Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
EDMONTON OILERS +100
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Although I lost with the Oilers vs. the Canucks on Wednesday night as +180 underdogs; for a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on them once again; tonight they will finally break out of their slump as they catch a Stars team coming off a difficult road loss less than 24 hours previous:
When I handicap a game I take into account trends, a teams recent play of late, line value, among many other things; one of the biggest factors though is "situations".
Keep in mind, for every single game on the big board, all the Sports Books are trying to do is even the action, having half of the public wager on one side, and half on the other; public perception is that the Oilers suck and the Stars are a perennial favorite.
The reason this line is almost a "pick 'em" is because the oddsmakers know that Edmonton has been playing better of late and is catching a tired Dallas team that is an absolutely horrible 0-8-2 away from home since beating San Jose in a shootout Dec. 11. The Stars led 2-1 early last night, but the Canucks scored three straight goals with two coming in the third period.
“That’s been symptomatic of a lot of the games we’ve not performed well in,” said Dallas coach Marc Crawford, whose team concludes this three-game trip Sunday at Colorado. “You can look at probably 40, 45 minutes of the game where we were pleased, but when the game got on the line their level elevated and they played about 15 minutes and won.”
Crawford's return to Colorado has to be taken into consideration in this case as well as Dallas could be caught looking ahead to that matchup.
Edmonton is last in the West, and 0-7-2 since beating Toronto on Dec. 30 for the club’s worst losing streak since a 12-game skid from Feb. 25-March 21, 2007.
They'll look to break out of the slump against a shaky Marty Turco most likely; Turco is 14-13-8 with a 2.84 goals-against average, but he’s allowed 18 goals in his last five starts. Turco is 17-6-2 with a 2.34 GAA versus the Oilers — a figure that rises to 3.12 during a 1-2-2 stretch.
Alex Auld has been better than Turco, but if he is in the end called upon to start tonight, I expect the backup to be tired.
The Oilers have scored 11 goals in their last six games, but their struggles in killing penalties has been an even bigger issue recently. Over the last four games, Edmonton’s opponents have converted seven of 14 power-play chances, and all three Canucks goals came with the man advantage; expect Pat Quinn to have addressed this issue thoroughly.
Devan Dubnyk got the second star in Wednesday nights loss to Vancouver; Jeff Deslauriers may get the chance for the big win tonight; he's 9-14-3 with a 3.18 GAA this season and 1-1-0 with a 2.89 GAA all-time against Dallas.
EDMONTON finds a way to win this game! *10* [/FONT]