vt, your "i hope the real estate market crashes" thread is still my favorite rx bear thread.
guys like you, tiz, steamdaddy, jdog, and i will have contracts put on our heads when it actually happens.
just checked my email and im getting emails from chinese brokers ive met during my travels there about people there doubling down this month thinking they are stealing money.
china needs to have a few consecutive 10% limit down trading days very soon and finally snap the speculators necks there for a while.
guys like you, tiz, steamdaddy, jdog, and i will have contracts put on our heads when it actually happens.
just checked my email and im getting emails from chinese brokers ive met during my travels there about people there doubling down this month thinking they are stealing money.
china needs to have a few consecutive 10% limit down trading days very soon and finally snap the speculators necks there for a while.
If you have a few minutes, Schiff is a good listen on what is currently going on.
http://www.apfn.net/pogo43/A003I071112-728C.MP3
http://www.apfn.net/pogo43/A003I071112-728C.MP3
And this logic applys to only gold? It applys to everything that is overspeculated and turns profit.Housing,tech,oil,etc. will all have their ups and downs.Those in early will reap the rewards ,late comers will feel the pinch.
Shit ,I bought my home in 2000 at 180k.....even a pullback of 20% on its value now leaves my ROI doubled up.Am I really in trouble tho despite the temporary loss of value? Of course not.
Its all the same regardless.
Legg Mason joins the SIV prop party
------------------------------------------------
Legg Mason Gives $100 Million, Credit to Money Funds (Update2)
By Christopher Condon and Miles Weiss
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc., the second-largest publicly traded U.S. mutual-fund company, propped up three money-market funds as a cushion against potential losses on commercial paper linked to subprime mortgages.
The Baltimore-based company invested $100 million in one of its money funds in October and arranged $238 million in credit to support two others this month, according to a Nov. 9 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Legg Mason holds $10.7 billion in debt issued by structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, representing 6 percent of its $167 billion in money-market assets. Credit-rating companies told Legg Mason to bolster the liquidity of the funds to maintain their AAA/Aaa ratings, spokeswoman Mary Athridge said.
``It's a no-brainer: You either prop up your fund with $100 million to solve the problem or watch your multibillion-dollar franchise go down the drain,'' said Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data LLC, the Westborough, Massachusetts-based publisher of the Money Fund Intelligence Newsletter.
SIVs borrow money by selling short-term commercial paper and medium-term notes and buying higher-yielding assets such as financial company debt and mortgage-backed bonds. Investors began shunning the debt in August on concern they may hold assets linked to U.S. subprime mortgages. Those loans, made to the riskiest borrowers, have been defaulting at record rates.
`No Guarantees'
Money-market funds, considered to be among the safest investments, are required to hold debt with top ratings that matures in 13 months or less. Money-market funds never allow their share price to rise above or fall under $1.
``The investments have not affected the $1 per share net asset value of the funds and Legg Mason does not expect that they will, although no guarantees are given,'' the company said in the filing.
Legg Mason, home to star stock-fund manager Bill Miller, is at least the third fund company to prepare to help out money funds that invest in SIVs.
SunTrust Banks Inc. in Atlanta received regulatory approval on Oct. 26 to support two money-market funds if they suffer losses on debt issued by Cheyne Finance LLC, which is liquidating.
Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, reported a $40 million loss on asset-backed commercial paper it purchased from its Evergreen Investment Management Co. unit. Wachovia is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Credit Changes
Legg Mason didn't purchase any debt from its funds, which are sold to institutional investors, Athridge said. She declined to disclose the names of the funds and the SIV investments that led to the liquidity crunch.
Some ``of the asset-backed commercial paper held by the liquidity funds that Legg Mason's subsidiary manages have recently been placed on credit watch or downgraded by ratings agencies,'' according to the filing.
Legg Mason also manages three retail money-market funds that have invested in SIV debt including the $54.1 billion Citi Institutional Liquid Reserves fund. It holds $4.89 billion in SIV debt, of which $1.6 billion worth has been in default or downgraded. Athridge said Legg Mason hasn't sought to support those funds.
Legg Mason shares rose 37 cents to $72.86 at 4:25 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has fallen 23 percent this year, the worst performance on the Standard & Poor's 500 Asset Management and Custody Banks Index. BlackRock Inc., the biggest publicly traded U.S. fund company, has risen 24 percent in New York trading this year.
------------------------------------------------
Legg Mason Gives $100 Million, Credit to Money Funds (Update2)
By Christopher Condon and Miles Weiss
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc., the second-largest publicly traded U.S. mutual-fund company, propped up three money-market funds as a cushion against potential losses on commercial paper linked to subprime mortgages.
The Baltimore-based company invested $100 million in one of its money funds in October and arranged $238 million in credit to support two others this month, according to a Nov. 9 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Legg Mason holds $10.7 billion in debt issued by structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, representing 6 percent of its $167 billion in money-market assets. Credit-rating companies told Legg Mason to bolster the liquidity of the funds to maintain their AAA/Aaa ratings, spokeswoman Mary Athridge said.
``It's a no-brainer: You either prop up your fund with $100 million to solve the problem or watch your multibillion-dollar franchise go down the drain,'' said Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data LLC, the Westborough, Massachusetts-based publisher of the Money Fund Intelligence Newsletter.
SIVs borrow money by selling short-term commercial paper and medium-term notes and buying higher-yielding assets such as financial company debt and mortgage-backed bonds. Investors began shunning the debt in August on concern they may hold assets linked to U.S. subprime mortgages. Those loans, made to the riskiest borrowers, have been defaulting at record rates.
`No Guarantees'
Money-market funds, considered to be among the safest investments, are required to hold debt with top ratings that matures in 13 months or less. Money-market funds never allow their share price to rise above or fall under $1.
``The investments have not affected the $1 per share net asset value of the funds and Legg Mason does not expect that they will, although no guarantees are given,'' the company said in the filing.
Legg Mason, home to star stock-fund manager Bill Miller, is at least the third fund company to prepare to help out money funds that invest in SIVs.
SunTrust Banks Inc. in Atlanta received regulatory approval on Oct. 26 to support two money-market funds if they suffer losses on debt issued by Cheyne Finance LLC, which is liquidating.
Wachovia, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, reported a $40 million loss on asset-backed commercial paper it purchased from its Evergreen Investment Management Co. unit. Wachovia is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Credit Changes
Legg Mason didn't purchase any debt from its funds, which are sold to institutional investors, Athridge said. She declined to disclose the names of the funds and the SIV investments that led to the liquidity crunch.
Some ``of the asset-backed commercial paper held by the liquidity funds that Legg Mason's subsidiary manages have recently been placed on credit watch or downgraded by ratings agencies,'' according to the filing.
Legg Mason also manages three retail money-market funds that have invested in SIV debt including the $54.1 billion Citi Institutional Liquid Reserves fund. It holds $4.89 billion in SIV debt, of which $1.6 billion worth has been in default or downgraded. Athridge said Legg Mason hasn't sought to support those funds.
Legg Mason shares rose 37 cents to $72.86 at 4:25 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has fallen 23 percent this year, the worst performance on the Standard & Poor's 500 Asset Management and Custody Banks Index. BlackRock Inc., the biggest publicly traded U.S. fund company, has risen 24 percent in New York trading this year.
yeah AH continued on, goog, aapl, bidu etc kept on a going, think selling might be exhausted here near term although i expect asia to be pretty bad tonight.....
also looks like yen carry trade unwind subsiding for now, really got going into close but coming back some now
chinese stampeding over cheap cooking oil
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stampede at China supermarket kills three
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: November 12 2007 02:00 | Last updated: November 12 2007 02:00
Three people were killed and 31 injured at the weekend in a stampede for low-priced cooking oil in the western Chinese city of Chongqing.
The incident is a reflection of the current surging inflation, which has in the past been a harbinger of social upheaval in the country.
A 20 per cent discount on five-litre bottles of rapeseed oil at Carrefour had people lining up from 4am on Saturday. A stampede ensued four hours later when the doors were opened to the shopping mall where the French hypermarket is located.
"The government is investigating to determine the cause of the accident," Carrefour said yesterday.
Wholesale vegetable oil prices in China have jumped more than 40 per cent in the past year and increases accelerated in October, with weekly price rises of about 3 per cent at supermarkets in Beijing.
Prices of other foodstuffs such as milk, pork and eggs are also rocketing, contributing to annual headline inflation of more than 6 per cent - the highest level for more than a decade.
China has a history of relatively benign price increases spiralling quickly into double-digit inflation.
Ballooning inflation is regarded as a major reason for the Communists' victory in 1949 and the 1989 turmoil that began in Tiananmen Square has been blamed at least in part on inflation of more than 20 per cent.
Adding to concerns were reports over the weekend of renewed fuel shortages across the eastern seaboard, a week after the government raised tightly controlled pump prices by 10 per cent for the first time in 17 months.
There were also reports that some retail outlets have started hoarding supplies, particularly of diesel, on the expectation the government will raise prices again as global crude oil prices flirt with record $100 a barrel levels.
The shortages are a result of refiners stopping production in order to avoid losses caused by the difference between government-fixed retail prices and the soaring price of crude.
In lifting pump prices last week, the government reversed earlier policy statements that it would not allow any state-controlled prices to rise until at least the end of the year.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the powerful state planning agency in charge of price controls, issued a directive to domestic food oil producers last week ordering them to increase production and "ensure price stability".
In a separate move to remove the excess liquidity that is feeding a housing and stock market bubble and adding to inflation concerns, the central bank at the weekend raised the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stampede at China supermarket kills three
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: November 12 2007 02:00 | Last updated: November 12 2007 02:00
Three people were killed and 31 injured at the weekend in a stampede for low-priced cooking oil in the western Chinese city of Chongqing.
The incident is a reflection of the current surging inflation, which has in the past been a harbinger of social upheaval in the country.
A 20 per cent discount on five-litre bottles of rapeseed oil at Carrefour had people lining up from 4am on Saturday. A stampede ensued four hours later when the doors were opened to the shopping mall where the French hypermarket is located.
"The government is investigating to determine the cause of the accident," Carrefour said yesterday.
Wholesale vegetable oil prices in China have jumped more than 40 per cent in the past year and increases accelerated in October, with weekly price rises of about 3 per cent at supermarkets in Beijing.
Prices of other foodstuffs such as milk, pork and eggs are also rocketing, contributing to annual headline inflation of more than 6 per cent - the highest level for more than a decade.
China has a history of relatively benign price increases spiralling quickly into double-digit inflation.
Ballooning inflation is regarded as a major reason for the Communists' victory in 1949 and the 1989 turmoil that began in Tiananmen Square has been blamed at least in part on inflation of more than 20 per cent.
Adding to concerns were reports over the weekend of renewed fuel shortages across the eastern seaboard, a week after the government raised tightly controlled pump prices by 10 per cent for the first time in 17 months.
There were also reports that some retail outlets have started hoarding supplies, particularly of diesel, on the expectation the government will raise prices again as global crude oil prices flirt with record $100 a barrel levels.
The shortages are a result of refiners stopping production in order to avoid losses caused by the difference between government-fixed retail prices and the soaring price of crude.
In lifting pump prices last week, the government reversed earlier policy statements that it would not allow any state-controlled prices to rise until at least the end of the year.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the powerful state planning agency in charge of price controls, issued a directive to domestic food oil producers last week ordering them to increase production and "ensure price stability".
In a separate move to remove the excess liquidity that is feeding a housing and stock market bubble and adding to inflation concerns, the central bank at the weekend raised the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve.
yeah low 400s to high 790 in 3 years
S&P 1150 to 1439 in 3 years
that said i'm not bullish gold nor would i be buying up here, as i'd expect more pain if we swan dive on the equity markets
as long as things stay afloat and the inflationary games continue gold will outperform
double bottom from AUG lows rapidly approaching
This little correction was a move engineered by the big boys to bring down EVERYTHING......$3.50 gas and $845 Gold does not look good in a political sense..
Also gives the FED cover to cut rates by .50bps....which is what they really want to do
I'm as "bearish" as anybody
just saying this isn't it and it is a trap
PS - Average S&P gain in a presidential election is 18% going back 70 years
gl
This little correction was a move engineered by the big boys to bring down EVERYTHING......$3.50 gas and $845 Gold does not look good in a political sense..
Also gives the FED cover to cut rates by .50bps....which is what they really want to do
I'm as "bearish" as anybody
just saying this isn't it and it is a trap
PS - Average S&P gain in a presidential election is 18% going back 70 years
gl
Agree with this being mainly a fed manipulated move.
Reminds me of being on Seattle against the Steelers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago and the refs having to step in and dictate the winner.
I don't know if the following is accurate but its a spam letter from gorilla trades.
Spam letter
The six-month period from November through April each year has produced explosive results in the stock market. How explosive? Check this out: The Dow has gained 12673.97 points in 57 years, in the months from November through April, while the gain during the remaining May through October months was just 174.61. The S&P has gained 1261.82 points during the same November through April period, while it has gained only 202.48 points from May through October each year.
So, if you would have started with an initial $10,000 investment 57 years ago, and left the money invested in the stock market only during the November through April period each year, your account would now stand at almost $600,000! However, if you had have invested the same $10,000 at the same time, and only left it invested from May through October of each year, your account would now stand at a measly $341.00! (The same investment in the S&P 500 would have netted almost $450,000 from November through April, while only $9,138 would have been gained by investing from only May through October.)
Reminds me of being on Seattle against the Steelers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago and the refs having to step in and dictate the winner.
I don't know if the following is accurate but its a spam letter from gorilla trades.
Spam letter
The six-month period from November through April each year has produced explosive results in the stock market. How explosive? Check this out: The Dow has gained 12673.97 points in 57 years, in the months from November through April, while the gain during the remaining May through October months was just 174.61. The S&P has gained 1261.82 points during the same November through April period, while it has gained only 202.48 points from May through October each year.
So, if you would have started with an initial $10,000 investment 57 years ago, and left the money invested in the stock market only during the November through April period each year, your account would now stand at almost $600,000! However, if you had have invested the same $10,000 at the same time, and only left it invested from May through October of each year, your account would now stand at a measly $341.00! (The same investment in the S&P 500 would have netted almost $450,000 from November through April, while only $9,138 would have been gained by investing from only May through October.)
Don't lower our credit rating, please!! pretty pretty please!! :lolBIG:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Countrywide: downgrade could be crushing
Mortgage lender says that a credit downgrade would severely impact its ability to raise money.
November 12 2007: 6:21 PM EST
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Countrywide's ability to raise money and increase deposits in its banking subsidiary could be hampered if its credit ratings were downgraded below investment grade, the mortgage lender said in a regulatory filing.
Countrywide (Charts, Fortune 500), the nation's largest mortgage lender, said further reductions to its credit ratings would severely limit its ability to access public debt markets, according to a quarterly report filed late Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In addition, as much as $5.5 billion in deposits at Countrywide Bank could be "subject to placement with another bank" if its ratings were cut further, the company said.
As of Nov. 7, the three major credit agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service (Charts) and Fitch Ratings - had placed the company on some form of negative outlook, according to the filing.
The company said it took steps to boost its access to funds, including $9.2 billion in cash by the end of the third quarter.
Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide issued the latest disclosures as part of an expanded account of third-quarter financial results.
Last month, the company reported a loss of $1.2 billion during the quarter ended Sept. 30 - its first quarterly loss in 25 years.
Management said then that Countrywide was expected to post a profitable fourth quarter and 2008.
In the filing, however, the company reiterated a down outlook into next year, projecting its U.S. loan origination volume will plummet 30 percent in 2008 compared to this year.
Mortgage market woes have forced the company to set aside millions in loan-loss provisions and writedowns, and the lender originated fewer loans.
<!-- REAP --><!--startclickprintexclude--> Subprime bailouts: Chump check
<!--endclickprintexclude--><!-- /REAP -->In the latest filing, the company said some 5.8 percent of the loans in its servicing portfolio were behind in payments by 30 to 90 days as of Sept. 30, up from 4.5 percent in the year-ago quarter.
About 23.9 percent of its subprime loans made to borrowers with shaky credit histories were delinquent, up from 16.9 percent, the company said.
The rate of delinquency among prime home equity loans also increased, with 4.6 percent of those loans delinquent, compared to 2.1 percent in the year-ago quarter.
In all, 0.92 percent of the loans in the company's servicing portfolio at the end of the quarter were pending foreclosure, up from 0.52 percent in the third quarter of 2006.
Meanwhile, Countrywide said in the filing that the decline in demand for mortgage-backed securities amid the credit crisis that rocked financial markets during the summer has forced it to find other ways to estimate the value of its portfolio of loans held for sale.
The portfolio of loans held for sale was valued at $12.3 billion and represented some 60 percent of mortgages, including nonconforming adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity loans, originated or purchased for resale as of Sept. 30.
The lender typically calculates the fair value of the portfolio based on market prices for securities backed by similar loans.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Countrywide: downgrade could be crushing
Mortgage lender says that a credit downgrade would severely impact its ability to raise money.
November 12 2007: 6:21 PM EST
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Countrywide's ability to raise money and increase deposits in its banking subsidiary could be hampered if its credit ratings were downgraded below investment grade, the mortgage lender said in a regulatory filing.
Countrywide (Charts, Fortune 500), the nation's largest mortgage lender, said further reductions to its credit ratings would severely limit its ability to access public debt markets, according to a quarterly report filed late Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In addition, as much as $5.5 billion in deposits at Countrywide Bank could be "subject to placement with another bank" if its ratings were cut further, the company said.
As of Nov. 7, the three major credit agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service (Charts) and Fitch Ratings - had placed the company on some form of negative outlook, according to the filing.
The company said it took steps to boost its access to funds, including $9.2 billion in cash by the end of the third quarter.
Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide issued the latest disclosures as part of an expanded account of third-quarter financial results.
Last month, the company reported a loss of $1.2 billion during the quarter ended Sept. 30 - its first quarterly loss in 25 years.
Management said then that Countrywide was expected to post a profitable fourth quarter and 2008.
In the filing, however, the company reiterated a down outlook into next year, projecting its U.S. loan origination volume will plummet 30 percent in 2008 compared to this year.
Mortgage market woes have forced the company to set aside millions in loan-loss provisions and writedowns, and the lender originated fewer loans.
<!-- REAP --><!--startclickprintexclude--> Subprime bailouts: Chump check
<!--endclickprintexclude--><!-- /REAP -->In the latest filing, the company said some 5.8 percent of the loans in its servicing portfolio were behind in payments by 30 to 90 days as of Sept. 30, up from 4.5 percent in the year-ago quarter.
About 23.9 percent of its subprime loans made to borrowers with shaky credit histories were delinquent, up from 16.9 percent, the company said.
The rate of delinquency among prime home equity loans also increased, with 4.6 percent of those loans delinquent, compared to 2.1 percent in the year-ago quarter.
In all, 0.92 percent of the loans in the company's servicing portfolio at the end of the quarter were pending foreclosure, up from 0.52 percent in the third quarter of 2006.
Meanwhile, Countrywide said in the filing that the decline in demand for mortgage-backed securities amid the credit crisis that rocked financial markets during the summer has forced it to find other ways to estimate the value of its portfolio of loans held for sale.
The portfolio of loans held for sale was valued at $12.3 billion and represented some 60 percent of mortgages, including nonconforming adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity loans, originated or purchased for resale as of Sept. 30.
The lender typically calculates the fair value of the portfolio based on market prices for securities backed by similar loans.
