sell! sell! sell!

[PatsFan1283]

BTC another huge sign of froth. No intrinsic value whatsoever.

Once people lose their jobs or need a few extra bucks they're gonna sell that shit for USD and it is going to crash. Who knows when though.

I said it feels like '07 like a month ago, still feels like '07. Think this probably goes on another year or two.

Crash will likely be ugly though depending on how much the gov't tries to fight it. Even housing bubble only had a few years of low interest rates and was only a 4-5 year buildup. We're talking almost a decade of low rates and bubble buildup now.

 

[tiznow]

Mainly Asians pumping up bitcoins as large majority of transactions there.. billions of people and only 21 mil fixed supply.. cryptocurrencies definitely have a place in the future..

I'm more intrigued by ether for the long term.. seems way more funtional..

who knows when current everything bubble ends.. new auto bubble already starting popping which was a significant part of latest bubble.. commercial real estate another huge bubble and brick and mortar retailers getting mauled.. the cracks are forming.. have a hard time seeing it lasting much longer but who knows timing always the challenge..

 

[tiznow]

[h=1]http://time.com/4709783/federal-reserve-bad-for-america/


The Fed Still Has On Its Beer Goggles[/h]Coulda, shoulda, woulda. How different would the world we live in today be had the Federal Reserve shown restraint and practiced self-control in the current economic recovery? Where would the stock market be if Fed officials had not placated investors every time they threw a temper tantrum, demanding more stimulus?
We will, of course, never know the answers to these questions. But we can hope that the next generation of Fed leaders does have the wisdom and courage to push back against the market’s demands in favor of fostering long-term stability and economic growth.
Soon after ringing in 2014, a hilarious column by one of my closest friends, market analyst Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group, made me laugh out loud.
I forwarded “Beer Goggles” to Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher, who loved it when I shot great metaphors his way.
Not long afterwards, Fisher quoted Boockvar, giving what would become his most famous speech: “QE puts beer goggles on investors by creating a line of sight where everything looks good.”
For his “wine and martini” audience, the National Association of Corporate Directors, Fisher defined the term “beer goggles,” described in the Urban Dictionary as the effect that alcohol has in rendering a person alluring who one would ordinarily regard as unattractive.
“Things often look better when one is under the influence of free-flowing liquidity,” Fisher said. “This is one reason why William McChesney Martin, the longest-serving Fed chairman in our institution’s 100-year history, famously said that the Fed’s job is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”
Where are we now? Punch bowl, beer goggles. Different eras, same hangover.
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Commercial real estate and bonds are more overvalued than at any time in history and stocks are trading at their priciest level save one period, the late 1990s before the dotcom implosion. The beer goggles, it would seem, have blinded investors to the bubble wrap that’s enveloped their portfolios.
There are a few brave souls at the Fed who have raised a red flag. On March 22[SUP]nd[/SUP], Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren warned, “…we must acknowledge that the commercial real estate sector has the potential to amplify whatever problems may emerge when we at some point face an economic downturn.”
Wiser words, especially given so few who recall that it was not the decline in oil prices that made the late 1980s such a painful period for the economy, but rather the crash in commercial real estate the energy crunch catalyzed.
Underlying the multiple overheating markets is a persistent underappreciation of financial instability among Fed policymakers. The institution, overladen as it is with PhD economists, has yet to revisit the models that drive its setting of interest rate policy. Had the Fed’s inflation metrics taken into account runaway stock prices in the late 1990s and skyrocketing home prices in the early 2000s, it’s likely they would have intervened to tighten financial conditions much sooner than they did.
Revisiting the wisdom of former Fed chair McChesney Martin is useful:

The danger with these econometricians is they don’t know their own limitations, and they have a far greater sense of confidence in their analyses than I have found to be warranted. Such people are not dangerous to me because I understand their limitations.
They are, however, dangerous to people like you and the politicians because you don’t know their limitations, and you are impressed and confused by the elaborate models and mathematics. The flaws in these analyses are almost always embedded in the assumptions on which they are based. And that is where broader wisdom is required, a wisdom that these mathematicians generally do not have.
​

You always want these technical experts on tap in positions like this, but never on top.
The hope is that President Donald Trump heeds McChesney Martin’s 1970s-era wisdom, that he respects the wishes of those who originally envisioned the Fed as an appreciably more intellectually diverse entity. After all, the original 1913 Federal Reserve Act requires the president to appoint leaders across a diversity of industries.
That is certainly not the case today. Of the 17 leaders on the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates, 10 are PhD economists and two are lawyers. Few would dispute this makeup is the antithesis of "diversity."
President Trump has few opportunities to make his mark, unheeded by others’ influence. The choice of the Fed’s future leaders is a rare and exceptional place for him to leave his mark to the benefit of generations of Americans to come.
Adapted from FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America by Danielle DiMartino Booth, with permission from Portfolio, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House LLC. Copyright © Money Strong LLC, 2017.
DiMartino Booth spent nine years as analyst with the Federal Reserve of Dallas. She is the founder of Money Strong.

 

[tiznow]

[h=1]Foreign Investors Pile into US Commercial Real-Estate Bubble[/h][h=2]by Wolf Richter • Mar 14, 2017[/h]Wolf RichterMar 14, 2017
[h=3]With impeccable timing, after a blistering 7-year price boom.[/h]2016 might later be called the peak year in terms of commercial real estate, or even the post-peak year, depending on the metric. Overall office sales in 2016 fell 7% from 2015, to $140.5 billion, according to JLL research cited by CommercialCafé, a sister company Yardi Matrix. And leasing activity was hampered by office tenants that were “reluctant to make any major moves pending the conclusion of the presidential election.”
But graciously, foreign investors jumped in with both feet to help out. The report by CommercialCafé:

[T]he market has become a haven for offshore investors, who are pumping record amounts of capital into US office assets, especially in primary urban cores. According to JLL research, foreign office investment surpassed $20 billion in 2016, accounting for 16% of the overall acquisition volume.And while, historically, Canadians have been the most active foreign players on the market, Asian and German investors are now stealing the spotlight.
​

Of the 50 largest office deals that closed in the US in 2016 – the trophies that get global attention – offshore buyers accounted for 43%! And those from Asia alone accounted for 16%:

• Mixed foreign and US: 9 deals for $7.1 billion, 19% of total
• Asian: 8 deals for $6.0 billion, 16% of total
• European: 5 deals for $2.3 billion, 6% of total
• Canadian: 1 deal for $914 million, 2% of total

Notable purchases by foreign entities included China Life’s $1.64 billion purchase of 1285 Avenue of the Americas in New York, in a joint venture with RXR Realty (New York); and Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s $1.15 billion acquisition of 1095 Avenue of the Americas.


[h=3]So how is their market timing?[/h]The Greenstreet Property Price Index in February was flat for the fourth month in a row. You have to go back to the early 2000s to find a flat spot this long. During the Financial Crisis it peaked, and without dilly-dallying around, it plunged, and then, fired up with the Fed’s free money, it soared. But this time, there is no crisis. It just hit the ceiling.
Year-over-year in February, the index rose only 2%, not even keeping up with consumer price inflation, a bitter disappointment after nearly eight years of a blistering boom during which the index soared 107%:

As the chart shows, CRE is highly cyclical. Even the Fed, which rarely worries about asset bubbles and has a passion for inflating them, is officially worried about the CRE bubble and what its implosion might do to the lenders. Its efforts to make monetary policy less accommodative are in part targeting the CRE price bubble. So it is unlikely that the plateau of the past four months will just remain a plateau.
The biggest culprit was the apartment segment. The sub-index fell 3% in February and is down 4% from a year ago. The office sector still rose 2% for the month and 5% year-over-year. Self-storage which had been white hot, having surged nearly 160% since the trough in 2009, declined in February for the first time since that trough, but was still up 8% year-over-year.
The remaining segments – industrial, mall, strip retail, health care, and lodging – were essentially flat year-over year, except malls where the index still eked out a gain of 3%, despite the store-closing and bankruptcy turmoil taking over the brick-and-mortar retail industry.
Commercial real estate loans have not yet seen any such plateau, and leverage has continued to soar, even as valuations have hit the ceiling, and even as transaction volume declined last year. In February, commercial real estate loans at all US commercial banks increased once again, to hit a new all-time record of $1.99 trillion:

So thank you, foreign buyers, for stepping in at these red-hot prices when we need help the most. But foreign buyers were obviously not the only ones still buying.
The largest office building transaction was the $1.93 billion purchase of the AXA Equitable Center at 787 Seventh Avenue in Manhattan, by CalPERS in California, the largest public pension fund in the US. The deal was one of CalPERS’ largest ever investments. It closed in January 2016, before the dark clouds had started to waft over CRE. AXA Financial was the seller.
CalPERS is counting on 7% annual returns every year, for all years to come, and even then it is woefully underfunded. So it’s going out on a thin limb to get those returns, and a glitzy office complex, acquired at peak dollars after seven years of booming prices, is one of its efforts in that direction.
And borrowing money to fund these transactions is going to get more expensive, which makes the equation tougher to solve for potential buyers. This is an issue for commercial as well as for residential real estate. “Many fear the Fed is behind the curve. The market is even further behind: This is clearly a dangerous situation.” Read… Bond “Carnage” hits Mortgage Rates, Aims at Housing Bubble 2

 

[PatsFan1283]

With the retail thing, I could see that collapse being a bit overrated.

A lot of it depends what the reason is. Are those stores struggling because the economy is slowing or just because of other competitors beating them? If it's just the second part then it might not be that big of a deal.

And I'm not sure a few malls going out of business would be the shoe dropping on our entire economy.


BTG since I bought went from 2.92 to 2.16 now back to 2.50. Man, this thing is a fun sweat atleast.

 

[tiznow]

[h=1]Move Over Bitcoin, CME Group Will Offer Real Digital Gold[/h]DistributedMay 11, 2017, 03:01:44 PM EDT
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Because of its scarcity, portability, divisibility and current valuation, many people are calling bitcoin the modern "digital gold." And like gold, bitcoin seems to be establishing itself as a popular store of value.
But now CME Group, one of the world's largest providers of gold futures contracts, wants to bring real, physical gold to a blockchain-based asset, and it has landed a big partnership with the U.K.'s Royal Mint.
By any standard, CME Group is a juggernaut in the world of high finance. Handling approximately $1 quadrillion worth of derivatives contracts annually, it is an influential player in the global gold market. And having roots in commodity trading since 1898, it is no stranger to the challenges of an evolving marketplace. Which is why the company has now set its sights on blockchain technology.
According to a blog post by Sandra Ro, CME Group's head of digitization, the new asset will be a token known as RMG (Royal Mint Gold), and backed by physical gold in the Royal Mint vaults. Currently being tested for security and speed, RMG will allow instant transfers of gold to anyone anywhere in the world. And, Ro insists, it will bring a new era of accountability and gold-trading standards, saying, "There is no rehypothecation, there is no lending on that gold, and there will be enough physical gold to represent all the RMGs that are issued." With an initial launch planned for summer of this year, The Royal Mint plans to back the token with up to $1 billion in physical gold bullion.
The project is similar to one being developed by Digix, a Singapore-based company that is creating a token backed by physical gold stored in Singaporean vaults. Digix's DGX token will exist on the Ethereum blockchain, with 1 DGX representing 1 gram of physical gold. The big difference here is that Ethereum is an open, permissionless platform, so that anyone can trade DGX, while RMG will exist on a private blockchain for institutional clients. And while Digix may not be as well-funded as CME Group, the company is flush with cash. Having raised 465,000 ETH in its initial coin offering (and now 465,000 ETC as well), the company is sitting on more than $30,000,000 in liquid digital assets.
Another big difference between DGX and RMG is that RMG will be traded among licensed dealers, who will then try to sell it to customers, likely charging a premium for profit. DGX, on the other hand, will be directly exchanged P2P, cutting out the need for middlemen. This is a textbook example of blockchains' ability to disrupt traditional markets - why pay a dealer for RMG when DGX is traded freely? In an attempt to level the playing field, RMG will have no storage fees, while DGX will have storage fees built into the token's code.
As blockchain technology progresses, we can expect to see a much bigger push toward the tokenization of assets. In the future, we will see silver, diamonds, our homes, our cars and even ourselves as digital tokens. The implications for streamlining commodity trade have yet to be fully grasped, but traditional players are moving fast to adapt, or face extinction. Now we are seeing the very beginning of asset tokenization, and gold will make a great test case for blockchain commodity trade.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc

 

[eek.]

BTC another huge sign of froth. No intrinsic value whatsoever.

Completely secure from government interference. Anonymous. Untraceable.
Can carry 10 million dollars on a USB stick (or 100 million).
Can upload an encrypted file worth 10 million dollars to the net, fly from country A to country B and pick it up

When you're rich you have "where to stash my cash" problems
BTC is like an anonymous untraceable Swiss bank account

In a world where everyone from our politicians to our gangsters are corrupt BTC have great intrinsic value

 

[tiznow]

Bitcoin isn't completely anonymous and untraceable..

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/is-bitcoin-anonymous-a-complete-beginner-s-guide-1447875283/

i'll just never be a fan personally cause it's just digits and has limited functionality ... that said I am coming around on crypto/blockchain stuff and really think the ethereum platform is the future..

 

[tiznow]

Like the above article explains using the ethereum platform they are going to create digital/blockchain gold.. so u can hold digits backed by gold in a vault on a USB vs Bitcoin which is just digits backed by nothing but faith

 

[tiznow]

 

[tiznow]

Dubai getting ahead of everybody looking to use blockchain to create a smart city..

 

[tiznow]

Russians and saudi wanna do everything they can to try to keep oil above 45.. 9 month extension on output deal..

-----

really kicking myself hard I didn't look into crypto/ethereum sooner .. have strong feeling it will pass Bitcoin in total market value (ethereum adding 15 mil coins a year so inflation rate slows with time) with time..

 

[tiznow]

Ny fed manufacturing index -1 in may.. first negative in 7 months expected +7

 

[tiznow]

Housing starts -2.6%.. building permits -2.5%

trump comey now leaking to Russians so administration gonna be constantly defending his f-ups vs pushing his cut tax and debt stuff

markets yawn.. top of cycles drive me insane

 

[tiznow]

Market drops a whopping .2% when McConnell says any tax reform can't add to deficit.. so much for the cut taxes and debt like crazy dreams..

------

[h=1]onnell Calls for Revenue-Neutral Tax Plan, at Odds With Trump[/h]May 16, 2017, 9:41 AM EDT

• Border-adjusted tax faces ‘rather bleak’ Senate prospects
  
• GOP Senate leader says he won’t put a deadline on tax bill

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that any tax overhaul can’t add to the growing U.S. budget deficit, a position that places him at odds with President Donald Trump, who has called for a significant tax cut.
McConnell said in an interview Tuesday with Bloomberg News that the nation’s “alarming” debt requires an approach that would balance tax cuts with new sources of revenue to avoid changing overall government receipts.
“It will have to be revenue-neutral,” he said. “We have a $21 trillion debt.”


In an interview with The Economist that was published last week, Trump said “it is OK” if tax legislation increases the deficit in the short term in order to “prime the pump” for economic growth.
The Kentucky Republican didn’t commit to completing tax legislation this year, but said he and other congressional leaders have begun regular meetings with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, on potential legislation.
“I’m confident we can get it done,” he said. “I’m not going to put a deadline on it.”
McConnell said the lack of Democratic support for a Republican tax package requires him to use budget rules that require revenue neutrality in exchange for pushing through permanent tax changes with only 50 votes. The GOP controls only 52 of the chamber’s 100 seats.
[h=3]‘Rather Bleak’[/h]One potential revenue-raiser, a border-adjusted tax proposed by House Speaker Paul Ryan, faces a dim outlook in the Senate, McConnell said. “It’s a statement of the obvious that the prospects of that would be rather bleak,” he said.



Ryan has proposed to replace the existing corporate income tax with a 20 percent levy on U.S. companies’ domestic sales and imports. Exports would be excluded. The proposal is estimated to raise more than $1 trillion over a decade. But it has drawn opposition from retailers, oil refiners and other industries that rely on imports. Leaders of those businesses say the tax would raise consumer prices on basic items.
The tax’s proponents argue that it would result in a strengthening dollar, evening out the tax’s effect on prices over time. But some economists question whether exchange rates would react predictably.
“The critics say it’s too risky, so you could blow up the economy in the process,” McConnell said. He declined to give his own view of the measure.
Meanwhile, McConnell said he’s taking part in ongoing meetings with Mnuchin, Cohn, Ryan and Republican leaders of tax-writing committees. They’re seeking to agree on a single approach to a tax overhaul before proceeding. An initial meeting took place a few weeks ago, he said.
“We thought that would be a good way to begin would be for us to reach some kind of agreement on what we’re for, rather than having a whole lot of different versions,” McConnell said.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

 

[PatsFan1283]

I'm sure they will find their way around to debting eventually. Too easy to do so and too hard not to.

More fiscap responsibility caps metals and BTG upside though.

 

[tiznow]

Dancing around 2400 s&p continues..

 

[tiznow]

F cutting 10% of workforce now that auto bubble has burst.. more to come as it ripples through the supply chain..

 

[eek.]

Like the above article explains using the ethereum platform they are going to create digital/blockchain gold.. so u can hold digits backed by gold in a vault on a USB vs Bitcoin which is just digits backed by nothing but faith

blockchain gold, lol
Just another route for the corporate whores to stiff people, and the government can pull the whole ballgame down in a heartbeat.
No doubt lots of fellow corporate entities will buy them, thereby "giving them value"

Bitcoins are valuable because the government can't touch them and the corporate sociopaths don't control them

 

[eek.]

Who controls the blockchain? Them
Can anyone mine coins? No, only them.

It's nothing more than an attempt to preserve the control of corporate interests, as opposed to a proper libertarian blockchain