SPORTS ADVISORS
Hawaii (3-3, 2-3 ATS) at (15) Boise State (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
Boise State will try to remain undefeated and avenge a heartbreaking loss from a year ago when the Broncos host Hawaii in a Western Athletic Conference matchup on the Smurf Turf at Bronco Stadium.
The Broncos, long known for their powerful offense, have relied on their defense this season as they rank seventh in the nation in points allowed (11.2 per game), limiting the opposition to seven points or less in four of their five games. On Saturday, Boise State went to Southern Mississippi and scored a 24-7 non-conference win as 10-point favorites, getting three touchdown passes from QB Kellen Moore, all in the second quarter. Moore has completed 71.3 percent of his throws for 1,339 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs.
Hawaii has won two straight, including a 24-14 home win Saturday over Louisiana Tech as a 7½-point favorite, forcing four turnovers and getting 224 passing yards and two TDs from QB Inoke Funaki. The last time the Warriors left the islands, they stunned then 22nd-ranked Fresno State 32-29 in overtime as a 21-point underdog, forcing six turnovers in beating a ranked opponent on the road for the first time ever.
These schools were both undefeated when they hooked up in Hawaii on Nov. 23, and the Warriors prevailed 39-27 as a 2½-point home chalk, outgaining Boise State 574-323. That result snapped a six-game Boise State winning streak in this series (4-2 ATS). In addition, the Broncos had scored at least 41 points in five straight games against Hawaii prior to last season.
The Warriors are in ATS slumps of 2-5 overall, 1-5 on the highway, 2-6 on Fridays and 8-19 against teams with a winning record, but they are 5-2-1 in their last eight October contests. The Broncos are on positive ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-1 in WAC contests, 8-2 on Fridays, 38-16-1 on the Smurf Turf and 39-19 following a spread-cover.
Hawaii is getting outscored by an average of nine points per game this season (30-21) and outgained by an average of 38 yards per contest (370-332). On the flip side, Boise’s stout defense is supported by an offense that nets 33.6 points and 432.2 total yards per game.
Hawaii is on over runs of 21-8-1 following a spread-cover and 19-7-1 in October, but the under is 9-2 in its last 11 overall and 6-1 in its last seven WAC contests. For Boise, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 overall, 5-1 in its last six conference games and 5-1 in its last six after a spread-cover.
Finally, the over is 4-2 in this rivalry dating back to 2002 (2-1 at Boise State).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER