Wunderdog
Yesterday we nailed our 4-unit moneyline play on the Dodgers as LA moved closer to evening up the NLCS. Today we go with three MLB playoffs picks. Over the last three weeks our MLB picks are hitting 58% (15-11) for +14.3 units.
We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Tampa Bay at Boston (4:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -187 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Tampa Bay Rays will head to Boston with the series tied at one game apiece. The Red Sox will send Jon Lester to the mound who has been money at Fenway this season as he is 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA. Overall the Sox are 17-4 in his 21 home starts. This is a crucial game in the series and Lester has completed seven innings in 70% of his last 20 starts. We could also see Jonathon Papelbon for a two-inning save, and he has yet to allow a run in the postseason ever. The Rays have been 5-10 this season behind Matt Garza on the road, so I like the Sox here to take the lead in the series. I also like the prospects of the UNDER here, as the combination of Lester and Papelbon could shutout the Rays. Plus the fact that this game is starting in the late afternoon, with the shadows and twilight for the first two hours or so of the game will make it difficult on hitters.
Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -177 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)
The Dodgers got a desperately needed win yesterday to move them to within one game in the series, now down just 2-1. They have their hottest pitcher on the hill with a lot of postseason experience behind him in Derek Lowe for this one. Lowe will get this opportunity at home, where he has been more than two runs a game better on the season. Lowe has a 2.30 ERA at home, and has allowed 29 fewer hits than innings pitched while his WHIP is under one in home games. Joe Blanton is the weakest link on the Phillies staff completing the season with a 4.69 ERA. This series has the look of a seven-gamer, and the Dodgers have their biggest edge of the series here behind Lowe, and at home, so I will back the Blue and White to even things up at two games apiece.
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Yesterday we nailed our 4-unit moneyline play on the Dodgers as LA moved closer to evening up the NLCS. Today we go with three MLB playoffs picks. Over the last three weeks our MLB picks are hitting 58% (15-11) for +14.3 units.
We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Tampa Bay at Boston (4:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -187 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Tampa Bay Rays will head to Boston with the series tied at one game apiece. The Red Sox will send Jon Lester to the mound who has been money at Fenway this season as he is 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA. Overall the Sox are 17-4 in his 21 home starts. This is a crucial game in the series and Lester has completed seven innings in 70% of his last 20 starts. We could also see Jonathon Papelbon for a two-inning save, and he has yet to allow a run in the postseason ever. The Rays have been 5-10 this season behind Matt Garza on the road, so I like the Sox here to take the lead in the series. I also like the prospects of the UNDER here, as the combination of Lester and Papelbon could shutout the Rays. Plus the fact that this game is starting in the late afternoon, with the shadows and twilight for the first two hours or so of the game will make it difficult on hitters.
Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -177 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)
The Dodgers got a desperately needed win yesterday to move them to within one game in the series, now down just 2-1. They have their hottest pitcher on the hill with a lot of postseason experience behind him in Derek Lowe for this one. Lowe will get this opportunity at home, where he has been more than two runs a game better on the season. Lowe has a 2.30 ERA at home, and has allowed 29 fewer hits than innings pitched while his WHIP is under one in home games. Joe Blanton is the weakest link on the Phillies staff completing the season with a 4.69 ERA. This series has the look of a seven-gamer, and the Dodgers have their biggest edge of the series here behind Lowe, and at home, so I will back the Blue and White to even things up at two games apiece.
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Mr A
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Take the Red Sox at home with Jon Lester on the hill. The southpaw has been outstanding at Fenway Park. Lester is 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 17 starts at home this season and went 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in three stats versus Tampa Bay, 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career starts.Boston has won Lester's last 15 home games, while Tampa Bay's Matt Garza Rays is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six career starts against Boston, but the Red Sox's have lost Garza's last 4 road starts.
Boston Red Sox -180
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Take the Red Sox at home with Jon Lester on the hill. The southpaw has been outstanding at Fenway Park. Lester is 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 17 starts at home this season and went 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in three stats versus Tampa Bay, 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career starts.Boston has won Lester's last 15 home games, while Tampa Bay's Matt Garza Rays is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six career starts against Boston, but the Red Sox's have lost Garza's last 4 road starts.
Boston Red Sox -180
Johnny Guild
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Look for the Giants offense led by quarterback Eli Manning to exploit the Browns mediocre defense. Cleveland ranks 10th in the league in passing defense, but has struggle against the run, ranked 22nd. Take the Giants. New York has played great on the road, winning 12 straight away from home and profitable, going 11-1 against the spread.
New York Giants -8
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Look for the Giants offense led by quarterback Eli Manning to exploit the Browns mediocre defense. Cleveland ranks 10th in the league in passing defense, but has struggle against the run, ranked 22nd. Take the Giants. New York has played great on the road, winning 12 straight away from home and profitable, going 11-1 against the spread.
New York Giants -8
Gina
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia has now lost six straight contests against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and the home team in this series has won 11 straight games, including the Dodgers 7-2 victory in Game 3 on Sunday, Look for the LA Dodgers with their veteran Derek Lowe on the hill to tie this series at 2-2. I believe the Phillies will snatch the National League best of seven championship, but at this point, reckon it will go the seven.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 190
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia has now lost six straight contests against the Dodgers in Los Angeles and the home team in this series has won 11 straight games, including the Dodgers 7-2 victory in Game 3 on Sunday, Look for the LA Dodgers with their veteran Derek Lowe on the hill to tie this series at 2-2. I believe the Phillies will snatch the National League best of seven championship, but at this point, reckon it will go the seven.
Los Angeles Dodgers - 190
hno: now i'm worried,after seeing this posts its a no play for me .IC
Monday NFL
Giants vs. Cleveland
This is a premium pick, it is my only pick today, it is my POD. gl.
Giants/Browns Under 43.5 (POD)
The line here opened up at -6.5 and quickly moved to -8 and now bodog even shows a -9. This is not surprsing since Bodog loves jacking up the price on favorites - that's why it's great to bet dogs with them since you know they will vastly increase the price on favorites because bodogs is synonymous with new bettors who typically blindly take favorites. The public is around 57% on the Giants as they are on the highway at Cleveland. The Giants are undefeated at 4-0 while Cleveland sits at 1-3. The Giants have the edge in every particular category includnig red zone offense, yards per game, defense, kicking, penalty, yards allowed and points per game. But, does that mean they will cover? The public is hitting the over fairly hard as over 70% are on the over. Cleveland finally comes off a win on the road at Cincinatti by a score of 20-12. The Giants are a shocking 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 ballgames. They come off thumpnig the Seahawks at home by a score of 44-6 (the Seahawks make a sound bet in their next game because of this by the way) and the last 3 games have gone over for the Giants. Heck, this is why the public is relying heavily on the over with them considernig they scored 44 points last time. So, the thought is, "Well, hell, if they scored that many points last time, they could single handedly score it here and the over easily htis right"? Not necessarily. If you think Cleveland will be an active dog, then lean on the over. But, having said this, with over 70% on the favorite and the fact that the Giants pride themselves on defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip on the under here. Rememer, these two teams hooked up back in August and the Browns came storming back after getting spanked early on in that preseason game. The Browns ended up losing 34-37 in that game and that is part of the reason why I think folks are jumping on the over using that game as a template. The Giants pride themselves on defense, this is a nationally televised game, the under is 9-3 in the last 12 road ballgames for the Giants and the under is 5-0 for the Browns in their last 5 home games.
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Monday NFL
Giants vs. Cleveland
This is a premium pick, it is my only pick today, it is my POD. gl.
Giants/Browns Under 43.5 (POD)
The line here opened up at -6.5 and quickly moved to -8 and now bodog even shows a -9. This is not surprsing since Bodog loves jacking up the price on favorites - that's why it's great to bet dogs with them since you know they will vastly increase the price on favorites because bodogs is synonymous with new bettors who typically blindly take favorites. The public is around 57% on the Giants as they are on the highway at Cleveland. The Giants are undefeated at 4-0 while Cleveland sits at 1-3. The Giants have the edge in every particular category includnig red zone offense, yards per game, defense, kicking, penalty, yards allowed and points per game. But, does that mean they will cover? The public is hitting the over fairly hard as over 70% are on the over. Cleveland finally comes off a win on the road at Cincinatti by a score of 20-12. The Giants are a shocking 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 ballgames. They come off thumpnig the Seahawks at home by a score of 44-6 (the Seahawks make a sound bet in their next game because of this by the way) and the last 3 games have gone over for the Giants. Heck, this is why the public is relying heavily on the over with them considernig they scored 44 points last time. So, the thought is, "Well, hell, if they scored that many points last time, they could single handedly score it here and the over easily htis right"? Not necessarily. If you think Cleveland will be an active dog, then lean on the over. But, having said this, with over 70% on the favorite and the fact that the Giants pride themselves on defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see a dip on the under here. Rememer, these two teams hooked up back in August and the Browns came storming back after getting spanked early on in that preseason game. The Browns ended up losing 34-37 in that game and that is part of the reason why I think folks are jumping on the over using that game as a template. The Giants pride themselves on defense, this is a nationally televised game, the under is 9-3 in the last 12 road ballgames for the Giants and the under is 5-0 for the Browns in their last 5 home games.
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