sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

jdog i understand but our economy was still growing

and india and china were expanding at 12-15% clips or whatever

everybody is now showing signs of slowing with US consumption slowing

if you think this is just a little hiccup and that we will continue to grow our economies moving forward than your oil call will most definetely be right

you seem to fail to take the demand side of the equation into consideration

i understand money supply and print mania quite well

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

me thinks people in china and the rest of asia are still going to develop further regardless what happens here in america.

people there arent going back to the dark ages if american consumption falls.

will there be some economic hiccups there? yes, but millions upon millions of chinese are still going to be buying things like refridgerators and cars....things the most of them still dont have today, whether or not people here are bankrupt.

things most americans own and take for granted, most chinese dont own at all today. that IS going to change and if that means oil is going to continue higher well past $100 and overall commodity prices continue higher, then so be it.

FWIW, I tried two times the past 15 minutes shorting FXI, chinese etf and no shares are available.

 

[tiznow]

they won't go to the dark ages i don't think but they are going to keep expanding at astronomical rates either

plus US still consumes like 25% of the world's energy

if we head to recession that's a big part of the energy demand equation regardless of what happens in china/india etc

the problem with china is i don't see them having a strong middle class to fall back on when we fall on our face

plus chinese don't consume like americans to begin with they are very cheap and frugal in general

they will be stuck with too much overcapacity

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

tiz, china doesnt have to continue growing at 10%+ every year to send oil prices further higher and through the roof.

ill post this again......2% of chinese people own an automobile.

oil production isnt increasing today, tomorrow, or this year...actually its decreasing.

any new oil being brought into production is more difficult to refine into things such as gasoline.

edit: im finished here for today. been fun watching today.

 

[tiznow]

well i don't know the overall world production figures but....

look at canada pumping out tar sand oil with prices where they are

if oil goes to 120 the amount of money pumped into canada will continue to balloon

brazil recently found the biggest underwater oil find in a long time (production pretty far away but...)

they will be joining OPEC down the road

here's an article about it

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/11/business/oil.php

Underwater oil discovery to transform Brazil into a major exporter
By Alexei Barrionuevo
Published: January 11, 2008

 

[Brooklynbomber]

you seem to fail to take the demand side of the equation into consideration

i understand money supply and print mania quite well

tiz I understand supply and demand very well, it is the basis for my oil "bullishness" - I believe in peak oil, you do not. end of story

btw I hope you are correct

 

[tiznow]

i believe in peak "cheap" oil

the days of 30-50 dollar oil are probably long gone, unless we hit a depression globally

60-100 range looks like where we will settle going forward IMO

and more and more competition will work its way into the marketplace over time to compete with oil at these prices

 

[tiznow]

also chinese aren't gonna be driving around gas guzzling SUVs like americans were (americans are already trading in their SUVs for more fuel efficient cars with gas prices where they are)

they are going to be using electrical bikes, and hyrbrids and small fuel efficient cars

i read an article about how the V-8 engine is pretty much a goner at this point, high oils prices won't allow it to be feasible in the market place anymore

 

[tiznow]

well markets turned out to be a total bore today

flat lined after the early digestion of the rate cuts

we'll see what tomorrow brings

err...still halfhour left my bad....

AAPL earnings AH

 

[cussin'it]

Dow is trying hard to erase that early 460 loss. Crept down to under a hundred loss. Not bad considering. I feel a good bounce comin tomorrow.

 

[tiznow]

Dow is trying hard to erase that early 460 loss. Crept down to under a hundred loss. Not bad considering. I feel a good bounce comin tomorrow.

pretty pathetic in my book with 75 bp surprise

hope your right i got some more ammo i took off the table last week and today to hopefully short at better prices

%^_

 

[cussin'it]

Vix is gonna continue to be high, that's for sure.

Market didn't know about the surprise until after it opened. Everyone was poised to mirror the bloodbath on Monday. Bunch of sell orders put in Monday. I put in one myself.

 

[tiznow]

the problem we have going forward is if we don't bounce from here

than the panic really sets in i think

as i think everybody in wait and see mode right now following the fed's panic 75 bp cut (including me)

if we keep chuncking down 1-2% a day people will start getting very skiddish mentally i would think

i'm almost certain there are alot of bulls out there right now praying for a massive bear shake so they can sell at better prices...as well as bears like me taking some of their short ammo off the table hoping for better prices

we'll see if aapl can give the markets a boost 1.62 a share on 9.47 bil revenue the estimates for q4

 

[tiznow]

bearish close

 

[cussin'it]

Yup

Tomorrow gonna be another roller-coaster.

Dow off 15.5% from the high in Oct. Ouch.

 

[cussin'it]

On the lighter side: Home Depot up 7% today!!

Hanging by a thread, IMO.

 

[tiznow]

Texas Instruments , the world's largest manufacturer of chips for mobile devices, is forecast to report a profit of 52 cents a share on $3.58 billion in revenue.

TI on deck in AH too

 

[tiznow]

On the lighter side: Home Depot up 7% today!!

Hanging by a thread, IMO.

yeah that's what makes me think something is up

the big bearish stocks that have led us down all were given a huge good bear shake today but markets didn't budge (also meaning alot of bears are covering)

homebuilders flew, CFC flew, HD flew etc

bears are good for the markets as they a skiddish bunch and they give the markets a bid (when they have to buy it back)

markets crash or fall hard because there is no underlying bid/buyer

 

[tiznow]

petsmart ramped 6.90% today

than gave a q4 warning in AH

giving back most of those gains so far

"We experienced relatively weak sales during the later half of November and the majority of December in what we believe was a challenging consumer environment."

----------------------------------------------

6:11 ACF AmeriCredit misses by $0.41, reports revs in-line; guides FY08 EPS below consensus (10.28 -0.17)

Reports Q2 (Dec) loss of $0.17 per share, $0.41 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.24; revenues rose 13.5% year/year to $653.3 mln vs the $652.6 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.35-1.55, down from $2.30-2.50 vs. $1.74 consensus. FY08 originations target reduced to $6.5-$7.0 bln. Provision for loan losses as a percent of average receivables of between 5.8% and 6.3%.

---------------------------------------------

volume today was 6.3 billion WOWZERS

---------------

 

[joelatti]

Apple Earnings Up Biggggg....BUT warning on second Q???

STOCK IS DOWN AH