sell! sell! sell!

[JoeContrarian]

Because it's impossible to predict all of the 'waves'. You're a perma-bear...broken clock syndrome.

Tizdoom, the only people preaching everything is going to hell in a hand basket are gold bugs. Gold bugs are a unique breed because they measure EVERYTHING against this one commodity (talk about losing sight of the "the big picture").

It is pure comedy to read all these rants from 'experts' talking down our fiat currency and rooting for our economy to collapse, given the fact that in the last 40 years, gold prices have been more volatile than pretty much anything else.

Previously, the gold standard was maintained through a fixed-by-law price of gold, which produced all sorts of problems of its own.

So why are kooks like Paul so obsessed with gold and bashing everything non-gold related? Easy. Because they have vested interest in it. Ever since Ron Paul began talking down the dollar, he's netted a 40% ROI -- follow the money.

Not bad for a kook.

 

[tiznow]

i used to be a gold bug when markets were doing well

they outperformed the markets due to print/credit mania

those days are over although i do still hold physical gold as i think it will be fine, gold does well in turbulent times

other commodities overall i'm slightly bearish

and who knows how this bear will play out but we are heading for a bear in my estimation

i also do have cash and some conservative longs i'll look at again 40 years from now....i'm hegded to some extent

but right now i live and die by my shorts

------------

as for gold standard as you said prices were fixed so it wasn't a true gold standard, credit lines were expanded like mad prior to great depression and speculative boom occured

socialists and statists don't like the gold standard because government can't spend beyond its means

hearing a so called conservative speaking out against the gold standard (a true one) is pure and utter comedy in itself

 

[tiznow]

plus if i'm wrong and we do continue to go up from here and this is just a correction

gold and commodities in general will continue to outperform the markets (they are falling less than the markets currently gold holding up well)

that i can guarantee you

we just ran out of bubbles at this point in my estimation, they can cut rates and try to get the credit lines flush again and peoples confidence up but it won't work

hasn't in the past (they did the same thing during 2000-2002) didn't work till 2 years into it, don't see why this time will be any different

 

[JoeContrarian]

Here's a 35 year gold chart:

 

[tiznow]

gold isn't something to hold for your whole life i'm not dumb and i'm not telling anybody to buy up here personally

others on here will, i bought when it was in the 400s and still hold the physical....no miners in my portfolio i used to own quite a bit

gold was in a 20 year bear it was overdue for a bull run

 

[tiznow]

also note on that chart some dates

1980-1982 was a bear in equities

oct 1987 was stock market crash

2000-2002 bear in equities (during this one gold was flat starting to turn the corner)

plus note what the fed did at the time of all 3

lower rates!!

but as bulls will say it'll be different this time

also reason i'm kinda timid on the gold front up here

(err...we recovered from crash after lower rates my bad 1987 kinda wacky event historically

 

[tiznow]

i see 1987 as a bear market that only took an extremely short period of time to complete

we were overvalued and the valuations were taken out with one fell swoop

----------------------------------------

Many people believed the crash should be attributed to the overvalued nature of markets that week. The S&P 500 price earnings ratio, a standard measure of market valuation, had reached 19 by the week of the crash, up from 10 only two years before. A high PE ratio meant that the average price of a U.S. listed stock had expanded much faster than its corresponding earnings. Without fundamental justification to back them up, stock prices had no choice but to tumble. In a survey conducted by Robert Shiller just after the crash, 71.7% of individual investors and 84.3% of institutional investors reported that they thought the market was overpriced prior to the decline.

 

[tiznow]

also people saying that we aren't overvalued right now are on crack regardless of recession

growth is slowing and big caps still in the high teens on average

let me see what average P/E of S&P is right now

12/31/07 it was 19.2

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000\026.pdf

on the above link i think you could easily see us reach the undervalued range with P/Es running in the single digits before its all said and done

we ran up to 43.8 average in 2000 now we'll get a reaction the other direction too it down the road

 

[VaultedTreehouse]

Tiznow,

You talk too much to yourself in this thread. It bogs it down.

 

[tiznow]

great depression started with p/e at 21 or so

interesting chart very neat

ok i'll stop the continual ranting i suppose i spend too much time watching markets as it is right now

thought some of it might be informative (well not all of it obviously the continual bear shake stuff a bit overblown )

 

[Brooklynbomber]

LMFAO!!

Our buddies at GS have pulled a flip-flop

they are now saying gold at $1000 in 2008....maybe as high as $1200-$1400

opps:nohead:

 

[tiznow]

hmm...they calling for recession in q2 or q3 of 2008 and also calling for 1000 physical gold in 2008

fine by me as my holdings will like both, nice to be on the side of smart jews

maybe i'll get cute and long GS during the bear shake :lolBIG:

 

[tiznow]

yeah here's a goldman sachs release

they don't like commodities that are very sensitive to US consumers like me (oil, base metals, for example)

saying gold average 910 in 2008, 870 in 2009

jdog did they up there projections for gold in a matter of days? this was jan 18th

------------------------------


Goldman Bullish on Barrick and Gold Price
posted on: January 18, 2008 | about stocks: ABX
Print Email

With the potential backdrop of a U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs analysts are recommending that investors think defensively when it comes to investing in commodity stocks. They prefer sectors that have little sensitivity to the U.S. consumer, namely agriculture, gold and specialty packaging.

Their absolute top pick in the materials space is Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), which they rate a "buy" with a target of $66 a share. They point out that Barrick continues to unlock value from its merger with Placer Dome Inc., especially on greenfield projects like Cortez, Bald Mountain and Pueblo Viejo. They estimate that Barrick will increase its gold reserves to more than 150 million ounces when the company reports year-end results in February.

"Barrick is the largest gold producer in the world with an expected 2008 production of 8.3 million ounces, and the strongest project pipeline among its precious metal peers, in our view," they wrote in a note to clients.

The analysts are also very bullish on the price of gold. They are calling for average prices of $910 an ounce in 2008 and $870 an ounce in 2009. They also figure there is upside risk to that forecast should there be an extended slowdown in global GDP this year.

They see a 31% upside to the $66 target on Barrick shares. The stock is currently trading at 9.7 times and 7.4 times their 2008 cash flow and EBITDA estimates.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

thats all fucking bullshit tiz...just a head fake, like the "short gold in 2008" call they made last month....also you quoted the wrong article. what i'm talking about just came out.....no link

Barrick is the LAST place you want to be in the gold miners.....however, the rothchilds and also the bush's own a VERY large stake in Barrick, and both own large stakes in GS as well....which is why they are pumping it Im sure

BTW - Barrick claims they are now unhedged, hence the 2007 run-up

what they don't say is they have 9.5 million ounces of gold hedged on 2 mines in ARG that are not even in production yet.....at $404 an ouncehno:

 

[tiznow]

yeah i don't like barrick at all of the miners, i don't like miners in general either

honestly last thing i'm gonna do is follow goldman sachs advice on the gold front

we know how the system hates gold in general

since they were short for so long and now they talking it up gold bulls should be scared IMO

let me see if i can find goldman sachs current position on gold over in the japan you can find some of online somewhere i remember

yeah here is goldmans position over on TOCOM (still short as shit over there)

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

Member Total Net Position 2008/02 2008/04 2008/06 2008/08 2008/10 2008/12
Short Long Short Long Short Long Short Long Short Long Short Long Short Long Short Long

Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. 12,523 78 12,445 0 65 0 109 0 621 0 0 78 594 0 11,134 0

 

[tiznow]

you are absolutely correct, a depression is inevitable at this point. I misspoke

however, there is not a common definition of "depression" that is widely excepted. some say 6 or more quarters of negative GDP, some a 10% unemployment rate.

most people automatically refer to The Great Depression.....but this one is going to be different. It will be hyperinflationary versus deflationary, in part because the US is now a debtor nation. In 1929 we were a creditor nation and also the money supply was severly contracted, in this one it will be enormously expanded. Severe 70's style stagflation is where we are headed the next few years, complete with an energy crisis that makes the 70's look like a picnic

in any event deflation is likely the outcome at some point

jmho of course

so you are saying deflation is down the road but first we have hyperinflationary?

i just don't understand how this can happen right now

i pulled the quote off of prudent bear as the minority of deflationists always fight with inflationists over there

anyway DAW, jdog you got an response to this

i agree it was credit mania/inflationary/print mania the last 5 years no doubt the inflationists were correct during that time frame

but now that the party is stopping i just can't see it

now if we continue expanding our economy and the recent action turns out to be a correction than i expect inflationary pressures to continue to run rampant no doubt

but without credit expansion i just can't see it

-------------------------

"IMHO, the last 5 years were underwritten by the expansion of the collateral base, aka RE. There is no substantive increase in the value of any type of collateral to continue issuing credit against. Residential RE is falling; CRE looks to be hot on its tail. The equity markets are not repeating the 99 tech/telecom bubble. In short, there is no new source of collateral that can be inflated enough to initiate a new round of credit creation.

Even if Bernanke cuts rates to zero percent, something has to be pledged as collateral and someone has to believe that they can make a profit by taking on new debt. If someone can point to a new collateral source and explain how borrowing against it can lead to gain or profit, I will have to re think a few of my beliefs. If not, I will continue to believe that we are on the precipice of another great depression."

 

[Brooklynbomber]

tiz you're like talking to a brick wall.

bottom line is nothing I say or anybody else is going to change your opinion.

not only is the chance of deflation at near zero, but the odds of hyperinflation are at over 95%

we'll find out soon who was right

you guys (deflationists) are on the right track. you know shit is screwed up, understand how we got here for the most part, and you know there is going to be hell to pay, but just lack the basic fundemental knowledge of how to put it all together. (IMHO) - your boy Paul gets it.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

btw I read Lairds stuff all the time,

 

[tiznow]

that's not true i'm an open mind on the inflation/deflation front

i was on the inflation train until recently

during which the economies were booming worldwide, and the GLOBAL stock market bubble was ongoing

explain to me if we are heading in the gutter now

how in the world we are going to inflate away?

who's gonna take on new credit?

everybody is tightening up credit standards, people with bad credit can't get loans, and people with good credit aren't sheep

------------------

now if you are telling me we are not heading into a recession and economies are going to continue to expand albeit at a slower rate or whatever than okay i'm on the inflationary train

bottom line IMO with the way things stand

recession and inflation can not coincide

 

[tiznow]

or better yet where's the next bubble

can't be equities, can't be RE, can't be CC debt, can't be corporate debt/M&A boom (lot of those deals done the past 5 years was on tons of debt), what are they gonna bubble

regardless of what they drop the rates to, who cares if the smart money sees no value out there to take on debt to buy things

i guess they could create bubbles via federal government in housing bailout type stuff possibly?

or maybe the rate cuts somehow get the housing, CC, and/or M&A going again? but i doubt that one