eh?
well this was just a strange day
currency markets all over the map and acting strange
equities up
but gold and oil getting smacked around with the dollar rally
anyway its probably all just noise long term
til next week enjoy the weekend ya all
we shall see if next week brings an end to the bear shake leg up or it continues a little while longer
currency markets all over the map and acting strange
equities up
but gold and oil getting smacked around with the dollar rally
anyway its probably all just noise long term
til next week enjoy the weekend ya all
we shall see if next week brings an end to the bear shake leg up or it continues a little while longer
nah its what i call a "bear shake" the rallies are sharp in bear markets
its short term noise IMO
the market rallies during 2000-2002 brought about the same sentiment you just spoke of
---------------------------------
also i think the markets are hoping we are past the pain, and that the fed rate cuts start kicking in now
to get the mad credit fun games rolling once again
to that i'll just say good luck
-------------
bottom line bear markets are a roller coaster and play with your emotions....
its short term noise IMO
the market rallies during 2000-2002 brought about the same sentiment you just spoke of
---------------------------------
also i think the markets are hoping we are past the pain, and that the fed rate cuts start kicking in now
to get the mad credit fun games rolling once again
to that i'll just say good luck
-------------
bottom line bear markets are a roller coaster and play with your emotions....
gata just amuzes me with their "gold supression" agenda
even if they are supressing the price (which they might) eventually the markets will play out, intervention only works so long, and the markets ultimately determine the price
DAW and jdog this might be a sign of a top in gold??
even if they are supressing the price (which they might) eventually the markets will play out, intervention only works so long, and the markets ultimately determine the price
DAW and jdog this might be a sign of a top in gold??
just found this on front page of yahoo with a nice photo of houses melting to go along with it to really catch the eye
thinks we might have more rally in store next week :lol:
that said the article is correct
---------------------------------------------------------
Why home prices could drop 25% more on average before the market finally hits bottom
As Washington policymakers struggle to keep the U.S. out of recession, the swirling confusion over the housing market is making their job a lot tougher. Will American consumers keep shopping or be forced to pull back? Will banks lend freely or be hamstrung by mortgage defaults? What are the best policy options right now? Those and other important questions simply can't be answered without a good idea of whether home prices will rise, flatten out, or keep dropping.
Some experts have begun to suggest that a bottom is in sight. Pali Research analyst Stephen East wrote in a research note to his firm's clients on Jan. 25 that "the sun is not shining very brightly, but at least the worst of the storm has likely passed." With optimism budding, Standard & Poor's beaten-down index of homebuilder stocks soared 49% from Jan. 15 through Jan. 29.
MY WORDS: TALK ABOUT A DEAD CAT BOUNCE
But it's considerably more likely that the storm is still gathering force. On Jan. 30 the government said annual economic growth slowed to just 0.6% in the fourth quarter as home construction plunged at a 24% annual rate. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 7.7% in November from the year before, the biggest decline since the index was created in 2000.
And that could be just the start. Brace yourself: Home prices could sink an additional 25% over the next two or three years, returning values to their 2000 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. That's even with the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point rate cut on Jan. 30.
While a 25% decline is unprecedented in modern times, some economists are beginning to talk about it. "We now see potential for another 25% to 30% downside over the next two years," says David A. Rosenberg, North American economist for Merrill Lynch (MER), who until recently had expected a much smaller slide.
Shocking though it might seem, a decline of 25% from here would merely reverse the market's spectacular appreciation during the boom. It would put the national price level right back on its long-term growth trend line, a surprisingly modest 0.4% a year after inflation. There's a recent model for this kind of return to normalcy after the bursting of a financial bubble. The stock market decline that began in 2000 erased most of the gains of the boom of the second half of the 1990s, leaving investors with ordinary-sized returns.
Why might housing prices plunge violently from here? Remember the two powerful forces that pushed them up: lax lending standards and the conviction that housing is a fail-safe investment. Now both are working in reverse, depressing demand for housing faster than homebuilders can rein in supply. By reinstituting safeguards such as down payments and proof of income, lenders have disqualified thousands of potential buyers. And many people who do qualify have lost the desire to buy. "A down market is getting baked into expectations," says Chris Flanagan, head of research in JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) asset-backed securities group. "People say: I'm not buying until prices are lower.'" He predicts prices will fall about 25%, bottoming in 2010.
Nobody can be sure how far prices will decline. Still, if prices drop that much, it could mean big trouble for the U.S. economy, which is already on the brink of recession. It would blow a hole in the balance sheets of banks and households, slicing more than $5 trillion off household wealth. That's roughly the size of the drop in stock market wealth from the peak in early 2000, a big reason for the recession of 2001. Yale economist Robert J. Shiller, a longtime housing bear, points out that a housing decline that started in 1925 and ran until 1932 weakened banks and contributed to the Great Depression, which started in the U.S. in 1929.
can read the rest here
http://quote.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104340/Housing-Meltdown;_ylt=Aq5RD3BuoBVNswiSMzjGsFlO7sMF
thinks we might have more rally in store next week :lol:
that said the article is correct
---------------------------------------------------------
Why home prices could drop 25% more on average before the market finally hits bottom
As Washington policymakers struggle to keep the U.S. out of recession, the swirling confusion over the housing market is making their job a lot tougher. Will American consumers keep shopping or be forced to pull back? Will banks lend freely or be hamstrung by mortgage defaults? What are the best policy options right now? Those and other important questions simply can't be answered without a good idea of whether home prices will rise, flatten out, or keep dropping.
Some experts have begun to suggest that a bottom is in sight. Pali Research analyst Stephen East wrote in a research note to his firm's clients on Jan. 25 that "the sun is not shining very brightly, but at least the worst of the storm has likely passed." With optimism budding, Standard & Poor's beaten-down index of homebuilder stocks soared 49% from Jan. 15 through Jan. 29.
MY WORDS: TALK ABOUT A DEAD CAT BOUNCE
But it's considerably more likely that the storm is still gathering force. On Jan. 30 the government said annual economic growth slowed to just 0.6% in the fourth quarter as home construction plunged at a 24% annual rate. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 7.7% in November from the year before, the biggest decline since the index was created in 2000.
And that could be just the start. Brace yourself: Home prices could sink an additional 25% over the next two or three years, returning values to their 2000 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. That's even with the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point rate cut on Jan. 30.
While a 25% decline is unprecedented in modern times, some economists are beginning to talk about it. "We now see potential for another 25% to 30% downside over the next two years," says David A. Rosenberg, North American economist for Merrill Lynch (MER), who until recently had expected a much smaller slide.
Shocking though it might seem, a decline of 25% from here would merely reverse the market's spectacular appreciation during the boom. It would put the national price level right back on its long-term growth trend line, a surprisingly modest 0.4% a year after inflation. There's a recent model for this kind of return to normalcy after the bursting of a financial bubble. The stock market decline that began in 2000 erased most of the gains of the boom of the second half of the 1990s, leaving investors with ordinary-sized returns.
Why might housing prices plunge violently from here? Remember the two powerful forces that pushed them up: lax lending standards and the conviction that housing is a fail-safe investment. Now both are working in reverse, depressing demand for housing faster than homebuilders can rein in supply. By reinstituting safeguards such as down payments and proof of income, lenders have disqualified thousands of potential buyers. And many people who do qualify have lost the desire to buy. "A down market is getting baked into expectations," says Chris Flanagan, head of research in JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) asset-backed securities group. "People say: I'm not buying until prices are lower.'" He predicts prices will fall about 25%, bottoming in 2010.
Nobody can be sure how far prices will decline. Still, if prices drop that much, it could mean big trouble for the U.S. economy, which is already on the brink of recession. It would blow a hole in the balance sheets of banks and households, slicing more than $5 trillion off household wealth. That's roughly the size of the drop in stock market wealth from the peak in early 2000, a big reason for the recession of 2001. Yale economist Robert J. Shiller, a longtime housing bear, points out that a housing decline that started in 1925 and ran until 1932 weakened banks and contributed to the Great Depression, which started in the U.S. in 1929.
can read the rest here
http://quote.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104340/Housing-Meltdown;_ylt=Aq5RD3BuoBVNswiSMzjGsFlO7sMF
Seeing as the markets were ok this week...a cheery song to
raise the spirits of our resident apocalypse-kooks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YBWxRTRNI&feature=related
enjoy
%^_
raise the spirits of our resident apocalypse-kooks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YBWxRTRNI&feature=related
enjoy
%^_
Tiz, I dont own ccj...sold it a long time ago. I dont really follow ccj, so I dont have much to say about it. I may buy it again someday if the entire sector starts skyrocketing like a few years ago.
Similar to the precious metals stocks I own, I mostly prefer the junior producers/exploration companies instead of major producers.
Jdog must have went to tahoe this weekend to spend some of his stock market gains.
:aktion033
Similar to the precious metals stocks I own, I mostly prefer the junior producers/exploration companies instead of major producers.
Jdog must have went to tahoe this weekend to spend some of his stock market gains.
:aktion033
auto industry in US just a complete mess
--------------------------------------------
Chrysler Supplier Files for Bankruptcy
Saturday February 2, 2:11 pm ET
Chrysler Scrambles to Maintain Inventory of Plastic Parts After Supplier Files for Bankruptcy
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. (AP) -- Chrysler LLC scrambled to maintain its inventory of plastic parts after a supplier filed for bankruptcy protection.
Plastech Engineered Products Inc. apparently failed to negotiate a bailout package with its customers, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Dearborn-based Plastech agreed to supply Chrysler through the weekend, spokeswoman Michele Tinson said.
The bankruptcy filing had not forced Chrysler to shut down any plants, Tinson said. "But it could potentially," she said. "It could impact a number of plants."
Calls to Plastech headquarters were not answered late Friday.
Chrysler was Plastech's fourth-largest customer, The Journal said. The company has 8,000 employees at more than 30 plants in North America.
--------------------------------------------
Chrysler Supplier Files for Bankruptcy
Saturday February 2, 2:11 pm ET
Chrysler Scrambles to Maintain Inventory of Plastic Parts After Supplier Files for Bankruptcy
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. (AP) -- Chrysler LLC scrambled to maintain its inventory of plastic parts after a supplier filed for bankruptcy protection.
Plastech Engineered Products Inc. apparently failed to negotiate a bailout package with its customers, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
Dearborn-based Plastech agreed to supply Chrysler through the weekend, spokeswoman Michele Tinson said.
The bankruptcy filing had not forced Chrysler to shut down any plants, Tinson said. "But it could potentially," she said. "It could impact a number of plants."
Calls to Plastech headquarters were not answered late Friday.
Chrysler was Plastech's fourth-largest customer, The Journal said. The company has 8,000 employees at more than 30 plants in North America.
the bear shakes during 2000-2003
---------------------------------------
barrons says we had 20 different 5%+ rallies in 2000-2003 and the naz had 31 5%+ or more rallies from 2000-2003.
--------------------
on S&P
so far we've had one 8.33% move in late november, and the current one (9.4% so far) in this new bear
i'm gonna eat alot of crow if this turns out not to be a bear
---------------------------------------
barrons says we had 20 different 5%+ rallies in 2000-2003 and the naz had 31 5%+ or more rallies from 2000-2003.
--------------------
on S&P
so far we've had one 8.33% move in late november, and the current one (9.4% so far) in this new bear
i'm gonna eat alot of crow if this turns out not to be a bear
