DENVER (+1) over MIAMI
Tonight I put my 6-0 NBA start to the test with the NBA's best team in their 2nd underdog role of the season. It sure does look like a trap here, but I thought Denver's game at Indiana might be the trap and they crushed the Pacers so I'm not worried about it. I said last week in my first selection that Denver was my pick to represent the West in the NBA finals, and they could easily win 65 games. If they win 80% of their games and they are not favored here against a team that only won 43 games last season, isn't this about an 80% play? Even if you appropriately take some percentage points off because they are on the road, this is still a high percentage play. You look at some of the NBA's best teams over the last few years, and they would not be an underdog at Miami. The Nuggets now have a full year of continuity with C. Billips and Chirs Andersen is the best 6th man in the league. Players like Andersen with his flashy hair and tattoos are very important for the ratings infrastructure of the NBA, so when the Nuggets are dominating, the NBA is dominating. They are the cream of the crop in the NBA, so I won't be shy anytime they are an underdog or a small favorite. Miami is off to a good start but they are too much of a one-trick pony as Dwyane Wade is the only real player they have. Denver, on the other hand, is a solid team top to bottom and off the bench, and have plenty of other players who can step up if their star is struggling. Carmello is coming off a pair of poor shooting games and the Nuggets still won both by 20, so he's due for a better shooting performance. Now some non-degenerate, "Fall Miracle" style trends: Denver is 8-0 in the last 8 against Miami. Also, Miami was 2-12 against the 7 best teams from the Western Conference last season and lost 3 of 4 to each of the East Conference's best (Celtics, Magic and Cavs). Two years ago, they did not win a single game over any of those teams.
The NBA's opening night was the most watched in many years, so the league is happy about that and judging by the threatened lockout from the refs in the beginning of the season, they need it. Teams like Denver and Chris Andersen's flashy style keep the momentum going for the league, so look for the Nuggets to sweep the remaining road trip in an effort to be undefeated heading into their National spotlight game vs. the Lakers next Friday.
Denver 100, Miami 96
Play on: DENVER NUGGETS