get off until they show us something different. Carolina has now dropped a remarkable 13 games in a row and once again they’re sure not going to get any sympathy from this perennial bottom feeder. The Islanders are finally onto something good after years of futility. At the very worse, they’ll come out enthusiastically like they always do and play hard for 60 minutes. The Islanders have dropped three of four after a four-game winning streak, however, the losses came against the red-hot Sabres and Devils followed by an OT loss in Washington. Now the Islanders will take a huge, huge step down in class from that quartet and its chances of winning are greater than the Islanders chances. Any take-back against this frustrated and beaten down host has to be considered a good one. Play: NY Islanders +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.97 over CHICAGO (REG) Pinnacle
The Blackhawks remain one of the most overvalued teams in the league due to its great start this season after they put the hockey world on notice last year. They were a big favorite over the Av’s last game and although they won 3-2 in OT they were not the better team. The Av’s led 2-1 late and after Chicago tied it, Colorado hit three posts in the final minutes of the game. The Blackhawks have also played one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far. Meanwhile, the Leafs have played extremely well on the road and extremely well over the past 10 games or so. They’ve picked up points in all but one of its last eight and they’re most definitely a tough team to beat. Chicago’s biggest weakness is its goaltending and when you’re a huge favorite with shaky goaltending you’re also a huge risk at such a big price. It’s for that reason, among others, (the Blackhawks have the Sharks on deck) that the Maple Leafs are a solid pooch in a game they most definitely have a chance to win.
BUFFALO -½ +1.34 over Calgary Pinnacle
If nothing else, one has to trust that the Flames could very easily overlook this one in anticipation of a game tomorrow night on hockey’s biggest stage. Playing in prime time on Hockey Night in Canada in Montreal or Toronto is equivalent to NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football. It’s also worth noting that the Flames and Sabres have met just four times over the past seven years, thus, the motivation level for the Flames could be low in anticipation of tomorrow night’s match-up. In addition, the Sabres are just so tough to beat, especially at home, where they have six wins in eight games. The Flames are tough; make no mistake about that, not to mention an outstanding road record as well. However, this one is a good situational play in the Sabres favor and it says here the Flames will be ripe to get beat. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
Randall the Handle
NY Islanders +1.07 over CAROLINA (REG) Pinnacle
Win, lose or draw, this “betting against the Canes” train keeps rolling and there’s no reason to get off until they show us something different. Carolina has now dropped a remarkable 13 games in a row and once again they’re sure not going to get any sympathy from this perennial bottom feeder. The Islanders are finally onto something good after years of futility. At the very worse, they’ll come out enthusiastically like they always do and play hard for 60 minutes. The Islanders have dropped three of four after a four-game winning streak, however, the losses came against the red-hot Sabres and Devils followed by an OT loss in Washington. Now the Islanders will take a huge, huge step down in class from that quartet and its chances of winning are greater than the Islanders chances. Any take-back against this frustrated and beaten down host has to be considered a good one. Play: NY Islanders +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.97 over CHICAGO (REG) Pinnacle
The Blackhawks remain one of the most overvalued teams in the league due to its great start this season after they put the hockey world on notice last year. They were a big favorite over the Av’s last game and although they won 3-2 in OT they were not the better team. The Av’s led 2-1 late and after Chicago tied it, Colorado hit three posts in the final minutes of the game. The Blackhawks have also played one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far. Meanwhile, the Leafs have played extremely well on the road and extremely well over the past 10 games or so. They’ve picked up points in all but one of its last eight and they’re most definitely a tough team to beat. Chicago’s biggest weakness is its goaltending and when you’re a huge favorite with shaky goaltending you’re also a huge risk at such a big price. It’s for that reason, among others, (the Blackhawks have the Sharks on deck) that the Maple Leafs are a solid pooch in a game they most definitely have a chance to win.
BUFFALO -½ +1.34 over Calgary Pinnacle
If nothing else, one has to trust that the Flames could very easily overlook this one in anticipation of a game tomorrow night on hockey’s biggest stage. Playing in prime time on Hockey Night in Canada in Montreal or Toronto is equivalent to NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football. It’s also worth noting that the Flames and Sabres have met just four times over the past seven years, thus, the motivation level for the Flames could be low in anticipation of tomorrow night’s match-up. In addition, the Sabres are just so tough to beat, especially at home, where they have six wins in eight games. The Flames are tough; make no mistake about that, not to mention an outstanding road record as well. However, this one is a good situational play in the Sabres favor and it says here the Flames will be ripe to get beat. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
NBA
NEW ORLEANS +1.31 over Portland Pinnacle
The Hornets don’t have much sting this year but that can change in a hurry, as this is a good team with the league’s bet point-guard in Chris Paul. They also added Emeka Okafor in place of Tyson Chandler and that has to be considered an upgrade. The Hornets have some ugly losses this season including one to the Knicks but the bottom line is that they’re undervalued, especially at home, because of its poor start. Byron Scott was fired yesterday and many cite the reason was Scott’s reluctance to play prized rookie Darren Collison in favor of Bobby Brown or Devin Brown. GM Jeff Bower takes over and in its first game with its new coach, expect the Hornets to respond, as this is most definitely a .500 club at worst and a club that can win as many as 50 games if they get right-sided. The Trail Blazers are among the elite with a relentless defense and four wins in a row. However, two of those wins were against Minnesota, one was against Memphis and the other came over San Antonio when Tony Parker went down early in the game. Prior to that four-game streak, the Blazers were just 2-3 with wins over Houston and the Thunder. This is the Blazers fifth game in seven nights and its third road game in a row and thus, it creates a great opportunity for the Hornets to get it going. Play: New Orleans +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto/L.A. CLIPPERS over 204½ Pinnacle
This one opened at 209 and has been steadily dropping all day. It may still drop a little lower so you might want to monitor it and wait for the best possible number. The reason for the under taking all the money is likely due to the Raps last game in which they held the Bulls to 29 second-half points and the loss of Clips PG Eric Gordon. However, the Bulls have yet to reach 100 points this year and put up 60 in the first half before going ice cold in the second. The Bulls were completely gassed but make no mistake, they scored 29 points because of horrible shooting and not because the Raps were great defensively. The Bulls had open looks, as every team does against this extremely soft defense of the Raptors. Toronto loves to move quickly up court, exchange baskets, shoot tons of threes and they have the personnel to do it. This is a great shooting squad but they simply do not play defense and give up more second chance points than anyone. The Clip Joint will crash the offensive boards and should get more than a few put-backs. This one should be a fast-paced game with plenty of points and until the Raps get Reggie Evans back they’ll continue to give up way too many. Play: Toronto/L.A. Clippers over 204½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Diceituponline - Hammer's NHL / NFL Plays
Hammer's NHL Picks (11/13)
10 Dimes: Anaheim/Columbus Over 5.5 -115
10 Dimes: NY Islanders/Carolina Over 5.5 -120
NFL Picks (week 10)
20 Dimes: San Francisco -3 (buy the hook) -----> WIN
20 Dimes: Denver/Washington Under 37
10 Dimes: Atlanta Falcons -1.5
10 Dimes: Atlanta/Carolina Over 43.5
Hammer's NHL Picks (11/13)
10 Dimes: Anaheim/Columbus Over 5.5 -115
10 Dimes: NY Islanders/Carolina Over 5.5 -120
NFL Picks (week 10)
20 Dimes: San Francisco -3 (buy the hook) -----> WIN
20 Dimes: Denver/Washington Under 37
10 Dimes: Atlanta Falcons -1.5
10 Dimes: Atlanta/Carolina Over 43.5
