COMPLIMENTARY SELECTIONS
BEN BURNS
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Toronto Argonauts
PICK: Toronto Argonauts +1.5
I cashed a big ticket on Hamilton the last time that these teams met, back on Labor Day. Laying -4 points, the Ticats won by 15. That was at Hamilton though. This week's game is at Toronto, yet the Ticats are still favored. While I respect Hamilton, I feel that provides us with solid value on the revenge-minded home underdog.
Note that the Ticats also won (16-12) here at Toronto, back in August. The Argos were laying a field goal for that game. Now, they're slight underdogs, which again goes back to the point about line value.
Note that the Ticats are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. During that stretch, the Argos are 2-0 SU/ATS when listed as home underdogs of three or less.
The Ticats beat up on Edmonton last time out. That 36-11 victory was pretty convincing - although the Ticats were beaten by the same team at Edmonton the previous week. The Argos are arguably off an even more impressive victory though, as they won on the road, at Saskatchewan, against a better team.
With the O/U line currently listed at 49.5, note that the Argos are a profitable 25-13 ATS the last 38 times that they played a home game where the line ranged between 49.5 and 52. Consider Toronto
Jim Feist
Colorado Avalanche vs. New Jersey Devils
Take: Colorado Avalanche
Colorado isn't getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers, a 2-1 record despite being an underdog all three games. The Avalanche won a 5-4 thriller at Detroit that saw Colorado overcome three deficits. The Avs out-shot the still star- studded Wings 38-28. New Jersey (1-3) is favored but hasn't been scoring, averaging 7 goals in 4 games. Play Colorado.
EZWINNERS
Texas Rangers +135
The Texas Rangers have lost nine straight postseason games against the New York Yankees but I expect that streak to end in this game. These two teams split eight games this season and home field proved to be the key to this match up. The Yankees swept three games at home against the Rangers, while the Rangers went 4-1 in their five home meetings with the Yankees. CJ Wilson gets the start for the Rangers and Wilson pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his one start against the Rays and has held left handed batters to a .144 batting average this season. The Yankees made quick work of the Twins which is not necessarily a good thing for CC Sabathia who does not always pitch his best when pitching with extra rest. I like the Rangers to take this one at home, play on Texas.
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at TEXAS (+135)
I’ll go ahead and grab the plus-money with the home team in this one as I’m looking for Rangers’ lefty C.J. Wilson (16-8, 3.25 ERA) to pitch well and outduel Yankees’ lefty C.C. Sabathia (22-7, 3.21 ERA).
Wilson was very good in Game 2 of the ALDS in Tampa Bay, allowing just two hits in 6.1 innings of scoreless work. He struck out seven and walked just two in the 6-0 victory. In his last home start, he gave up two runs over five innings of a 6-2 win over the Angels. He’s already seen the Yankees three times this season, including two at home with the Rangers winning both.
Wilson went 11-3 in front of the home fans this season and with him on the hill, the Rangers are on streaks of 6-0 against A.L. East teams, 15-3 when he goes at home, 25-7 overall, 6-2 in series openers and 8-0 at home against winning teams.
As a team, the Rangers are on streaks of 10-3 against winning teams, 8-2 against A.L. East teams and 6-0 against left-handers. The Yankees are just 1-5 on the road against left-handers and 2-7 on Fridays, plus just 2-9 overall against southpaws.
The Rangers have won four of the last five against the Yankees in Texas, but a win in this opener would go a long way to showing this team that it can take down the Bronx Bombers. They’ve heard all week about how they aren’t able to take down the Yankees, and how they’ve been a playoff disaster. But this series will start well for them as Wilson has been nails down the stretch and he’ll deliver a good quality outing here.
The Yankees don’t hit lefties well and they are getting a good one today in Wilson. So grab the plus-money and play the Rangers here tonight!
Craig Davis
NY Yankees at TEXAS
Tonight's Bonus Play is on the Yankees/Rangers OVER the total. It's amazing how pitching matchups really change these totals in Vegas. Just two nights ago the Rangers/Rays total was 6 1/2 with Cliff Lee and David Price on the hill. Now tonight with CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia getting the start, the total is a full two runs higher.
Are we to believe these two pitchers are that much worse than Price and Lee? Shoot, Sabathia might be the Cy Young Award Winner in the American League... so either Vegas expects the Yankees to pound the crap out of Wilson or they jacked up the total and are hoping everyone takes the under.
I'm not buying it.
After watching CC Sabathia pitch in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Minnesota, I have no doubts he can be hit by this Rangers offense. They did a heck of a job against David Price and James Shields in Games 1, 2, and 5 and I think they'll be able to hold their own against Sabathia at home tonight.
As for the Yankees, do you really think CJ Wilson is going to be able to deliver an 8-inning masterpiece? Wilson has never beaten the Yankees in his career and is ERA against the Bronx Bombers in his last outing was a paltry 12.00. New York is well-rested and ready to take care of business as usual. This game goes over the total by the 7th inning.
2? OVER