Bob Balfe
UCONN/KENTUCKY UNDER 135 points.
This is a very tough game to breakdown tonight. You can make valid arguments for each team. Kentucky is the 8 seed, but this team was picked to win it all before the season started and now here they are. This is a young team, but these athletes are decades ahead of their time. This team is built to go one and done right to the NBA. UConn should have lost to St. Joes. This team is still not getting respect which is amazing because they disrupted the Florida Gators who were by far the best team in the nation. UConn can block shots and play solid defense. Kentucky is in for a surprise if they think they are going to drive into the paint and just make layups all night like they did against Florida and Michigan. What concerns me for Kentucky is they have not needed to shoot the mid-range shot for a week weeks now. UConn likes to slow the game down and I don’t see them getting too many second point chances like they did against the Gators. This Kentucky team is going to get the rebounds. This game is being played on the elevated court and for some reason scoring tends to be down on these surfaces. I think both teams are going to really value their possessions. If in the first couple minutes both teams show jitters and feel each other out the pace can really favor a low scoring game. Remember UConn/Butler a few years ago in the title game? Let’s hope we get a game like that. I do want to be entertained, but I would rather win money. Take the Under.
UCONN/KENTUCKY UNDER 135 points.
This is a very tough game to breakdown tonight. You can make valid arguments for each team. Kentucky is the 8 seed, but this team was picked to win it all before the season started and now here they are. This is a young team, but these athletes are decades ahead of their time. This team is built to go one and done right to the NBA. UConn should have lost to St. Joes. This team is still not getting respect which is amazing because they disrupted the Florida Gators who were by far the best team in the nation. UConn can block shots and play solid defense. Kentucky is in for a surprise if they think they are going to drive into the paint and just make layups all night like they did against Florida and Michigan. What concerns me for Kentucky is they have not needed to shoot the mid-range shot for a week weeks now. UConn likes to slow the game down and I don’t see them getting too many second point chances like they did against the Gators. This Kentucky team is going to get the rebounds. This game is being played on the elevated court and for some reason scoring tends to be down on these surfaces. I think both teams are going to really value their possessions. If in the first couple minutes both teams show jitters and feel each other out the pace can really favor a low scoring game. Remember UConn/Butler a few years ago in the title game? Let’s hope we get a game like that. I do want to be entertained, but I would rather win money. Take the Under.
Scotty Shiller [FONT=verdana, sans-serif]
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Yesterday - 6-1 (+21.97 units)[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Last Week - 27-17 (+49.5 units)
MLB Regular Season - 19-10 (+39.54 units)[/FONT]
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif]Monday, April 7th, 2014[/FONT]
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif]MLB Regular Season [/FONT]
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros ( 2:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Astros/Angels under 8.5 (-110)
Rating - (2*)
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins ( 4:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Oakland ML (-145)
Rating - (5*)
Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies ( 8:40 PM Eastern )
Play - Rockies/White Sox over 10 (+100)
Rating - (3*)
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif]College Basketball[/FONT]
Kentucky @ Connecticut ( 9:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Connecticut/Kentucky over 135 (9:10 PM Eastern )
Rating - (1*)
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif]MLB Regular Season [/FONT]
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros ( 2:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Astros/Angels under 8.5 (-110)
Rating - (2*)
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins ( 4:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Oakland ML (-145)
Rating - (5*)
Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies ( 8:40 PM Eastern )
Play - Rockies/White Sox over 10 (+100)
Rating - (3*)
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=comic sans ms, sans-serif]College Basketball[/FONT]
Kentucky @ Connecticut ( 9:10 PM Eastern )
Play - Connecticut/Kentucky over 135 (9:10 PM Eastern )
Rating - (1*)
Members Area
PSYCHIC
(1-5)
Pass
WIZARD
(1-10)
Pass
JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)
1 unit Connecticut +2.5
Totals 4 U
(1-100% ratings)
Pass
Iceman
(1-3)
Pass
Genius
(1-10)
8 unit Connecticut +8.5
Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
(1-10)
Pass
Michael Cash Money
(1-10)
Pass
The Sports Report
(1-10)
Pass
The Sports Chick
(1-20)
Pass
PSYCHIC
(1-5)
Pass
WIZARD
(1-10)
Pass
JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)
1 unit Connecticut +2.5
Totals 4 U
(1-100% ratings)
Pass
Iceman
(1-3)
Pass
Genius
(1-10)
8 unit Connecticut +8.5
Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
(1-10)
Pass
Michael Cash Money
(1-10)
Pass
The Sports Report
(1-10)
Pass
The Sports Chick
(1-20)
Pass
PREDICTION MACHINE
Kentucky vs. UConn Preview
Monday, April 7 at 9:23 PM ET
Kentucky -2.5 vs. UConn (Covers 54%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light
The Vitals:
SU Pick and Win%: Kentucky wins 62%
ATS Pick and Win%: Kentucky -2.5 covers 54%
ATS Wager for $50 player: $15
OU Pick and Win%: UNDER 134.5 covers 52.4%
OU Wager for $50 player: $1
The Breakdown: It’s not a very likely national championship matchup – each of these teams was just 2.1% likely to make it this far before the tournament started, making this title game 1-in-2,268 likely – but this game between two now battle-tested teams looks fairly straight-forward. It is oft-discussed in the sports culture that “styles make fights” and there is no better way to analyze such a phenomenon than through a simulation that takes into account the strengths and weaknesses of every player that could be on the court in competition. In Monday night’s game, one team has one very clear matchup advantage that should lead to victory.
Kentucky has succeeded this season, particularly during the impressive tournament run, by getting easy second-chance points on offensive rebounds. The Wildcats rank first in the nation in offensive rebounding, securing 42.3% of all of their missed shots. UConn has succeeded this season, particularly during its impressive tournament run, by dominating at the free throw line. Connecticut ranks fourth in the country in free throw percentage at 77.4% and has made just under 85% of its free throws in NCAA Tournament games. Kentucky has a much clearer path to continuing its area of dominance, which should ultimately lead to the difference in the game. UConn is a terrible defensive rebounding team (the Huskies are also a terrible offensive rebounding team), ranking 247th in the country by rebounding just 67.1% of opponents’ misses. Meanwhile, Kentucky is actually significantly better than UConn at getting to the line, ranking 12th nationally in free throw rate. Whereas Kentucky’s dominance on the boards may actually be amplified in this matchup, UConn does not figure to be able to the same at the free throw line.
By the numbers, Kentucky and UConn also “run” at a slow tempo with neither team topping 65 possessions a game on the season. UConn, led by strong Most Outstanding Player candidate Shabazz Napier, is more perimeter-oriented, making 39% of its threes on the season and getting almost 35% of its points from three. Despite Aaron Harrison’s late-game heroics as of late, Kentucky, is best in the paint. The Wildcats only hit 33% from three and get just 27% of their points from outside. Though Kentucky ranks above average in every relevant facet of the game, the Wildcats are only well above average/elite in offensive rebounding and free throw rate offensively. UConn is elite at the line and with on-ball, effective field goal defense. The Huskies have more glaring weaknesses on the glass and much higher turnover rate than one would expect given how often Napier and Ryan Boatright are handling the ball.
Neither pick is strong in this game, especially with just a $1 play (for a normal $50 player) recommended on the UNDER 134.5, but there is some value in this contest, namely from a team in Kentucky that should dominate on the inside.
Kentucky vs. UConn Preview
Monday, April 7 at 9:23 PM ET
Kentucky -2.5 vs. UConn (Covers 54%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light
The Vitals:
SU Pick and Win%: Kentucky wins 62%
ATS Pick and Win%: Kentucky -2.5 covers 54%
ATS Wager for $50 player: $15
OU Pick and Win%: UNDER 134.5 covers 52.4%
OU Wager for $50 player: $1
The Breakdown: It’s not a very likely national championship matchup – each of these teams was just 2.1% likely to make it this far before the tournament started, making this title game 1-in-2,268 likely – but this game between two now battle-tested teams looks fairly straight-forward. It is oft-discussed in the sports culture that “styles make fights” and there is no better way to analyze such a phenomenon than through a simulation that takes into account the strengths and weaknesses of every player that could be on the court in competition. In Monday night’s game, one team has one very clear matchup advantage that should lead to victory.
Kentucky has succeeded this season, particularly during the impressive tournament run, by getting easy second-chance points on offensive rebounds. The Wildcats rank first in the nation in offensive rebounding, securing 42.3% of all of their missed shots. UConn has succeeded this season, particularly during its impressive tournament run, by dominating at the free throw line. Connecticut ranks fourth in the country in free throw percentage at 77.4% and has made just under 85% of its free throws in NCAA Tournament games. Kentucky has a much clearer path to continuing its area of dominance, which should ultimately lead to the difference in the game. UConn is a terrible defensive rebounding team (the Huskies are also a terrible offensive rebounding team), ranking 247th in the country by rebounding just 67.1% of opponents’ misses. Meanwhile, Kentucky is actually significantly better than UConn at getting to the line, ranking 12th nationally in free throw rate. Whereas Kentucky’s dominance on the boards may actually be amplified in this matchup, UConn does not figure to be able to the same at the free throw line.
By the numbers, Kentucky and UConn also “run” at a slow tempo with neither team topping 65 possessions a game on the season. UConn, led by strong Most Outstanding Player candidate Shabazz Napier, is more perimeter-oriented, making 39% of its threes on the season and getting almost 35% of its points from three. Despite Aaron Harrison’s late-game heroics as of late, Kentucky, is best in the paint. The Wildcats only hit 33% from three and get just 27% of their points from outside. Though Kentucky ranks above average in every relevant facet of the game, the Wildcats are only well above average/elite in offensive rebounding and free throw rate offensively. UConn is elite at the line and with on-ball, effective field goal defense. The Huskies have more glaring weaknesses on the glass and much higher turnover rate than one would expect given how often Napier and Ryan Boatright are handling the ball.
Neither pick is strong in this game, especially with just a $1 play (for a normal $50 player) recommended on the UNDER 134.5, but there is some value in this contest, namely from a team in Kentucky that should dominate on the inside.
