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ECONOMIC REPORT
Wholesale inventories leanest ever in September
Higher prices push wholesale petroleum sales up 7.7%
By
Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:16 AM ET Nov 7, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales generated by U.S. wholesale merchants increased faster than their inventories in September, driving their stockpiles to the lowest level ever in relation to sales, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
With inventories tight, wholesalers are well positioned if final demand from consumers falters. But if demand unexpectedly picks up, they could be caught short unless U.S. producers and foreign importers can step up output quickly.
U.S. businesses generally have very low inventories, one reason why many economists say a recession remains unlikely despite mounting troubles in the financial and real-estate sectors. In the past, poor supply management has led to large overstocks just as demand falters, requiring heavy cutbacks in production and massive layoffs.
In recent years, however, companies have gotten much better at managing their supply chain, keeping just enough goods on hand to satisfy demand. Swings in demand don't have the same impact on production or employment as in the past because imbalances don't develop.
Wholesalers are middlemen between retailers and producers. They serve as absorbers for supply and demand shocks, and trends in wholesale trade are not considered leading indicators.
Wholesalers' sales increased 1.3% in September, the best growth since May, while inventories rose 0.8%, the most since November 2006.
As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to a record low 1.10 form 1.11 in August. A year ago, the ratio was 1.15.
The typical wholesaler has about 33 days of sales on hand.
Read the full report.
Impact on GDP
The wholesale inventory report rarely affects financial markets; it's primarily of interest to economists as they go about tweaking their estimates for gross domestic product. The Commerce Department will finalize its estimates for business sales and inventories for September with the release of retail inventory data next week.
Growth in inventories during August and September was much stronger than the government had estimated in its first report on third-quarter GDP.
Economists from Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley said GDP could be revised to 4.9% from 3.9% as a result of stronger inventory growth and other data that have surfaced since the first report.
But some of that growth could have been stolen from the fourth quarter, said David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley, who wrote in a note to clients that the economy's growing at a 0.5% annual pace in the current quarter.
Details
Most of the increase in wholesalers' September sales came from a 7.7% rise in petroleum, which were boosted by higher prices. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.
Despite the higher prices, inventories of petroleum wholesalers fell 1.5%.
Sales of durable goods rose 0.3% in the month while inventories rose 0.7%. The inventory-to-sales ratio for durable goods rose to 1.46 from 1.45. Auto sales rose 4.1% and auto inventories rose 1%.
Sales of nondurable goods rose 2.1% in September while inventories increased 1%. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 0.79 from 0.80, just above the record low of 0.78 in May. The inventory-to-sales ratio for petroleum dropped to 0.29 from 0.31, above the record low of 0.28 set three years ago.
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department revised much higher its figures for sales and inventories growth in August. Sales were revised to a 0.8% gain from 0.4%, while inventories were said to have increased 0.7%, rather than 0.1% originally reported.