DR. BOB
NBA
2 Star Selection
Portland (-7) over SACRAMENTO
03-Apr-10 07:05 PM Pacific Time
I'll take Portland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -6 points.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -7 or less, 3-Stars at -6.
COLLEGE
Opinion
Butler (-1) over Michigan State
03-Apr-10 03:05 PM Pacific Time
Michigan State has managed to win their last two games without star point guard Kalin Lucas, which speaks to how good of a coach Tom Izzo is. Michigan State is now 25-10-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games when not laying 9 points or more under coach Tom Izzo, including 21-5-1 ATS when they're seeded #5 or better. However, Butler is a better team than Michigan State and the Bulldogs tend to play their best against better teams. The Bulldogs have been 2 points better in 9 games against NCAA tournament caliber teams than they've been overall while going 6-3 straight up in those games (against Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, Ohio State, Xavier, UTEP, Murray State, Syracuse, and Kansas State). Michigan State, meanwhile has been 2 points worse this season than they've been overall, when facing NCAA tournament caliber teams while going a modest 9-8 straight up in those games. My ratings favor Butler by 2 1/2 points without adjusting for Lucas being out and I value Lucas as worth just over 1 point, so the line value favors Butler, who is also playing in their home city. Teams playing in their home state are 123-82 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but the Final Four may not provide the usual edge for the in state team since there are not as many extra tickets available to be snapped up by local fans. Playing in a dome could also be an issue for Butler, who has no experience with the depth perception problems that a dome creates. Michigan State, meanwhile, has played 9 games in domes the last few years, so they're more accustomed to the environment. I'm still going to lean with Butler, who has won 24 consecutive games and toppled very good teams in Syracuse and Kansas State in the last two rounds. Michigan State's 4 tournament wins have been by an average of just 4 points and the only really good team that they beat was Maryland. Butler has played 6 points better in this tournament than Michigan State has and I'll call for them to make it to the Championship game. I have no opinion on the total.
Play Strength:
Opinion
Duke (-2) over West Virginia
03-Apr-10 05:45 PM Pacific Time
Duke wasn't getting the respect that they deserved heading into this tournament, as many thought West Virginia should have been a #1 seed instead of Duke. However, Duke was my 2nd highest rated team heading into this tournament and my ratings favor the Blue Devils by 3 points in this game. Duke has one of the best offensive teams in the nation, but the Blue Devils have the 3rd best defense in the nation on a compensated points per possession basis. Duke is better on both ends of the floor than West Virginia, whose upset win over Kentucky was a bit of a fluke. West Virginia beat Kentucky by only 7 points despite the Wildcats' pathetic 4 for 32 3-point shooting and they'll have to get lucky again to win this game. Teams that beat a #1 seed in the Regional Final are just 6-13 ATS in the national semifinal if facing a team seeded #3 or better and West Virginia also applies to a negative 0-10 ATS Final Four situation. I'll consider Duke a Strong Opinion in this game and I'll lean Under (I project 127 1/2 points).