Indian CowBoy 10-9-09
4 Unit Play. #609. Take the Indiana Fever +5 over the Phoenix Mercury (Friday @ 9pm est). Indeed! We will take the Fever to hang in there at Phoenix this evening. As Coach Gaines continues to repeat that it was not the Indiana defense that shut down Phoenix in their two losses this year, Indiana will take that to heart and will likely have a strong defensive presence this evening. At the end of the day, this is the final deciding game. Today is the day where a champion is crowned and someone goes home as the runner-up. Hence, that is why home court advantage was such a big deal coming into this series with just five total games deciding the wnba champion. Each team has won a road bout and Indiana has actually won two of three on the road this year at Phoenix. In fact, they have either won Outright or covered the last three of four contests against Phoenix with the one contest they did not cover or win coming in their last game in Indiana - a must win for Phoenix when they were facing elimination. What's interesting is that if Katie Douglas does not shoot 2-14 in that game, Indiana could have very well won that game as well and closed the championship out at home. Now, they have to travel to Phoenix to decide who the victor is. Indiana could very well win this game outright as I have them at a 42% chance of doing just that, and I like the five points here as well as it seems we have the edge on this shaved coin. This game will come down to the last possession and bucket similar to game one did as Indiana ended up falling short in overtime by a few points. I like the Fever here coming off the loss, staying focused on the road and Katie Douglas to have a monster step up game coming off her 2-14 performance in game four. The Mercury are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and the Fever are 7-0 ATS in Phoenix over their last seven meetings.