Lang thread
Brandon Lang
Friday's Selections ...
NOTE:
Back on November 22nd when the Colts and Ravens met in Baltimore I came with a 75 dime play on the Colts.
For all the same reasons I loved them that day is all the same reasons I love them by double digits on Saturday.
Don't be swayed by the Ravens win over the pathetic and overrated Patriots. Throw that game out.
The reasons why the Colts have beaten the Ravens 6 in a row SU and ATS is because the Ravens don't match up with them.
Now here are some more reasons why the Colts will take care of the Ravens by double digits on Saturday.
But first - why Northern Colorado is a great play tonight.
30 DIME - NORTHERN COLORADO BEARS - Keep an eye on this team come March.
They roll in here 15-3 overall, but what impresses me even more is they have played 11 games away from home already, 8 true away games and 3 neutral site games.
They have gone 8-3 SU and 6-1 ATS including wins at TCU, Air Force and a pretty impressive one point loss at Oklahoma.
Now I understand Oklahoma isn't playing very well right now but to match to keep it a one point game against their athleticism shows me this team is pretty darn good.
For the life of me I don't know how they got blown out in the 2nd half versus Montana State after trailing by 2 at the half. Quite frankly I just chalk it up to a bad half of basketball that a team can have every now and then.
Since that loss they have been absolutely fantastic winning 6 in a row and 8 of their last 10 with the only two losses to Wyoming on a neutral floor and the aforementioned Oklahoma.
Portland State has been a disappointment so far this year at 7-9 but I really believe you are getting great line value here with Northern Colorado because of the perfect 6-0 home mark of the Vikings.
However, if you look at the 5 home wins you will see the following:
A 7-10 Sacramento State team, a 6-11 Eastern Washington, a 5-10 Cal Poly SLO, and two colleges you will be hard pressed to find information on, Williamette College and Linfield College.
Courtesy of google, I found out Willamette is out of the Northwest Conference and is 3-11 and Portland State struggled to beat them 97-90.
I'm sorry folks, but I will lay any number with Northern Colorado as Will Figures has a huge game and the Bears roll large on the road and take care of business and show why they are the best team in the league tonight.
30 dime winner - NORTHERN COLORADO
100 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Peyton owns the Ravens.
Back in November he took his Colts into Baltimore and engineered a 17-15 Colts win and cover.
In that game the Ravens were driving and were in field goal range, when Flacco threw a terrible pick and Indy secured the win.
It was a weird game from the standpoint Indy was up 14-12 and going in for another touchdown early 3rd quarter when tight end Santi fumbled at the Ravens 2 yard line keeping those 7 points off the board.
The Ravens did move the ball well but settled for 5 field goals, and also missed a 30 yarder as well.
Last year he was rusty when he faced them at home in week 6 and lit them up 31-3 like it was nobody's business - and how did Joe Flacco do against Indy's cover two defense?
The Ravens only crossed into Colts territory on three of their 12 drives and turned the ball over five times.
Not enough for you, let me take you back to the 2006 season when the Ravens met the Colts in the 2nd round of the NFL playoffs in Baltimore.
Ravens were off a bye week. They had the # 2 run defense. The # 6 pass defense. The # 1 overall defense. They were ready.
Peyton Manning and the Colts won the game 15-6 on the way to their Super Bowl victory.
Let me break it down a little easier for you.
Throw out the performance of Tom Brady last week, the fact of the matter is Tom looked like he didn't want to be there as did the rest of the Patriots.
On the road at San Diego, Rivers was 25 for 45 for 421 yards and if not for a horrific 4th and 1 play call, they don't beat Philip Rivers. Aaron Rogers had a big day. Brett Favre had a big day. Rothliesberger had a big day.
The weakness of this Ravens defense is their secondary and if you don't get pressure with your blitz, your man to man coverage behind it is going to get lit up like a Christmas tree at night.
Prior to beating the Patriots last week the Ravens had only 2 road wins, the Browns and the Raiders. Most alarming is the fact if the Raiders had a Quarterback other than JaMarcus Russell, I believe the Ravens don't win that game.
Question, who is the best QB in the NFL at handling the blitz? Answer is 100% without a doubt Peyton Manning.
This is as bad a matchup for the Ravens as you can ask for, and I fully expect Peyton to do what he always does versus this Baltimore team and that is execute his offense to precision and get the win.
I am aware of the fact Indy is 0-3 in the playoffs coming off a bye week and if they were playing anybody else other than the Ravens I might be inclined to look the other way.
Fact of the matter is Ray Lewis and this Ravens defense could match wits with Peyton 100 times, and I would go with Peyton all 100, unless the Ravens made a drastic change in their defensive philosophy.
That is not happening in mine or yours lifetime.The Ravens do what they do. Blitz, and play man behind it. If you can protect and beat us.Congrats. You beat us but it still won't stop us from blitzing.
It is who they are.
Honestly, beating a team once or twice in a row, or even 3 times in a row maybe considered lucky...but 7 times in a row? With the same QB and the same basic defense this QB has seen all 7 times? My point exactly.
Do you really think the Ravens can come up with anything in this game Peyton hasn't seen from them before? And he faces them at home.
The Colts have a lot to prove today. All this talk of about sitting starters and not going for 16-0 and having to answer questions about it and defend their coach and what they did.
Bottom line is an emphatic win today at home silences everyone and trust me, behind closed doors, Indy is on a mission today to quiet the critics and with an impressive performance today announces to the NFL world we are the team to beat.
I am getting great line value with Indy laying less than a touchdown at home against a team they just flat out match up well against and I will gladly grab that value and sit back and watch the Indy machine show up and flat out get the job done.
Indy rolls by double digits Saturday night.
100 DIME - INDY
25 DIME - ARIZONA CARDINALS - (If line is 7 you buy the 1/2 to +7 1/2 if line moved down to 6 1/2 you buy up to +7. Line value with the underdog.)
I'm gonna ride them.
Could they get blown out? Absolutely but until somebody does blow them out, I will gladly grab a touchdown with a red hot playoff QB working in an offense he loves.
When you start going 29 of 33 in a playoff game against a top 3 defense, you have to take notice. Even more impressive is the fact you put up 29 of 33 without your # 2 wide receiver.
Saints just aren't the team we saw early on. Their defense isn't getting turnovers like they were earlier in the year and the reason why is they are banged up.
This game may very well come down to who has the ball last but this Cardinals bunch is a hard bunch to blow out with the offensive weapons they have.
Am I a bit concerned about their defense? Yes but understand, their defense wasn't as bad as they looked last week.
When a team gets down 3 touchdowns in the 2nd half, the game becomes a run and gun affair, the offensive game plan is out the window and everything is a scramble.
There are alarming things that force me to back the Cardinals here.
After their loss to Dallas the Saints still had to play hard to secure the home field in the NFC when they faced Tampa Bay the following week and to watch them lose that game at home 20-17 sets off warning signs to me.
The bottom line is until somebody plays well enough to cover a playoff game versus Kurt Warner and Ken Wisenhunt, I will gladly grab the value with the hot underdog and let the chips fall where they may.
I am counting on the Cardinals to win the turnover battle and if they do, chances are they win the game outright. I like my chances with Kurt Warner, indoors, on a fast track, against a suspect defense.
If Jason Campbell can have a career day against this Saints defense and Chris Redman can throw for over 300 yards on this Saints defense, I will let the good times roll with Warner.
25 dime - ARIZONA CARDINALS
FREE SELECTION - SAN ANTONIO SPURS
