<TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 2500 Dime High Roller </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr752_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_752 -->Atlanta Hawks (182) at Miami Heat (-5') - 8:05 p.m. EST
This series is going seven games folks as the Heat will score a blowout Game 6 win tonight at home, where they have covered seven of their last 10 overall and 13 of their last 17 versus the Hawks. Atlanta, already utilizing a thin bench, will be without a healthy Al Horford (ankle), but more importantly, the Hawks have pissed the Heat off. Whether it be Josh Smith show-boating on a missed dunk, Mario West celebrating an end of the first half defensive stop against Dwyane Wade like he'd won the NBA title or even the Hawks play-by-play announcer Steve Holman mocking Wade and his teammates, this Miami team is hot mad. Much like their game 3 blowout at home, Miami will come out smoking from the opening tip and blast Atlanta (1-5 ATS as a dog), which outside of Game 5, has done very little on the road this year or on the highway in recent postseasons. Wade and Miami in a rout by at least 15 points.
MIAMI HEAT (-5') 2500 Dime High Roller
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner #1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr799_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_799 -->
Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Duke') - 7:05 p.m. EST
Bounce back win for the Pirates who just got swept at Milwaukee (18th straight losses at Miller Park!). Zach Duke (3-1, 2.43) is pitching well and has gone at least six innings in all four starts. The Reds averaged just 2.3 runs in six games and PNC Park and Bronson Arroyo (6.48 ERA this year) was most recently rocked by the Braves. Bucs win.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Duke) (-135) 100 Dimes
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner #2 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr786_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_786 -->
Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) at Texas (Feldman) - 8:05 p.m. EST
This one stays under tonight in Arlington. The Sox are struggling big time to score and are missing Jim Thome in the middle of the lineup. They do have Mark Buehrle (3-0, 3.00), who is 10-3 with a 2.84 lifetime against the Rangers, who will be minus Josh Hamilton's bat tonight. Scott Feldman gave up one run in five innings at Baltimore last start and has a 3.72 ERA in his career versus the Sox. This total is too high and it stays low.
UNDER (11) (-110) 100 Dimes
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner #3 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr754_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_754 -->
San Diego Padres (Peavy) at L.A. Dodgers (Kershaw) - 10:10 p.m. EST
The Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 7.29) has been hit hard his past two starts while the Padres Jake Peavy (2-3, 5.74) has hardly been his dominant self. L.A. is playing great at home (7-0) and are one of the top hitting teams in the league. This total is too low and this game goes over the posted price tonight.
OVER (8) (-110) 100 Dimes
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY UMAN AND MYSELF-----------GL GUYS
hno:
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This series is going seven games folks as the Heat will score a blowout Game 6 win tonight at home, where they have covered seven of their last 10 overall and 13 of their last 17 versus the Hawks. Atlanta, already utilizing a thin bench, will be without a healthy Al Horford (ankle), but more importantly, the Hawks have pissed the Heat off. Whether it be Josh Smith show-boating on a missed dunk, Mario West celebrating an end of the first half defensive stop against Dwyane Wade like he'd won the NBA title or even the Hawks play-by-play announcer Steve Holman mocking Wade and his teammates, this Miami team is hot mad. Much like their game 3 blowout at home, Miami will come out smoking from the opening tip and blast Atlanta (1-5 ATS as a dog), which outside of Game 5, has done very little on the road this year or on the highway in recent postseasons. Wade and Miami in a rout by at least 15 points.
MIAMI HEAT (-5') 2500 Dime High Roller
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner #1 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr799_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_799 -->
Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Duke') - 7:05 p.m. EST
Bounce back win for the Pirates who just got swept at Milwaukee (18th straight losses at Miller Park!). Zach Duke (3-1, 2.43) is pitching well and has gone at least six innings in all four starts. The Reds averaged just 2.3 runs in six games and PNC Park and Bronson Arroyo (6.48 ERA this year) was most recently rocked by the Braves. Bucs win.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Duke) (-135) 100 Dimes
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner #2 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr786_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_786 -->
Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) at Texas (Feldman) - 8:05 p.m. EST
This one stays under tonight in Arlington. The Sox are struggling big time to score and are missing Jim Thome in the middle of the lineup. They do have Mark Buehrle (3-0, 3.00), who is 10-3 with a 2.84 lifetime against the Rangers, who will be minus Josh Hamilton's bat tonight. Scott Feldman gave up one run in five innings at Baltimore last start and has a 3.72 ERA in his career versus the Sox. This total is too high and it stays low.
UNDER (11) (-110) 100 Dimes
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<!-- End_Module_786 -->
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner #3 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr754_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_754 -->
San Diego Padres (Peavy) at L.A. Dodgers (Kershaw) - 10:10 p.m. EST
The Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 7.29) has been hit hard his past two starts while the Padres Jake Peavy (2-3, 5.74) has hardly been his dominant self. L.A. is playing great at home (7-0) and are one of the top hitting teams in the league. This total is too low and this game goes over the posted price tonight.
OVER (8) (-110) 100 Dimes
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY UMAN AND MYSELF-----------GL GUYS
hno:</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Yankee Capper Comps
TODAY'S Bonus Plays (Bonus Plays 2-3 Thursday)
NHL
Anaheim/Detroit o5.5
NBA
Atlanta/Miami o182.5
MLB
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh o8.5
LA Angels/NY Yankees u10
Colorado/San Francisco o8.5
TODAY'S Bonus Plays (Bonus Plays 2-3 Thursday)
NHL
Anaheim/Detroit o5.5
NBA
Atlanta/Miami o182.5
MLB
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh o8.5
LA Angels/NY Yankees u10
Colorado/San Francisco o8.5
Yankee Capper Premium MLB Play 1 of 7
He has 7 baseball plays today, if anyone sees them. Here is one of them I picked up, paid and confirmed. GL all!
MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
Friday, May 1st * 7:05pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Smash your book today! Guaranteed Grand Slam Plays Win or they're FREE!
MLB Plays on 8-3 Run Since Saturday, Season hitting 53%
PITTSBURGH PIRATES -130
He has 7 baseball plays today, if anyone sees them. Here is one of them I picked up, paid and confirmed. GL all!
MLB GUARANTEED GRAND SLAM
Friday, May 1st * 7:05pm EST
$15 - GUARANTEED TO WIN OR YOUR MONEY BACK
Smash your book today! Guaranteed Grand Slam Plays Win or they're FREE!
MLB Plays on 8-3 Run Since Saturday, Season hitting 53%
PITTSBURGH PIRATES -130
SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:
NHL PLAYOFFS SECOND ROUND PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Money Line
Carolina
BOSTON -200 (1)
Anaheim
DETROIT -230 (2)
OVER/UNDER
Carolina / Boston OVER 5 ½ (1)
Anaheim / Detroit UNDER 5 ½ (2)
Puck Line
ANAHEIM +1 ½ at -140 (1)
Detroit
Carolina
BOSTON -1 ½ at +155 (2)
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NHL PLAYOFFS SECOND ROUND PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Money Line
Carolina
BOSTON -200 (1)
Anaheim
DETROIT -230 (2)
OVER/UNDER
Carolina / Boston OVER 5 ½ (1)
Anaheim / Detroit UNDER 5 ½ (2)
Puck Line
ANAHEIM +1 ½ at -140 (1)
Detroit
Carolina
BOSTON -1 ½ at +155 (2)
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SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:
MLB PAY PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Houston (Hampton)
ATLANTA (LOWE) -165 (1)
Florida (Taylor)
CUBS (HARDEN) -270 (2)
Baltimore (Hendrickson)
TORONTO (HALLADAY) -250 (3)
Colorado (Jimenez)
SAN FRANCISCO (JOHNSON) -110 (4)
ANGELS (WEAVER) +142 (5)
Yankees (Pettitte)
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY) +125 (6)
Dodgers (Kershaw)
METS (PELFREY) +105 (7)
Philadelphia (Park)
ST. LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) +112 (8)
Washington (Zimmerman)
BOSTON (MASTERSON) -120 (9)
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine)
Cincinnati (Arroyo)
PITTSBURGH (DUKE) -127 (10)
Oakland (Eveland)
SEATTLE (SILVA) -105 (11)
Kansas City (Ponson)
MINNESOTA (SLOWEY) -170 (12)
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
MLB PAY PICKS FOR FRIDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Houston (Hampton)
ATLANTA (LOWE) -165 (1)
Florida (Taylor)
CUBS (HARDEN) -270 (2)
Baltimore (Hendrickson)
TORONTO (HALLADAY) -250 (3)
Colorado (Jimenez)
SAN FRANCISCO (JOHNSON) -110 (4)
ANGELS (WEAVER) +142 (5)
Yankees (Pettitte)
SAN DIEGO (PEAVY) +125 (6)
Dodgers (Kershaw)
METS (PELFREY) +105 (7)
Philadelphia (Park)
ST. LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) +112 (8)
Washington (Zimmerman)
BOSTON (MASTERSON) -120 (9)
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine)
Cincinnati (Arroyo)
PITTSBURGH (DUKE) -127 (10)
Oakland (Eveland)
SEATTLE (SILVA) -105 (11)
Kansas City (Ponson)
MINNESOTA (SLOWEY) -170 (12)
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Late Phone selection from Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports
At 7:38 PM EST on Friday, our Insider Baseball Bash is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox listing both pitchers Andy Sonnanstine and Justin Masterson, These two AL rivals began a four-game weekend series on Thursday with the Rays pounding Josh Beckett and the Bosox 13-0 behind a one-hitter from starting pitcher Matt Garza. The Rays began the season defending the American League Pennant by taking two-of-three from Boston. Since then, Tampa Bay has struggled while the Red Sox heated up and embarked on a ten-game winning streak. They both entered this series Thursday night with Boston 6 1/2 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the AL East standings. After Thursday's game, Boston stands at 14-8 while the Rays are now 9-14. Perhaps the spotlight of playing the Red Sox is what Tampa Bay needs to recapture the success of last year. Said Tampa Bay reliever J.P. Howell about facing Boston: "You don’t want to build it up, but it is what it is, it’s playing the Red Sox ... It’s on, man. Obviously, they’re on a hot streak and we’re battling, but at the same time it takes a good, solid game to get a nice roll going.” The 13-0 destruction in Game One of this series is a good start for the Rays -- maybe Howell is on to something and it is "on" after all. They roughed up Boston ace Josh Beckett for 7 runs in just 4 2/3 innings. The Red Sox bullpen used four pitchers to complete that last 3 1/3 innings -- which will not be helpful if Boston needs to use their bullpen Friday night. Despite the basic initial pitching stats, we think the pitching matchup favors the Rays Friday night. Boston sends out spot starter Justin Masterson who sports a 2-0 record with a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Masterson is a quality pitcher out of the bullpen but has never proven himself to be a consistently reliable starter. Now for the Red Sox, he is being asked to make his third straight start. Two problems for Masterson in this game. First, historically, he struggles against the Rays: in four appearances (and two starts) he has allowed 9 earned runs, 10 walks and 2 homeruns. Furthermore, Masterson's two starts this year were home at Fenway Park. On the road this season, Masterson has pitched 5 innings of relief with a 5.40 ERA, a WHIP of 1.40 and opponents are hitting .300 against him. Look for Masterson to get hit pretty hard tonight -- but even if he pitches well, this converted middle reliever will not pitch deep into the game and will need help from a bullpen that logged significant work the night before. The Rays will send out Andy Sonnanstine to the hill. Sonnanstine is a craftsman on the mound with four distinct pitches and varying speeds within each of them. Sonnanstine's creed is to throw strikes and let his defense do the work for him. However, Sonnanstine has started out of the gate slow with a 7.78 ERA and 1.83 WHIP so far in 2009. In Sonnanstine's last start at Oakland, he was pushed around by the A's for seven runs and ten hits in just four innings. Frequently, pitchers -- whether outstanding or even just mediocre -- are more effective in their next outing after getting rocked in their previous start and not making it out of the 5th inning. Psychologically, it makes sense that pitchers coming off a bad outing become extra focused and intent on "righting their" ship so to speak. They need to get their pitchers statistics back down. They need to justify their spot in the rotation. This usually results with the pitcher taking part in more focused pitching sessions and more specific work with their pitching coach and catcher. Furthermore, because the pitcher did not pitch as many innings as usual, they20do benefit from the lower pitch count when they do come back to pitch again. We expect Sonnanstine to really focus on pitching better in this outing given his slow start and his own words confirm this conviction. Said Sonnanstine after his last start: "It's tough ... It's an embarrassing start. It's something I'm going to have to get through, and hopefully I'll feel a lot better next time out.'' Sonnanstine has the extra pressure of having to worry about the young phenom David Price breathing down his neck. While Price is still pitching in the minor leagues, there is little question that he is ready for the bigs -- he served as the Rays closer out of the pen for the playoffs and World Series after being called up from the minors in September. If it were not for the bonuses that would have been triggered in his contract if Price started in the majors in April, there is little doubt that he would already be in the rotation. Now that we have entered May, those bonuses are negated (just as they were for the Rays' May call-up last year with budding superstar Evan Longoria), so it should be a matter of days before Price enters the Rays starting rotation. Sonnanstine may be literally pitching for his job. And, yes, while his ERA and WHIP are bad right now, a deeper look into the numbers reveals a more complicated story. A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is .290. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to lower. Sonnanstine currently has a BABIP of .397 this season which is very high and "unlucky" given how much of his pitching strategy is to induce groundballs. What this tells us is that Sonnanstine has been unfortunate in that many of the balls he allowed in play are not being hit towards Tampa Bay fielders. He should not to expect that trend to continue since that is a bit a function of luck regarding where the defense is positioned -- which, of course, will then decrease the number of hits he allows as well as then the number of runs he allows. Sonnanstine is a solid pitcher given his 13-9 record with a 1.29 WHIP in 2008. And, he pitched extremely well against Boston last year as he allowed only two unearned runs in thirteen innings in his two starts versus the Red Sox in the heart of the pennant race last September. There are many intangibles to suggest he will pitch well against Boston Friday night. While the Red Sox are hitting .284 overall this season, this number drops to .254 when they bat outside their friendly confines of Fenway Park. And, Boston struggles in domed stadiums as they are just 4-13 against the money line (-10.3 units) over the last two seasons when they play in domes. Tampa Bay thrives in domed stadiums as they are 65-35 against the money line (+21.5 units) in domes over the last two seasons. Overall, Tampa Bay has a 60-25 home winning streak and their fans should be very fired up for this Friday night matchup with the rival Red Sox. Finally, there is a 67% system (+57.8 units) with over 150 samples over the last five seasons that looks to play against road teams in the +/- 125 money line range if they are sending up a starting pitcher who gave up one run or less in his last outing (as Masterson did) versus an opposing pitcher who has an ERA of 7.00 or higher over the last three starts. This historical trend for the struggling home pitcher to rebound at home while the road pitcher to not maintain the effectiveness from his previous outing is very consistent with our specific breakdown of Sonnanstine and Masterson in this game. As baseball in May kicks in, we have the opportunity to play the defending American League Champion as (of this writing) a +110 pick on the money line at home against a Boston pitcher not named Beckett, Dice-K or Lester. This game offers us great value to back a very good ballclub in the Rays looking to prove itself against Boston while providing a favorable pitching matchup. MLB Hollywood Insider Baseball Bash on the Tampa Bay Rays with the money line over the Boston Red Sox -- listing both pitchers Justin Masterson and Andy Sonnanstine.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
At 7:38 PM EST on Friday, our Insider Baseball Bash is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox listing both pitchers Andy Sonnanstine and Justin Masterson, These two AL rivals began a four-game weekend series on Thursday with the Rays pounding Josh Beckett and the Bosox 13-0 behind a one-hitter from starting pitcher Matt Garza. The Rays began the season defending the American League Pennant by taking two-of-three from Boston. Since then, Tampa Bay has struggled while the Red Sox heated up and embarked on a ten-game winning streak. They both entered this series Thursday night with Boston 6 1/2 games ahead of Tampa Bay in the AL East standings. After Thursday's game, Boston stands at 14-8 while the Rays are now 9-14. Perhaps the spotlight of playing the Red Sox is what Tampa Bay needs to recapture the success of last year. Said Tampa Bay reliever J.P. Howell about facing Boston: "You don’t want to build it up, but it is what it is, it’s playing the Red Sox ... It’s on, man. Obviously, they’re on a hot streak and we’re battling, but at the same time it takes a good, solid game to get a nice roll going.” The 13-0 destruction in Game One of this series is a good start for the Rays -- maybe Howell is on to something and it is "on" after all. They roughed up Boston ace Josh Beckett for 7 runs in just 4 2/3 innings. The Red Sox bullpen used four pitchers to complete that last 3 1/3 innings -- which will not be helpful if Boston needs to use their bullpen Friday night. Despite the basic initial pitching stats, we think the pitching matchup favors the Rays Friday night. Boston sends out spot starter Justin Masterson who sports a 2-0 record with a 2.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Masterson is a quality pitcher out of the bullpen but has never proven himself to be a consistently reliable starter. Now for the Red Sox, he is being asked to make his third straight start. Two problems for Masterson in this game. First, historically, he struggles against the Rays: in four appearances (and two starts) he has allowed 9 earned runs, 10 walks and 2 homeruns. Furthermore, Masterson's two starts this year were home at Fenway Park. On the road this season, Masterson has pitched 5 innings of relief with a 5.40 ERA, a WHIP of 1.40 and opponents are hitting .300 against him. Look for Masterson to get hit pretty hard tonight -- but even if he pitches well, this converted middle reliever will not pitch deep into the game and will need help from a bullpen that logged significant work the night before. The Rays will send out Andy Sonnanstine to the hill. Sonnanstine is a craftsman on the mound with four distinct pitches and varying speeds within each of them. Sonnanstine's creed is to throw strikes and let his defense do the work for him. However, Sonnanstine has started out of the gate slow with a 7.78 ERA and 1.83 WHIP so far in 2009. In Sonnanstine's last start at Oakland, he was pushed around by the A's for seven runs and ten hits in just four innings. Frequently, pitchers -- whether outstanding or even just mediocre -- are more effective in their next outing after getting rocked in their previous start and not making it out of the 5th inning. Psychologically, it makes sense that pitchers coming off a bad outing become extra focused and intent on "righting their" ship so to speak. They need to get their pitchers statistics back down. They need to justify their spot in the rotation. This usually results with the pitcher taking part in more focused pitching sessions and more specific work with their pitching coach and catcher. Furthermore, because the pitcher did not pitch as many innings as usual, they20do benefit from the lower pitch count when they do come back to pitch again. We expect Sonnanstine to really focus on pitching better in this outing given his slow start and his own words confirm this conviction. Said Sonnanstine after his last start: "It's tough ... It's an embarrassing start. It's something I'm going to have to get through, and hopefully I'll feel a lot better next time out.'' Sonnanstine has the extra pressure of having to worry about the young phenom David Price breathing down his neck. While Price is still pitching in the minor leagues, there is little question that he is ready for the bigs -- he served as the Rays closer out of the pen for the playoffs and World Series after being called up from the minors in September. If it were not for the bonuses that would have been triggered in his contract if Price started in the majors in April, there is little doubt that he would already be in the rotation. Now that we have entered May, those bonuses are negated (just as they were for the Rays' May call-up last year with budding superstar Evan Longoria), so it should be a matter of days before Price enters the Rays starting rotation. Sonnanstine may be literally pitching for his job. And, yes, while his ERA and WHIP are bad right now, a deeper look into the numbers reveals a more complicated story. A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is .290. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to lower. Sonnanstine currently has a BABIP of .397 this season which is very high and "unlucky" given how much of his pitching strategy is to induce groundballs. What this tells us is that Sonnanstine has been unfortunate in that many of the balls he allowed in play are not being hit towards Tampa Bay fielders. He should not to expect that trend to continue since that is a bit a function of luck regarding where the defense is positioned -- which, of course, will then decrease the number of hits he allows as well as then the number of runs he allows. Sonnanstine is a solid pitcher given his 13-9 record with a 1.29 WHIP in 2008. And, he pitched extremely well against Boston last year as he allowed only two unearned runs in thirteen innings in his two starts versus the Red Sox in the heart of the pennant race last September. There are many intangibles to suggest he will pitch well against Boston Friday night. While the Red Sox are hitting .284 overall this season, this number drops to .254 when they bat outside their friendly confines of Fenway Park. And, Boston struggles in domed stadiums as they are just 4-13 against the money line (-10.3 units) over the last two seasons when they play in domes. Tampa Bay thrives in domed stadiums as they are 65-35 against the money line (+21.5 units) in domes over the last two seasons. Overall, Tampa Bay has a 60-25 home winning streak and their fans should be very fired up for this Friday night matchup with the rival Red Sox. Finally, there is a 67% system (+57.8 units) with over 150 samples over the last five seasons that looks to play against road teams in the +/- 125 money line range if they are sending up a starting pitcher who gave up one run or less in his last outing (as Masterson did) versus an opposing pitcher who has an ERA of 7.00 or higher over the last three starts. This historical trend for the struggling home pitcher to rebound at home while the road pitcher to not maintain the effectiveness from his previous outing is very consistent with our specific breakdown of Sonnanstine and Masterson in this game. As baseball in May kicks in, we have the opportunity to play the defending American League Champion as (of this writing) a +110 pick on the money line at home against a Boston pitcher not named Beckett, Dice-K or Lester. This game offers us great value to back a very good ballclub in the Rays looking to prove itself against Boston while providing a favorable pitching matchup. MLB Hollywood Insider Baseball Bash on the Tampa Bay Rays with the money line over the Boston Red Sox -- listing both pitchers Justin Masterson and Andy Sonnanstine.
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