Bob Valentino
FRIDAY'S 25 DIME MLB WINNER ... 25 DIME -- Red Sox-Yankees UNDER the total (with Beckett and Burnett as the starting pitchers).
NOTE #1: This is a play on the TOTAL in this game, and we're playing it UNDER the posted number, which should be no lower than 9 runs.
NOTE #2: Both Josh Beckett (Boston) and A.J. Burnett (New York) must start this game or this will be a "no play"
NOTE #3: As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more on a favorite than you have to or take back less than you can on an underdog!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND ME----GL GUYS
FRIDAY'S 25 DIME MLB WINNER ... 25 DIME -- Red Sox-Yankees UNDER the total (with Beckett and Burnett as the starting pitchers).
NOTE #1: This is a play on the TOTAL in this game, and we're playing it UNDER the posted number, which should be no lower than 9 runs.
NOTE #2: Both Josh Beckett (Boston) and A.J. Burnett (New York) must start this game or this will be a "no play"
NOTE #3: As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more on a favorite than you have to or take back less than you can on an underdog!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND ME----GL GUYS
HELMUT Bonus Play
653 Connecticut +2.5
The Lynx come into this game losing five out of their last six home games with the only win during this span coming in overtime against Washington. After the injury to Seimone Augustus the team needed someone to step in and replace her scoring and Candice Wiggens did just that scoring 20+ in three straight games and winning the WNBA player of the week honors. However in her last ten games she is shooting 33% from the field and averaging just 10.2 ppg. Part of the drop in scoring from her is due to a knee injury she is playing with which has seen her minutes reduced. I heard assistant coach Jim Peterson saying that the Lynx are using the reserves much more than the rest of the WNBA teams. My thinking is that if I’m in the middle of a playoff race I want my best players in there as much as possible. Last night Seattle played Cash, Jackson, Wright and Bird 40 minutes. I just have to wonder what is going on with this team when a player like Charde Houston who played in the all star game has not played more than 20 minutes in the last three games. The Lynx have also added Humphrey and Montanana that were cut from other teams and given these players’ significant minutes. Connecticut should start to play better now that the team is intact and at full strength and I believe they have shown that with a 5-3 record in their last eight games. The Sun are currently the WNBA’s worst shooting team but have shown improvement on offense in the last eight games shooting 42.6% from the field and averaged a offensive efficiency of 1.01. They should have success against this Lynx team that has struggled with the defense all season. The Sun are also the 2nd best team in the league on defense and have the best three point FG% defense in the league which should bode well against the Lynx who rely on a great deal of their point production from the three point shot.
653 Connecticut +2.5
The Lynx come into this game losing five out of their last six home games with the only win during this span coming in overtime against Washington. After the injury to Seimone Augustus the team needed someone to step in and replace her scoring and Candice Wiggens did just that scoring 20+ in three straight games and winning the WNBA player of the week honors. However in her last ten games she is shooting 33% from the field and averaging just 10.2 ppg. Part of the drop in scoring from her is due to a knee injury she is playing with which has seen her minutes reduced. I heard assistant coach Jim Peterson saying that the Lynx are using the reserves much more than the rest of the WNBA teams. My thinking is that if I’m in the middle of a playoff race I want my best players in there as much as possible. Last night Seattle played Cash, Jackson, Wright and Bird 40 minutes. I just have to wonder what is going on with this team when a player like Charde Houston who played in the all star game has not played more than 20 minutes in the last three games. The Lynx have also added Humphrey and Montanana that were cut from other teams and given these players’ significant minutes. Connecticut should start to play better now that the team is intact and at full strength and I believe they have shown that with a 5-3 record in their last eight games. The Sun are currently the WNBA’s worst shooting team but have shown improvement on offense in the last eight games shooting 42.6% from the field and averaged a offensive efficiency of 1.01. They should have success against this Lynx team that has struggled with the defense all season. The Sun are also the 2nd best team in the league on defense and have the best three point FG% defense in the league which should bode well against the Lynx who rely on a great deal of their point production from the three point shot.
RatedPicks
August just keeps getting hotter and hotter... so lets keep the the heat going, up over 40 units so far in August.
MLB:
MLB 08/07 Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals pick: Arizona Diamondbacks pts: +105 3 units
MLB 08/07 Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals pick: over pts: 9 2 units
MLB 08/07 Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros pick: Houston Astros pts: -135 3 units
MLB 08/07 Atlanta Braves at LA Dodgers pick: LA Dodgers pts: -1.5 (+170) 3 units
MLB 08/07 Atlanta Braves at LA Dodgers pick: LA Dodgers pts: -140 4 units
MLB 08/07 Texas Rangers at LA Angels pick: LA Angels pts: -135 3 units
August just keeps getting hotter and hotter... so lets keep the the heat going, up over 40 units so far in August.
MLB:
MLB 08/07 Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals pick: Arizona Diamondbacks pts: +105 3 units
MLB 08/07 Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals pick: over pts: 9 2 units
MLB 08/07 Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros pick: Houston Astros pts: -135 3 units
MLB 08/07 Atlanta Braves at LA Dodgers pick: LA Dodgers pts: -1.5 (+170) 3 units
MLB 08/07 Atlanta Braves at LA Dodgers pick: LA Dodgers pts: -140 4 units
MLB 08/07 Texas Rangers at LA Angels pick: LA Angels pts: -135 3 units
For any Golfers out there:
WGC Bridgestone Invitational: Tourney picks
By MATT FARGO - I'm dedicated to improving my clients ability to win
The PGA Championship starts next week but there is business to take care of this week first.
The WGC Bridgestone Invitational takes place from Akron, Ohio at the Firestone Country Club. The week leading up to a major usually sees a mediocre field, but that’s not the case this week. Since this tourney is an Invitational, all of the top players will be competing will be playing in a limited field, and there is no cut as well.
Tiger Woods (+150) did it again last week winning the Buick Open. Now he is playing a course he’s won six times, most recently in 2007.
Phil Mickelson (+1200) tees up since for the first time in seven weeks. He has six top 10s in 12 events played this season and he’s fond of Firestone too. He hasn’t won the event since 1996, but he has two runner-up finishes and placed fourth last year. Will the long layoff affect his chance to win?
Vijay Singh (+4000) is the defending champion but he’s had mixed results in 2009. The good news is that he has made the cut in four straight events and finished T7 at the AT&T National. The problem is that he only has three top tens all season and has yet to crack the top five in any tournament.
Lee Westwood (+2500) was the runner-up to Singh last year and is playing some of the best golf ever. He has only one top 10 in six events played on the PGA Tour but he has placed in the top 10 in his last three events overall. Is he a good bet to close out a lead on Sunday, though?
Hunter Mahan (+3000) took some time off following his missed cut at the Open Championship. That should rejuvenate him. Before the Open Championship, he had three straight top 10 finishes, and even though he has not won this year, he is close.
He hasn’t won since 2007 when he won the Travelers Championship but this course fits him well. He had a T10 last year, which followed a T22 in 2007. Great value play.
One player who has not had great success this year is Anthony Kim (+2500). He has only three top 10 finishes this season in 16 events played, compared to eight top 10s last season. Two of those top 10s this year have come in his last three events played. He told reporters that things are coming together for him. It would be good to see him make a late season run.
Nick Watney (T46). Brian Gay (T37) and Kevin Na (T46) struggled last weekend and stood no chance against Tiger at the Buick Open. We switch gears this week.
Recommended plays for the WGC Bridgestone Invitational:
Tiger Woods (+150) 1.5 Units
Lee Westwood (+2500) 1.5 Units
Hunter Mahan (+3000)1.5 Units
Anthony Kim (+2500) 1.5 Units
Year to date: -7 Units
***
Also, anyone see Craig Davis? He has a 100 DIME play today.
WGC Bridgestone Invitational: Tourney picks
By MATT FARGO - I'm dedicated to improving my clients ability to win
The PGA Championship starts next week but there is business to take care of this week first.
The WGC Bridgestone Invitational takes place from Akron, Ohio at the Firestone Country Club. The week leading up to a major usually sees a mediocre field, but that’s not the case this week. Since this tourney is an Invitational, all of the top players will be competing will be playing in a limited field, and there is no cut as well.
Tiger Woods (+150) did it again last week winning the Buick Open. Now he is playing a course he’s won six times, most recently in 2007.
Phil Mickelson (+1200) tees up since for the first time in seven weeks. He has six top 10s in 12 events played this season and he’s fond of Firestone too. He hasn’t won the event since 1996, but he has two runner-up finishes and placed fourth last year. Will the long layoff affect his chance to win?
Vijay Singh (+4000) is the defending champion but he’s had mixed results in 2009. The good news is that he has made the cut in four straight events and finished T7 at the AT&T National. The problem is that he only has three top tens all season and has yet to crack the top five in any tournament.
Lee Westwood (+2500) was the runner-up to Singh last year and is playing some of the best golf ever. He has only one top 10 in six events played on the PGA Tour but he has placed in the top 10 in his last three events overall. Is he a good bet to close out a lead on Sunday, though?
Hunter Mahan (+3000) took some time off following his missed cut at the Open Championship. That should rejuvenate him. Before the Open Championship, he had three straight top 10 finishes, and even though he has not won this year, he is close.
He hasn’t won since 2007 when he won the Travelers Championship but this course fits him well. He had a T10 last year, which followed a T22 in 2007. Great value play.
One player who has not had great success this year is Anthony Kim (+2500). He has only three top 10 finishes this season in 16 events played, compared to eight top 10s last season. Two of those top 10s this year have come in his last three events played. He told reporters that things are coming together for him. It would be good to see him make a late season run.
Nick Watney (T46). Brian Gay (T37) and Kevin Na (T46) struggled last weekend and stood no chance against Tiger at the Buick Open. We switch gears this week.
Recommended plays for the WGC Bridgestone Invitational:
Tiger Woods (+150) 1.5 Units
Lee Westwood (+2500) 1.5 Units
Hunter Mahan (+3000)1.5 Units
Anthony Kim (+2500) 1.5 Units
Year to date: -7 Units
***
Also, anyone see Craig Davis? He has a 100 DIME play today.
Premier Cappers
Toronto RL +125 for 3 units
The home team has dominated this series with Toronto and Baltimore with 8 of 9 going to the home team. The Pitching match up in this game is Romero (10-4 3.53 ERA) vs. Berken (1-9 6.93 ERA). I have been fading this Berken rookie for a while now he has been pitching bad and losing his games by an average of 3.5 runs a game. Romero has been the opposite for Toronto. His team has won 8 out of his last 10 starts and the important factor they are winning by more than a 2 run average in his starts. Baltimore has struggled on the road this season being 17-37 away from home and with Baltimore being 1-11 in Berken’s starts I see this as a great spot for Toronto. Baltimore is 1-5 last 6 starts vs. a left handed pitcher. Baltimore is 3-14 in their last 17 game 1 of a series and being 17-50 against the AL East their last 67 games. Toronto has not been playing great ball either but they are coming 11-5 their last 16 as favorites of –150 to –200. Baltimore is hitting .221 on the road against left handed pitchers and I see them taking advantage of a poor road team in Baltimore.
Toronto RL +125 for 3 units
The home team has dominated this series with Toronto and Baltimore with 8 of 9 going to the home team. The Pitching match up in this game is Romero (10-4 3.53 ERA) vs. Berken (1-9 6.93 ERA). I have been fading this Berken rookie for a while now he has been pitching bad and losing his games by an average of 3.5 runs a game. Romero has been the opposite for Toronto. His team has won 8 out of his last 10 starts and the important factor they are winning by more than a 2 run average in his starts. Baltimore has struggled on the road this season being 17-37 away from home and with Baltimore being 1-11 in Berken’s starts I see this as a great spot for Toronto. Baltimore is 1-5 last 6 starts vs. a left handed pitcher. Baltimore is 3-14 in their last 17 game 1 of a series and being 17-50 against the AL East their last 67 games. Toronto has not been playing great ball either but they are coming 11-5 their last 16 as favorites of –150 to –200. Baltimore is hitting .221 on the road against left handed pitchers and I see them taking advantage of a poor road team in Baltimore.
For any horse Racers:
SafestWagers
Saratoga: Fri., August 7th, 2009
We just setup shop in Saratoga, and a few things are different this
season. Most notably, the fields are huge, which means payoffs should
be large. It also means that your best chance for nice payouts will be
either straight win bets or the Pick 3's and 4's. Supers and Trifectas
will be tough.
Doubles, Pick 3's and Pick 4:
Race 7) 2/3 (If a scratch, add #1)
Race 8) 5/6/10/11 (If a scratch, condense)
Race 9) 4/5/7 (If a scratch, add #1)
Race 10) 3/5/9 (If a scratch, add #4)
Race 7) 5 Furlongs Md Sp Wt Selection: 3
# 3 Flower Exchange*
The only one with a start under her belt.
She showed early speed in last, and still managed to beat
7 others while distancing herself from the rest of the field
with the top two.
Safer Bet:
a) # 3 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 2/3 with 2/3 with all
Longshot
Race 8) 1 5/8 Miles Johns Call Stake Selection: 6
# 6 Solitaire*
We think this expensive gelding is able to prove it
at this distance against some who have been competitive
in G1 and G2 races.
Although he beat lesser in last, he looked like he had
more to give at the end, and he covered the distance in
an adequate time. He has also done well when facing
younger, but top of the class colts.
He's beaten next out winners and gets a weight advantage.
Safer Bet:
a) # 6 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Exacta Box: 5/6/10/11
c) Trifecta Box: 5/6/10/11
d) Super Box: 5/6/10/11
Race 9) 6 Furlongs Clm 60000 Selection: 5
# 5 Jet Set Vinny*
This colt only has 1 win in 8 starts but has been
competitive with some of the better ones... Quality Road,
Dunkirk, and Tizway. He gets freshened, and will benefit
from an equipment change and the speed duel up front today.
Safer Bet:
a) # 5 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Trifecta Box: 1/4/5/7
SafestWagers
Saratoga: Fri., August 7th, 2009
We just setup shop in Saratoga, and a few things are different this
season. Most notably, the fields are huge, which means payoffs should
be large. It also means that your best chance for nice payouts will be
either straight win bets or the Pick 3's and 4's. Supers and Trifectas
will be tough.
Doubles, Pick 3's and Pick 4:
Race 7) 2/3 (If a scratch, add #1)
Race 8) 5/6/10/11 (If a scratch, condense)
Race 9) 4/5/7 (If a scratch, add #1)
Race 10) 3/5/9 (If a scratch, add #4)
Race 7) 5 Furlongs Md Sp Wt Selection: 3
# 3 Flower Exchange*
The only one with a start under her belt.
She showed early speed in last, and still managed to beat
7 others while distancing herself from the rest of the field
with the top two.
Safer Bet:
a) # 3 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 2/3 with 2/3 with all
Longshot
Race 8) 1 5/8 Miles Johns Call Stake Selection: 6
# 6 Solitaire*
We think this expensive gelding is able to prove it
at this distance against some who have been competitive
in G1 and G2 races.
Although he beat lesser in last, he looked like he had
more to give at the end, and he covered the distance in
an adequate time. He has also done well when facing
younger, but top of the class colts.
He's beaten next out winners and gets a weight advantage.
Safer Bet:
a) # 6 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Exacta Box: 5/6/10/11
c) Trifecta Box: 5/6/10/11
d) Super Box: 5/6/10/11
Race 9) 6 Furlongs Clm 60000 Selection: 5
# 5 Jet Set Vinny*
This colt only has 1 win in 8 starts but has been
competitive with some of the better ones... Quality Road,
Dunkirk, and Tizway. He gets freshened, and will benefit
from an equipment change and the speed duel up front today.
Safer Bet:
a) # 5 to Win, Place or Show
Exotics:
b) Trifecta Box: 1/4/5/7
Wunderdog MLB 2009/08/07
Game: St Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 7 +110 (risk 4 to win 4.4)
Game: Milwaukee at Houston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
Game: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Seattle -125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.2)
Game: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle -1.5 runs +175 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.3)
Game: St Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 7 +110 (risk 4 to win 4.4)
Game: Milwaukee at Houston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
Game: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Seattle -125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.2)
Game: Tampa Bay at Seattle (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle -1.5 runs +175 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.3)
St Bernadines Sports
Crystal Ball on a 6-3 run
LOS ANGELES ANGELS -125 (3 Star ***)
Last night saw John Smoltz ruin what had been a very sweet run for Crystal Ball. Poor old guy really is done. As I told you, it was a pretty thin slate to choose from yesterday, which is why I stressed the importance of discipline. If there isn't a game that I REALLY like, I'm not going to send my partners into action.
Speaking of really liking............I've been as hot as this beautiful Canadian girl that just passed me in the lobby. My run has almost been as perfect as her hair, but I digress.............
As much as I can't get her out of my mind, which would lead me to take the Blue Jays, I owe my loyal legions some easy money tonight. I'm taking the LOS ANGELES ANGELS -125 to stop TEXAS at home for THREE STARS. That's right my friends, I like this one a whole bunch. Take it to the bank, this is too much to stuff under the mattress.
Remember: I don't say it, unless I play it.
Crystal Ball is out!
Crystal Ball on a 6-3 run
LOS ANGELES ANGELS -125 (3 Star ***)
Last night saw John Smoltz ruin what had been a very sweet run for Crystal Ball. Poor old guy really is done. As I told you, it was a pretty thin slate to choose from yesterday, which is why I stressed the importance of discipline. If there isn't a game that I REALLY like, I'm not going to send my partners into action.
Speaking of really liking............I've been as hot as this beautiful Canadian girl that just passed me in the lobby. My run has almost been as perfect as her hair, but I digress.............
As much as I can't get her out of my mind, which would lead me to take the Blue Jays, I owe my loyal legions some easy money tonight. I'm taking the LOS ANGELES ANGELS -125 to stop TEXAS at home for THREE STARS. That's right my friends, I like this one a whole bunch. Take it to the bank, this is too much to stuff under the mattress.
Remember: I don't say it, unless I play it.
Crystal Ball is out!
Ferringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take #904 St. Louis (-1.5, -135) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #916 San Francisco (-1.5, -140) over Cincinnati (10 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Chicago White Sox (-1.5, +100) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2-Unit Play. N.Y. Yankees (-120) over Boston (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take #923 Detroit (-110) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
Today's Totals
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Oakland at Kansas City (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Minnesota at Detroit (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Boston at N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #904 St. Louis (-1.5, -135) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #916 San Francisco (-1.5, -140) over Cincinnati (10 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Chicago White Sox (-1.5, +100) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
2-Unit Play. N.Y. Yankees (-120) over Boston (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take #923 Detroit (-110) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
Today's Totals
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Oakland at Kansas City (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Minnesota at Detroit (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Boston at N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 7)
Craig Davis
Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
100 DIME ---- GIANTS (With Lincecum) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over REDS (With Bailey)
Guys, I absolutely love today's play on the SF Giants to rout the Reds at home. You saw how strong my 30-dimer on the Yankees was last night, so just imagine what I expect the Giants to do to the Reds with Lincecum on the hill. This game could virtually be over by the 5th inning because I don't expect the Reds to score more than one run by the time this game reaches its latter stages. Tim Lincecum is, once again, on top of his game and gets an offense batting just .240 for the season. Shoot, when your best hitter is batting .267 (Brandon Phillips), you know you're in for a long night. The Reds don't hit the ball in the first place, but when they travel away from Cincinnati, they're even worse. So consider this... a team that doesn't hit the ball well in the first place goes on the road (where they hit 16 points worse) to face the defending NL Cy Young Award winner... a guy who has an ERA under 2 when pitching at AT&T Park.
I just don't smell a lot of offense from the Reds tonight, and considering that Cincy is one of the few teams that has yet to ever face Lincecum, it makes matters even worse. The first time Lincecum faces any team, he dominates them. There are only two teams from the NL remaining that Lincecum hasn't faced and one of them is Cincinnati. The other, according to my calculations, is Milwaukee... another team from the NL Central. And if you look at what Lincecum has done within that division, you'd be impressed. His career ERA vs. the Cubs is 2.55 in five starts, vs. the Cardinals it's 1.61 in four starts, vs. Houston it's 1.67 in five starts and vs. Pittsburgh it's 2.86 in three starts. I'd call that dominating a division, wouldn't you? Since the Reds don't hit the ball with a ton of power and their team average is well below the league average, I think it's safe to say Cincy is going to struggle scoring runs tonight.
Furthermore, Lincecum's ERA in August so far is 0.00 (based on his last start) and his career August ERA is 2.33. And one other startling factoid... Lincecum's ERA is 1.84 when pitching under the lights as opposed to 3.04 during the day... a full run (plus) better when pitching at night. This guy has been absolute "money" since the All Star break and I see no reason for him to slow down now. His last two outings (both at home) have seen him dominate for 17 straight innings, allowing no earned runs, 11 hits, 4 walks and 23 strikeouts. There's absolutely nothing anyone can say to me that would convince me the Reds have a chance of scoring more than a couple of runs tonight, if that.
So, do I have confidence enough in the Giants offense that they'll be able to win by at least two runs? You bet I do. Aside from the fact they hit better than Cincy and their team average is a respectable .275 at home, they have one guy (Pablo Sandoval) who could change the game all by himself. He leads the Giants in batting average (.334), home runs (17) and RBIs (67) and with one swing of the bat could put the Giants up by two or three runs. So, who does this Giants offense get to face? Does Cincy have a pitcher who is capable of shutting down this Giants offense tonight? To be honest, I don't think so.
The team ERA is a respectable 4.45, but the guy they are trotting out there tonight has been far from spectacular. Homer Bailey (2-3 7.02 ERA) has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts (15 innings) and hasn't really had a quality start since early July. The biggest problem for Bailey has been his road WHIP (1.98). For whatever reason, Bailey struggles to keep baserunners off the bases (nearly two per inning) and if that continues tonight, the Giants are going to score runs in bunches. Look at it this way... even if Bailey does put together a quality start tonight, the Giants will still get to him for a couple of runs and that should be more than enough for Lincecum.
The Reds are just 9-26 in their last 35 games overall and have fallen on hard times, dropping to last place in the NL Central division. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. teams from the NL West, 1-11 in their last 12 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-17 in Bailey's last 22 starts. The Giants, meanwhile, are 19-7 in Lincecum's last 26 starts at home, 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record and 14-6 in their last 20 Friday night games. The writing is on the wall folks, as this one won't even be close. Take the Giants on the run line as my top play of the day.
Paid & confirmed by me.
GL!
Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup
100 DIME ---- GIANTS (With Lincecum) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over REDS (With Bailey)
Guys, I absolutely love today's play on the SF Giants to rout the Reds at home. You saw how strong my 30-dimer on the Yankees was last night, so just imagine what I expect the Giants to do to the Reds with Lincecum on the hill. This game could virtually be over by the 5th inning because I don't expect the Reds to score more than one run by the time this game reaches its latter stages. Tim Lincecum is, once again, on top of his game and gets an offense batting just .240 for the season. Shoot, when your best hitter is batting .267 (Brandon Phillips), you know you're in for a long night. The Reds don't hit the ball in the first place, but when they travel away from Cincinnati, they're even worse. So consider this... a team that doesn't hit the ball well in the first place goes on the road (where they hit 16 points worse) to face the defending NL Cy Young Award winner... a guy who has an ERA under 2 when pitching at AT&T Park.
I just don't smell a lot of offense from the Reds tonight, and considering that Cincy is one of the few teams that has yet to ever face Lincecum, it makes matters even worse. The first time Lincecum faces any team, he dominates them. There are only two teams from the NL remaining that Lincecum hasn't faced and one of them is Cincinnati. The other, according to my calculations, is Milwaukee... another team from the NL Central. And if you look at what Lincecum has done within that division, you'd be impressed. His career ERA vs. the Cubs is 2.55 in five starts, vs. the Cardinals it's 1.61 in four starts, vs. Houston it's 1.67 in five starts and vs. Pittsburgh it's 2.86 in three starts. I'd call that dominating a division, wouldn't you? Since the Reds don't hit the ball with a ton of power and their team average is well below the league average, I think it's safe to say Cincy is going to struggle scoring runs tonight.
Furthermore, Lincecum's ERA in August so far is 0.00 (based on his last start) and his career August ERA is 2.33. And one other startling factoid... Lincecum's ERA is 1.84 when pitching under the lights as opposed to 3.04 during the day... a full run (plus) better when pitching at night. This guy has been absolute "money" since the All Star break and I see no reason for him to slow down now. His last two outings (both at home) have seen him dominate for 17 straight innings, allowing no earned runs, 11 hits, 4 walks and 23 strikeouts. There's absolutely nothing anyone can say to me that would convince me the Reds have a chance of scoring more than a couple of runs tonight, if that.
So, do I have confidence enough in the Giants offense that they'll be able to win by at least two runs? You bet I do. Aside from the fact they hit better than Cincy and their team average is a respectable .275 at home, they have one guy (Pablo Sandoval) who could change the game all by himself. He leads the Giants in batting average (.334), home runs (17) and RBIs (67) and with one swing of the bat could put the Giants up by two or three runs. So, who does this Giants offense get to face? Does Cincy have a pitcher who is capable of shutting down this Giants offense tonight? To be honest, I don't think so.
The team ERA is a respectable 4.45, but the guy they are trotting out there tonight has been far from spectacular. Homer Bailey (2-3 7.02 ERA) has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts (15 innings) and hasn't really had a quality start since early July. The biggest problem for Bailey has been his road WHIP (1.98). For whatever reason, Bailey struggles to keep baserunners off the bases (nearly two per inning) and if that continues tonight, the Giants are going to score runs in bunches. Look at it this way... even if Bailey does put together a quality start tonight, the Giants will still get to him for a couple of runs and that should be more than enough for Lincecum.
The Reds are just 9-26 in their last 35 games overall and have fallen on hard times, dropping to last place in the NL Central division. They are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. teams from the NL West, 1-11 in their last 12 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-17 in Bailey's last 22 starts. The Giants, meanwhile, are 19-7 in Lincecum's last 26 starts at home, 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record and 14-6 in their last 20 Friday night games. The writing is on the wall folks, as this one won't even be close. Take the Giants on the run line as my top play of the day.
Paid & confirmed by me.
GL!
Chis Jordan has 3 small plays today...
Chris Jordan Friday night sweep ...
100♦ BLUE JAYS RUN LINE (WITH Romero and Berken) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern
100♦ ROYALS (WITH Bannister and Mazzaro) -
100♦ CUBS (WITH Zambrano) -
ALSO!!
Thanks Cork, Marfa and Ironhorse for teaming up to buy picks!<><> Much Appreciated...:toast:
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Chris Jordan Friday night sweep ...
100♦ BLUE JAYS RUN LINE (WITH Romero and Berken) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern
100♦ ROYALS (WITH Bannister and Mazzaro) -
100♦ CUBS (WITH Zambrano) -
ALSO!!
Thanks Cork, Marfa and Ironhorse for teaming up to buy picks!<><> Much Appreciated...:toast:
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