sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

will keep it coming DAW glad i can be of assistance to a trader

which i am not for obvious reasons

shortest time frame trading i do is on the order of weeks

right now that is the portion of my shorts (with a majority 75% of them or so staying on) that i'm trying to pull out during my self titled "bear shakes" and than toss back in during the "bear legs"

i gotta keep my self entertained some way watching this pig implode

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Conversely, look at s&p chart after this was posted.

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02-07-2008, 12:16 PM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; font-weight: normal;" align="right"> #4408 </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td class="alt2" style="border-style: none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130); border-width: 0px 1px;" width="175"> DAWOOFDADDY <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_5073981", true); </script>
www.ronpaul2008dotcom



Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Deflationville, Iowa
Posts: 11,854


</td> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_5073981" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);"> <!-- icon and title -->

<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> When did the fed and other countries stop increasing the aggregate money supply relative to economic growth?

Until that happens, you can keep the across-the-board deflation in the drawer.

Tiznow the sheep has a nice ring to it...would make a great cartoon, eh?

Looks like the smart jews are buying stocks today.
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</td> <td class="alt1" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0px 1px 1px 0px;" align="right"> <!-- controls --> </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[tiznow]

okay your the short term god high five to you

i suck donkey balls

your a short term trader so you should be

i am not

HAHAHAHAHAH DEFLATIONVILLE IOWA NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tiznow]

quote of the day

"Stocks do worse during times of slow growth than they do during recession," said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. "If we're in a shallow and short recession, for all anyone knows, we might be halfway through."

 

[MIMS]

This thread is a joke. The DOW is about 200 points higher than it was the night before you were predicting Black Tuesday and the death of the entire market.

 

[tiznow]

yeah S&P only 15.8% off its october high its a bad joke

see ya lower

obviously my short term crash predictions, and short term predictions in general just me making noise and trying to entertain myself

i'm a good short term fade, when i start getting really vocal about a crash or whatever we are probably reaching a near term bottom

moderate term (1-2 years) we have entered a pretty nasty bear it will be a choppy volatile ride down

 

[MIMS]

yeah S&P only 15.8% off its october high its a bad joke

see ya lower

obviously my short term crash predictions, and short term predictions in general just me making noise and trying to entertain myself

i'm a good short term fade, when i start getting really vocal about a crash or whatever we are probably reaching a near term bottom

moderate term (1-2 years) we have entered a pretty nasty bear it will be a choppy volatile ride down

Just saying that 174 of the 179 pages of this thread are absolutely worthless. Predictions for the longer term are ok, but your daily predictions are a waste of time

 

[tiznow]

they aren't worthless to DAW supposedly as he said he faded my short term calls today glad to help out

----------------

oopsie

------------------------

30-Year Treasuries Fall Most Since '04 as Demand Fades at Sale

By Sandra Hernandez

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries tumbled after the government's $9 billion auction of 30-year bonds at the lowest yields ever chased away investors.

The longest-maturity U.S. debt fell the most since 2004 as bondholders concluded that yields were too low given the Federal Reserve's determination to cut interest rates and keep the economy out of a recession. Before the government's sale, investors expected a 4.41 percent yield, based on pre-auction trading. The bonds were sold at 4.449 percent.

``This is a massive boycott,'' said George Goncalves, chief Treasury and agency debt strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley, one of the 20 primary government securities dealers that are required to bid at Treasury auctions. ``We got a message that enough's enough.''

The yield on the new 30-year bond auctioned today rose to 4.51 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield on the previous benchmark bond due in May 2037 rose 16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to 4.52 percent, the biggest one-day leap on a long bond since April 2004. The 2037 bond fell about 2 3/4, or $27.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 107 3/4.

The yield on the 10-year note auctioned yesterday rose 16 basis points to 3.76 percent, the largest increase in yield since 2004. Yesterday's auction yield was the lowest since regular quarterly sales of the note began in 1978. Ten-year yields touched a 4 1/2-year low of 3.285 percent on Jan. 23, the day after the Fed's emergency 0.75 percentage point rate cut.

Lowest on Record

The auction yield on the new long bond was the lowest since regular sales of the security began in 1977, according to Steve Meyerhardt, an official in the Bureau of the Public Debt in Washington.

Indirect bidders, the class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 10.7 percent of the securities, the lowest on a new 30-year bond since the Treasury resumed sales of the maturity in February 2006 after an almost five-year hiatus. The 20 primary dealers bought 89 percent of the sale, the most since the bond was reintroduced.

``Most of it was a dealer auction which meant that customers themselves didn't put their money where there mouths were,'' said James Collins, an interest-rate strategist in Chicago at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., a primary dealer. ``The market knows dealers are going to have to sell the issue at a steep discount.''

Speculation that the economy would fall into a recession helped push the 30-year bond yield to 4.1 percent on Jan. 23, the lowest since regular sales began in 1977. Treasuries of all maturities have returned 2.9 percent in 2008, the best start to a year since 1988, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

ISM Report

The gains compare with a 9 percent loss in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to start the year. Demand for the safety of government debt increased as banks and securities firms have reported $146 billion of losses and writedowns on mortgage- linked investments since the start of 2007.

Treasuries briefly pared losses after the Institute for Supply Management denied speculation the group would revise its latest report, which showed service industries contracted the most since 2001, Ian Lyngen, a strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut, said in a note today.

The ISM's non-manufacturing index, which reflects almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 41.9, the lowest since October 2001, the last time the U.S. was in a recession, from 54.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said Feb. 5.

No Error

There was no error in the original report and no revision is planned, ISM spokeswoman Andrea Wass said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News.

Traders pushed 10-year note yields to 1.7 percentage points above two-year rates. The difference is the biggest since September 2004, signaling reduced demand for longer-maturity debt, which is most sensitive to expectations that inflation will accelerate as rate cuts spur growth.

The two-year note's yield rose 12 basis points to 2.06 percent.

``To the extent that long-term inflation expectations have risen a fair degree, as the Fed has been aggressive in easing, it would be negative for the 30-year,'' said Kurush Mistry, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., a primary dealer.

U.S. economic growth will accelerate at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, double the pace of this quarter, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. U.S. consumer prices rose 4.1 percent in 2007, the most since 1990, the Labor Department said last month.

Traders see a 90 percent likelihood that Fed policy makers will reduce their target for overnight loans between banks by a half-point to 2.50 percent at or before their next scheduled meeting on March 18, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. The rest of the bets are for a 75 basis point cut.

``The auction went as poorly as one could imagine,'' said Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products in New York at MF Global Ltd., the world's largest broker of exchange-traded futures and options contracts.

 

[Michelangelo]

I'm with ya Tiz. This baby's been in the crapper since mid-October's 14,279 high. Might pause at 12,000. Might pause at 11,500. Then we're heading to about 10,600. Then 10,000. If we break through 10,000, should be a pretty quick ride down to about 7500.

Short baby. Short.

Anything with a high P/E will get killed. Been riding FSLR down. Still has a long way to go.

 

[MIMS]

I'm with ya Tiz. This baby's been in the crapper since mid-October's 14,279 high. Might pause at 12,000. Might pause at 11,500. Then we're heading to about 10,600. Then 10,000. If we break through 10,000, should be a pretty quick ride down to about 7500.

Short baby. Short.

Anything with a high P/E will get killed. Been riding FSLR down. Still has a long way to go.

DJIA P/E is around 15. Hard to see that as "high" enough to get killed

 

[tiznow]

i think we are gonna counter the 2000 bubble with ridiculous valuations with some single digit P/Es like in the late 70s early 80s before she's all said and done

things are basically near the 50 year average right now as far as valuations go not sure what current average S&P P/E probably around 15 or so like you say

plus earnings are starting to contract and alot of the 2008 projections need to be revised down some as well so even though prices are falling p/e moving forward not falling hard yet

plus that average of 17 p/e is skewed by the fact that we had the 90s of uber rich valuations going back longer average probably more in the lower teens

yeah 81.8 year average is 15.92, you can find a longer term chart in the link below

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000\026.pdf

 

[MIMS]

S&P 500 P/Es are far higher than DJIA. I'm not going to dispute that

 

[tiznow]

dow is a useless index its 30 stocks that rotate alot

 

[MIMS]

dow is a useless index its 30 stocks that rotate alot

ORLY? I had no idea! Good thing that other guy posted about the DOW and I responded to him.

 

[tiznow]

plus the way they treat the dow they make sure there is no heavy move at opening bell to freak people out

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With the current inclusion of only 30 stocks, some, such as Ric Edelman argue [5] the DJIA is not a very accurate representation of the overall market performance even though it is the most cited and most widely recognized of the stock market indices. Historically, though, it has performed very much in line with the broader U.S. market.[citation needed]

Additionally, the DJIA is criticized for being a price-weighted average, which gives relatively higher-priced stocks more influence over the average than their lower-priced counterparts. For example, a $1 increase in a lower-priced stock can be negated by a $1 decrease in a much higher-priced stock, even though the first stock experienced a larger percentage change. As of November 2007 IBM is the highest priced stock in the index and therefore has the greatest influence on it. Many critics of the DJIA recommend the float-adjusted market-value weighted S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, the latter of which includes all U.S. securities with readily available prices, as better indicators of the U.S. market.

Another issue with the Dow is that not all 30 components open at the same time in the morning.[dubious – discuss] Only a few components open at the start and the posted opening price of the Dow is determined by the price of those few components that open first and the previous day's closing price of the remaining components that haven't opened yet; therefore, the posted opening price on the Dow will always be close to the previous day's closing price (which can be observed by looking at Dow price history) and will never accurately reflect the true opening prices of all its components. Thus, in terms of candlestick charting theory, the Dow's posted opening price cannot be used in determining the condition of the market.

 

[Michelangelo]

I'm the other guy. Not useless to me. It's still the most "visible" index. It's chart tells me all I need to know about general market conditions. You guys can fret from day to day about what's driving the market. I find your banter to be very informative and educational. Thank you.

But the Dow chart is my rudder.

Like I said earlier, stocks with the highest P/Es will be my short moneymakers.

Anyone know where I can find a listing of the stocks with the highest P/Es?

 

[MIMS]

I'm the other guy. Not useless to me. It's still the most "visible" index. It's chart tells me all I need to know about general market conditions. You guys can fret from day to day about what's driving the market. I find your banter to be very informative and educational. Thank you.

But the Dow chart is my rudder.

Like I said earlier, stocks with the highest P/Es will be my short moneymakers.

Anyone know where I can find a listing of the stocks with the highest P/Es?

Use any of the many stock screeners

 

[tiznow]

alot of these are micro caps probably so not really a big issue

P/E not the end all

high P/E typically more sustainable for small and rapidly growing companies as P/Es go up as growth rates go up...

as companies evolve and get bigger their P/Es shrink as they can't sustain the growth

INTEL and MSFT good examples they are basically blue chip growth companies now post 2000, and should have a P/E around 15

but for a big company like AMZN with valuation in the 60s as we fall into slowing consumer demand is frothy as hell

i've been short it since 94 and expect it to get to sub 40 by the end, now at 70

anyway here's a list

http://www.stockinvestingx.com/high-pe-ratio.php

Here are the stocks with the 100 highest P/E ratios. Check back often, this chart is updated every few weeks.
GDP GOODRICH PET HLD NEW 14150.00
ABBI Abraxis BioScience, Inc. 12,124
GMT GATX Corporation 10,441
WKBRF Workbrain Corporation 9,216.10
GIM TEMPLETON GLOBAL ICM 9200.00
GDP Goodrich Petroleum Corporation 8,628.00
PLSDF Pulse Data Inc. 6,350.00
PRVT Private Media Group Inc. 6,052.80
WAUW WAUWATOSA HOLDINGS 5876.67
RGR Sturm, Ruger & Company 4,153.10
RGR STURM RUGER AND CO 4070.00
AMIE Ambassadors International, Inc. 3,940.90
PRVT PRIVATE MEDIA GROU 3840.00
CDPYF Canadian Apartment Properties REIT 3,704.50
GOKN Geokinetics Inc. 3,250.00
KTEC Key Technology, Inc. 3,031.70
RG ROGERS COMMUN CL B 2871.58
VLDZF Valdez Gold Inc. 2,800.00
NWF NUVEEN INSRD FL FD 2702.00
AECC The American Education Corporation 2,676.40
SNPS Synopsys, Inc. 2,503.10
SNPS SYNOPSYS INC 2500.00
STGN Stratagene Corporation 2,411.60
SPCHB SPORT CHALET CL-B 2357.50
STGN STRATAGENE CORP 2226.67
BHK BLACKROCK CORE BD TR 1881.43
FDP Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. 1,835.30
HPS JOHN HANCOCK FD III 1675.39
FDP FRESH DEL MONTE PROD 1672.00
AMIE AMBASSADORS INTL I 1619.52
SIFY SIFY LIMITED ADR 1540.00
LEGYF Legacy Hotels REIT 1,421.10
CHXMF Cash Minerals Ltd. 1,293.10
SBMLF Stratabound Minerals Corp. 1,285.70
PGL PEOPLES ENERGY CP 1257.58
PNNW Pennichuck Corporation 1,205.50
EXR EXTRA SPACE STORAGE 1186.67
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) 1,182.30
UEYCF UTS Energy Corporation 1,156.70
ETEC.OB EMTEC INC 1150.00
SPNC Spectranetics Corporation 1,131.00
BDN BRANDYWINE REALTY TR 1099.33
PHXCF Phoenix Canada Oil Company Limited 913.00
EP EL PASO CORPORATION 882.00
GPRE GREEN PLAINS REN ERG 881.25
APYRF Allied Properties Real Estate Investment 872.80
SPNC SPECTRANETICS CP T 845.00
SPA SPARTON CP 840.00
TOPP TOPPS CO INC THE 742.50
CMAQ.OB CHINA MINERAL ACQ 658.75
TCAR.OB TENDERCARE INTL INC 650.00
AATK AMER ACCESS TECH 650.00
FLE FLEETWOOD ENTERPRISE 645.00
AMCS AMICAS INC 632.00
CY CYPRESS SEMICONDUCTR 624.19
HDB HDFC BANK LTD 577.46
WFSM.OB WESTBOROUGH FIN SRVS 571.43
FIX COMFORT SYS USA INC 557.50
NUJ NUVEEN NJ DIV ADV 2 546.90
FBSI FIRST BANCSHARES I 540.00
WXH WINSTON HOTELS 535.42
CELG CELGENE CP 529.88
XNR XANSER CORP 463.08
JHP NUVEEN QLTY PFD 3 458.12
SYMM SYMMETRICOM INC 451.67
BIIB BIOGEN IDEC INC 443.59
SPWR SUNPOWER CORPORATION 442.15
BONT BON TON STORES THE 439.61
WBMD WEBMD HEALTH CORP 437.44
SYMC SYMANTEC CP 434.58
IRIS IRIS INTL INC 432.59
SUG SOUTHERN UNION CO 430.16
TEVA TEVA PHARM INDS AD 416.90
LIHR LIHIR GOLD LTD ADR 416.47
MDZ MDS INC 416.05
BRKS BROOKS AUTOMATION 413.03
IWOV INTERWOVEN INC 412.07
CRL CHARLES RIVER LAB 404.07
NCNC.OB NEW CENTURY CO INC 400.00
BABY NATUS MEDICAL INC 393.33
QUIK QUICKLOGIC CORP 382.22
VSL VIDESH SANCHAR NEW 375.40
PFED PARK BANCORP INC 364.73
SCHS SCHOOL SPECIALTY 363.64
CSPLF CANADA SO PETROLEU 361.67
SEFL.OB SE FINANCIAL CORP PA 349.19
MAA MID AMER APT COMMUN 332.50
GIVN GIVEN IMAGING LTD 318.85
UMC UNITED MICROELECTRON 315.00
KTEC KEY TECHNOLOGY INC 299.51
JDO JED OIL INC 299.21
ECLP ECLIPSYS CORP 295.00
IONA IONA TECHS ADR 294.67
TUNE MICROTUNE INC 291.76

 

[tiznow]

this is a stock screened P/E list

i put in market cap of 10bil+ and P/E of 50+

this is a better list than the above IMO

Symbol Company [up] Market Cap P / E More Info
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 28.49B 60.99 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
AMT AMER TOWER CP 15.27B 202.90 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
BCH BANCO DE CHILE ADS 3.76T 7454.29 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials
BMA BANCO MACRO SA 15.82B 105.62 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials
BSC BEAR STEARNS COS THE 11.20B 54.01 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CP 18.83B 77.96 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
CELG CELGENE CP 22.40B 109.50 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Financials, Analyst Ratings
SID COMPANHIA SIDER ADS 73.25B 51.73 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials
EDN EMPRESA DIST Y COM 18.27B 544.60 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research
FSLR FIRST SOLAR, INC. 13.39B 125.34 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research, Financials, Analyst Ratings
GENZ GENZYME CORPORATION 20.19B 150.34 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
GG GOLDCORP INC 24.90B 89.57 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials, Analyst Ratings
HIT HITACHI LTD ADR 24.21B 81.81 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials
ISRG INTUITIVE SURG INC 11.27B 79.31 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
KGC KINROSS GOLD CP 12.73B 52.96 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials, Analyst Ratings
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP 30.61B 262.81 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
LUK LEUCADIA NATL CP 10.14B 172.00 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials
MON MONSANTO COMPANY 58.30B 51.05 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
UPL ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP 10.58B 51.60 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
UBB UNIBANCO BRASILRS SA 329.29B 182.31 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials
Symbol Company [up] Market Cap P / E More Info
MON MONSANTO COMPANY 58.30B 51.05 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORP 13.61B 51.54 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
PSA PUBLIC STG 12.91B 777.45 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Analyst Ratings
S SPRINT NXTEL CP 27.36B 209.13 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
UPL ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP 10.58B 51.60 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
UBB UNIBANCO BRASILRS SA 329.29B 182.31 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials
UPS UNITED PARCEL SVC 75.13B 170.45 Quote, Chart, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
VMW VMWARE, INC. 23.56B 101.35 Quote, Profile, Reports, Research, Insider, Financials, Analyst Ratings
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LTD 13.19B 63.67 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, Msgs, Financials, Analyst Ratings
YHOO YAHOO INC 39.85B 60.79 Quote, Chart, News, Profile, Reports, Research, SEC, Msgs, Options, Financials, Analyst Ratings

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks guys.

Microcaps aren't exactly what I had in mind. I'll take a look at the site you provided Tiz. I'm sure I'll find a few more gems in there. Thanks.