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the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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We need a bailout stat....paulson proclaims!!

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Paulson Urges Action on Housing Crisis
Tuesday October 16, 2:18 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Paulson: Aggressive Action Needed for Housing Crisis, Which Is 'Significant Risk' to Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called Tuesday for an aggressive response to deal with an unfolding housing crisis that he said presents a significant risk to the economy.

In the administration's most detailed reaction to the steepest housing slump in 16 years, Paulson said that government and the financial industry should provide immediate help for homeowners trying to refinance current mortgages before they reset at much higher rates.

He also called for an overhaul of laws and regulations governing mortgage lending to halt abusive practices that contributed to the current crisis.

"Let me be clear, despite strong economic fundamentals, the housing decline is still unfolding and I view it as the most significant current risk to our economy," Paulson said in a speech delivered at Georgetown University's law school. "The longer housing prices remain stagnant or fall, the greater the penalty to our future economic growth."

In his most somber assessment of the crisis to date, Paulson said that the housing correction is "not ending as quickly" as it had appeared it would and that "it now looks like it will continue to adversely impact our economy, our capital markets and many homeowners for some time yet."

Paulson spoke a day after officials from the nation's three biggest banks announced the creation of a fund with up to $100 billion in resources to buy troubled assets such as mortgage-backed securities.

Treasury Department officials participated in the behind-the-scenes discussions that led to creation of the fund, but no government resources have been pledged to the effort.

Paulson said that the government must balance the need to help homeowners stay in their homes against the threat that government action can encourage investors to make risky decisions in the future.

"We must help as many able homeowners as possible stay in their homes," Paulson said. "Foreclosures are costly and painful for homeowners."

But Paulson also stated, "When investors are relieved of the cost of bad decisions, they are more likely to repeat their mistakes. I have no interest in bailing out lenders or property speculators."

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday that the housing problem would be a "significant drag" on economic growth into next year and that it would take time for Wall Street to fully recover from a significant credit crunch.

In August, financial markets around the world were roiled by the worst credit crisis in nearly a decade as investors became worried about rising defaults in the mortgage market, causing credit to dry up in a number of markets including the market for commercial paper, short-term loans used extensively by businesses.

At the time, Paulson insisted that the country would be able to work through the problems without any lingering adverse effects. However, as the extent of the troubles in subprime mortgages has grown and the housing slump has deepened, the administration has worked to increase its efforts.

Democrats have also been critical of many of the administration's proposals so far, saying they will offer too little help in the face of the prospect that 2 million mortgages homeowners obtained with low introductory "teaser" rates will reset at much higher rates in the coming 18 months.

Paulson said in his speech that it was crucial for more mortgage companies to join in an industrywide effort dubbed Hope Now to boost the number of homeowners who can be reached with credit counseling and help to refinance to mortgages they can afford.

In remarks aimed at lenders, Paulson said, "We have an immediate need to see more loan modifications and refinancing and other flexibility. For many families, this will be the only viable solution. The current process is not working well. This is not about finger-pointing; it is about putting an aggressive plan together and moving forward."
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Think i'll be hanging onto those home builder shorts a little while longer....and like i said before there is no vested interest to bail them out....honestly the big dogs are probably hoping they go under as quickly as possible...housing a supply/demand issue ....so if you get rid of some of the homebuilders you shrink the supply........

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Homebuilder Outlook Falls to Record Low
Tuesday October 16, 2:36 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Index of Homebuilder Sentiment Falls for Eighth Straight Month to New Record Low

WASHINGTON (AP) -- An index that tracks developers' expectations of future home sales fell this month to a new record low, suggesting price cuts haven't yet injected a spark into the slumping market.

The National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday its housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell two points to 18 in October, the lowest level since the index began in Jan. 1985. It was the eighth straight monthly decline.

The consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR was for a reading of 19.

Index readings higher than 50 indicate positive sentiment. The seasonally adjusted index has been below 50 since May 2006.
 

I'm still here Mo-fo's
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New housing numbers this morning pretty bad. Increasing costs of commodities and an inflation spike (cpi), spells a tank day for the markets.

Eek, sell sell sell.

Good week to sit back and wait for the shakeup to settle, then buy buy buy!
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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nother super bearish action day just like last thursday...big reversal.....and in the face of solid earnings from intel, yahoo, coke, jpm, etc.....selling the news and me thinky the markets don't think q4 gonna be so good....oct 19th approaching
 

Triple digit silver kook
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Whats ironic is many of the bank stocks are lower now than they were when the fed cut rates.

Looking like some of the mid sized regional banks are in more trouble than a lil' bit.

My favorite stock to trash Countrywide again is hanging over the cliffs edge.
 

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This dollar selloff is continuing unabated. Its astounding and its getting worse.

As I posted on another econ centric board, the best deli I know around here is owned by a guy I'm friend's with. His bread is terrific and his costs for all his supplies has gone up incredibly over the course of the past 6 months. 50 to 60% for many items. Yet they want to X out food in these price index numbers.

Sure the market is doing well which is what I thought it would do as of the end of August. It will keep doing well in nominal terms. And the sheep will jump up and down. Under the surface this kind of inflation is scary. Some of these places will eat the cost increases up to a point but as my deli owner posted, he had no choice but to raise prices across the board....Just the start.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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dollar dollar 77.50, oil 89.54, gold 763, bullish!! cut rates now!!!

VT think you might see a big swoon down on markets soon, as well as oil and gold, and a dollar spike.

Setup seems perfect IMO to surprise everybody

and tomorrow is oct 19th the 20th anniversary of black monday 1987

china and india the global leaders of what i call the global stock market bubble were both down over 3% last night, we'll see what tonight brings.
 

role player
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china and india the global leaders of what i call the global stock market bubble were both down over 3% last night, we'll see what tonight brings.


Let china crash and burn without a shot even being fired...BEAUTIFUL!!
 

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dollar dollar 77.50, oil 89.54, gold 763, bullish!! cut rates now!!!

VT think you might see a big swoon down on markets soon, as well as oil and gold, and a dollar spike.

Setup seems perfect IMO to surprise everybody

and tomorrow is oct 19th the 20th anniversary of black monday 1987

china and india the global leaders of what i call the global stock market bubble were both down over 3% last night, we'll see what tonight brings.

Completely disagree. I think you see 14,200 by the end of next week. With 15k a certainty before the end of Jan....Simply put, unless he holds rates where they are between then and now, its going higher. Funny money moves this thing. If you see a dollar rally, that's when it ends. And I think the movement is simply not getting better. In fact the fact that so many people think a rally in the dollar is coming and it never does says that 1.50 range is in the bag by maybe springtime. No doubt it that fucking moron cuts again....All to save banks and try and prop housing nominally. Hysterical.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Let china crash and burn without a shot even being fired...BEAUTIFUL!!

everybody going down at the same time, if they go down

obviously the high flyers will fall more aka china and india.

everybody is dependent on everybody else in some way shape or form in today's global economy.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Completely disagree. I think you see 14,200 by the end of next week. With 15k a certainty before the end of Jan....Simply put, unless he holds rates where they are between then and now, its going higher. Funny money moves this thing. If you see a dollar rally, that's when it ends. And I think the movement is simply not getting better. In fact the fact that so many people think a rally in the dollar is coming and it never does says that 1.50 range is in the bag by maybe springtime. No doubt it that fucking moron cuts again....All to save banks and try and prop housing nominally. Hysterical.

they can cut rates all they want there will be a flock to cash when shit hits the fan. the credit lines are drying up. Always happens. and both sides of the ledger bulls and bears seem to think dollar going into the gutter. bears scrambling for oil and gold and cheerleading it, bulls complacent with markets going up.

honestly the 50 bp cut was a preemptive move IMO.

When you got everybody thinking one way, likely the exact opposite is going to happen in a big way.

regardless of what happens i'm fine as i'm long some stuff, short other stuff, have gold, have cash.

granted i'm shorter now percentage wise then i typically would be.
 

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Tiznow, forget credit. He actually did REPOs this morning. They sell a lot of treasuries next week. Who steps up to the plate to buy them? It ain't the Chinese anymore.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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well if you can explain to me how

china running from 1000 to 6000 in 2 years

and india running from 2600 to 19000 since 2002

is sustainable then maybe i'll think otherwise

the emerging markets are running on crack right now

earlier this year i read of chinese people quitting maid and cook jobs to trade stocks for a living.

It's a mania and lots will get burned badly when it falls apart and we and the rest of the world will go right along with it.

and what happens when they inevitable do fall on their face commodity demand will shrink big time.

by they way india is getting slammed cause of oil spike....they are VERY dependent on foreign oil.

there's this major balance going on, in the global scale, and the wiggle room to keep the engine running is becoming less and less by the day.
 

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Tiz, money growth is at 25% in India. When does that stop? Its the same all over the place. It may be musical chairs but it can go on a whole lot longer than people think.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Tiz, money growth is at 25% in India. When does that stop? Its the same all over the place. It may be musical chairs but it can go on a whole lot longer than people think.

exactly but when the music stops watch out!! are we near that point yet. who knows

may to july 2006 india "crashed" it was called that fell from well you can read the chart....all global economies will drug with it

now picked itself back up and skied to over 19000 at the latest peak...people within india been calling it a bubble for years....but like you say it keeps on going....will it end soon? i saying i'm thinking it will.

love this chart. sustainable? with oil near 90 for a country that imports a large percentage of its oil?

bottom line you must look beyond the US as far as stock markets these days all markets are important in your analysis as they have been moving in tandem for the most part for years now.

plus talking uber bearish...the first great depression wasn't an american event....it was a global event with all economies skying at ridiculous "unstainable" rates prior to its collapse....what goes up way too fast ususally falls hard.
 
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I'm saving my pennies for the Feb time frame. I have a good feeling about serious puts at that point. I'll take the plunge.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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yeah its all about timing in my mind at this point....high probability of a major swan dive on markets worldwide in the next year or so....just a matter of when
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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nother example of our economy firing on all cylinders

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USA Truck Announces Third Quarter Results
Thursday October 18, 8:00 am ET

VAN BUREN, Ark., Oct. 18, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- USA Truck, Inc. (NasdaqGS:USAK - News) today announced base revenue of $99.3 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007, an increase of 2.7% from $96.7 million for the same quarter of 2006. Net income decreased 99.5% from $3.4 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2006 to $16 thousand for the same quarter of 2007. Diluted earnings per share decreased from $0.30 for the quarter ended September 30, 2006 to $0.00 for the same quarter of 2007.

Base revenue increased 0.8% from $293.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 to $295.5 million for the same period of 2007. Net income decreased 84.7% from $11.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 to $1.7 million for the same period of 2007. Diluted earnings per share decreased 83.5% from $0.97 for the nine months ended September 30, 2006 to $0.16 for the same period of 2007.

In comparing the financial results of the three months ended September 30, 2007 to the comparable period of 2006, Cliff Beckham, President and CEO, made the following statement:

``The current freight environment continues as one of the most challenging we have ever seen. For the second consecutive year, we have experienced virtually no fall peak shipping season. That soft freight demand, an adverse jury verdict in a contract dispute and high fuel prices were the dominant influences on our earnings during the quarter.

``Our base revenue increased 2.7%. Trucking revenue increased 2.5% as our average tractor count grew by 2.3% (but actually declined slightly sequentially from the second quarter). Our increased focus on non-asset based services bore fruit as USA Logistics revenue, particularly our Strategic Capacity Solutions division (Freight Brokerage), increased 13.0%.

``Competitive pressures eroded our base revenue for the quarter by almost $0.03 per loaded mile (2.0%), and base revenue per total mile decreased approximately $0.04 (2.9%) as our empty mile factor (historically a strong indicator of freight availability) increased by 0.87 percentage points. We expect pricing and freight availability to remain competitive in the near-term due to the continued over-capacity of tractors in the industry relative to freight demand.

``Despite the current freight conditions, we continue to focus our efforts on the fundamentals of our business with some signs of progress. In particular, our driver turnover improved by nearly 45 percentage points year-over-year. The dramatic improvement in driver turnover over the past year has contributed significantly to fewer unmanned tractors (2.5 percentage point improvement for the quarter) and has translated into more miles per tractor per week (3.4% increase for the quarter). Combined with slower fleet growth, the driver turnover improvements yielded a 27.1% decline in driver recruiting costs, or over 100 basis points in margin.
 

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yeah its all about timing in my mind at this point....high probability of a major swan dive on markets worldwide in the next year or so....just a matter of when

Depending on what leaps are like in the options market I may be able to go out a year or two from that point. Unless I have the guts to go the 3 month route.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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well october 19th upon us

looking like an negative day but not a "crash" day unless it really picks up

gold and oil getting smacked down some and dollar up a bit along with it

catapillar lowered outlook for the year, that's significant news....things are a slowly globally

well they said things held up globally for now that is, domestically is what's hitting them.

Caterpillar's said its results were held up by its strong international presence -- more than half the company's sales are overseas. The company credited continued strength in oil and gas exploration, mining and other industries abroad that use heavy equipment.
 

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