dr bob opinion
NEVADA (-10.5) 38 Louisiana Tech 24
Over/Under Total: 58.0
06:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Oct-09
Nevada is now 17-3 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault after destroying UNLV 63-28 last week while racking up 775 total yards at 10.8 yards per play. That was Nevada's first win of the season, but the Wolf Pack are better than a 1-3 team and have been quite unlucky in being -8 in fumbles lost margin in just 4 games. After starting the season with a blowout loss at Notre Dame, the Wolf Pack lost to Colorado State because of a -5 in turnover margin (they out-gained CSU), lost by 10 at home to a good Missouri team, and then beat up on UNLV last week. Overall, Nevada has averaged 6.9 yppl and allowed 6.3 yppl this season against a better than average schedule of teams and they should continue their climb back towards .500 with a win tonight over a worse than average Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), average defensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl), and worse than average in special teams. Tech's defense id a good job last week at home against a good Hawaii pass attack, but they gave up over 300 rushing yards to both Auburn and Navy, the two good rushing teams that they've faced and Nevada should run all over them tonight given that the Wolf Pack have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play or more in all 4 of their games and are averaging 7.6 yprp for the season. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is also more than capable of having success throwing the ball and my math model calls for an 11 point victory. There is extra home field advantage here in Reno, so I'll call for a 14 point margin.
NEVADA (-10.5) 38 Louisiana Tech 24
Over/Under Total: 58.0
06:00 PM Pacific Time Friday, Oct-09
Nevada is now 17-3 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault after destroying UNLV 63-28 last week while racking up 775 total yards at 10.8 yards per play. That was Nevada's first win of the season, but the Wolf Pack are better than a 1-3 team and have been quite unlucky in being -8 in fumbles lost margin in just 4 games. After starting the season with a blowout loss at Notre Dame, the Wolf Pack lost to Colorado State because of a -5 in turnover margin (they out-gained CSU), lost by 10 at home to a good Missouri team, and then beat up on UNLV last week. Overall, Nevada has averaged 6.9 yppl and allowed 6.3 yppl this season against a better than average schedule of teams and they should continue their climb back towards .500 with a win tonight over a worse than average Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), average defensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl), and worse than average in special teams. Tech's defense id a good job last week at home against a good Hawaii pass attack, but they gave up over 300 rushing yards to both Auburn and Navy, the two good rushing teams that they've faced and Nevada should run all over them tonight given that the Wolf Pack have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play or more in all 4 of their games and are averaging 7.6 yprp for the season. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is also more than capable of having success throwing the ball and my math model calls for an 11 point victory. There is extra home field advantage here in Reno, so I'll call for a 14 point margin.
FadeStewTheSquare
Just a heads up on this service, its fading the squarest moron ever to place a sports bet. The guy blows his bankroll every 2 weeks and is quite possibly the biggest idiot in the history of sports handicapping. He buys hooks on every play and doesnt have any fundemental grasp of how to wager properly. Fading him has made me a ton of money. Here are the opposite of his plays for the weekend:
Went 5-1 last week and now 16-4 YTD
He also posted a series play on the Cards which is down the tubes aswell so there is ANOTHER win pending.
For tonight he is on Nevada and the under. We will be playing LA Tech +10.5 and over 57.
I also talked to his bookie in Dallas where he confirmed that he went bust last week and settled up yesterday, so he is back in the game for a few more days before he blows his next paycheck!
Just a heads up on this service, its fading the squarest moron ever to place a sports bet. The guy blows his bankroll every 2 weeks and is quite possibly the biggest idiot in the history of sports handicapping. He buys hooks on every play and doesnt have any fundemental grasp of how to wager properly. Fading him has made me a ton of money. Here are the opposite of his plays for the weekend:
Went 5-1 last week and now 16-4 YTD
He also posted a series play on the Cards which is down the tubes aswell so there is ANOTHER win pending.
For tonight he is on Nevada and the under. We will be playing LA Tech +10.5 and over 57.
I also talked to his bookie in Dallas where he confirmed that he went bust last week and settled up yesterday, so he is back in the game for a few more days before he blows his next paycheck!
Charlie Scott
Louisiana Tech vs. Nevada
Play: Under 58
The public perception of Nevada is a high powered WAC offense. The perception is correct in a way, however Nevada does run their pistol offense which is a running game that chews up the game clock. Nevada has had 1 game out of 4 lined games go Over 58 and that was last weeks rivalry blow out vs UNLV, where Nevada scored most of their points in the 4th quarter vs a UNLV defense that flat out quit. LA Tech is well coached by Derek Dooley who puts an emphasis on running the ball and playing defense. During the Vegas Insider Seminar this summer, handicappers had LA Tech as a suprise team. In 3 lined games this season for LA Tech, their highest scoring game has been in a loss at Auburn 13-37 opening week. I made this total 52 and I'm on the UNDER !
Louisiana Tech vs. Nevada
Play: Under 58
The public perception of Nevada is a high powered WAC offense. The perception is correct in a way, however Nevada does run their pistol offense which is a running game that chews up the game clock. Nevada has had 1 game out of 4 lined games go Over 58 and that was last weeks rivalry blow out vs UNLV, where Nevada scored most of their points in the 4th quarter vs a UNLV defense that flat out quit. LA Tech is well coached by Derek Dooley who puts an emphasis on running the ball and playing defense. During the Vegas Insider Seminar this summer, handicappers had LA Tech as a suprise team. In 3 lined games this season for LA Tech, their highest scoring game has been in a loss at Auburn 13-37 opening week. I made this total 52 and I'm on the UNDER !
Black Widow
6* Widow Wiseguy WAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech +10.5(-102 5dimes)
LA Tech should not be a double-digit dog to a 1-3 Nevada team Friday. Yes, the Wolf Pack did pick up their first win of the season last week with a 63-28 trouncing of UNLV. But that game was 35-28 heading into the fourth quarter, much closer than the final score indicated. You can't forget that Nevada was shut out by Notre Dame 35-0 and lost at Colorado State 35-20. This team is not 10 points better than LA Tech, if they are better at all. Tech improved to 2-2 this season after losing to Auburn and Navy in their first two games with a 27-6 win over Hawaii. Their defense is the real deal, allowing just 22.0 points/game and 380 yards/game this season. Nevada his giving up 32.2 points/game and 429 total yards/game this year. Offensively, both teams are very equal with the Bulldogs putting up 25.5 points/game and Nevada 26.0 points/game. So the advantage in this game lies with LA Tech's defense and their ability to slow down this Nevada offense. This is also a revenge game for the Bulldogs, who lost to Nevada 35-31 last year. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Wolf Pack are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Nevada is getting way too much respect here following their blowout win last week, but the odds makers must have forgotten that this team is 1-3 on the season. Take LA Tech and the points.
6* Widow Wiseguy WAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech +10.5(-102 5dimes)
LA Tech should not be a double-digit dog to a 1-3 Nevada team Friday. Yes, the Wolf Pack did pick up their first win of the season last week with a 63-28 trouncing of UNLV. But that game was 35-28 heading into the fourth quarter, much closer than the final score indicated. You can't forget that Nevada was shut out by Notre Dame 35-0 and lost at Colorado State 35-20. This team is not 10 points better than LA Tech, if they are better at all. Tech improved to 2-2 this season after losing to Auburn and Navy in their first two games with a 27-6 win over Hawaii. Their defense is the real deal, allowing just 22.0 points/game and 380 yards/game this season. Nevada his giving up 32.2 points/game and 429 total yards/game this year. Offensively, both teams are very equal with the Bulldogs putting up 25.5 points/game and Nevada 26.0 points/game. So the advantage in this game lies with LA Tech's defense and their ability to slow down this Nevada offense. This is also a revenge game for the Bulldogs, who lost to Nevada 35-31 last year. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Wolf Pack are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Nevada is getting way too much respect here following their blowout win last week, but the odds makers must have forgotten that this team is 1-3 on the season. Take LA Tech and the points.
MLB – Minnesota Twins vs NY Yankees 6PM (9*) BEST BET OF THE DAY!!!! – **GUARANTEED**
October 9, 2009 by SSG
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MINNESOTA VS NY YANKEES – ALDS
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Minnesota vs NY Yankees - 6pm
PICK: Over 9.5 (9*) BBD
PICK: Minnesota RL +140 (4*)
Marco D'Angelo | MLB Total Fri, 10/09/09 - 6:05 PM oB
double-dime bet 963 MIN / 964 NYY Over 9.5 BetUS
Analysis: PLAY: MINNESOTA/YANKEES OVER
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Look for Fireworks tonight in New York as I expect both pitchers to get knocked around. Minnesota bats were just too tired in game one but tonight it will be bombs away. Blackburn will crack under pressure and I haven't been impressed with Burnett. I have this total e~nding at 12 or 13 runs. TAKE MINNESOTA/YANKEES OVER as MARCO'S BASEBALL INSIDER GAME OF THE WEEK
Marco Rated this Play a 2 UNIT PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
double-dime bet 963 MIN / 964 NYY Over 9.5 BetUS
Analysis: PLAY: MINNESOTA/YANKEES OVER
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Look for Fireworks tonight in New York as I expect both pitchers to get knocked around. Minnesota bats were just too tired in game one but tonight it will be bombs away. Blackburn will crack under pressure and I haven't been impressed with Burnett. I have this total e~nding at 12 or 13 runs. TAKE MINNESOTA/YANKEES OVER as MARCO'S BASEBALL INSIDER GAME OF THE WEEK
Marco Rated this Play a 2 UNIT PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service
st bernadine sports advisors
lillefty -
1* bos/laa under 8.5
Yesterday in the Bonus Play , you got a sweet +150 price on the rockies as they jumped out to a big lead and then held on for dear life and a 5-4 win. I don't care how it wins "just win baby!" That puts the free pick run at 5-2 this month and 58-29-3 since the all star break.
I am releasing this one before the overnight so you can get the best #.Get this one in early as the # will go down for sure. Let's try to ride a trend hard and stick with the under 8.5 in bos/Laa game. Yesterday I took the under and most of the same principles apply here. Angels 25-7-2 to the under since sept 1st. Weaver has been lights out since the end of august. In his last 7 starts he has pitched 43.2IP and only allowed 11ER(2.28 era). he is 3-0 vs the sox the last 2 years inculding 2 gems this year. Beckett is a big game pitcher and looks to add to his 5-0 postseason record with the sox. Look for more of the same as you got yesterday. Ride the under train with the angels and the sox!! I have released 3 other plays for tomorrow early including my 3* NCAAF game of the week play(that was put up wednesday night) so you can get an early jump on the # before it goes up!!
angelo desimone - 1* Minn/NYY Over 9.5 -107 - no write up for this one
if the Randy Wood and Abats puter simulator post plays you will see a reply.
Let's make some cash for tomorrow!!
ZAGS
lillefty -
1* bos/laa under 8.5
Yesterday in the Bonus Play , you got a sweet +150 price on the rockies as they jumped out to a big lead and then held on for dear life and a 5-4 win. I don't care how it wins "just win baby!" That puts the free pick run at 5-2 this month and 58-29-3 since the all star break.
I am releasing this one before the overnight so you can get the best #.Get this one in early as the # will go down for sure. Let's try to ride a trend hard and stick with the under 8.5 in bos/Laa game. Yesterday I took the under and most of the same principles apply here. Angels 25-7-2 to the under since sept 1st. Weaver has been lights out since the end of august. In his last 7 starts he has pitched 43.2IP and only allowed 11ER(2.28 era). he is 3-0 vs the sox the last 2 years inculding 2 gems this year. Beckett is a big game pitcher and looks to add to his 5-0 postseason record with the sox. Look for more of the same as you got yesterday. Ride the under train with the angels and the sox!! I have released 3 other plays for tomorrow early including my 3* NCAAF game of the week play(that was put up wednesday night) so you can get an early jump on the # before it goes up!!
angelo desimone - 1* Minn/NYY Over 9.5 -107 - no write up for this one
if the Randy Wood and Abats puter simulator post plays you will see a reply.
Let's make some cash for tomorrow!!
ZAGS
OC dooley:
“1 UNIT” BASEBALL UPSET SHOCKER (Twins +260 at Yankees in a 6:05 eastern playoff start on TBS-TV-----------Blackburn versus Burnett): As expected the Yankees won Wednesday’s opener with relative ease against an opponent who was suffering from a “hangover”. After winning a thrilling “play in” game on Tuesday, the Twins did not arrive in New York until after 4:00 in the morning. Since they had a choice of when to start their playoff series due to having baseball’s best overall record, I do not blame the Yankees for taking full advantage of Minnesota’s mental-and-physical fatigue. But with this series going dark yesterday, Minnesota had an invaluable day to catch their collective breath. I want all of you to be aware that there is extreme danger with this selection as the Twins are in a disastrous “2-24” slide against the Yankees in New York and are 0-8 overall this campaign versus the Bronx Bombers. But the fact of the matter is that Minnesota just became the first team in baseball HISTORY to recover from a 3-game deficit with just 4 games remaining in the regular season. This is also the same Minnesota contingent that finished the regular campaign on a sizzling 17-4 overall tear. Despite going 0-for-8 so far this campaign, the Yankees were driven to the limit 3 different times where they recorded “walk off” victories against the Twins. One of the keys to any baseball underdog selection is siding with a starting pitcher who has shown ability to keep his team in the game through the late innings when anything can happen. Nick Blackburn has an outstanding SUB-TWO ERA (1.65) spanning his most recent 4 trips to the mound. What I love about Blackburn is that despite his young age he has already pitched in extreme pressure situations including last year’s “play in” game where the final score was 1-0 on the road. Of course the Yankees spent a ton of free-agent money in the offseason luring A.J. Burnett into the fold, but one could make a strong argument that he has pitched “too many” innings in 2009 and is due for a crash. For those that have followed Burnett during his career that started in Florida, he has constantly been derailed by injury including a seemingly never-ending battle with blisters. Much to my personal shock Burnett has yet to make a trip to the disabled list this year which means that his overall pitch count has been excessive. The big news in New York is that the Yankees are going with Jose Molina at catcher this evening as he has been more successful with Burnett as opposed to veteran Jorge Posada. With the light hitting Molina in tonight’s lineup I am going to take advantage and side with the big underdog. Even though the mighty Yankees won the opening game back on Wednesday, they are only 5-13 the past eighteen playoff appearances. It has been a solid DECADE since the Yankees gained a 2-0 lead in the “divisional” round of the playoffs. As mentioned earlier in this analysis these two teams did NOT play yesterday which opens the door to a massive 73-PERCENT long term handicapping situation. In the past two years Minnesota is a fabulous 27-10 with the benefit of having a day off. Despite a small payroll the Twins arguably have been one of baseball’s most successful franchise this decade where they have won 5 different playoff appearances
“1 UNIT” BASEBALL UPSET SHOCKER (Twins +260 at Yankees in a 6:05 eastern playoff start on TBS-TV-----------Blackburn versus Burnett): As expected the Yankees won Wednesday’s opener with relative ease against an opponent who was suffering from a “hangover”. After winning a thrilling “play in” game on Tuesday, the Twins did not arrive in New York until after 4:00 in the morning. Since they had a choice of when to start their playoff series due to having baseball’s best overall record, I do not blame the Yankees for taking full advantage of Minnesota’s mental-and-physical fatigue. But with this series going dark yesterday, Minnesota had an invaluable day to catch their collective breath. I want all of you to be aware that there is extreme danger with this selection as the Twins are in a disastrous “2-24” slide against the Yankees in New York and are 0-8 overall this campaign versus the Bronx Bombers. But the fact of the matter is that Minnesota just became the first team in baseball HISTORY to recover from a 3-game deficit with just 4 games remaining in the regular season. This is also the same Minnesota contingent that finished the regular campaign on a sizzling 17-4 overall tear. Despite going 0-for-8 so far this campaign, the Yankees were driven to the limit 3 different times where they recorded “walk off” victories against the Twins. One of the keys to any baseball underdog selection is siding with a starting pitcher who has shown ability to keep his team in the game through the late innings when anything can happen. Nick Blackburn has an outstanding SUB-TWO ERA (1.65) spanning his most recent 4 trips to the mound. What I love about Blackburn is that despite his young age he has already pitched in extreme pressure situations including last year’s “play in” game where the final score was 1-0 on the road. Of course the Yankees spent a ton of free-agent money in the offseason luring A.J. Burnett into the fold, but one could make a strong argument that he has pitched “too many” innings in 2009 and is due for a crash. For those that have followed Burnett during his career that started in Florida, he has constantly been derailed by injury including a seemingly never-ending battle with blisters. Much to my personal shock Burnett has yet to make a trip to the disabled list this year which means that his overall pitch count has been excessive. The big news in New York is that the Yankees are going with Jose Molina at catcher this evening as he has been more successful with Burnett as opposed to veteran Jorge Posada. With the light hitting Molina in tonight’s lineup I am going to take advantage and side with the big underdog. Even though the mighty Yankees won the opening game back on Wednesday, they are only 5-13 the past eighteen playoff appearances. It has been a solid DECADE since the Yankees gained a 2-0 lead in the “divisional” round of the playoffs. As mentioned earlier in this analysis these two teams did NOT play yesterday which opens the door to a massive 73-PERCENT long term handicapping situation. In the past two years Minnesota is a fabulous 27-10 with the benefit of having a day off. Despite a small payroll the Twins arguably have been one of baseball’s most successful franchise this decade where they have won 5 different playoff appearances
jimmy boyd
MLB | Oct 09 '09 (9:35p)
Boston Red Sox vs LAA Angels Boston Red Sox
+104 at 5dimes
3* Game 2 ALDS SMASH (TBS) on Red Sox +104
I can't see the Red Sox going away quietly after getting shut out last night, especially with Beckett on the hill. Beckett is one of the best we've ever seen in October, going 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career starts in the postseason. The Red Sox are 10-1 in Beckett's last 11 starts with 5 days of rest which tells me that he really thrives with a fresh arm. Take the Sox showing great value.
MLB | Oct 09 '09 (9:35p)
Boston Red Sox vs LAA Angels Boston Red Sox
+104 at 5dimes
3* Game 2 ALDS SMASH (TBS) on Red Sox +104
I can't see the Red Sox going away quietly after getting shut out last night, especially with Beckett on the hill. Beckett is one of the best we've ever seen in October, going 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career starts in the postseason. The Red Sox are 10-1 in Beckett's last 11 starts with 5 days of rest which tells me that he really thrives with a fresh arm. Take the Sox showing great value.
