Stephen Nover
REASON FOR PICK: I like the Nuggets to take care of business at home. This has a chance to be a Denver blowout because the Lakers have a serious fatigue issue that is magnified playing in Denver's high altitute.
The Lakers have played nearly twice as many games as the Nuggets have during the past 3 1/ 2 weeks. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are near exhaustion, especially Bryant.
The Lakers know they need to be at full strength for a Game 7 at home. That's their game to win. Los Angeles has failed to cover the past five times it has won.
The Nuggets have covered in eight of their last nine home contests.
The Nuggets have been the superior team for much of the playoffs despite being down 3-2. Certainly they are the more physical and nastier of the two teams.
This is a three-unit play on the Nuggets.
REASON FOR PICK: I like the Nuggets to take care of business at home. This has a chance to be a Denver blowout because the Lakers have a serious fatigue issue that is magnified playing in Denver's high altitute.
The Lakers have played nearly twice as many games as the Nuggets have during the past 3 1/ 2 weeks. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are near exhaustion, especially Bryant.
The Lakers know they need to be at full strength for a Game 7 at home. That's their game to win. Los Angeles has failed to cover the past five times it has won.
The Nuggets have covered in eight of their last nine home contests.
The Nuggets have been the superior team for much of the playoffs despite being down 3-2. Certainly they are the more physical and nastier of the two teams.
This is a three-unit play on the Nuggets.
Randle the Handle
Boston –1½ +1.49 over TORONTO PINNACLE
The Jays sudden skid needs no introduction, as they’re at nine losses and counting and things can’t get much worse. Yeah, they’re at home but the trouble started when they went into Boston and faced Tim Wakefield. Prior to that trip to Boston they were seeing beach balls but since facing Wakefield they’ve been seeing BB’s and aside from a 10-run outburst in their last game they had scored just 16 combined runs in eight games. What makes this so interesting is that the media has been drilling it into their minds that facing the knuckleballer completely messed up their timing. Well, they finally got their “timing” back with 10 runs on Wednesday and they’ll face the knuckleballer again. If nothing else, it’s a big psychological edge for Wakefield and a big psychological disadvantage for the Jays hitters to overcome. The Jays may break out of its funk at home but winning is so much tougher when you’re losing and this is not the best time for the Jays to run into Wakefield and the juggernaut Red Sox. Play: Boston –1½ +1.49 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.58 over NY METS (1st 5 innings) PINNACLE
Big prices are forthcoming on the Marlins all weekend long and one has to believe the Mets are a little vulnerable right now without Reyes, Beltran and Ryan Church. Reyes has always been the catalyst of this offense and the Mets record when he’s not in the line-up is not impressive at all. With those three out, David Wright is not getting as many good pitches to hit and is in the midst of a 4-19 funk. Sean West makes just his second start of the year and this guy has an outstanding arm to go along with some nasty stuff. He’s a big lefty (6’5) and features a 94-mph fastball, a circle change and a hard slider and he can throw them all for strikes. He did walk four in his major-league debut but that can be attributed to nerves. Still, he allowed just two earned runs to the Rays and struck out five. The kid can pitch and has a chance to stay at this level for years and years. Mike Pelfrey beat the Marlins on July 8, 2006, but has since gone 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA against them. Pelfrey failed to pitch past the fifth inning three times in five starts versus Florida last season, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. Win, lose or draw, the Marlins have to be considered good value and because West will likely only go five or six innings the play is the Marlins in the first five. Play: Florida +1.58 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta -½ +1.05 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings) PINNACLE
This one is all about playing against Jon Garland, a guy who looks like he’s throwing batter practice out there. Garland has about the least intimidating stuff in the majors and Chase Field does not help his cause. This is a hitter’s park where the gaps are huge and the balls carry. Garland gives up a ton of hits, he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he issues too many walks, all big factors to his current 6.99 ERA at home in five starts. In fact, over 28 frames at home he’s allowed 38 hits and five bombs, while striking out just nine and walking 13. The opposition has hit .328 off him at Chase Field and his chances of success against the Braves, or anyone else for that matter are slim at best. The Braves will very likely put up some runs here early and that’s all there is to it. Oh, Jair Jurrjens is a quality pitcher, making this the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. See ya at the cashier’s booth about 11:00 PM. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1.02 over CHICAGO (2:20 PM) PINNACLE
The Cubbies and Ted Lilly favored over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers makes no sense whatsoever. For one, L.A. is 11-3 against southpaws, they’re 34-15 overall, they’ve won five in a row on the road including yesterday’s opener and they’ve now won eight of its past nine away from Chavez Ravine. It gets better. Billingsley is a monster, who has been lights out all year. In fact, the team is 8-2 when he starts and he comes in here with a 1.63 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dropped nine of 11 and they’ve scored two runs or less in seven of its last 10 games. Lilly can be effective for sure, as his 1.29 home ERA will attest to. However, he’s 1-2 over his last three starts with a 5.19 ERA and in no way in a million years does he have an edge over Billingsley. Call me crazy but this is a must bet at this price, as both Billingsley and the Dodgers are the straight goods while the Cubbies can’t get out of its own way right now. Play: Los Angeles –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Boston –1½ +1.49 over TORONTO PINNACLE
The Jays sudden skid needs no introduction, as they’re at nine losses and counting and things can’t get much worse. Yeah, they’re at home but the trouble started when they went into Boston and faced Tim Wakefield. Prior to that trip to Boston they were seeing beach balls but since facing Wakefield they’ve been seeing BB’s and aside from a 10-run outburst in their last game they had scored just 16 combined runs in eight games. What makes this so interesting is that the media has been drilling it into their minds that facing the knuckleballer completely messed up their timing. Well, they finally got their “timing” back with 10 runs on Wednesday and they’ll face the knuckleballer again. If nothing else, it’s a big psychological edge for Wakefield and a big psychological disadvantage for the Jays hitters to overcome. The Jays may break out of its funk at home but winning is so much tougher when you’re losing and this is not the best time for the Jays to run into Wakefield and the juggernaut Red Sox. Play: Boston –1½ +1.49 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.58 over NY METS (1st 5 innings) PINNACLE
Big prices are forthcoming on the Marlins all weekend long and one has to believe the Mets are a little vulnerable right now without Reyes, Beltran and Ryan Church. Reyes has always been the catalyst of this offense and the Mets record when he’s not in the line-up is not impressive at all. With those three out, David Wright is not getting as many good pitches to hit and is in the midst of a 4-19 funk. Sean West makes just his second start of the year and this guy has an outstanding arm to go along with some nasty stuff. He’s a big lefty (6’5) and features a 94-mph fastball, a circle change and a hard slider and he can throw them all for strikes. He did walk four in his major-league debut but that can be attributed to nerves. Still, he allowed just two earned runs to the Rays and struck out five. The kid can pitch and has a chance to stay at this level for years and years. Mike Pelfrey beat the Marlins on July 8, 2006, but has since gone 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA against them. Pelfrey failed to pitch past the fifth inning three times in five starts versus Florida last season, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. Win, lose or draw, the Marlins have to be considered good value and because West will likely only go five or six innings the play is the Marlins in the first five. Play: Florida +1.58 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta -½ +1.05 over ARIZONA (1st 5 innings) PINNACLE
This one is all about playing against Jon Garland, a guy who looks like he’s throwing batter practice out there. Garland has about the least intimidating stuff in the majors and Chase Field does not help his cause. This is a hitter’s park where the gaps are huge and the balls carry. Garland gives up a ton of hits, he’s not a strikeout pitcher and he issues too many walks, all big factors to his current 6.99 ERA at home in five starts. In fact, over 28 frames at home he’s allowed 38 hits and five bombs, while striking out just nine and walking 13. The opposition has hit .328 off him at Chase Field and his chances of success against the Braves, or anyone else for that matter are slim at best. The Braves will very likely put up some runs here early and that’s all there is to it. Oh, Jair Jurrjens is a quality pitcher, making this the biggest pitching mismatch on the board. See ya at the cashier’s booth about 11:00 PM. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1.02 over CHICAGO (2:20 PM) PINNACLE
The Cubbies and Ted Lilly favored over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers makes no sense whatsoever. For one, L.A. is 11-3 against southpaws, they’re 34-15 overall, they’ve won five in a row on the road including yesterday’s opener and they’ve now won eight of its past nine away from Chavez Ravine. It gets better. Billingsley is a monster, who has been lights out all year. In fact, the team is 8-2 when he starts and he comes in here with a 1.63 road ERA. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dropped nine of 11 and they’ve scored two runs or less in seven of its last 10 games. Lilly can be effective for sure, as his 1.29 home ERA will attest to. However, he’s 1-2 over his last three starts with a 5.19 ERA and in no way in a million years does he have an edge over Billingsley. Call me crazy but this is a must bet at this price, as both Billingsley and the Dodgers are the straight goods while the Cubbies can’t get out of its own way right now. Play: Los Angeles –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Jack Jones
15* Pittsburgh Pirates -131 over Houston Astros
Houston has lost seven straight games so laying this small number at home doesn't look like a problem to me. Brian Moehler has made three starts on the road this year and has given up 10 runs in 12.3 innings. Ross Ohlendorf has given up just 8 runs on 18 hits in 24 innings at home this year, good for a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Houston's offense is horrible with only 3 runs per game over the last seven and 3.9 runs per game against right-handers. Lay the small number here
15* Pittsburgh Pirates -131 over Houston Astros
Houston has lost seven straight games so laying this small number at home doesn't look like a problem to me. Brian Moehler has made three starts on the road this year and has given up 10 runs in 12.3 innings. Ross Ohlendorf has given up just 8 runs on 18 hits in 24 innings at home this year, good for a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Houston's offense is horrible with only 3 runs per game over the last seven and 3.9 runs per game against right-handers. Lay the small number here
Demarco
Friday's Play
5 Dime - Denver Nuggets
In Game Four on Monday in Denver, the Nuggets outrebounded LA 58-40, outscored the Lakers by 18 in the paint, and rolled to a 19-point win despite Carmelo Anthony scoring just 15 points and missing 17-of-24 three-point attempts.
In Game Five on Wednesday in Los Angeles, the Nuggets still outrebounded LA 43-42, but they got outscored in the paint 54-36 and lost by nine despite watching Kobe Bryant score just 22 points.
The big difference in the two contests was in Game Five Denver couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, missing 11 consecutive shots at one point as LA rallied from a seven-point deficit and took control of the game with a 23-5 run that bridged the third and fourth quarters. And it didn't help that the Nuggets were awful once more from beyond the arc, again missing 17-of-24 three-pointers launched.
The other difference was in the way the contest was officiated. In Game Four at Denver, the Lakers were flagged for 31 fouls versus 24 for the Nuggets. But in Game Five at the Staples Center, LA got the benefit of the homecourt advantage as Denver was whistled for 30 personals, eight more than the Lakers.
Phil Jackson moaned about the perceived inequality of officiating after Game Four. It was George Karl's turn to question the disparity after Game Five. Don't be surprised to see a looser game called tonight as the officials let both teams play. And that would give the Nuggets - who want and need to get out on the break in transition at every opportunity - the advantage. That would once again open up the outside for their three-point shooting and get Chauncey Billups, who took just two shots in the fourth quarter of Game Five, more involved in the offense.
In the regular season meetings, Denver was consistently hammered on the boards by the Lakers, but this series has seen the Nuggets - especially Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Nene and Chris Andersen - attack the glass. Their collective effort has put a damper on LA's fastbreak opportunities.
Denver should be up 3-2 in this series rather than facing elimination tonight, but its Game One meltdown has left them in a do-or-die situation. But as I've written many times in my blog over the past couple of weeks, the Lakers have repeatedly failed to take advantage of opportunities to put their opponents away on the road. Remember Games Four and Six at Houston in the second round? Or even Game Four of this series?
The oddsmakers know the public is going to be on Denver tonight; thus the heavy price you're paying. But this game goes either one of two ways: the Nuggets roll in a double-digit blowout or they lose outright. I chose the former.
As for the price, buy a little insurance. If you've got Denver -5, buy down the 1/2 point to make the Nuggets a 4 1/2 point chalk so you get the win should they prevail only by five.
If you've got Denver -5 1/2, buy down to -5 so you get the push should the Nuggets only win by five points.
If for some reason you're left with -6, despite price-shopping, buy down to -5 1/2 so you get the win should the Nuggets prevail by six.
Friday's Play
5 Dime - Denver Nuggets
In Game Four on Monday in Denver, the Nuggets outrebounded LA 58-40, outscored the Lakers by 18 in the paint, and rolled to a 19-point win despite Carmelo Anthony scoring just 15 points and missing 17-of-24 three-point attempts.
In Game Five on Wednesday in Los Angeles, the Nuggets still outrebounded LA 43-42, but they got outscored in the paint 54-36 and lost by nine despite watching Kobe Bryant score just 22 points.
The big difference in the two contests was in Game Five Denver couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, missing 11 consecutive shots at one point as LA rallied from a seven-point deficit and took control of the game with a 23-5 run that bridged the third and fourth quarters. And it didn't help that the Nuggets were awful once more from beyond the arc, again missing 17-of-24 three-pointers launched.
The other difference was in the way the contest was officiated. In Game Four at Denver, the Lakers were flagged for 31 fouls versus 24 for the Nuggets. But in Game Five at the Staples Center, LA got the benefit of the homecourt advantage as Denver was whistled for 30 personals, eight more than the Lakers.
Phil Jackson moaned about the perceived inequality of officiating after Game Four. It was George Karl's turn to question the disparity after Game Five. Don't be surprised to see a looser game called tonight as the officials let both teams play. And that would give the Nuggets - who want and need to get out on the break in transition at every opportunity - the advantage. That would once again open up the outside for their three-point shooting and get Chauncey Billups, who took just two shots in the fourth quarter of Game Five, more involved in the offense.
In the regular season meetings, Denver was consistently hammered on the boards by the Lakers, but this series has seen the Nuggets - especially Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Nene and Chris Andersen - attack the glass. Their collective effort has put a damper on LA's fastbreak opportunities.
Denver should be up 3-2 in this series rather than facing elimination tonight, but its Game One meltdown has left them in a do-or-die situation. But as I've written many times in my blog over the past couple of weeks, the Lakers have repeatedly failed to take advantage of opportunities to put their opponents away on the road. Remember Games Four and Six at Houston in the second round? Or even Game Four of this series?
The oddsmakers know the public is going to be on Denver tonight; thus the heavy price you're paying. But this game goes either one of two ways: the Nuggets roll in a double-digit blowout or they lose outright. I chose the former.
As for the price, buy a little insurance. If you've got Denver -5, buy down the 1/2 point to make the Nuggets a 4 1/2 point chalk so you get the win should they prevail only by five.
If you've got Denver -5 1/2, buy down to -5 so you get the push should the Nuggets only win by five points.
If for some reason you're left with -6, despite price-shopping, buy down to -5 1/2 so you get the win should the Nuggets prevail by six.
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Steven Budin-CEO
FRIDAY'S PICK CALI-CARTEL
25 DIME RELEASE
Denver Nuggets
Note from Steve Budin:
As I release this selection from the Cali-Cartel, I see the line on this game is anywhere from Denver -5 to -5 1/2.
If you have -5 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point to Denver -5 so you get at least a push should the Nuggets only win by five points.
If you have -5, buy down the 1/2 point to Denver -4 1/2 so you get a win should the Nuggets only win by five points.
If this line increases - or you get stuck with Denver at -6 despite shopping around - you would still buy down the 1/2 point to make the Nuggets a 5 1/2 point favorite, guaranteeing a win should they prevail only by six points.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
FRIDAY'S PICK CALI-CARTEL
25 DIME RELEASE
Denver Nuggets
Note from Steve Budin:
As I release this selection from the Cali-Cartel, I see the line on this game is anywhere from Denver -5 to -5 1/2.
If you have -5 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point to Denver -5 so you get at least a push should the Nuggets only win by five points.
If you have -5, buy down the 1/2 point to Denver -4 1/2 so you get a win should the Nuggets only win by five points.
If this line increases - or you get stuck with Denver at -6 despite shopping around - you would still buy down the 1/2 point to make the Nuggets a 5 1/2 point favorite, guaranteeing a win should they prevail only by six points.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry: we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in these cases.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS
Robert Ferringo
Take L.A. Angels (-170) over Seattle
Take L.A. Angels (-1.5, +115) over Seattle
Take Philadelphia (-160) over Washington
Take N.Y. Mets (-165) over Florida
Take Texas (-105) over Oakland
If game one loses
Take Texas (-150) over Oakland
Take Milwaukee (+105) over Cincinnati
Take San Diego (+115) over Colorado
Take St. Louis (+110) over San Francisco
Take Detroit (+110) over Baltimore
Take L.A. Angels (-170) over Seattle
Take L.A. Angels (-1.5, +115) over Seattle
Take Philadelphia (-160) over Washington
Take N.Y. Mets (-165) over Florida
Take Texas (-105) over Oakland
If game one loses
Take Texas (-150) over Oakland
Take Milwaukee (+105) over Cincinnati
Take San Diego (+115) over Colorado
Take St. Louis (+110) over San Francisco
Take Detroit (+110) over Baltimore
