Feeling Generous Today....Good Luck!
Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
50 Dime Winner tonight on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS plus the poinds - and they're getting around 2 1/2 to 3 as I put this play live arouned 8:30 EST this mornng, against Duke. By the way, I think this line increses closer we get to tipoff.
Bonus 20 Dime Winner on the BUTLER BULLDOGS minus the number - they're currensly laying between 1 and 1 1/2 - agaisnt Michigan State.
WEST VIRGINIA --- The Mountaineers are tougher, play a more physical brand of basketball, and they know how to get to the line. No disrespect to Duke's free throw shooting because it's pretty darn good, but if you force Duke to get into a physical-style game, they'll settle for more jump shots... and in a game like this it's an absolute MUST to take it to the hole and draw the foul. These two teams hooked up two years ago in this very same tourndment, and the Mounties earned a hard-fought 73-67 win as four-point underdogs. When the AP story came out the next day, this was the third sentence of the article...
"Playing tough man-to-man defense, grabbing what seemed like every loose ball..."
I couldn't have said it better myself. West Virginia will play tough man-to-man defense and I have no doubts their players will win the 50/50 balls with pure hustle and "want to". That's how Bob Huggins teaches basketball. Honestly, I think the better overall x's and o's coach is on the West Virginia bench, and when push comes to shove and it's a close game late in the second half (and you know it will be), my money is on Huggy. I also believe West Virginia has the better athletes, and those athletes play better defense for 40 minutes... not to mention the fact they don't have to rely on the three-ball as much as Duke does.
That's been my biggest problem with Duke all along. I just don't like backing a team that absolutely has to hit the long ball to win games. The only way Duke wins this game is if they hit their season average from distance. And that's not going to be an easy task as West Virginia has played very well, defensiveely, defending the three... allowing just 26% this tournament (and in other neutral site games).
When you look at this game statistically, Duke has the advantage in every single category other than bench scoring. So why, I ask, are the Devils only laying about 2 1/2? Because I think Vegas is begging you to take Duke. Every capper in the country is backing Duke, just about everyone I have talked to LOVES Duke (just like everyone liked Baylor last week), and that's yet another reason I like West Virginia today. The Mountaineers haven't lost a game since February 22nd at UConn... and that was back when the Huskies were playing their best basketball of the year.
Look, I have no doubts the Blue Devils can win this game and cover this number if they hit their long range shots and get to the line... but I don't believe both things will happen against this type of defense. Just ask Kentucky. Take the Mountaineers.
BUTLER --- You can't really argue with 24 straight wins, can you? Oh sure, you can criticize their conference all you want and you can call them a mid-major and say they just don't have enough talent to hang with a team like Michigan State. Try telling that to Syracuse, Kansas State, and Ohio State. Those are three top 10 teams the Bulldogs have beaten this season, and if you look at their non-conference schedule you wouldn't be surprised at all that they are in the Final Four. And I'm sick and tired of hearing about George Mason from a few years ago. This isn't George Mason, this is Butler... and these guys have every chance in the world to win this game.
First off, hats off to Tom Izzo. Is there a better coach in college basketball right now? Seriously? This dude has done more with less than any coach in the country, period. But they can only go so far without Kalin Lucas. Not only is this the point guard... the captain of the team... but he's the emotional leader who really keeps this team together. Granted, they beat Tennesee without him, but I just don't see how they can get past a very scrappy, defensive-oriented Butler team that is playing basically in its own back yard. Butler will frustsate MSU, forcing them into bad decisions and ultimately winning this thing at the free throw line. I like Butler to march on to the Championship game Monday night.
