sell! sell! sell!

[Brooklynbomber]

we caught a break yesterday with the markets being closed, or else I think we'd been down 5% too - gave the "fed" a chance to react, and with the .75 cut saved us from a collapse

we are far from out of the woods yet, I think we'll see a the fed funds rate drop to 2% before summer

aapl warning guidance is just the start. you're going to see ALOT of companies reduce guidance and alot miss 4Q earnings, leading to another 5%-10% down...however,the "earnings game" has just begun. 1Q over-reduce guidance and then 2Q you'll see these same companies come in and hit their numbers and the cheerleaders will go nuts and along with loose money markets will have a nice rally....same thing happened last 1Q - all a game

 

[Brooklynbomber]

.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

hi i am new at investing and i was wondering what are good sites for me to start learning and finding out which stocks or funds are best for me. I've already checked out msn and yahoo as a starter anywhere else would be helpful. thanks!

It's already been said, but I'll say it again. Read this entire thread. As I stated in a previous post, this thread has made me more money than all the other threads on this board combined.

 

[tiznow]

aussies first one to respond

friday close aroun 5800

now 5529 up 5.59% on the day

japan opened friday around 13900 now 12911 rebounding 338 on the day

asia not super enthused yet (meaning regaining most of their loses and only being down 1-2% overall like US)

 

[tiznow]

although it does look like those yen printing presses have been put further into high gear since US close

screw helicopter ben

on a global scale fukui (i love that name japans equivilant to fed chief) is a legend in my book

yen carry trade march on!!!

 

[tiznow]

this is about all you need to know about the yen carry trade bubble for those that don't know what i'm talking about

note these remarks were back in june 07 looking at the charts looks like yen bottom was reached back early july/august

and markets themselves peaked out soon after in october

this is a very powerful force behind the global stock market "bubble" in the past 5 years

by the way japan still hasn't budged on rates, and held rates at 0.5% at most recent meeting this week

----------------------------------------

"Mr. Yen" Sakakibara Says Yen Carry Trade Bubble Must End
Increase Decrease

June 22, 2007 (LPAC)--Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on June 21, Eisuke Sakakibara, the former Japanese Ministry of Finance official who is known as "Mr. Yen," said that "Japan's interest rates are absurdly low and creating a carry trade bubble, and this is very dangerous." He added, "The cheapness of the yen has reached absurd levels, and the only cause for that is low interest rates... The Bank of Japan needs to normalize interest rates as quickly as possible." He suggested that the yen interest rates should be increased from the current 0.5 percent to 1.25 percent within the year.

The current Governor of the Bank of Japan, Toshihiko Fukui, has called for raising Japan's interest rates to stop the very real threat that the yen carry trade, in the hands of international hedge fund speculators, could blow up the world financial system. However, at last week's BOJ meeting, Fukui held back on raising rates until later in the year, leading to a further fall in the yen and an increase in the carry trade.

Lyndon LaRouche last week backed Fukui's attack on the hedge funds, but added that it is urgent for Japan to "end the carry trade altogether and raise interest rates to international levels." Continuing, he said that every time Japan postponed raising rates for fear it would undermine the international financial system, that system simply got worse.

 

[tiznow]

yeah on the commodity front base metals still fell in the face of 75 bp cut

gold is its own story though since its considered money and a safe store of value in turbulent times

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The surprise interest rate cut did nothing to boost commodity prices, though. Copper fell to a three-week low despite the cut, as fears over a US recession more than over-shadowed the Fed's decision. Nickel, zinc and lead also fell. Analysts are still counting on strong demand from China and India to offset potential losses from the US if a recession does kick in, but in the short term, commodities are still being hit by general negative sentiment worldwide. Gold, however, bounced back from earlier lows after the Fed's cut.

 

[cussin'it]

If what you predict is coming ends up happening, I have my doubts about gold as well. May be worth taking a second look.

BTW, good day for my favorite Nazcrappy tech....WDC

Round-the-world markets having a good bounce back so far

 

[tiznow]

well gold is kinda finicky as people hoard it in bad times

its not solely a monetary issue in some respects

the other commodities i think will fall in price as the global recession progresses

i hold some physical gold and will throughout the duration of the bear market and maybe even add some if we see a big swoon down in gold prices

as for the miners themselves i don't like them i wanna hold the metal in my hand at this point in time

Also one must realize globally so many companies made money off of high zinc, corn, soybean, copper, oil, you name it

the high prices of commodities helped many companies all over the world and many economies like canada, brazil, austrailia fly sky high, the global economy was in a very symbiotic relationship the last 5 years, once the big dog consumer falls on its face i really don't see how the rest aren't gonna at least catch a cold

 

[cussin'it]

good point, I agree with the miner's take. However, one I bought into wayyyy back in March and recently took my gain was BVN, and they seem to still be the cream o' da crop.

 

[tiznow]

yeah great example with BVN so many south america countries that are booming are dependent on these sky high commodity prices across the board

also if you look in the area of base metals where its much easier to fix the supply side of the equation when prices get high we are already well off the highs and at their peak their gains were more than say oil and gold

alot of um have taken 50% haircuts since their peaks in 06 or 07

------------------------------

copper was sub 1 dollar in 03 peaked out at 3.90 in 06 and now 3.20

aluminum 70 cents in 03, peaked out at 1.40 in 06 and now 1.08

lead was 25 cents in 03, peak out at 1.75 in oct 07 now 1.16

nickel 4 bucks back in 03, peak out at 24 buck in may of 07 now 12.35

zinc 40 cents in 03, peak out 2 bucks in 06, now 1 buck

 

[Romanowski]

whats going on in here

we gonna live another day?

 

[tiznow]

yeah think we got at least another day left in us

 

[tiznow]

alright this is the best headline i've seen in a long time i'm gonna call it a night on the economic front after this one can't top this

hilarious stuff

---------------------------------------------------------

The Fed is on your side :money8::nohead:ope:arty::lol::toast:

The rate cut will help consumers with large home equity credit payments and may help credit card borrowers as well.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street investors didn't exactly celebrate the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut Tuesday, but home owners with expensive lines of credit on their mortgages should jump for joy.

Shortly after the Fed announced a reduction of its federal funds rate to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent, most major banks reduced their prime lending rates by the same amount. Since the Fed rate affects how much consumers pay on credit card debt, home equity lines of credit and auto loans, consumers' monthly debt obligations should slide along with the rate cut.

For home owners with home equity lines of credit, it shouldn't be long before they see lower monthly loan payments.

"That rate will drop three-quarters of a percentage point fairly soon," said Holden Lewis of Bankrate.com. "Probably in about two billing cycles."

The Fed's dramatic rate cut - its largest since 1984 - won't do much to help consumers with their credit card debt, however.

According to Bill Hardekopf, chief executive of LowCards.com, credit card issuers may choose to lower their annual interest rates by three quarters of a point. However, for a balance of $5,000, that amounts to only $3.13 a month.

"That's not enough to make a consumer rich," Hardekopf said.

Hardekopf said he expects most credit card companies to lower their rates, though it's not guaranteed.

For example, after the most recent quarter-point rate cut, in December, Capital One raised most consumer card rates by half a point, expert said.

"The Fed rate cut is not a guarantee that credit card rates will go down," said John Ulzheimer, president of Credit.com Educational Services.

The trickle down impact on car loans and mortgages is less direct, experts said.

Adjustable-rate mortgages are based on a number of variables, including the interbank market rate known as Libor and the Fed funds rate.

"The rate cut may have already been priced in by the lenders," said Ulzheimer. "Though it was a surprise, the rate cut has been discussed for a while."

Of course, there is one piece of bad news for consumers in Tuesday's rate cut. Interest rates for savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market accounts will go down as well.

Said Ulzheimer, "It's 'thank you' on one end, and 'no thank you' on the other end.

 

[hellah10]

woofdaddy... be on meebo at midnight'ish or so

talk to ya then

 

[xpanda]

the FED must trash the dollar and create runaway inflation if it is to stave off the next great depression

now, whether it works or not is debatable, but todays cut was just the tip of the iceberg with what we see in the next 3 months.

Would you mind elaborating on this a bit? Namely, how does trashing the dollar and creating runaway inflation stave off a depression? Assuming that a contraction in monetary policy happens as a result of a dollar crash (or would it?) won't that lead to eventual depreciation, as what happened in the 'other' GD? And wouldn't runaway inflation today make deflation tomorrow that much more dramatic, making a depression more likely, not less?

 

[Brooklynbomber]

Would you mind elaborating on this a bit? Namely, how does trashing the dollar and creating runaway inflation stave off a depression? Assuming that a contraction in monetary policy happens as a result of a dollar crash (or would it?) won't that lead to eventual depreciation, as what happened in the 'other' GD? And wouldn't runaway inflation today make deflation tomorrow that much more dramatic, making a depression more likely, not less?

you are absolutely correct, a depression is inevitable at this point. I misspoke

however, there is not a common definition of "depression" that is widely excepted. some say 6 or more quarters of negative GDP, some a 10% unemployment rate.

most people automatically refer to The Great Depression.....but this one is going to be different. It will be hyperinflationary versus deflationary, in part because the US is now a debtor nation. In 1929 we were a creditor nation and also the money supply was severly contracted, in this one it will be enormously expanded. Severe 70's style stagflation is where we are headed the next few years, complete with an energy crisis that makes the 70's look like a picnic

in any event deflation is likely the outcome at some point

jmho of course

 

[xpanda]

I guess the key then is this: how long will the US continue to print money at such a rapid pace?

This morning's signal would indicate that the Fed plans to lower rates and continue printing with abandon at least in the near term. I'm inclined to think they'll continue to do so until the election, at least. But should the dollar crash (seems inevitable now) and foreign holders start cashing their notes in, they can't possibly keep the presses going, can they? I mean, the domestic market would be flooded further by the influx of foreign currency reserves coming back, no?

(Bear with me: the last time I studied monetary policy was in college, and I'm pretty sure it was of the Keynesian variety. It's starting to hurt my brain, trying to learn 'real' economics, given all the fog and misinformation out there.)

My best guess, with my limited understanding, is that we've got another year or so of crazy inflation, and in a few years, will be facing massive deflation, once this whole thing finally settles.

Now, how to profit from it ...

If one were starting from zero (as in, no debt, but no significant investments to speak of, just CAD$ in the bank) what would you recommend as a course of action over the next two years? Or is that too long a projection?

 

[Brooklynbomber]

I'm sure it was Keynesian economics, that's all they teach, that's one reason why we are facing a crisis:missingte

I think you have a good grasp of where we are headed. The dollar will not go to zero, it will probably continue it's steady drop. I think we'll start to see other countries cutting rates too. It's a very interesting situation with no clear outcome really, except being ugly

being in canada you have the advantage of a strong currency, so I'd be in cash right now and use the next few months to build your portfolio. a lot of the companies that will do well are in your back yard. most of my stuff is not in the US.

I'd do maybe: 25% physical gold krugerand coins

25% energy, mostly includes oil, uranium and NG - especially related service companies

10% alternative energy (love GE)

10-20% cash

the other 20-30% could go a number of diff ways depending on investment time line and risk tolerance, you should have some miners for sure

you will show losses at some point with these stocks and the corrections are gut-wrenching, but those are good sectors to be in now

 

[Brooklynbomber]

forgot to add food. lot of way to plays that. DBA an easy one. most pros rotate in and out of different commodity sectors throughout the year, but still keep core holdings in each

X, here is a good website to check out. this guy manages some money for me so I know he is legit. weekly podcast and guest articles on the upper left are the standouts. super sharp guy and an austrian believer as well

http://www.financialsense.com/index.html