Mike Hook | CBB Sides Fri, 01/22/10 - 7:00 PM
dime bet 829 Yale 2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 830 Brown
Analysis: Tricky, tricky College Basketball Friday. What better game than this one to describe just how tricky the Ivy League can be. The last time BOTH of these teams played was against each other last week. Brown beat Yale in Yale by a score of 75-66. Impressive win for Brown, considering they were widely considered to be the WEAKEST team in the Ivy League this year. Brown was a +5 underdog in that game last week, so clearly a nice outright win for them, and all the props in the world to them for that win. Of course, the easy thing to do would be to back Brown tonight, simply because they just won on the road at Yale by 9, and now they are only favored by -2.5?? Seems to easy right? Well you are exactly right, because that's EXACTLY what you aren't supposed to do on Freaky Friday! Look at it this way: Yale was -5 in their last game, and now they open up as +4.5 underdogs? Really, a 9.5 difference based off of 1 game? All i can do is laugh.
I've spent the last decade learning how to properly cap Ivy League Fridays. I know for a FACT that one of the strongest angles you can put your money behind in this league is the REVENGE angle. We see it all the time in this league, where teams play each other in back to back games. I've seen it countless times that whoever wins the first game, loses the next game. It's just the way it is, and that's part of the intrigue in Freaky Friday! Tonight will be more of the same.
If we break down the meeting between these 2 schools, 2 distinct things stand out to me. First, Yale was 3 for 18 from the 3 point line. That's less than 20%, and i can assure you that you aren't going to beat anybody shooting the ball that way. This team is better than that, and i would expect to AT LEAST be better than that tonight. More importantly, Brown MADE 6 more free throws than Yale even ATTEMPTED. That's going to change tonight, as i can assure you Yale will have a different game plan tonight. Much more was expected from this Yale team this year, and i simply don't see them starting 0-2 SU in conference play, especially getting swept by Brown. I fully believe this is a classic case of public perception at its finest. I called this out late last night when even bringing up the thought of Freaky Friday College Basketball.
The final point i want to make is line movement. I've watched this line nearly all day, and from all the tools i have i'm seeing nearly 2/3 of the money coming in on Brown. I expected that based off of what happened just last week between these two teams. So why then has this line DROPPED 2 points? This is one of the 2 biggest line moves of the day, which is very significant when looking at a small card to begin with. There is some serious reverse line movement taking place in this game. Heading into today, this is exactly what i was hoping we would see.
For the future, anytime you can get an Ivy league matchup where a team is on REVENGE and is being backed by REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT, you almost have to back those strong indicators EVERY TIME. This is a marathon, not a sprint. I spend a ton of my day looking for VALUE, and i know this is VALUE. Let's back Yale +2.5 tonight for our SINGLE STAR play of the day. I'm very confident that Yale wins this game OUTRIGHT. I didn't play the moneyline here simply because i know not every online book offers a moneyline play on Ivy League games. So let's just take the +2.5 across the board, and cash this play.
Thanks again for all your support. I value each and every one of you, and because of that i will continue to bust my butt to find us VALUE and in turn, $$$$.
YA GET $10 BUCKS OFF
