ASA
Lakers at Nuggets
Pick: Under 209.5
I’m pretty confident we won’t see a 78 point fourth quarter as we did in the last game played in Denver. Going into the 4th quarter of that game the two teams had combined to score just 143 total points which had it on pace to say WAY below the posted number. In four of the five games of this series the two teams have combined for less points per game than the posted total of 209 on tonight’s game.
We mentioned in our last pick on this series (under in Game #5…winner) that the Lakers were going to focus on getting the ball inside on offense which typically means a slower paced game. That’s exactly what they did as the L.A. ‘bigs’ (Gasol, Bynum and Odom) combined to shot 50% from the field in scoring 42 points. For the game the Lakers scored 54 points in the paint and shot over 48% as a team.
Going on the road we expect the Lakers to stick to what worked so well in the last game which will keep this game from being high scoring. You can also add in the fact that the Lakers have shot just 41.5% in their last game on this court so don’t expect the Lakers to eclipse 100 points tonight.
Both defenses have played well as the Lakers are allowing just 42.9% shooting in this series while the Nuggets are allowing just 44.3% in the same five games. On the season the Nuggets allowed foes to shoot just 43.6% in Denver and they’ll put the clamps on L.A. tonight.
Ten of the last twelve meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets have stayed ‘under’ the total The Lakers have played ‘under’ in 8 of their last nine versus a Western Conference foe. We side with the ‘under’ in this game.
Lakers at Nuggets
Pick: Under 209.5
I’m pretty confident we won’t see a 78 point fourth quarter as we did in the last game played in Denver. Going into the 4th quarter of that game the two teams had combined to score just 143 total points which had it on pace to say WAY below the posted number. In four of the five games of this series the two teams have combined for less points per game than the posted total of 209 on tonight’s game.
We mentioned in our last pick on this series (under in Game #5…winner) that the Lakers were going to focus on getting the ball inside on offense which typically means a slower paced game. That’s exactly what they did as the L.A. ‘bigs’ (Gasol, Bynum and Odom) combined to shot 50% from the field in scoring 42 points. For the game the Lakers scored 54 points in the paint and shot over 48% as a team.
Going on the road we expect the Lakers to stick to what worked so well in the last game which will keep this game from being high scoring. You can also add in the fact that the Lakers have shot just 41.5% in their last game on this court so don’t expect the Lakers to eclipse 100 points tonight.
Both defenses have played well as the Lakers are allowing just 42.9% shooting in this series while the Nuggets are allowing just 44.3% in the same five games. On the season the Nuggets allowed foes to shoot just 43.6% in Denver and they’ll put the clamps on L.A. tonight.
Ten of the last twelve meetings between the Lakers and Nuggets have stayed ‘under’ the total The Lakers have played ‘under’ in 8 of their last nine versus a Western Conference foe. We side with the ‘under’ in this game.
Mark Franco
LA Lakers at Denver
Play: Over 209
Although most trends point to the under I think this game will be played at a high pace and we have seen both teams lack effort on defense. If this game gets physical we will have both teams going to the line and that should add to the point total. The over is 11-5 in the Nuggets last 16 home games.
LA Lakers at Denver
Play: Over 209
Although most trends point to the under I think this game will be played at a high pace and we have seen both teams lack effort on defense. If this game gets physical we will have both teams going to the line and that should add to the point total. The over is 11-5 in the Nuggets last 16 home games.
Joe Nelson
LA Lakers at Denver
Play: LA Lakers +5.5
Denver has a team capable of knocking out the Lakers but the opportunity was missed. Losing narrowly in games 1 and 3 will prove costly as the Lakers are back in control of this series and delivered an impressive game 5 win. Los Angeles did not shoot particularly well in game 5 including going 3-16 from 3-point range and with 16 turnovers it was far from a clean game. The Lakers delivered when it counted however and the favorite has some swagger back while catching great underdog value in game 6 at Denver. This spread has been adjusted several points from just earlier in this series and is way off the regular season numbers. The Nuggets have been a tough home team but the Lakers have been able to win in this venue. The pressure is completely back on Denver and the Nuggets have proven they are not a team that will deliver in crunch time with several costly late game mistakes already in this series. Phil Jackson also has a huge advantage over George Karl in this coaching match-up as Jackson has had many teams in this situation and Karl is best known for some of his blunders in postseason games. This has been a very evenly matched series and another close game should be expected with the underdog Lakers in a much better position to take the cash tonight.
LA Lakers at Denver
Play: LA Lakers +5.5
Denver has a team capable of knocking out the Lakers but the opportunity was missed. Losing narrowly in games 1 and 3 will prove costly as the Lakers are back in control of this series and delivered an impressive game 5 win. Los Angeles did not shoot particularly well in game 5 including going 3-16 from 3-point range and with 16 turnovers it was far from a clean game. The Lakers delivered when it counted however and the favorite has some swagger back while catching great underdog value in game 6 at Denver. This spread has been adjusted several points from just earlier in this series and is way off the regular season numbers. The Nuggets have been a tough home team but the Lakers have been able to win in this venue. The pressure is completely back on Denver and the Nuggets have proven they are not a team that will deliver in crunch time with several costly late game mistakes already in this series. Phil Jackson also has a huge advantage over George Karl in this coaching match-up as Jackson has had many teams in this situation and Karl is best known for some of his blunders in postseason games. This has been a very evenly matched series and another close game should be expected with the underdog Lakers in a much better position to take the cash tonight.
